What Wisconsin Senators will be bounced in the recalls?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

info here

[ag]

If I had to bet, I'd say Kapanke and Hopper will be gone, w/ Hasdorf and Holperin next likeliest. In any case, I'd expect the state Senate to stay Republican - by a single vote.

[cinyc]

None from either party.  Both bases will turn out and cancel each other out.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

None from either party.  Both bases will turn out and cancel each other out.

In Kapaneke's seat that equals death for him. He doesn't have enough of a base in that district. Hopper also seems doomed due to his personal issues.

[Napoleon]

Kapanke and Hopper are certainly gone. Holperin and Olson are outside possibilities.

[cinyc]

None from either party.  Both bases will turn out and cancel each other out.

In Kapaneke's seat that equals death for him. He doesn't have enough of a base in that district. Hopper also seems doomed due to his personal issues.

Both had enough of a base to win once - in a terrible year for Republicans.  It can easily happen again.

[Smash255]

None from either party.  Both bases will turn out and cancel each other out.

In Kapaneke's seat that equals death for him. He doesn't have enough of a base in that district. Hopper also seems doomed due to his personal issues.

Both had enough of a base to win once - in a terrible year for Republicans.  It can easily happen again.

Kapanake's district is just too Democratic to be able to pull it off again considering the increasing polarization.  Hopper is going up against the same opponent he had last time around, in which he won by .1%.  While that may have been a terrible year for Republicans it was also before it was known the married Hopper was banging a twenty something who he helped get a state job.

[DrScholl]

Kapanke is done, Hopper is likely done and Harsdorf is a toss-up (Kloppenburg won SD-10).

[cinyc]

Kapanake's district is just too Democratic to be able to pull it off again considering the increasing polarization.  Hopper is going up against the same opponent he had last time around, in which he won by .1%.  While that may have been a terrible year for Republicans it was also before it was known the married Hopper was banging a twenty something who he helped get a state job.

Again, if Kapanke managed to pull it off in 2008, the worst year for Republicans in recent memory, it can very easily happen again.  Any belief that only Democratic-leaning voters are energized by recall mania should have been easily disabused after Prosser kept his seat on the high court.  There is energy on both sides - and recalls work both ways.

Hopper might have sex scandal issues, but the Republican base will ignore that and come out to vote for him anyway.  Or Republicans might primary him if it looks like he will lose.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Hopper might have sex scandal issues, but the Republican base will ignore that and come out to vote for him anyway. 

Ah yes, of course. We can always count on the hypocrisy/stupidity of those Family Values voters.

[Napoleon]

Things were different when Doyle was Governor and Democrats controlled the legislature. Liberal-leaning independents and moderates are not inclined to help Scott Walker continue pursuing his agenda. The numbers simply aren't there for Kapanke. Hopper's problems are sure to sink him too. This isn't just a sex scandal, this stinks of corruption.

[Smash255]

Kapanake's district is just too Democratic to be able to pull it off again considering the increasing polarization.  Hopper is going up against the same opponent he had last time around, in which he won by .1%.  While that may have been a terrible year for Republicans it was also before it was known the married Hopper was banging a twenty something who he helped get a state job.

Again, if Kapanke managed to pull it off in 2008, the worst year for Republicans in recent memory, it can very easily happen again.  Any belief that only Democratic-leaning voters are energized by recall mania should have been easily disabused after Prosser kept his seat on the high court.  There is energy on both sides - and recalls work both ways.

Hopper might have sex scandal issues, but the Republican base will ignore that and come out to vote for him anyway.  Or Republicans might primary him if it looks like he will lose.

Kapanake's race was quite close as well in 2008, but again its just too much polarization now for him to win a district that Democratic.  Both bases are going to turn out, but in that district the Dem base is much larger.    As you pointed out Prosser/Kloppenburg, Kloppenburg won the district by 15.6.  The district is way too Democratic for Kapanake to survive.  He is done, and it won't be close.

As far as Hopper its going to come down to Independents.  Granted they are unlikely to make up the amount of the electorate they would in a typical election as it will be dominated by the bases, however they will have some impact.  And Independents aren't going to look to fondly on someone who gave his mistress a state job.  Bases of either party may overlook something like that because its their guy, but those in the middle won't.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Kapanake's district is just too Democratic to be able to pull it off again considering the increasing polarization.  Hopper is going up against the same opponent he had last time around, in which he won by .1%.  While that may have been a terrible year for Republicans it was also before it was known the married Hopper was banging a twenty something who he helped get a state job.

