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SirNick
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« Reply #25 on: May 05, 2011, 02:34:09 pm »
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November 2015 National Polling:


Democratic Primary:

Vice President Kathleen Sebelius   18%

Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel   15%
New York Governor Eliot Spitzer   14%
Virginia Senator Mark Warner   12%
Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley   11%
Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick   10%
Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer   8%
Nevada Senator Catherine Masto   2%
Undecided: 10%

Republican Primary:

Illinois Senator Mark Kirk   25%
New Jersey Governor Chris Christie   15%
Kentucky Senator Rand Paul   12%
Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell   9%
South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley   8%
New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez   6%
South Dakota Senator Kristi Noem   4%


Some Head-To-Head Match Ups:

Sebelius: 38%
Kirk:  42%
Undecided: 20%

Sebelius: 40%
Christie: 45%
Undecided: 15%

Emanuel: 45%
Kirk: 38%

Martinez: 23%
Masto: 15%
Undecided: 62%
















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SirNick
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« Reply #26 on: May 06, 2011, 11:09:28 am »
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February 2015

Christmas and January go by with little substantial national news other than the President's State of the Union Address.

Iowa Caucus Results:

Democratic Party:


Former Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer wins the Democratic Iowa Caucus with 22.3% of the vote. Schweitzer calls the day a victory for "all of those who support common sense solutions"

Vice President Kathleen Sebelius: 19.6%
Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel: 17.5%
New York Governor Eliot Spitzer: 13.9%
Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley: 10.1%
Virginia Senator Mark Warner: 7.2%
Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick: 5.5%
Nevada Senator Catherine Masto: 4.0%

Republican Caucus Results:



South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley steals the show defeating frontrunner Mark Kirk with 22.2% of the vote. Haley cries out that she "is the change the Republican Party needs in this age."
Illinois Senator Mark Kirk: 21.98%
New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez: 12.62%
New Jersey Governor Chris Christie: 12.27%
Kentucky Senator Rand Paul: 11.66%
Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell: 10.7%
South Dakota Senator Kristi Noem: 8.56%
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SirNick
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« Reply #27 on: May 06, 2011, 11:43:45 am »
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After the caucuses South Dakota Senator Kristi Noem drops out endorsing Nikki Haley.

New Hampshire Primary Results:

Democratic Party:




New York Governor Eliot Spitzer runs away with the New Hampshire primary with 25.11% of the vote.
Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley dubs himself the next "comeback kid" garnering 21.3% of the vote.
Vice President Kathleen Sebelius pulls in third with 21.29% of the vote barely losing to O'Malley
Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick: 10.2% of the vote
Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel: 10.1%
Virginia Senator Mark Warner: 4.5%
Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer, who had campaigned little in New Hampshire, comes away with 5.3% of the vote even though having won the Iowa caucus.


Republican Primary Results:



Illinois Senator Mark Kirk reclaims his place as the frontrunner with 27.8% of the vote
New Jersey Governor Chris Christie: 25.4%
South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley: 20.2%
New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez: 16.3%
Kentucky Senator Rand Paul: 8%
Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell: 2.3%

Pundits:

This is a big win for Mark Kirk tonight who has been seen as the front-runner --although he still has formidable opponents. I think we can see the field shrink considerably in the next few days for Republicans and Democrats...


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« Reply #28 on: May 06, 2011, 12:27:21 pm »
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Now it gets interesting.
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SirNick
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« Reply #29 on: May 06, 2011, 01:39:06 pm »
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Mid February 2016

Following the New Hampshire Primary Democrats Mark Warner, Deval Patrick and Rahm Emanuel all leave the race. Warner endorses Schweitzer while Patrick endorses Spitzer. Emanuel opts not to endorse anyone and says "we have a lot of great candidates and I plan to support the Democratic nominee." Vice President Sebelius, who has not won a race yet, states she plans to stay in the race because she can win states like Illinois and California.  

On the Republican side, Governor Bob McDonnell who was once seen as a rising star drops out having failed to gain traction with the Republican electorate. Senator Rand Paul suspends his campaign blaming the media for his failure to gain traction with the electorate.

