Obama/Biden vs. Romney/Rubio 2012
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Author Topic: Obama/Biden vs. Romney/Rubio 2012  (Read 4409 times)
Skill and Chance
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« on: April 27, 2011, 11:32:05 PM »
Consider three different scenarios based on Obama's popularity on election eve:

1. 38% Approve/ 57% Disapprove

2. 48% Approve/ 47% Disapprove

3. 58% Approve/ 37% Disapprove

What would the map look like?
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #1 on: April 27, 2011, 11:43:47 PM »
1.



Obama 192 Romney 297 Toss up 49

2.



Obama 266 Romney 191 Toss up 81

3.



Obama 359  Romney 139 Toss up 40
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Dancing with Myself
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« Reply #2 on: April 28, 2011, 02:37:21 PM »
1.


2.


3.
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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #3 on: April 28, 2011, 05:27:48 PM »

1. Obama won't carry PA if he isn't able to win in NJ
2. NM won't vote for Romney if Colorado votes democrat.
3. Nevada would be safe for Obama in that scenario
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Penelope
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« Reply #4 on: April 28, 2011, 10:12:20 PM »
#1.


Romney/Rubio - 327 EV
Obama/Biden - 211 EV

#2.


Obama/Biden - 297 EV
Romney/Rubio - 241 EV

#3.


Obama/Biden - 414 EV
Romney/Rubio - 124 EV
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #5 on: April 28, 2011, 10:41:40 PM »
Scenario 1:


Scenario 2:

Scenario 3:
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #6 on: April 28, 2011, 11:14:32 PM »
1:



2:



3:
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Elyski
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« Reply #7 on: April 29, 2011, 07:27:03 PM »
1.

Romney 326 EV
Obama  212 EV
2.

Obama  339 EV
Romney 199 EV
3.

Obama  388 EV
Romney 150 EV
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NHI
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« Reply #8 on: May 01, 2011, 09:12:32 AM »


R: 342
D: 196



R: 272
D: 266



D: 281
R: 257
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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #9 on: May 01, 2011, 10:12:29 AM »
Quote from: NHI on May 01, 2011, 09:12:32 AM


R: 342
D: 196



R: 272
D: 266



D: 281
R: 257

map 3 doesn't make sense. Obama would win, at least, NH, OH and NCwith those approvals.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #10 on: May 01, 2011, 10:28:02 AM »
Quote from: JulioMadrid on May 01, 2011, 10:12:29 AM
Quote from: NHI on May 01, 2011, 09:12:32 AM


R: 342
D: 196



R: 272
D: 266



D: 281
R: 257

map 3 doesn't make sense. Obama would win, at least, NH, OH and NCwith those approvals.

I agree.  I would be shocked if he didn't do better than 2008 with 58% approval.  At worst it would be 2008+GA+AZ.  At best it would be something Reaganesque where he loses only OK, AL and UT-ID-WY.   
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NHI
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« Reply #11 on: May 01, 2011, 11:49:49 AM »
Opps, my apologies with map 3, I must have posted the wrong map to this page.

Corrected version:



D: 396
R: 142
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