NV-02 special election: 9/13

[Meeker]

There was an error on the Nevada SoS page.

[Miles]

58-37 Amodei with just over 10%.

[rbt48]

I'm having a hard time understanding why this race hasn't been called yet. 

[Torie]

The voters wanted to send Obama a message. Both CD's were national election statements. The Dems lost everything but the Obama base. Almost all the swing voters went GOP - and then some. That sometimes happens in special elections.

[cinyc]

I'm having a hard time understanding why this race hasn't been called yet. 

Not enough of Washoe in, I suppose, where Amodei "only" leads Marshall by 8.

In any rational projecting world, this is long over.

[rbt48]

Yes, I suppose I'm just called to National Election Nights where the networks call states 5 seconds after the polls close before any raw totals are released.  Well, except for Texas which they always seem to drag on even if the Republican ends up winning by >10%.

[rbt48]

AP just called it for Amodei.

[Sbane]

So Obama would lose Nevada by about 4-6 points currently(if not worse)?

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

So Obama would lose Nevada by about 4-6 points currently(if not worse)?

With a special election electorate, maybe. Why would you try to draw conclusions about how an Obama-Perry or Obama-Romney race would be like in Nevada right now based off of this race?

[Sbane]

Ok, Perry is a retard and people would probably think twice before voting for him. I am exaggerating a bit, sure. But these results are really bad news. The Dems losing Washoe by 10 points? How can you spin that positively?

[Miles]

I really wasn't expecting this much of a blowout...

Amodei up almost exactly 20 points with 80% in.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Ok, Perry is a retard and people would probably think twice before voting for him. I am exaggerating a bit, sure. But these results are really bad news. The Dems losing Washoe by 10 points? How can you spin that positively?

Marshall was outspent here 3 to 1 or 4 to 1, her campaign narratives were far too right wing to inspire higher turnout from more apathetic left wingers and Amodei did a good job of refuting her attacks on entitlements which were falling flat anyways because of the Paul Ryan plan being out of the news cycle for months.

I'm not trying to spin these results positively, I just don't understand why you'd apply them to the Presidential race. At the very least, Obama would run even in Washoe County.

[Sbane]

I think right now Obama would lose to Romney by at least 4-6 points in Washoe(and Nevada), if not more. Perry is a wildcard. Look, this doesn't mean the Dems have lost their support everywhere. Just in specific places and with constituents they need to win in order to win the Presidency, or the House, or Garamendi's seat. Or for that matter Mcnerney. He is going to have a tough fight as well. Those sorts of areas are rapidly trending away from the Democrats, and they actually swung towards Obama in 2008. Not that this is too surprising. These are the areas hit hardest by the recession.

[Sam Spade]

Romney would present real problems in Nevada because of the Mormon thing.  I would not underestimate that - it's probably worth a couple of percentage points.

[krazen1211]

Marshall was a reasonable candidate in a statewide office. Anyone claiming otherwise is untruthful.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Marshall was a reasonable candidate in a statewide office. Anyone claiming otherwise is untruthful.

Coakley was a reasonable candidate in a statewide office. Anyone claiming otherwise is untruthful.

[krazen1211]

Marshall was a reasonable candidate in a statewide office. Anyone claiming otherwise is untruthful.

Coakley was a reasonable candidate in a statewide office. Anyone claiming otherwise is untruthful.

Obama has quite the talent for destruction.

[Miles]

Marshall was a reasonable candidate in a statewide office. Anyone claiming otherwise is untruthful.

Coakley was a reasonable candidate in a statewide office. Anyone claiming otherwise is untruthful.

Obama has quite the talent for destruction.

I agree. He's the worst thing to happen to southern Democrats since Reconstruction.

[Joe Republic]

A pair of quick n' dirty and not too interesting maps:





Final result:  58% :: 36%

[Niemeyerite]

This is the first time in at least 4 years a republican underpolls in NV =)

[Guderian]

What a massacre. I expected Amodei to win by 10-12 and hoped for 15.

[J. J.]

Marshall was a reasonable candidate in a statewide office. Anyone claiming otherwise is untruthful.

Coakley was a reasonable candidate in a statewide office. Anyone claiming otherwise is untruthful.

Obama has quite the talent for destruction.

I agree. He's the worst thing to happen to southern Democrats since Reconstruction.

And the worst thing to happen domestically since the Civil War. 

[Keystone Phil]

Dominated.

[BigSkyBob]

Man, I wish PPP would poll there ...

I think this race will turn out closer than most people think (Marshall could be within 5 points).

I think it'll be closer than that... Marshall is running basically the same campaign as Hochul did in NY-26 and that was an R+6 district. This one is R+5.

Two bad calls.

[BigSkyBob]

NV-02 is less Republican than NY-26, so I still think its a tossup.

Interesting call. Didn't quite work out.