A group of "Minute Men" on the border between Texas and Mexico shoot and kill three Mexicans who were illegally crossing the border. They are arrested and charged with murder, Mexico demands that these people be extradited and persecuted in Mexico. Secretary of State Bill Richardson and Attorney General Eric Holder condemn the murder but say that "the US judiciary system is perfectly able to handle this."


Not long after, the President --who has made no progress on immigration, gets the question at a press conference from reporter who said that former Governors Rick Perry and Jan Brewer have both stated something on the level of  that "The President could do a lot more to help prevent illegal immigration. Its as if the problem doesn't exist to him."

The President responds that he's always been aware of the problem but that building a wall or putting more people there won't solve it. He does mention that "deporting over 2 million illegals just isn't feasible."

Members from both parties in Congress float their own immigration bills that they think would solve the problem. One of the most popular bills in the Senate is a Democratic bill sponsored by Senator Tom Udall which would create a pathway to citizenship for illegals and also includes the DREAM Act.

The bill has some bipartisan support with a handful of Republican Senators quietly supporting it because it creates harsher punishment for any illegal that fails to register with the government in the time frame or who illegally enters the country after the time frame --however; the problem lies in the House where House Republicans and some conservative Democrats oppose the bill.

President Obama, although still not fully engaged in the issue, is rumored to support the bill. As the bill is debated in Congress, pro and anti-immigration rallies occur in major cities around the United States.

Soon enough, the Nevada Caucus results come in...

Democratic Primary:



Governor Eliot Spitzer claims his second victory winning 34% of the vote in Nevada.
Governor O'Malley comes in second with 23.45%
Vice President Sebelius comes in third with 23.44%
Senator Catherine Masto comes in fourth defeating Brian Schweitzer for fourth place with 10% of the vote
Governor Brian Schweitzer brings in the rear with 9% of the vote.

Governor Schweitzer in a speech following the results says "I thank everyone who has supported me from Montana to Iowa and to here in Nevada --and to Senator Warner for his kind endorsement --but today I must quit the race for the Democratic nomination. The people have made it clear that now is not my time. We need to bring new ideas into Washington, we can't have the same people changing positions, moving around and acting as if they're new. Therefore I am throwing my support behind Governor O'Malley..."


Republican Primary:



Susana Martinez walks away with a surprise victory in Nevada garnering 31.76% of the vote.

Governor Nikki Haley comes in second, besting Mark Kirk, with 30.43% of the vote.
Senator Mark Kirk - 24.51%
Governor Chris Christie - 13.30%

In a quiet statement thanking his supporters, Governor Christie withdraws from the race endorsing Senator Mark Kirk.


« Last Edit: May 06, 2011, 01:40:45 pm by sirnick »Logged
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« Reply #30 on: May 06, 2011, 01:47:29 pm »
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I would've expected the two westerners of Schweitzer and Sebelius to do decently in Nevada.
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SirNick
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« Reply #31 on: May 06, 2011, 02:39:28 pm »
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During the South Carolina debates there is a lot of focus around Susana Martinez for a few reasons including that she is latina, the Minutemen Situation in Texas, the involvement of Latino Secretary of State Bill Richardson as well as also being Martinez's predecessor. One of the questions goes to her about if she supports Tom Udall's proposal to which she responds "This is a hard issue, but I do agree with the President here --it is impossible for us to deport over 2 million illegal immigrants. I do like the idea of Senator Udall's bill --if I were in Congress I would certainly be working with him on this issue and I hope Congress can come to an agreement. We need leadership on this issue and the President, even though he's made a comment here or there, has not given any leadership on this in the past six years. I can pledge to you that immigration policy will be at the forefront of my agenda as President."

After being excluded from the Democratic debates, Senator Catherine Masto drops out of the race.


South Carolina Results:

*Note - Senator Kirk did not campaign in Governor Haley's home state but Martinez did.

