The Al Realpolitik Institute of Sulfur Mining & Extraction

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Worst of all Snowstalker is not a literal baby, his ability to post on an Internet forum proves that he is not an infant.

May we never forget how lucky we are to post on a forum where such keen observers of human behavior share their insights.

[RI]

White people explaining black people is a time-honored forum tradition.

And you bitching about it is another.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sore loser

There were serious illegalities in this race. Had the Dems stayed out of the GOP primary after voting in their own, he would've won and Thad would be retiring at the end of the year.

You're dating a geologist I see. I guess I can see why a geologist would find you attractive. Your head is full of rocks after all.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Context:

I try not to

That explains a lot.

[RogueBeaver]

Well, well, well. Look at who has come out of his hole to grace us with his fantastical blathering. It's good to see you are hackish as ever. Perhaps after you get thoroughly owned for yet another election cycle, you will come to realize the truth about Colorado. I'm not quite sure where you live, but it certainly isn't in reality, yet alone Colorado.

If I'm wrong, I'll be here eating crow.

Oh, you're going to eat crow? Haven't you had more than enough crow already to last a lifetime? Your whole political life has been nothing but a feast on crow. The time has come for you to get schooled by Panda Express. I'm gonna crush you like a crouton. I'm gonna fry you like a fritter. I'm gonna smoke you like a bong.

Let's take a look at all the crow you've consumed throughout the years, shall we?

On 2010:

I wouldn't be surprised if Hick takes a look at the political environment and decides not to run.  He's already the third-string QB in a race that needs a Peyton Manning to beat McInnis.  And he already has rural Democrats lobbing bombs over the Front Range at him because he looks to a lot of people too much like a carpetbagging liberal (remind of a certain Senator from Colorado?).  The fact is that Obama's approval rating in Colorado is among the lowest in the country and Hickenlooper's (and Ritter's and Bennet's and...) ties to the president will hurt him a lot.  Add to that the fact that Hickenlooper's business ties could cost him some union support (which Romanoff apparently tried picking up over the weekend) and this looks like an absolute disaster. 

He'll keep it close enough to make it interesting, but my guess is that his rather liberal ideas seep into the suburbs and beyond, his poll numbers will take a big hit and McInnis could end up winning with Ritter-esque numbers.

PPP also had Hickenlooper up by 11 points which is ridiculous.  If he's up at all--and I doubt that he is--Hick leads by a point or two.  It looks more like PPP is trying to cheerlead their candidates rather than do an accurate poll. 

That's funny--Rasmussen is the only pollster who has had any consistency in this race.  The only poll (besides, ironically, Rasmussen's February poll) showing Hickenlooper winning was the liberal PPP poll showing him up by a ridiculous 11 points. 

On the 2012 Presidential Election in Colorado:

Obama is doing far worse in Colorado than in Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Virginia.  Those numbers tell you where 2012 will be won for Team Obama.  And it won't be in Colorado.

I'm fairly confident that Obama will lose Colorado. 

PPP's poll simply over-samples Democrats.  That's fine, I suppose.  But you just have to consider that when analyzing the PPP polls out of Colorado.  And if you take a Democrat-leaning poll that has Obama up only 2 and another poll with his approval numbers at only 39% in Colorado, you have a big Obama loss in Colorado.

Colorado will end up moving more safely in Romney's direction,

people will be genuinely surprised that Colorado ends up with a PVI of R +3 or R+4 in November.

SurveyUSA is up to its usual games, I see.

You're right--this poll slanted decidedly to the left.  As I noted visa-vis the ARG poll out of Colorado yesterday, it is likely that Romney has a small but significant lead in Colorado right now. 

The Survey USA crosstabs are 34 D, 34 R, 30 I.  But the actual active voter registration is 32 D, 34 R, 31 I.  Even in 2008, it was R +1.  It won't be any less than R +3 this year, especially considering the gains in voter registration since '08 made by the GOP here.  So no matter how you slice it, Romney leads Colorado.

