Swiss General Elections 2011 (Elections to the Federal Council)

[ZuWo]

For the record, I am going to be a vote counter in my (fairly liberal) electoral district at the election. The election is held on Sunday the 23rd of October but we are already going to start counting ballots on Saturday the 22nd. Thus, I might be able to make a very subjective forecast of the election outcome on Saturday evening - I hope this is legal as long as I am very vague in what I say.

[ZuWo]

This election campaign is much calmer than the campaign in 2007. The campaign of the SVP, which dominated the entire election cycle 4 years ago, appears quite cautious, at least rhetorically. And the other main parties don't fall into the same trap like in 2007 and try to push forward their messages more vigorously.
Additionally, the current economic uncertainty doesn't seem to play into the hands of the rightist SVP. It's not that the party doesn't propose solutions to the problems the Swiss export industry is currently facing, but many center-right people tend to trust the FDP more in economic matters. At the same time, the left always benefits in times of economic troubles.

However, the relatively boring campaign might help the SVP to gain more seats in the Council of States: State Councillors are elected in each canton in an absolute majority vote, and in order to increase its representation in this chamber, the SVP candidates have to appeal to more moderate voters as well.

[ZuWo]

The most recent (and last) poll by the polling institute gfs.bern reveals the following figures:

SVP 29.3 (+0.4%)
SP 19.9% (+0.4%)
FDP 15.2 (-2.5%)
CVP 14.2 (-0.3%)
Green Party 9.3% (-0.3%)
Green-Liberal Party 4.9% (+3.5%)
BDP 3.6% (+3.6%)

It seems that despite the lame election campaign the SVP manages to mobilize even more voters than 4 years ago ... this raises the question whether the party would be more successful if it toned down its rhetoric.
The left (SP, GP and minor left-wing parties) remains stable, while there are major movements in the center (FDP, CVP, GLP, BDP). Both the Green-Liberal Party and the BDP pose a threat to the FDP and, to a lesser extent, the CVP.

http://www.blick.ch/news/politik/wahlen2011/fdp-verliert-gruenliberale-und-bdp-gewinnen-184204

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Pagebreak!

[ZuWo]

Pagebreak!

No, a shorter link.

[Leftbehind]

If those trends hold, it will be the first time the SVP loses ground since several decades, right ?

Yes, that's right. The SVP has been on the rise since 1991. Since then, they have increased their vote share from 11.9% to 28.9%, and their strenght has gone hand in hand with the decline of other minor right-wing parties and traditional centrist parties. It seems the party has reached a ceiling now, but if they manage to remain above 25% that's still very impressive for Switzerland.

This link offers a detailed overview of previous elections with some maps.

http://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/portal/de/index/themen/17/02/blank/key/national_rat/parteienstaerke.html

Can you list what the acronyms stand for on the left? I can't see SPS there, and beyond the main ones I'm having difficulty finding what they are.

[ZuWo]

SPS - Sozialdemokratische Partei der Schweiz (Social Democratic Party of Switzerland)
CVP - Christlichdemokratische Volkspartei (Christian Democratic People's Party)
FDP - Freisinnig-Demokratische Partei (Free-Democratic Party)
SVP - Schweizerische Volkspartei (Swiss People's Party)
LPS - Liberale Partei der Schweiz (Liberal Party of Switzerland - merged with the FDP in 2009)
LdU - Landesring der Unabhängigen (The Ring of Independents - disbanded in 1999)
EVP - Evangelische Volkspartei der Schweiz (Evangelical People's Party of Switzerland)
CSP - Christlichsoziale Partei (Christian Social Party)
GLP - Grünliberale Partei der Schweiz (Green Liberal Party of Switzerland)
PdA/Solidarités - Partei der Arbeit der Schweiz/Solidarités (Swiss Party of Labour/Solidarities)
POCH - Progressive Organisationen der Schweiz (Progressive Organisations of Switzerland - disbanded in 1993)
GPS - Grüne Partei der Schweiz (Green Party of Switzerland)
SD - Schweizer Demokraten (Swiss Democrats)
EDU - Eidgenössich-Demokratische Union (Federal Democratic Union)
FPS - Freiheitspartei der Schweiz (Freedom Party of Switzerland)
Lega - Lega dei Ticinesi (Ticino League)

Red: Leftist Parties
Black: Centrist Parties
Green: Rightist Parties

[Leftbehind]

Cheers! No idea how I failed to spot SPS on there - must have been tiredness.

[ZuWo]

Cheers! No idea how I failed to spot SPS on there - must have been tiredness.

Well, the Swiss political landscape is complicated enough, so you shall be forgiven.

[ZuWo]

Meanwhile, the "SF Wahlbörse", the prediction market of the Swiss public television, has the following numbers at the moment (they are constantly changing, of course):

SVP - Schweizerische Volkspartei: 28,47%  (28,90%;  -0,43%) 
SP - Sozialdemokratische Partei 19,91%  (19,55%;  +0,36%)   
FDP-Lib - FDP.Die Liberalen 13,79%  (17,61%;  -3,82%)   
CVP - Christlichdemokratische Volkspartei  (12,96%;  14,48%;  -1,52%) 
Grüne - Grüne Partei der Schweiz 10,00%  (9,59%;  +0,41%) 
BDP - Bürgerlich-Demokratische Partei 4,25%  (0,00;  +4,25%) 
GLP - Grünliberale Partei 5,87%  (1,43%;  +4,44%) 

http://www.wahlboerse.srf.ch/

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

+ and - from the last election right? What kind of seat count would this be

[ZuWo]

+ and - from the last election right? What kind of seat count would this be

Yes, + and - mean from the last election.