Republican:



Nikki Haley wins her home state with 57.2% of the vote
Susana Martinez walks away with 27.5% of the vote
Mark Kirk secures 15.3% of the vote


Democratic:



Governor Martin O'Malley wins South Carolina with 40.1% of the vote defeating Vice President Sebelius for a third time in a row.
Vice President Sebelius: 35.3%
Governor Spitzer: 24.59%


Democratic Primary Map:



Former NY Gov Eliot Spitzer (Blue): 2 States, 30 Delegates
Former MD Gov Martin O'Malley (Red): 1 State, 32 Delegates
VP Kathleen Sebelius (N/A): 45 Delegates
MT Gov Brian Schweitzer (N/A - Out): 17 Delegates
Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel (N/A-Out) 13 Delegates


David Gergen: The Democratic primary is in shambles right now in my opinion. We have Governor Spitzer who most people see as the frontrunner right now having won 2 states but he's losing to O'Malley and Sebelius in the delegate count --which to be honest, is the only thing that counts. On the other hand, Sebelius has had a very poor showing --the Vice Presidency has not helped her win any states but she does lead in delegates due to poor showings for O'Malley and Spitzer in Iowa.

Republican Primary Map:




SC Gov Nikki Haley (Red): 2 States, 64 Delegates
IL Sen Mark Kirk (Blue): 1 State, 43 Delegates
NM Gov Susana Martinez (Green): 1 State, 29 Delegates
NJ Gov Chris Christie (N/A - Out) - 7 Delegates

Pundits:

David Gergen: On the other side, the Republicans seem to slowly be rallying behind Nikki Haley --although its a big question if she can win on Super Tuesday. Senator Kirk still has more name recognition than she does but his unfavorables are much higher. I think Martinez, if she gives another great debate performance, could definitely be on the minds of voters.


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SirNick
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« Reply #32 on: May 06, 2011, 03:14:50 pm »
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With Super Tuesday both parties' candidates have one last debate before 24 primaries...

Vice President Sebelius is called the "ultimate Washington insider" by Governor O'Malley saying that her Administration would be an affirmation of the status quo. Spitzer hits Sebelius for mismanaging the fight for health care reform and "allowing Republicans to control the debate." Spitzer also hits O'Malley for not doing more to improve schools. Post-debate polls show that Spitzer won the debate.

On the Republican side Susana Martinez hits her high note again talking about immigration  while Mark Kirk gets hit with accusations that reflected his first Senate campaign when he took down Alexi Giannoulias. Nikki Haley, unlike her other debate performances, mostly stays out of the back-and-forth between Martinez and Kirk over immigration. Pundits said that Haley "just seemed off" and that her performance in earlier debates had been superb --and usually you'd see both candidates attacking Haley because she's the frontrunner --but they're not, they're attacking each other..."

SOME Super Tuesday Results:



New York:
Democrats: Spitzer (62%), Sebelius (21%), O'Malley (17%)
Republicans: Kirk (Winner Take All)



California:
Democrats: Spitzer (43%), O'Malley (30%), Sebelius (27%)
Republicans: Haley (35%), Martinez (33%), Kirk (32%)


New Jersey:
Democrats:: Spitzer (56%), O'Malley (23%), Sebelius (21%)
Republicans: Martinez (Winnter Take All) - .025% margin over Kirk


Illinois:

Democrats: Spitzer (39%), O'Malley (36%), Sebelius (25%)
Republicans: Kirk (56%), Haley (23%), Martinez (21%)

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« Reply #33 on: May 06, 2011, 04:14:06 pm »
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Go Schweitzer! On the Republican side, I'm not sure who to root for.
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SirNick
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« Reply #34 on: May 09, 2011, 10:16:17 am »
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Super Tuesday Results Continued

Massachusetts:

D: Spitzer (40%), O'Malley (34%), Sebelius (26%)
R: Kirk (43%), Martinez (30%), Haley (27%)

Georgia:

D: O'Malley (38%), Sebelius (35%), Spitzer (25%)
R: Martinez (34%), Haley (33%), Kirk (33%)

Florida:

D: Spitzer (43%), O'Malley (35%), Sebelius (22%)
R: Martinez (Winner Take All)


Missouri:

D: Sebelius (40%), O'Malley (36%), Spitzer (24%)
R: Haley (Winner Take All)


Tennessee:

D: Sebelius (42%), O'Malley (40%), Spitzer (18%)
R: Haley (50%), Kirk (35%), Martinez (15%)

Colorado

D: Spitzer (37%), Sebelius (35%), O'Malley (28%)
R: Martinez (35%), Kirk (33%), Haley (32%)

Arizona:

D: Spitzer (42%), O'Malley (35%), Sebelius (23%)
R:  Martinez (Winner Take All)

Wyoming:

D: Sebelius (38%), O'Malley (37%), Spitzer (25%)
R: Haley (45%), Kirk (38%), Martinez (17%)
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SirNick
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« Reply #35 on: May 09, 2011, 10:29:15 am »
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Alabama:

D: O'Malley (42%), Sebelius (35%), Spitzer (18%)
R: Haley (53%), Kirk (31%), Martinez (16%)

Michigan:

D: Spitzer (45%), O'Malley (34%), Sebelius (21%)
R: Kirk (43%), Haley (38%), Martinez (19%)

Connecticut:

D:Spitzer (57%), Sebelius (26%),  O'Malley (17%)
R: Kirk (Winner Take All)

Arkansas:

D: Sebelius (46%), O'Malley (43%), Spitzer (11%)*
R: Haley (47%), Kirk (36%), Martinez (17%)
*Spitzer does not meet criteria (15%) for delegates in Arkansas

Oklahoma:

D: Sebelius (42%), O'Malley (37%), Spitzer (21%)
R: Haley (44%), Kirk (34%), Martinez (22%)

Kansas:

D: Sebelius (65%), O'Malley (19%), Spitzer (16%)
R:  Haley (40%), Kirk (35%), Martinez (25%)
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« Reply #36 on: May 09, 2011, 10:29:51 am »
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GO HALEY!
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SirNick
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« Reply #37 on: May 09, 2011, 10:47:37 am »
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New Mexico:

D: Spitzer (38%), O'Malley (32%), Sebelius (30%)
R: Martinez (62%), Kirk (23%), Haley (15%)

Utah:

D: O'Malley (41%), Sebelius (37%), Spitzer (21%)
R:  Haley (Winner Take All)

Delaware:

D: O'Malley (56%), Spitzer (30%), Sebelius (14%)*
R: Kirk (Winner Take All)

*Sebelius narrowly misses the delegate threshold

North Dakota:

D: O'Malley (42%), Spitzer (40%), Sebelius (18%)
R: Martinez (36%), Kirk (34%), Haley (30%)

Idaho:

D: Sebelius (40%), O'Malley (36%), Spitzer (24%)
R: Kirk (43%), Haley (42%), Martinez (15%)

Alaska:

D: Sebelius (45%), Spitzer (40%), O'Malley (15%)
R: Kirk (60%), Haley (30%), Martinez (10%)*
*Martinez does not meet delegate threshold

American Samoa:

D: Spitzer
R: Kirk

West Virginia:

D:  O'Malley (38%), Sebelius (32%), Spitzer (30%)
R: Haley (50%), Kirk (35%), Martinez (15%
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SirNick
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« Reply #38 on: May 09, 2011, 11:07:22 am »
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Post-Super Tuesday Results:

Democratic Primaries:




Former NY Gov Eliot Spitzer (Blue): 847 Delegates, 14 States
Former MD Gov Martin O'Malley (Red): 668 Delegates, 6 States
VP Kathleen Sebelius (Green): 625 Delegates, 9 States
Former MT Gov Brian Schweitzer (Yellow): 20 Delegates, 1 State
Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel: 15 Delegates


Pundits: Having won every major contest it is clear that Governor Spitzer is the front runner --especially with the opposition divided between two candidates who split victories in the states that Governor Spitzer was weak in.





SC Gov Nikki Haley (Red): 12 States, 460 Delegates
IL Sen Mark Kirk (Blue): 10 States, 507 Delegates
NM Gov Susana Martinez (Green): 9 States, 485 Delegates
NJ Gov Chris Christie (N/A - Out) - 7 Delegates

Pundits: National polls put Martinez behind both Senator Kirk and Governor Haley but she has proved to be the spoiler tonight winning a plurality of the vote in 8 states including New Jersey. Exit polls show that Martinez been out of the race the state would have heavily gone in favor of Senator Mark Kirk just as New York did. We see the opposite in Florida where the state would have gone for Haley without Martinez in the race.
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SirNick
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« Reply #39 on: May 09, 2011, 11:17:17 am »
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After the polls close, it is confirmed that Vice President's schedule has been cleared for the next day so she can return to the White House at the bequest of President Obama


Governor Martinez calls the night "a great victory for the direction the Republican Party and America needs to go in" and vows to stay in the race (as do Haley and Kirk).