Actually, if you look into the crosstabs, it's not that close at all in Colorado.  If they had polled the state correctly, Romney would have a decent lead.  ARG has 34 D 32 R 34 I.  The problem?  Active registration is actually like this: 37 R, 32 D, and 31 I.  In other words, they underpolled Republicans by five points, overpolled Dems by two, and significantly overpolled unaffiliateds (who favor the president by two in this poll).

If you work out the math, I imagine that Romney would be leading by at least three or four. 

Unbelievable how people accept this stuff carte blanche without actually looking into whether the books are cooked (as they frequently are, for whatever reason, in Colorado). 

Did the Bain ads even air in Colorado? Thought those were mainly targeted in the rust belt.

We've had plenty of them here in the Denver area.  And they're probably helped Romney rather than hurt him.

I would expect Romney to crank out a win similar to President Bush's margin in 2004.

It's a D +3 sample.  That doesn't even pass the laugh test.  The National Journal story was probably legit--if you can only must a three-point lead when you oversample Democrats by six points, then you're probably in real trouble.

With PPP, you have to peel beneath the numbers to get the real story.

On the political leanings of Colorado in general:

The reality on the ground is that Colorado looks poised to emerge after Election Day, once again, as a state that leans Republican in absence of a compelling, moderate Democrat running in a bad year for the GOP.  Way too many people drank the blue Kool Aid that pundits were serving over the charred carcus of the state Republican Party.  It was so weird to see that happening considering the fact that Colorado is still a fairly conservative state, all things considered.  It's hard to declare Colorado the newest Democratic stronghold when most voters in the state gravitate to ideas that run contrary to the heart of the Democratic Party (nationally, anyway). 

Coloradans have not become more "left-wing."  In fact, if you take the last 20 years out as a case study, the opposite might be more true.

The poll's methodology is even more hackneyed than the sort of baloney that PPP usually produces.


The reality: Colorado's a conservative state.

The Colorado GOP is actually is pretty good shape here.  We'll likely maintain our 4-3 congressional split, and might even pick up CD-7.  We'll also probably keep the state house, and possibly pick up the state Senate. 

Colorado has snapped back to the right.  I don't know what that portends for the country more broadly, but I won't at all be surprised to see Romney lose by handful and still win in Colorado.  Frankly, the whole "new majority" narrative about Colorado and even Nevada has been wrong for six long years.

Did they poll the marijuana referendum?

Yes.  The Post will release those results probably sometime this weekend.  I really don't expect it to pass. 

You really only post about Colorado and when you do, you're completely wrong. Always. You're going to be wrong again when the GOP goes down in flames again. My hope is you'll finally wake up to the truth but you're one of the most delusional people here. Your predictions have been one big joke after another but it's no longer funny. Time to wake up and smell the coffee, son.

[Mechaman]

That has got to be the most beautiful ownage I've ever seen.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

That has got to be the most beautiful ownage I've ever seen.

I haven't been following Colorado, but PE best hope that this isn't the year for a broken clock to be right because of the time of day.

[Badger]

That has got to be the most beautiful ownage I've ever seen.

I haven't been following Colorado, but PE best hope that this isn't the year for a broken clock to be right because of the time of day.

Yeah, as awesomely accurate as that was, Udall's not out of the woods yet (though IMO should survive unless this turns into not merely a good GOP year, but rather 2010 Part II).

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Teddy Kennedy, with the most famous family name in Massachusetts,  was able to win a Senate seat in one of the most Democratic states in the nation, a seat held by his very famous brother and President, John F Kennedy, who made it clear he wanted his little brother to inherit the seat.

However, he was not able to defeat the President and Georgia peanut farmer, when it came to running outside his personal little enclave of liberalism and Kennedyism, and wrest the nomination from a bumbling Chief Executive.

