NV-02 special election: 9/13

[BigSkyBob]

Well, well:

In 2010, the first few days of early voting In Washoe were R+7, but Reid won by 5.

Now, the first few days of early voting are R+14.5.

Assuming the winning margin stays the same, it's Amodei by 2.5 points.

I don't really think Marshall can win this thing, she'll probably lose by 10% in the end.

Much better call.

[Tender Branson]

Man, I wish PPP would poll there ...

I think this race will turn out closer than most people think (Marshall could be within 5 points).

I think it'll be closer than that... Marshall is running basically the same campaign as Hochul did in NY-26 and that was an R+6 district. This one is R+5.

Two bad calls.

That was before anybody polled the race.

My prediction for the special election is:

54.75% Amodei (R)
40.53% Marshall (D)
  4.72% Others

[BigSkyBob]

Man, I wish PPP would poll there ...

I think this race will turn out closer than most people think (Marshall could be within 5 points).

I think it'll be closer than that... Marshall is running basically the same campaign as Hochul did in NY-26 and that was an R+6 district. This one is R+5.

Two bad calls.

That was before anybody polled the race.

The measure of a good pundit is the ability to project races before reading any polls.

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[krazen1211]

Well, either that or it could have been a bunch of Democrats who called the blog to discredit the Magellan company ...

That's a bit of a stretch. You have to admit that the poll was very lopsided. It's doubtful that Marshall will get less than 40% of the vote, it's not like she's some random candidate. PPP has the a better record of accuracy of Magellan, anyway.

Quoted for truth!

[minionofmidas]

58-36? Ouch!

[cinyc]

Romney would present real problems in Nevada because of the Mormon thing.  I would not underestimate that - it's probably worth a couple of percentage points.

The Mormon thing hasn't hurt Harry Reid in Nevada.  Nevada has a decent sized Mormon population.  Whatever Nevada anti-Mormon vote there is should be offset by the Mormon vote.

[Guderian]

Romney would present real problems in Nevada because of the Mormon thing.  I would not underestimate that - it's probably worth a couple of percentage points.

The Mormon thing hasn't hurt Harry Reid in Nevada.  Nevada has a decent sized Mormon population.  Whatever Nevada anti-Mormon vote there is should be offset by the Mormon vote.

He probably meant that Romney would present problems to Democrats in Nevada because he's Mormon, not that he would have problems because of anti-Mormon bias.

Anyway, Nate Silver made an interesting point about this being arguably more relevant of the two specials held - New York 9th has been trending Republican for a decade, so Turner being elected is just an acceleration of previous trends. Nevada 2nd on the other hand, has been trending Democratic over the last few elections.

[Miles]

This is the first time in at least 4 years a republican underpolls in NV =)

Damn; our predictions were really off, Julio!

[Miles]

NV-02 is less Republican than NY-26, so I still think its a tossup.

Interesting call. Didn't quite work out.

I know you really enjoy calling me out, Bobby, but, at the time, it looked like a competitive race.

[BigSkyBob]

NV-02 is less Republican than NY-26, so I still think its a tossup.

Interesting call. Didn't quite work out.

I know you really enjoy calling me out, Bobby, but, at the time, it looked like a competitive race.

At the time, you claimed it was not merely "competitive," but, rather, that it was a "tossup."  That was quite an interesting claim for a district with a Republican PVI.

[Joe Republic]

Hey, Republicans haven't exactly had a stellar track record of holding on to their own seats in special elections of late, so people who expected this to be closer (or even an upset) should be forgiven.  It's easy for Republicans to gloat now, but a few months ago B.S.Bob was nowhere near this thread...

[Sbane]

Romney would present real problems in Nevada because of the Mormon thing.  I would not underestimate that - it's probably worth a couple of percentage points.

The Mormon thing hasn't hurt Harry Reid in Nevada.  Nevada has a decent sized Mormon population.  Whatever Nevada anti-Mormon vote there is should be offset by the Mormon vote.

Yeah, Sam meant the opposite. Actually Romney's mormonism won't hurt him most anywhere out west. In the south and lower midwest, not so sure. Not that it will cause him to lose but it might be worth a point or two there.

[BigSkyBob]

Hey, Republicans haven't exactly had a stellar track record of holding on to their own seats in special elections of late, so people who expected this to be closer (or even an upset) should be forgiven.  It's easy for Republicans to gloat now, but a few months ago B.S.Bob was nowhere near this thread...