Again, if Kapanke managed to pull it off in 2008, the worst year for Republicans in recent memory, it can very easily happen again.  Any belief that only Democratic-leaning voters are energized by recall mania should have been easily disabused after Prosser kept his seat on the high court.

Uh, Prosser failed to even get 43% in Kapanke's district. There just aren't enough Republicans in that district to save Kapanke.

[cinyc]

Uh, Prosser failed to even get 43% in Kapanke's district. There just aren't enough Republicans in that district to save Kapanke.

So by that logic, Kloppenburg failed to get even 45% in Holperin's district, so he should be toast, right?  After all, there just aren't enough Democrats in that district to save Holperin.

Except I forgot - recalls only run one way - Democrats good, Republicans bad.

Honestly, I think by the time the recall actually comes around, a lot of the furor will be gone and most if not all of the incumbents will remain in office.  And there are still potential primaries to come - on both sides.

[Smash255]

Uh, Prosser failed to even get 43% in Kapanke's district. There just aren't enough Republicans in that district to save Kapanke.

So by that logic, Kloppenburg failed to get even 45% in Holperin's district, so he should be toast, right?  After all, there just aren't enough Democrats in that district to save Holperin.

Except I forgot - recalls only run one way - Democrats good, Republicans bad.

Honestly, I think by the time the recall actually comes around, a lot of the furor will be gone and most if not all of the incumbents will remain in office.  And there are still potential primaries to come - on both sides.

Holperin is clearly the most endangered Democrat, and is possible he could lose.  With that being said his district isn't nearly as Republican as Kapanake's is Democratic. 

[Holmes]

cinyc, if your only argument is "if they won in 2008, people will overlook their corruption and vote to keep them", you probably shouldn't be bashing other people's logic.

[Napoleon]

cinyc, if your only argument is "if they won in 2008, people will overlook their corruption and vote to keep them", you probably shouldn't be bashing other people's logic.

He chose to ignore my argument about how the Republicans are in charge now so moderate liberals will become more anti-Republican. I sober why. But lets face it, voters are far more attentive when angry than when content.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

None from either party.  Both bases will turn out and cancel each other out.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Kapanke, Hopper, maybe Holperin.

They're not done yet, by the way -- the anti-Julie Lassa forces apparently have an extra couple weeks compared to the remainder of the recalls against Democrats. And the Democrats are still working on the remaining three Senators. Not that it matters, the remaining Senators (excluding Lassa, though I suspect she'd win comfortably) are pretty safe.

[Brittain33]

Except I forgot - recalls only run one way - Democrats good, Republicans bad.

You're better than statements like this. You aren't wounding the people you disagree with, it only reflects badly on your arguments.

[krazen1211]

The GOP needs to move on redistricting. Dane County is split to help the Democrats; it can easily be packed and quarantined.

Could also flip flop territory between Kapanke and that Republican neighbor next to him. Throw the neighbor under the bus.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

They can't start the redistricting process until all of the wards (i.e. precincts) in the state are created. It's not going to be possible until this fall at the earliest.

http://legis.wisconsin.gov/ltsb/redistricting/redistricting_timetable.htm

[Ban my account ffs!]

They can't start the redistricting process until all of the wards (i.e. precincts) in the state are created. It's not going to be possible until this fall at the earliest.

http://legis.wisconsin.gov/ltsb/redistricting/redistricting_timetable.htm

Never under estimate the will of Republicans to break the law in order to jam through their ideological agenda.

As for the recalls:  I think 2 will be recalled and the senate will remain 17-16 Republican.  The Republicans and the media will play this off as a resounding victory for the Republican agenda.

If the Democrats manage to take the senate back, it'll simply be an indication as to how upset voters are that Republicans didn't go even further to the right.  We'll start seeing the blue/red/purple circles on Time magazine again.

[cinyc]

cinyc, if your only argument is "if they won in 2008, people will overlook their corruption and vote to keep them", you probably shouldn't be bashing other people's logic.

Note I also said that a Republican could challenge Hopper in a primary if it looks like he's dead in the water, or Hopper could even decide not to run.

2008 was one of the worst years for Republicans, with extremely high turnout for Obama and the Democrats.  What makes you think that recall turnout would be as high or as skewed toward the Democrats?  Assuming that only Democrats would be energized enough to turn out come recall time is very risky.

[krazen1211]

They can't start the redistricting process until all of the wards (i.e. precincts) in the state are created. It's not going to be possible until this fall at the earliest.

http://legis.wisconsin.gov/ltsb/redistricting/redistricting_timetable.htm

Interesting, I did not know that. Is that a Wisconsin state law or procedure or custom?