Brightest spots for Democrats

[nclib]

These six states appear to be the only bright spots for Democrats.

I vote Colorado.

[danwxman]

Montana is great news, but it doesn't mean anything nationally as I doubt Montana turns into a swing state in 2008.

Colorado is a different story, I think this will be a Dem leaning swing state by 2008.

[Alcon]

Montana is great news, but it doesn't mean anything nationally as I doubt Montana turns into a swing state in 2008.

Colorado is a different story, I think this will be a Dem leaning swing state by 2008.

I doubt it. More like a Republican-leaning swing state.

[opebo]

Illinois and Vermont were not surprises.  All the rest are trending Democrat, Colorado most importantly.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The solid preformance in State Legislatures.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

These six states appear to be the only bright spots for Democrats.

I vote Colorado.

also Minnesota! Kerry does better than Gore, Democrats pick up 13 state house seats.

[nclib]

Montana is great news, but it doesn't mean anything nationally as I doubt Montana turns into a swing state in 2008.

Montana won't be competitive at the presidential level anytime soon, but Burns could be vulnerable in 2006, especially if Schweitzer runs.

Burns barely won in 2000, when Bush won the state by 25 points.

[nclib]

Montana is great news, but it doesn't mean anything nationally as I doubt Montana turns into a swing state in 2008.

Colorado is a different story, I think this will be a Dem leaning swing state by 2008.

I doubt it. More like a Republican-leaning swing state.

Colo. was only 2 points from the national average, so it should definitely be targeted in 2008.

On the other hand, perhaps Kerry got a bounce from having been born there.

[Alcon]

Montana is great news, but it doesn't mean anything nationally as I doubt Montana turns into a swing state in 2008.

Colorado is a different story, I think this will be a Dem leaning swing state by 2008.

I doubt it. More like a Republican-leaning swing state.

Colo. was only 2 points from the national average, so it should definitely be targeted in 2008.

On the other hand, perhaps Kerry got a bounce from having been born there.

I do not think so. I simply think it was a gradual drift. States do not move with the national average. So, I believe that even in an event election, Colorado would be about where it was today, but a bit (maybe 1-2% more) pro-Kerry at most.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Actually, South Carolina was suprisingly bright for the Democrats, all things considered.  Bush showed less improvement here than he did nationally compared to 2000.  The Dems picked up a seat each in the  State House and the State Senate.  The Senate race was DeMint's to win and he did, but the GOP and its allies had to spend a lot more time and effort than they had hoped to.  SC is a long way from being a swing state, but I think the Dems can hope to pick up a constitutional office or two in '06.  Lt, Gov. and Sec of Agriculture are probably the likeliest targets and I think that the Dems will be able to keep the Superintendency, even if Inez decides to not run for re-election.

[dazzleman]

I voted Colorado because it is the closest on the list to flipping to the Democrats.

Montana will only swing to the Democrats under extraordinary circumstances, for the foreseeable future.  States like Vermont are already Democratic strongholds.  But Colorado seems to be within striking distance of going to the Democrats.  I certainly hope it won't.

[Huckleberry Finn]

Definitely Colorado, but also NH.

Colorado will be an important battlefield in 2008.

[Beet]

The solid preformance in State Legislatures.

I concur.

[TeePee4Prez]

I voted Colorado.

However, Southeastern PA, if it were a state, should at least be up there.  Dems picked up 2 state House seats in GOP-leaning Montgomery County (Josh Shapiro is in nini2287's sig).  Also, Kerry increased his margins in all but one county and Allyson Schwartz won PA-13 with ease I didn't even expect.  I know this is nothing compared to Colorado, but you have to consider the strongly negative attitudes towards Philly's Dem-controlled city government.  The fact that Allyson won NE Philly by 23 points when it has been rumored Schwartz said Street is a great mayor and Katz, who was popular in NE Philly, tore her out in the paper. 

I hope we can keep this going and get a competent Dem mayor, such as Jon Saidel,  in 2007.  It's a crying shame there are bad gerrymanders which the Dems are powerless in NE Philly to take some seats back, but in PA-170 Brendan Boyle will run again and do much better.

[Schmitz in 1972]

Last I heard Montana was still in doubt. According to an article I read it all depends on one district that finished in a tie between the Democrat and Constitution candidate. According to state law the governor gets to choose in a tie and logically she chose the Constitution candidate (whcih gives the Republicans control). However, the Democrats are as usual trying to mess with the democratic process by trying to stall until Schweitzer is inaugurated.

I'm not worried about Montana or Colorado for that matter. Both were won by Clinton in '92 but Dole in '96. The brightest spot was New Hampshire in my mind. I'm betting that the all Republican congressional delegation will not make it through the midterms.