National Polling:

Democratic Primary:


Spitzer: 53%
O'Malley: 27%
Sebelius: 20%

Republican Primary:

Haley: 42%
Kirk: 38%
Martinez: 20%

Head-To-Head Match Ups:

Spitzer: 44%
Haley: 40%

Spitzer: 41%
Kirk: 41%

Spitzer: 45%
Martinez: 30%

O'Malley: 40%
Haley: 43%

O'Malley: 39%
Kirk: 44%

O'Malley: 36%
Martinez: 30%

Sebelius: 39%
Haley: 43%

Sebelius: 40%
Kirk: 45%

Sebelius: 38%
Martinez: 32%
« Last Edit: May 09, 2011, 11:18:59 am by sirnick »Logged
SirNick
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« Reply #40 on: May 09, 2011, 12:26:16 pm »
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At a press conference in Washington DC, Vice President Kathleen Sebelius announces that she will stay in the race.

February 9th Primaries:

Democrats: Governor Spitzer manages to close the gap between him and the other two candidates in Southern primaries picking up at least 30% of the vote in Louisiana and Nebraska. Spitzer came in second place in each of those states while O'Malley won Louisiana and Sebelius won Nebraska. Spitzer walked home with Washington State and Maine.

Republicans: Martinez wins 22% of the vote in Washington State, enough to propel Senator Kirk to a win there while Haley takes home Louisiana. Martinez is in third after these primaries but vows to stay in the race.

February 12th Primaries:

Democrats: Martin O'Malley takes home Maryland and Virginia while Governor Spitzer takes DC and Democrats Abroad. Governor Sebelius comes in third in all of these contests and does not meet delegate requirements in MD, VA or Democrats abroad.

After the February 12th primaries, Vice President Sebelius suspends her Presidential campaign in a low-key press conference after devastating losses and dropping in national polls. The Vice President has 685 delegates which is 19% of the total pledged delegates.

Republicans: Martinez, still considered the spoiler in the race, takes home DC. Haley defeats Kirk in Maryland while they switch places in Virginia. Still in third place, and national polls heavily against Martinez even though most states have voted, Martinez keeps going.

February 19

Governor Spitzer takes home Hawaii and Wisconsin. Martinez wins Hawaii for the Republicans and Kirk wins Wisconsin.

February 20, 2015



Governor Martin O'Malley suspends his campaign for President and endorses Governor Eliot Spitzer saying "it is time for our party to unite behind the Democratic nominee, Eliot Spitzer...

Pundits say that even if O'Malley won 60% of the remaining delegates he would not have surpassed Spitzer.

Final Democratic Primary Map:



Presumptive Nominee Former NY Gov Eliot Spitzer (Blue): 1,881 Delegates, 31 States
Former MD Gov Martin O'Malley (Red-Out): 954 Delegates, 8 States & DC
VP Kathleen Sebelius (Green-Out): 685 Delegates, 10 States
Former MT Gov Brian Schweitzer (Yellow-Out): 20 Delegates, 1 State
Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel (Out): 15 Delegates





Current (Feb 20, 2015) Republican Primary Map:



SC Gov Nikki Haley (Red): 14 States, 573 Delegates
IL Sen Mark Kirk (Blue): 14 States, 566 Delegates
NM Gov Susana Martinez (Green): 10 States & DC, 541 Delegates
NJ Gov Chris Christie (N/A - Out) - 7 Delegates

**Martinez is clearly not winning the popular vote, Haley and Kirk both claim to be winning it
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« Reply #41 on: May 09, 2011, 01:10:27 pm »
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The Udall-Coburn Immigration Bill goes to the floor of the Senate and passes 63-35 with 2 abstaining. Senator Mark Kirk votes in favor of the bill calling it a "common sense solution to a complicated problem" while Governor Haley condemns the passage of the bill saying it is allowing perpetrators to go unpunished for breaking the law. It will now go to the House of Representatives where Speaker John Boehner has said he will bring it to the floor but has not said if he supports the bill or not. Governor Martinez, like Senator Kirk, supports the bill.

Presumptive Democratic Nominee Eliot Spitzer also supports the bill.

President Obama's approval is around 43%, unemployment is around 6.8%.

March 4, 2015



The Wall Street Journal releases a  potential short-list Spitzer's pick for VP...