Now regarding the seat count, this is extremely hard to predict. The members of the National Council are elected in each canton, and every party usually links its list of candidates with one or several other parties with a similar ideological background. Interestingly, parties link their list differently in every canton. So in Zurich, for example, the SVP links its list with the EDU, while the very same EDU links its list with the GLP in the canton Thurgau ... this obiviously has a huge impact on the distribution of the seats, which is difficult to predict right now.

[ZuWo]

The latest numbers of the prediction market "SF Wahlbörse":

SVP - Schweizerische Volkspartei: 28,85%  (28,90%;  -0,05%) 
SP - Sozialdemokratische Partei: 19,85%  (19,55%;  +0,30%)   
FDP-Lib - FDP.Die Liberalen: 13,80%  (17,61%;  -3,81%)   
CVP - Christlichdemokratische Volkspartei 13,19%  (14,48%;  -1,29%)   
Grüne - Grüne Partei der Schweiz: 9,20%  (9,59%;  -0,39%)   
BDP - Bürgerlich-Demokratische Partei: 4,13%  (0,00%;  +4,13%)
GLP - Grünliberale Partei: 5,71%  (1,43%;  +4,28%) 


http://www.wahlboerse.srf.ch/

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So the BDP have actually taken their voters from the FDP? Or is it more complicated?

[ZuWo]

So the BDP have actually taken their voters from the FDP? Or is it more complicated?

No, this is quite true actually. Despite being a SVP spin-off, the BDP draws most of its support from FDP and CVP voters and, to a lesser extent, from the pool of non-voters.

[Boris]

I've been kinda disappointed in the SVP's campaign. Is this really the best poster they could come up with:

[Tender Branson]

The Austrian "Standard" newspaper has a good overview:



They are just throwing anything into the picture ...

BTW: I think the SVP will remain at about 26-28%, while the BDP could get more than 5%.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why do nuclear plants look so important in this presentation ?

[ZuWo]

Why do nuclear plants look so important in this presentation ?

I think that's because after the crisis in Fukushima the idea of a nuclear phase out has dominated the political discourse in Switzerland for a couple of weeks. Eventually, the Swiss Federal Council decided to drop any plans to replace old nuclear power plants. In fact, most parties want a nuclear phase out now - though it appears highly utopian how this can be achieved. All these events had a certain impact on the election campaign, but recent surveys have shown that immigration has again become the most important topic for most Swiss people.

Now as for my predictions for the major parties:

SVP: 30.0%
SP: 19.5%
FDP: 15.0%
CVP: 14.0%
GPS: 9.5%
GLP: 5.0%
BDP: 3.5%

[Associate Justice PiT]

The Austrian "Standard" newspaper has a good overview:



They are just throwing anything into the picture ...

BTW: I think the SVP will remain at about 26-28%, while the BDP could get more than 5%.

     It may be a stupid question, but in the Bundesrat breakdown what is the significance of red vs. blue parties?

[ZuWo]

@PiT: Do you mean the "Nationalrat", the National Council?

The parties in red are part of the governing coalition and thus have at least 1 seat in the "Bundesrat", the Federal Council, while the parties in blue are outside of the government and therefore do not have any seat in the Federal Council.

[Associate Justice PiT]

@PiT: Do you mean the "Nationalrat", the National Council?

The parties in red are part of the governing coalition and thus have at least 1 seat in the "Bundesrat", the Federal Council, while the parties in blue are out of the government and therefore do not have any seat in the Federal Council.

     Ah, that explains my confusion. I didn't realize the distinction between the Nationalrat & the Bundesrat. It makes sense now.

[ZuWo]

I've just returned from my vote counting shift in my election district in Zurich. This year we started counting votes on Saturday so that the counting will be finished earlier on Sunday. We are not allowed to publish any numbers before noon tomorrow, but I will give you a hint regarding two parties: expect a very strong SVP and a great result for the Green-Liberal Party in the elections to the National Council.

[Tender Branson]

I've just returned from my vote counting shift in my election district in Zurich. This year we started counting votes on Saturday so that the counting will be finished earlier on Sunday. We are not allowed to publish any numbers before noon tomorrow, but I will give you a hint regarding two parties: expect a very strong SVP and a great result for the Green-Liberal Party in the elections to the National Council.

ZuWo, did you count all the early postal votes today ?

What percentage historically are the early postal votes compared with the total votes cast ?

And as you say, you expect a good result for the SVP based on the postal votes that you counted: Is it the same in Switzerland like in Austria that the SVP and GLP (like the ÖVP and Greens) are better with postal votes than with actual election day votes ?

[ZuWo]

I've just returned from my vote counting shift in my election district in Zurich. This year we started counting votes on Saturday so that the counting will be finished earlier on Sunday. We are not allowed to publish any numbers before noon tomorrow, but I will give you a hint regarding two parties: expect a very strong SVP and a great result for the Green-Liberal Party in the elections to the National Council.

ZuWo, did you count all the early postal votes today ?

What percentage historically are the early postal votes compared with the total votes cast ?

And as you say, you expect a good result for the SVP based on the postal votes that you counted: Is it the same in Switzerland like in Austria that the SVP and GLP (like the ÖVP and Greens) are better with postal votes than with actual election day votes ?

Yes, we counted all postal votes (roughly 8800 votes) in my election district, which accounts for more than 80% of the total number of votes. Thus, with around 20'000 people eligible to vote turnout will be a bit higher than 50%, which is quite high. More and more people have voted by post in the recent years, and as far as I know there is no great discrepancy between the postal vote and the votes cast on election day. (In Switzerland you can cast your vote on election day between 10 and 12 am, that's only 2 hours!) That's why I think the results are not going to change by much when the few remaining votes that will be cast tomorrow are counted.