1) A few months ago I was sweating it. Had I posted, I wouldn't have grossly overestimated Amodei chances, like many of the Democrats here vastly overestimated Marshall's chances.


2) I'm not reviewing predictions to "gloat." I reviewed the predictions to discuss the relative accuracies of the posters here.


3) "Gloating" isn't really necessary. I sat through the nomination of George H W Bush, George W Bush, and the resulting elections of 1992, 2006, and 2008.  We all know how much last night sucked for the Democrats. There is no point in rubbing it since it already sucks so badly. It was a pretty painful night, right?

[Sam Spade]

Romney would present real problems in Nevada because of the Mormon thing.  I would not underestimate that - it's probably worth a couple of percentage points.

The Mormon thing hasn't hurt Harry Reid in Nevada.  Nevada has a decent sized Mormon population.  Whatever Nevada anti-Mormon vote there is should be offset by the Mormon vote.

Yeah, Sam meant the opposite. Actually Romney's mormonism won't hurt him most anywhere out west. In the south and lower midwest, not so sure. Not that it will cause him to lose but it might be worth a point or two there.

Yes, I meant plus not minus, in Nevada context specifically.  It's always been a plus for Harry too.

[Torie]

Romney would present real problems in Nevada because of the Mormon thing.  I would not underestimate that - it's probably worth a couple of percentage points.

The Mormon thing hasn't hurt Harry Reid in Nevada.  Nevada has a decent sized Mormon population.  Whatever Nevada anti-Mormon vote there is should be offset by the Mormon vote.

Yeah, Sam meant the opposite. Actually Romney's mormonism won't hurt him most anywhere out west. In the south and lower midwest, not so sure. Not that it will cause him to lose but it might be worth a point or two there.

Yes, I meant plus not minus, in Nevada context specifically.  It's always been a plus for Harry too.

I had thought Sam that you had lost your marbles there for a moment, but decided not to say anything as a professional courtesy.

[Sam Spade]

Romney would present real problems in Nevada because of the Mormon thing.  I would not underestimate that - it's probably worth a couple of percentage points.

The Mormon thing hasn't hurt Harry Reid in Nevada.  Nevada has a decent sized Mormon population.  Whatever Nevada anti-Mormon vote there is should be offset by the Mormon vote.

Yeah, Sam meant the opposite. Actually Romney's mormonism won't hurt him most anywhere out west. In the south and lower midwest, not so sure. Not that it will cause him to lose but it might be worth a point or two there.

Yes, I meant plus not minus, in Nevada context specifically.  It's always been a plus for Harry too.

I had thought Sam that you had lost your marbles there for a moment, but decided not to say anything as a professional courtesy.

I will admit to the statement being poorly worded, very true.

[BigSkyBob]

Romney would present real problems in Nevada because of the Mormon thing.  I would not underestimate that - it's probably worth a couple of percentage points.

The Mormon thing hasn't hurt Harry Reid in Nevada.  Nevada has a decent sized Mormon population.  Whatever Nevada anti-Mormon vote there is should be offset by the Mormon vote.

Yeah, Sam meant the opposite. Actually Romney's mormonism won't hurt him most anywhere out west. In the south and lower midwest, not so sure. Not that it will cause him to lose but it might be worth a point or two there.

Yes, I meant plus not minus, in Nevada context specifically.  It's always been a plus for Harry too.

Reid's being a Mormon, and his claims to being "pro-life" have benefited him politically. His supporters have characterized him by saying, "He's a Mormon, and he's pro-life..."  tapping into Mormon stereotypes of extreme conservativism. The reality is that Reid is hard left.

[Brittain33]

Never been less tempted to hit "show" than in this thread.

[krazen1211]

@RalstonFlash

Glen Bolger poll for NV retailers shows @SenDeanHeller leading @RepBerkley in #nvsen, 48-42. Key is edge w/indies (52-23). Posting details.

[Torie]

Never been less tempted to hit "show" than in this thread.

You have not missed out on much. Part of it is the repetition. At least I try to say something new, even if what I say sucks.   But it isn't quite as bad as this Orthodox Jew thing and NY-09 and gays, which has now moved on to NJ.  The drum on that one lost its sound ages ago.  LOL.