Former Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley
New Mexico Senator Martin Heinrich
Arizona Senator Rodney Glassman
North Carolina Senator Kay Hagan
Wisconsin Governor Tammy Baldwin
California Governor Gavin Newsom


Republican Primaries:

Martinez wins in Puerto Rico --no surprise for anyone however she does manage to pull off a coup d'etat in Texas narrowly defeating Mark Kirk.
Kirk has a small victory in Ohio narrowly defeating Haley and he also carries Rhode Island and Vermont...



SC Gov Nikki Haley (Red): 14 States, 658 Delegates
IL Sen Mark Kirk (Blue): 17 States, 672 Delegates
NM Gov Susana Martinez (Green): 11 States & DC, PR, 632 Delegates
NJ Gov Chris Christie (N/A - Out) - 7 Delegates
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« Reply #42 on: May 09, 2011, 01:56:44 pm »
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April 2016

President Obama's approval drops to 35% the lowest of his Presidency as his immigration bill fails to pass the House of Representatives 246-189 not along party lines but with all "Tea Party" Republicans joining conservative Democrats.

On April 22 Nikki Haley wins Pennsylvania by a 15 point margin. Going into May, Haley wins Indiana, North Carolina, Nebraska, Kentucky and South Dakota. Kirk wins Oregon and comes in second in all these races...

It is clear by the end of May that the Republican nomination will be decided in July at convention...


Republican Primary Full Results:



SC Gov Nikki Haley (Red): 16 States, 812 Delegates, 37.5% popular vote
IL Sen Mark Kirk (Blue): 22 States, 792 Delegates, 39.5% popular vote
NM Gov Susana Martinez (Green): 10 States & DC, 690 Delegates, 21.5% popular vote
NJ Gov Chris Christie (N/A - Out) - 7 Delegates
Other - 1.5% popular vote



President Obama vows to get an immigration package through as he brings Congressional leaders together to work out a compromise between the House and Senate.


May 30th 2016


Governor Eliot Spitzer announces that Nevada Senator Catherine Cortez Masto will be his running mate in 2016.

The move is applauded by Hispanic groups over the United States --she will be the first Hispanic nominee on a major party ticket for President.

Gallup: Do you approve of Governor Spitzer's pick of Senator Catherine Cortez Masto for Vice President?
Yes: 43%
No: 25%
Undecided/Unsure: 32%

Gallup: Is Senator Catherine Cortez Mastro qualified to be President?
Yes: 35%
No: 33%
Undecided/unsure: 32%

Gallup: Is...qualified to be President?

Spitzer:
Yes: 62%
No: 27%
Unsure: 11%

Kirk:
Yes: 58%
No: 20%
Unsure: 22%

Hayley:
Yes: 45%
No: 35%
Unsure: 20%

Martinez:
Yes: 27%
No: 30%
Unsure: 43%


 

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« Reply #43 on: May 09, 2011, 02:37:08 pm »
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June 2016

Republicans are in disarray as they realize they have no candidate going into the convention. Under new RNC rules, delegates must stay locked for the first two rounds of voting --every round after they are free to move to another candidate if desired. The three campaigns try to work together to form a coherent Convention while the Spitzer/Masto ticket and surrogates begin to campaign around the country.

Former President George W. Bush in a brief interaction with a reporter says he voted for Nikki Haley. Former President George H.W Bush says he voted for Mark Kirk asked the same question.


July 2016

The Republican Convention begins in Sacramento, California on Day 1 Round 1 and 2 of voting take place with the results of both rounds being the same.

Haley: 812 delegates
Kirk: 792 delegates
Martinez: 690 delegates

That night Senator Kirk is informed that the altered Udall-Coburn Immigration bill will come up for vote again the next day and his presence is requested in Washington DC.

Day 2

Right before the start of Round 3 of voting it is revealed that Senator Kirk has decided not to return to Washington DC and that the bill is in danger of failing for a second time.

Round 3:

Haley: 799
Kirk: 792
Martinez: 715

Some of Haley's and Kirk's delegates switch to Martinez for the first round of voting that delegates are free to vote for whoever.

Round 4:

Haley: 854
Kirk: 425
Martinez: 1,015

Haley and Martinez's numbers go up drastically as word gets around about the possible failure of the Udall-Coburn bill and Senator Kirk's decision to stay in California. Martinez gets on stage and tries to rally her supporters and calls for the passage of the bill.