[A18]

Why don't you think the GOP congressional delegation will survive the midterms in NH?

[Schmitz in 1972]

Because Gov. Benson was supposed to get re-elected but didn't. Neither Senate seat is up in '06 but at least one of the two House seats will probably switch.

[minionofmidas]

While I'd never rule it out, I doubt it.
Charlie Bass is popular, supposedly moderate, and gets a high personal vote. He's been sitting pretty in a (rather marginally) Democratic district for ages.
Jeb Bradley's district is Republican, tho marginally so.

[rbt48]

Actually, South Carolina was suprisingly bright for the Democrats, all things considered. Bush showed less improvement here than he did nationally compared to 2000. The Dems picked up a seat each in the State House and the State Senate. The Senate race was DeMint's to win and he did, but the GOP and its allies had to spend a lot more time and effort than they had hoped to. SC is a long way from being a swing state, but I think the Dems can hope to pick up a constitutional office or two in '06. Lt, Gov. and Sec of Agriculture are probably the likeliest targets and I think that the Dems will be able to keep the Superintendency, even if Inez decides to not run for re-election.

Your assertions about Democratic gains in the SC state legislature are not true.  Republicans gained 1 state house and 2 state senate seats.  http://www.ncsl.org/ncsldb/elect98/profile.cfm?yearsel=2004&statesel=SC

[Blue Rectangle]

Some notes on CO:
Kerry spent a lot of time and money on the state and visited Pueblo only a week before election.  In my opinion, this was a poor strategy that may have cost him OH and the election.  This also made CO a lot closer than it would have been.

The state has changed since 2000, but not dramatically.  The large influx of new residents (from CA and TX, mostly) has moderated the political environment rather than make it more Democratic.  In 2008, the state will still be leaning Republican (the Republican candidate can take the state easily in a close election, the Democrat can only carry it with a big win nationally).

The senate race here had the Republicans suffering from a touch of the Illinois syndrome.  I liked Coors, but he was not as prepared as he could have been for the race.  The party as a whole was unprepared and cocky.  Salazar is a popular and competent guy.  This race was a case of voters voting candidate and not party (clearly, as many Bush voters also voted Salazar).

The state legislature changes were due to purely internal matters and have little to do with the national parties.  Republicans have controlled both houses and the governorship for several years, including during the recent budget shortfalls that have affected most every state.  As is the case in many states, the budget problems have become a huge liability for incumbents.  Just as the recall in CA failed to put that state into the swing column, so does this change mean very little for 2008.

Another note:
Due to the disappearance of Nader as a factor, Bush's PV% in CO went from 50.75% in 2000 to 51.71% in 2004.

[Keystone Phil]

The fact that Allyson won NE Philly by 23 points when it has been rumored Schwartz said Street is a great mayor and Katz, who was popular in NE Philly, tore her out in the paper. 

I hope we can keep this going and get a competent Dem mayor, such as Jon Saidel,  in 2007.  It's a crying shame there are bad gerrymanders which the Dems are powerless in NE Philly to take some seats back, but in PA-170 Brendan Boyle will run again and do much better.

Alright this is the perfect situation, my friends, where PA 13/SE PA is brought up and it does have to do with this discussion so don't start complaining about us debating about it...

Schwartz won NE Philly by 23 points because the Brown campaign manager pretty much ignored this part of the district. I have told you this before. By volunteering with the campaign I was able to see these things so don't just think I'm trying to make excuses. The straight Dem voters also hurt more than I expected. But I do believe that if there was equal attention given to the NE Philly part of the district, Brown could have won here or atleast made it a 4 or 5 point difference.

As for the Philly Mayoral race in 2007, the Dems pretty much have it won unless Rizzo is the GOP nominee. Even then it will be difficult for a Republican to win. I'm not a fan of Saidel at all but I would prefer him over Johnny Doc, Wilson Goode, Jr., Chaka Fattah (yeah can you believe that one? Fattah is a rumored candidate in 2007 and apparently he had a meeting with Street about running. Mayor Fattah...now there's a scary thought...).

As for Boyle, he will run again and he will do better. However, I don't think he'll do much better. He received 42% of the vote this year. He'll probably get about 45% in '06. I think we can agree that he won't win it in two years. When the seat opens up, that's a different story.

(While I believe we are justified when we have this sort of conversation, I think we should try to keep this conversation to the PA 13 board.)

[Rococo4]

Benson was a big surprise, but the brightest spot for the Dems was when the election ended so they could try and regroup

[King]

ONE word for anybody that says Montana was good for Dems:

DINOs

[Hitchabrut]

CO