Is this supposed to be new information to anyone?

[Simfan34]

That has got to be the most beautiful ownage I've ever seen.

Good call by the mods.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Grimes should practice hunting turtles instead. Especially mutant ones that have morphed into human form.

She'll have plenty of time to take up a hobby after November.

Yeah, she doesn't have to move into her new Senate office until January.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Grimes should practice hunting turtles instead. Especially mutant ones that have morphed into human form.

She'll have plenty of time to take up a hobby after November.

Yeah, she doesn't have to move into her new Senate office until January.

? Hardly a burn.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Does this remind anyone of the whole "woman in the car" story with FitzGerald?

I'm afraid such a comparison would be extremely inaccurate.  The Davis faux-scandal and the FitzGerald scandal differ in a number of key ways.  Let's review the material again, shall we? 

1. Unlike Paul Davis, who had turned this into a lean Democratic race before the strip club incident was revealed, Ed FitzGerald never had a snowball's chance in Detroit of winning.

2. Unlike Paul Davis, who was just getting a lap dance in a strip club 16 years ago and wasn't even been married at the time, FitzGerald was pretty clearly having an affair.  In fact, those who insist he was probably just innocently sitting in an empty parking lot with a woman who wasn't his wife despite the fact that his version of the incident doesn't hold up at all should probably be referred to as "FitzGerald truthers." 

3. Unlike Paul Davis, who by all accounts didn't do anything illegal, Ed FitzGerald was also illegally driving a number of vehicles (including a county car) for about ten years because he didn't bother to get his driver's license renewed (for reasons unknown).  Furthermore, FitzGerald punished multiple individuals for driving without a license even as he himself was doing the exact same thing.

4. Unlike Paul Davis, who hasn't done anything like this, Ed FitzGerald sent out fundraising e-mails shortly after his scandal was reported which made it sound like his son's cancer (IIRC) appeared coming back in a pathetic attempt to raise money off his son's illness and try to distract people from the fact that he (FitzGerald) was imploding after being exposed as a law-breaking, womanizing, hypocrite who no one ever really liked in the first place (except Adam). 

5. Unlike Paul Davis, who is running against a highly unpopular Governor with very few supporters other than people who will reflexively vote for anyone if he/she has an R next to their name, Ed FitzGerald is facing a Governor with average popularity with a solid support base who *used to be* extremely unpopular, but now generally gets a "meh, he's okay, I guess" rating from many Ohioans outside of the Republican party.

6. Unlike Paul Davis, who is still running a very competitive race, Ed FitzGerald has basically all-but-suspended his campaign and only failed to do that because it'd mean his name would be out of the papers and that may well be all he has left

7. Unlike Paul Davis, whose race is probably now toss-up tilt R at worst, there is no chance FitzGerald can still pull out a win. 

8. Unlike Paul Davis, who won't hurt Democrats in the SoS race or Greg Orman in the Senate race even if Brownback wins, it is pretty much a given that FitzGerald will cost many good Democratic candidates their races (ex: the only statewide officer race that is now even remotely competitive is State Treasurer which has gone from Lean D to right on the border between Lean R and Toss-up tilt-R because of FitzGerald).

Study these notes and you should have no trouble with tomorrow's quiz.

[Oakvale]

Darn it, I punched the wrong hole and voted for Pat Buchanan!

ROFLOL!!!!!!

[DC Al Fine]

And, yeah, the New Right was basically the Old Right.  Ideologically, you can see a lot of continuity from the second Ku Klux Klan to the New Right of the 1960s.  These were just American fascists.

Yes, a group of Roman Catholics united by their support of the half-Jew Barry Goldwater were the same thing as the second Klan.

What's more, I repeated that again, which makes it, in this thread alone, three times as true!

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Darn it, I punched the wrong hole and voted for Pat Buchanan!

ROFLOL!!!!!!

The sad thing was that for a while I thought Paul thought that was genuinely funny.