Round 5:

Haley: 1,032
Kirk: 225
Martinez: 1,037

Martinez's increase begins to slow down as Haley comes back from being down.

The Udall-Coburn bill gets filibustered on the floor of the Senate right before the vote.

Day 3:

Round 6:

Haley: 1,116
Martinez: 1,121
Kirk: 57

Mark Kirk tells his remaining delegates to vote for someone else and returns to Washington DC seeing no viable chance of winning.

The Udall-Coburn bill comes up for a vote when Kirk arrives and passes 66-33-1. It goes onto the House of Representatives.

Round 7:

Martinez: 1,200
Haley: 1,094



After three days and seven rounds of voting New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez, who only received 22% of the popular vote in the Republican primaries, wins the Republican nomination at the Republican National Convention.

She will announce her Vice Presidential pick on the morning of the final day of the convention.
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« Reply #44 on: May 09, 2011, 03:04:37 pm »
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Day 4 of the RNC:

Republican Nominee Governor Susana Martinez announces her choice for Vice President...




...Senator Marco Rubio of Florida who was elected in the Republican landslide in 2010 and is currently 45 years old.

The House of Representatives passes the Udall-Coburn Immigration Bill by a slim majority.



Post-RNC Polling:

Martinez/Rubio: 48%
Spitzer/Casto: 40%
Undecided: 12%




President Obama appears at a campaign stop with presumptive Democratic nominee Eliot Spitzer shortly after the RNC.

Unemployment: 6.6%
Obama Approval: 50% (jumped after passage of the Immigration bill)
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« Reply #45 on: May 09, 2011, 03:29:53 pm »
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August 2016

Both campaigns continue to campaign vigorously throughout the summer. It quickly becomes clear that having two Hispanics on the Republican ticket has changed the Electoral map and math quite a bit.



The DNC Convention kicks off in late August, fairly unventful but gets the job done.



Post-DNC Polling:

Spitzer/Masto: 50%
Martinez/Rubio: 42%
Undecided: 8%
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« Reply #46 on: May 10, 2011, 02:55:03 pm »
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September 2016

The first debate ensues...

Immigration: Governors Martinez and Spitzer were both in favor of President Obama's reform package but Governor Martinez states that she "would like to see some changes regarding how quickly we move on getting these people onto the path" because she firmly believes that the people who applied legally for citizenship should be given precedent. Governor Sptizer changes gears talking about how we have to help find ways to invest in Mexico so people there have jobs and how this could be a mutualistic relationship. Spitzer gets hit by Martinez for at one time proposing drivers licenses for illegals. CNN notes that Martinez idea's on immigration resonates better with voters during the debate.


The Economy: Martinez states that substantial reforms to Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security are neccessary and that the next President needs "guts" to take them on. Spitzer points out his record as Governor of New York finding ways of balancing the budget --Martinez hits him for raising taxes in New York but Spitzer goes on how he helped keep property taxes under control.
CNN notes that Martinez idea's on Social Security/Medicare/Medicaid resonates better with voters but Spitzer does better on the economy overall.

Crime/Drugs: Spitzer touts his record as the Sheriff of Wall Street, Martinez says his campaign is being fed by Wall Street --Spitzer counters that he "plays by the rules he is given" and would "like to see no use of corporate funds in the election process." Spitzer is in favor of legalzing marijuana for personal use with some restrictions --Martinez is not and favors repealing medical marijuana programs.

CNN notes that Spitzer's idea's on immigration resonates better with voters during the debate.

At the end of the day, voters say that Spitzer won the debate 45-40 with the rest undecided.

End of September Aggregate Polls:

Martinez/Rubio: 45%
Spitzer/Masto: 41%
Undecided: 14%

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« Reply #47 on: May 10, 2011, 03:19:07 pm »
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September 11, 2016

President Obama invites Governor Andrew Cuomo of NY, former Governors Eliot Spitzer, George Pataki, Mario Cuomo and Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey to join him and former Presidents Bush and Clinton at Ground Zero to pay respect and to officially mark the opening of Freedom Tower 15 years after the World Trade Centers fell.

