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| | |-+  WV-PPP: Tomblin and Ireland far ahead in their primaries
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Author Topic: WV-PPP: Tomblin and Ireland far ahead in their primaries  (Read 619 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: April 26, 2011, 11:08:17 am »

The acting incumbent has an advantage in a crowded Democratic field. Tomblin leads
with 32%, about the same as the next two candidates combined. Three candidates—State
Treasurer John Perdue (17%), Secretary of State Natalie Tennant (16%), and State House
Speaker Rick Thompson (15%)—are in a statistical tie for second. State Sen. Jeff
Kessler (5%) and activist Arne Moltis (1%) bring up the rear. 14% are still undecided,
with the primary less than three weeks away. Twice that many are undecided in the GOP
race, more than enough to make a difference if they end up voting.

In the Republican contest, Ireland has 31% support over businessman Bill Maloney’s
17%, with everyone else in single digits: State Sen. Clark Barnes and State Del. Mitch
Carmichael at 8%, district attorney Mark Sorsaia at 4%, former State Del. Larry Faircloth
and professor Ralph William Clark at 2%, and former Westover mayor Cliff Ellis at 1%.

PPP surveyed 590 likely West Virginia Democratic primary voters, with a +/-4.0%
margin of error, and 274 likely Republican primary voters, with a +/-5.9% margin of
error, from April 21st to 24th. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign
or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone
interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company but polling expert Nate Silver of the
New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward
Republican candidates.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_WV_0426424.pdf
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1 on: April 26, 2011, 11:10:52 am »

WV Democrats are crappy:

Do you approve or disapprove of Barack Obama’s job performance?

Approve................. 42%
Disapprove............ 46%

Tongue
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Meeker
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« Reply #2 on: April 26, 2011, 11:14:42 am »
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Tomblin is the worst of the lot so of course they'll nominate him. Sigh...
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #3 on: April 26, 2011, 11:37:13 am »
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Here are the numbers in an easier-to-read format:

Democratic primary:

Earl Ray Tomblin - 32
John Perdue - 17
Natalie Tennant - 16
Rick Thompson - 15
Jeff Kessler - 5
Arne Moltis - 1

Looks like I was right about the anti-Tomblin vote being split. He's jumped ahead; Tennant was right behind him back in January.

Republican primary:

Betty Ireland - 31
Bill Maloney - 17
Clark Barnes - 8
Mitch Carmichael - 8
Mark Sorsaia - 4
Ralph William Clark - 2
Larry Faircloth - 2
Cliff Ellis - 1

Ireland's lead isn't so impressive when you consider the previous poll had her winning 46-11 over Barnes, and Maloney wasn't even polled.
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