Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 04, 2016, 07:20:15 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Presidential Election Process (Moderator: muon2)
| | |-+  How to win with 22.875% of the vote, with no third parties
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: How to win with 22.875% of the vote, with no third parties  (Read 16142 times)
Хahar 🤔
Xahar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 39293
Bangladesh


View Profile
« on: December 28, 2007, 07:48:51 pm »
Ignore



If a candidate got 50% of the vote in all the green states, and 0% in all the gray states, he would win with 22.875% of the vote and 279 EVs. That's the smallest it can get without 3rd parties, I think.
Logged

Update reading list

The idea of parodying the preceding Atlasian's postings is laughable, of course, but not for reasons one might expect.
Verily
Cuivienen
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16749


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

View Profile
« Reply #1 on: December 28, 2007, 08:02:17 pm »
Ignore

I thought the solution was almost the opposite; 50% in all of the grey states except Arizona, Virginia, and either Illinois or Pennsylvania and 0% in all of the green states except New Jersey and Ohio, which gives 270 EVs.

Although perhaps you are accounting for post-2000 population growth/shifts while I am not.
« Last Edit: December 28, 2007, 08:04:50 pm by Verily »Logged
Хahar 🤔
Xahar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 39293
Bangladesh


View Profile
« Reply #2 on: December 28, 2007, 08:46:11 pm »
Ignore

I used voters/EV, rather than plain EVs.
Logged

Update reading list

The idea of parodying the preceding Atlasian's postings is laughable, of course, but not for reasons one might expect.
muon2
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11936


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: December 28, 2007, 09:45:03 pm »

I also used votes/ev from 2004 and can get to 21.67%, with a 270 vote win.


Logged

minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58620
India


View Profile
« Reply #4 on: December 29, 2007, 08:01:17 am »
Ignore

Uh... what turnout assumptions are all of you using?



If a single person shows up to vote in all the states marked in grey, and votes for me, and every registered voter in the states marked in green votes a million times, and votes for my cat, I win with 0.00% of the vote.
Logged

If I'm shown as having been active here recently it's either because I've been using the gallery, because I've been using the search engine looking up something from way back, or because I've been reading the most excellent UK by-elections thread again.
mypalfish_
Bono
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11694
United Kingdom
View Profile
« Reply #5 on: December 29, 2007, 08:26:38 am »
Ignore

Uh... what turnout assumptions are all of you using?



If a single person shows up to vote in all the states marked in grey, and votes for me, and every registered voter in the states marked in green votes a million times, and votes for my cat, I win with 0.00% of the vote.

No, you don't because you're not an American born older than 35. Tongue
Logged

"The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed – and hence clamorous to be led to safety – by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary." – H.L. Mencken

NO, I don't want to go back to Fantasy Elections.
muon2
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11936


View Profile
« Reply #6 on: December 29, 2007, 11:55:34 am »

Uh... what turnout assumptions are all of you using?


I assume that everyone that voted in 2004 does so for this exercise. I used the vote totals for each state, then calculated the votes per ev for each state. I sorted this list on ev/state, with WI first at 299,701 and DC last at 75,862.

To build the list I started removing states with the largest number votes per ev from the top of the list. The order removed was: WI, MI, MN, FL, OH, PA, OR, WA, IL, MO, VA, MA, NJ, MD, NY, CO, NC. At that point I had 278 ev. CA was next so it couldn't be removed and then came CT and KY. KY was the biggest vote total that could be removed and keep enough evs to win.

I also used votes/ev from 2004 and can get to 21.67%, with a 270 vote win.



Logged

minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58620
India


View Profile
« Reply #7 on: December 29, 2007, 12:04:32 pm »
Ignore

Uh... what turnout assumptions are all of you using?



If a single person shows up to vote in all the states marked in grey, and votes for me, and every registered voter in the states marked in green votes a million times, and votes for my cat, I win with 0.00% of the vote.

No, you don't because you're not an American born older than 35. Tongue
You're just jealous because you're not as popular with voters as my cat. Tongue
Logged

If I'm shown as having been active here recently it's either because I've been using the gallery, because I've been using the search engine looking up something from way back, or because I've been reading the most excellent UK by-elections thread again.
True Democrat
true democrat
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7396
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.10, S: -2.87

View Profile
« Reply #8 on: January 02, 2008, 08:07:07 pm »
Ignore

Technically, a person would win with 11 votes, if only one person voted in the eleven most populous states.
Logged

Michael Bloomberg for President.



Lol Winfield.  This quote is from a thread entitled "what do the following proceed to do if they are not nominated?"
Romney - President of Harvard
Хahar 🤔
Xahar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 39293
Bangladesh


View Profile
« Reply #9 on: January 02, 2008, 10:26:33 pm »
Ignore

Technically, a person would win with 11 votes, if only one person voted in the eleven most populous states.

Well, my model assumed 100% turnout (of everyone; not just registered voters).
Logged

Update reading list

The idea of parodying the preceding Atlasian's postings is laughable, of course, but not for reasons one might expect.
muon2
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11936


View Profile
« Reply #10 on: January 02, 2008, 11:25:32 pm »

Technically, a person would win with 11 votes, if only one person voted in the eleven most populous states.

Well, my model assumed 100% turnout (of everyone; not just registered voters).

