Why is Obama sinking like a rock?

[°Leprechaun]

In a close election, if Obama wins every red state on this map he wins 266 e votes.
Obviously we can see that the three yellow states will be critical.

[°Leprechaun]

Here is a possible tie, but 1 electoral vote from NE would break it in Obama's favor:

You could also switch NH & NM for an Obama win. The House would probably go for the Republican if there is a tie, while the Senate would go Democrat. We would have a split, with a Republican President and a Democrat VP.