[courts]

>implying you have any actual experience with sociopaths

Could you just go post this trash somewhere else? You're not entertaining, not insightful, and not the least bit interesting.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is KCDem like ISIL? Both are deluded, belligerent and have been greeted by near-universal condemnation.
Discuss

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

the scary part is that he is smarter and more educated than the average ohlahoman.

bushie makes terrible decisions.  he needs professional help.

lol k

If you're going to chastise an entire group of people for being unintelligent, at least be able to spell.

[Simfan34]

I am choosing to read Snowstalker's and CELTICEMPIRE's posts here as self-aware self-parody of the "when all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail" mindsets all-too-inherent to many ideologues, rather than serious suggestions.

Doing so is a good strategy for preserving one's basic faith in humanity.

>implying that you aren't an ideologue

Can we please stop pretending its possible for someone to approach issues from a 'non-ideological' standpoint, or pretending that being 'non-ideological' is possible?

Fine, then, it is part and parcel of my ideology to acknowledge the contingency and complexity of actual life, and be wary of "pat" solutions that don't at least give lip service to the details of the solution at hand*.  If that sort of care and nuance is inherently ideological, then okay, I will wear that label with pride.  

But, really, it's not actually necessarily ideological in the specific way that you're implying, and if it is than you're really just insulting yourself.  I choose to believe that, if you tried, you could come up with a solution for Syria [or insert other country/region/issue here] that both acknowledged (and demonstrated an understanding of) the unique sorts of challenges it faces, and tried to incorporate a Marxist [or insert preferred approach here] approach into a contextual, on-topic answer.  

The problem is that those folks didn't even try.  They just parroted talking points that could be cut and pasted into any situation, anywhere.  Do you seriously not see the problem with that?

*I might extend that further, actually, to say that I don't believe perfect consistency to be even possible, and I furthermore think that the effort to twist reality to create the appearance of perfect consistency is something that has caused great harm over the years.  That is an ideological thing to say, and I acknowledge as such, and you would be right to label it as such.  It is also superfluous to my task of proving that Snowstalker and CELTIC are being tiresome knuckleheads with their "solutions" here.  One does not need to commit to capital-P Pragmatism to point out when the proverbial Magic 8-Ball is broken.

[Paul Kemp]

Anyway, this is a predictably dismal thread. The idea that Islam is uniquely violent - or that the forms of violence associated with the Islamic world are unique to it - is bogus and bigoted, but the well-intended defences of Islam that tend to get wheeled out (and have been here) are pathetically weak and all too often rely on bad history.

Yet another high handed judgement without feeling the need to elaborate and exemplify his critique or engage in a debate. Basically just: "I am so smart and you are all so  stupid."

Hits too close to home?

[politicus]

Anyway, this is a predictably dismal thread. The idea that Islam is uniquely violent - or that the forms of violence associated with the Islamic world are unique to it - is bogus and bigoted, but the well-intended defences of Islam that tend to get wheeled out (and have been here) are pathetically weak and all too often rely on bad history.

Yet another high handed judgement without feeling the need to elaborate and exemplify his critique or engage in a debate. Basically just: "I am so smart and you are all so  stupid."

Hits too close to home?

Is that a good burn? Its a standard line you can always fall back on if you have nothing really clever to say.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

15

Now the extreme idiocy you constantly spew makes perfect sense.

what's your excuse then?

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I'm kind of shocked the LBJ apologists haven't tried to argue against it yet.  Probably the types that like to sleep in though...

Dead becomes the first Atlasians to execute a pre-emptive burn. Bravo!

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Certainly some southerners hunt, but I'd agree with you that it's more of a midwestern/western thing.  Hunting is very big around here (dear, turkey, pheasant) and it was kind of big in suburban St.Louis where I grew up (mostly just dear).  Dear in the south tend to be smaller 'cause of the heat.

...and every kind of person goes camping.