The project and completion had been delayed quite a few years due to bureaucracy and other problems.



President Obama Approval: 53%
Unemployment: 6.6%

Second Debate - Early October 2016

Foreign Policy --

Iraq - Both candidates agree that the downfall of Saddam was a good thing and that the remainder of troops should be brought home (40,000 are still present in a noncombat role).

Afghanistan - Spitzer pledges to keep some level of presence in Afghanistan but expresses the need to "refocus our priorities on places like Pakistan where Osama Bin Laden was found." Martinez is for suspending all aid to Pakistan and all countries that even remotely support terrorists which Spitzer is against saying "we need to help our allies stand up for themselves and not get pushed around by these thugs" Respondents are split on who's message resonates better.


Yemen - Martinez is in favor of increasing air strikes on the al-Qaeda stronghold and "using all our resources" to take down Yemen's leadership. Spitzer warns that her "wild west" attitude is not going to be taken seriously on the world stage and while he supports air strikes on Yemen he is concerned about losing the small and fragile coalition they have built around this cause.
Spitzer's message on Yemen resonates more with voters

China - Spitzer falls into the trap of "being professorial" and explaing a bit too deeply what economic policy he'd ensue on China while Martinez pulls a Donald Trump line of "they're ripping us off, and I'm going to stop them." Martinez's message resonates better but a majority have no opinion or are unsure.

Post-debate polls show that Martinez won this debate 39-35-26
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« Reply #48 on: May 12, 2011, 10:22:27 am »
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November 1, 2016

National Polling:

Martinez/Rubio: 48%
Spitzer/Masto: 45%
Other: 1%
Undecided: 6%

New Mexico Polling:

Martinez/Rubio: 54%
Spitzer/Masto: 43%
Undecided: 3%

New York Polling:

Spitzer/Masto: 57%
Martinez/Rubio: 35%
Undecided: 8%


Gallup Final Prediction: Martinez (273-265)
Ramussen Final Prediction: Martinez (328-210)
PPP Final Prediction: Spitzer (300-238)
CNN Final Prediction: Martinez (293-245)
NYT Final Prediction: Spitzer (295-243)
Average: Martinez 275 - 263

Eve of the election:

President Obama Approval: 48%
President Obama Dispaproval: 40%
Unemployment Rate: 6.5%



Governor Spitzer talking to local businessmen.



Governor Martinez traveling between campaign stops.



Senator Rubio leaving an early voting station.



Senator Masto speaking with doctors.
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« Reply #49 on: May 12, 2011, 10:43:07 am »
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Election Results:

Poll Closings @ 7:00pm

Wolf Blitzer: Kentucky, Indiana, Virginia, Vermont, South Carolina, Georgia and most of Florida just closed their polls. We should be getting results in shortly. There are allegations of voter fraud coming out of West Virginia --the Secretary of State there has issued a statement saying they're doing a full and immediate investigation--but otherwise this is a great day to vote all around the country with little or no rain nationally and decent temperatures for November.

The first state to be called tonight, is Kentucky which has given its 8 Electoral Votes to Governor Spitzer. We can also call Georgia's 16 Electoral Votes for Governor Martinez. Now if you remember the last time Kentucky went Democratic was 1996 for President Bill Clinton.
This one isn't a surprise, we can call Vermont for Governor Spitzer. It seems that we cannot call South Carolina and Virginia just yet.
'

7:30pm - Ohio, West Virginia and North Carolina close.

Blitzer: Our exit polling data shows that North Carolina is going to be very close tonight, but we can call Ohio and West Virginia for Governor Spitzer. We are also now ready to call South Carolina for Governor Martinez.

8:00pm - Mississippi, Alabama, remainder of Florida, most of Texas, Oklahoma, most of Kansas, some of South Dakota, Missouri, Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, rest of New Hampshire, and Maine close.

Blitzer: We can make a few more calls for the American people right now...Connecticut, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Illinois and Michigan all have gone in favor of Governor Spitzer.

We can also call Mississippi, Alabama, Florida and Oklahoma in favor of Governor Martinez.

Missouri, Tennessee, North Carolina, Virginia all remain too close to call right now.




Spitzer/Masto - 143 Electoral Votes
Martinez/Rubio - 76 Electoral Votes
Green = Polls closed, not called - 49 Electoral Votes
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