That's important since the turnout varies quite a bit from state to state.
Logged

Platypus
hughento
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21564
Australia


View Profile
« Reply #11 on: January 03, 2008, 05:25:47 am »
Ignore

well, Bush 'won' with under 1/4 of the potential vote...
Logged
jimrtex
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7666
France


View Profile
« Reply #12 on: January 11, 2008, 01:05:49 am »
Ignore



If a candidate got 50% of the vote in all the green states, and 0% in all the gray states, he would win with 22.875% of the vote and 279 EVs. That's the smallest it can get without 3rd parties, I think.
If a candidate can get 50% of the vote in DC and Idaho, while getting none of the votes in Maryland and Oregon, he deserves to win.
Logged
Lief 🐋
Lief
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 40505
Dominica


View Profile
« Reply #13 on: January 14, 2008, 08:53:11 pm »
Ignore

well, Bush 'won' with under 1/4 of the potential vote...

Good point.  In fact, Reagan was the last president to recieve over 1/3 of the potential vote.
Has any President ever won 1/2 or more of the potential vote? William McKinley maybe.
Logged

Хahar 🤔
Xahar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 39293
Bangladesh


View Profile
« Reply #14 on: January 14, 2008, 08:59:18 pm »
Ignore

well, Bush 'won' with under 1/4 of the potential vote...

Good point.  In fact, Reagan was the last president to recieve over 1/3 of the potential vote.
Has any President ever won 1/2 or more of the potential vote? William McKinley maybe.

Monroe?
Logged

Update reading list

The idea of parodying the preceding Atlasian's postings is laughable, of course, but not for reasons one might expect.
memphis
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16030


View Profile
« Reply #15 on: September 18, 2008, 10:02:38 pm »
Ignore



If a candidate got 50% of the vote in all the green states, and 0% in all the gray states, he would win with 22.875% of the vote and 279 EVs. That's the smallest it can get without 3rd parties, I think.

You don't need 279. Dump whichever 9 EV state has the highest population.
Logged

I cannot do anything good under my own power. 
I don't want my women talking to people
Smid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6092
Australia


View Profile
« Reply #16 on: September 18, 2008, 10:11:44 pm »
Ignore



If a candidate got 50% of the vote in all the green states, and 0% in all the gray states, he would win with 22.875% of the vote and 279 EVs. That's the smallest it can get without 3rd parties, I think.

You don't need 279. Dump whichever 9 EV state has the highest population turnout.
Logged
Nym90
nym90
Modadmin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16080
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -2.96

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #17 on: September 22, 2008, 10:06:55 am »
Ignore



If a candidate got 50% of the vote in all the green states, and 0% in all the gray states, he would win with 22.875% of the vote and 279 EVs. That's the smallest it can get without 3rd parties, I think.

You don't need 279. Dump whichever 9 EV state has the highest population turnout.

Except you may notice there aren't any gray states with 9 or fewer EVs.

Arizona could be dumped if the candidate in question can count on the House to vote him into office.
Logged
minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58620
India


View Profile
« Reply #18 on: September 29, 2008, 04:43:49 am »
Ignore



If a candidate got 50% of the vote in all the green states, and 0% in all the gray states, he would win with 22.875% of the vote and 279 EVs. That's the smallest it can get without 3rd parties, I think.

You don't need 279. Dump whichever 9 EV state has the highest population turnout.

Except you may notice there aren't any gray states with 9 or fewer EVs.

Arizona could be dumped if the candidate in question can count on the House to vote him into office.
He's proposing to win with the Green states.
Logged

If I'm shown as having been active here recently it's either because I've been using the gallery, because I've been using the search engine looking up something from way back, or because I've been reading the most excellent UK by-elections thread again.
Хahar 🤔
Xahar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 39293
Bangladesh


View Profile
« Reply #19 on: September 29, 2008, 11:24:29 pm »
Ignore

I can't believe this thread is still at the top.
Logged

Update reading list

The idea of parodying the preceding Atlasian's postings is laughable, of course, but not for reasons one might expect.
allnjhaugh
Rookie
*
Posts: 26
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.55, S: -0.87

View Profile
« Reply #20 on: August 12, 2011, 06:57:44 pm »
Ignore

Uh... what turnout assumptions are all of you using?

If a single person shows up to vote in all the states marked in grey, and votes for me, and every registered voter in the states marked in green votes a million times, and votes for my cat, I win with 0.00% of the vote.
No, you would have 100% of the vote, but about 0.0001% of the electorate.
Logged

Remember, this is a BIG effing deal. -Joe Biden
Jante's Law Revivalist
Antonio V
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 42191
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -4.87

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #21 on: August 13, 2011, 04:58:36 am »
Ignore

Well, for a bump, that's a bump. Tongue
Logged


"The major political task that we face in the next five months is to make certain that Donald [Drumpf] is defeated and defeated badly."

Bernie Sanders, 06/14/2016
minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58620
India


View Profile
« Reply #22 on: August 16, 2011, 01:07:21 pm »
Ignore

Well, for a bump, that's a bump. Tongue
A bad reading comprehension bump, too.
Logged

If I'm shown as having been active here recently it's either because I've been using the gallery, because I've been using the search engine looking up something from way back, or because I've been reading the most excellent UK by-elections thread again.
Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8215
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -1.91

View Profile WWW
« Reply #23 on: August 16, 2011, 08:26:23 pm »
Ignore

If everyone but one person moved out of the other 49 states, and all 7 billion people on the earth moved to Wyoming, and, cloned themselves 100,000 times each...
Logged

TEDDY - ARKANSAS - IDS - Liberal Whip



Note to self: use brain more.
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines