Obama vs. Daniels

[courts]

Maybe if you shoved a shotgun in my mouth I'd vote for Daniels, but I'd have to think about it.

[Tender Branson]

Barack Obama (D)

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Hey Bacon, give us your new map for this one two.

[Mehmentum]

and here I was thinking that this was a right wing forum...

[ucscgaldamez]

Obama! I'm starting to approve of his performance.

[Yelnoc]

Hey Bacon, give us your new map for this one two.

I'm Yelnoc...

But sure, coming right up.

[Yelnoc]

If the most recent Paul map was too harsh on him, this one is definitely too harsh on Daniels.  Is this evidence we are a left-leaning board

Obama 349
Daniels 189

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Oops.

This is proof we are a left-wing board, albeit with Libertarian leanings.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

I hope opebo won't ever call this a right-wing forum again.

[Penelope]

If the most recent Paul map was too harsh on him, this one is definitely too harsh on Daniels.  Is this evidence we are a left-leaning board

Obama 349
Daniels 189

Or maybe Daniels is just not a very spectacular candidate.

[Yelnoc]

Here is more like what I think would actually happen, assuming the economy continues sluggish growth and we somehow forget about foreigns and nothing major happens over the next year and a half (aka this won't happen in the real world but it's more realistic that the last map).

Basically, Republican areas are naturally a little more Republican because of the Tea Party movement (resulting in better base mobilization).  This shores up states like Montana, Missouri, North Carolina, Florida, and NE-02, which were on both side of the edge in 2008.  Despite Daniels' regional appeal, Wisconsin and Iowa stay with Obama because of the respective weakness and strength of the governors.  Daniels of course takes back India and Ohio and makes it a close race in Michigan, though in the end the black vote trumps the states economic woes.  

Colorado narrowly goes for Daniels because of his appeal to the youth vote along with the state's trend of voting against the incumbent.  Virginia is a close hold for Obama; the states shifting demographics have made it into a permanent tossup state.  In the end, the race comes down to the Philly suburbs, with Daniels barely beating Obama out.

Daniels 282
Obama 256

[Penelope]

Above: Pro-Daniels biased map.

[Yelnoc]

Above: Pro-Daniels biased map.

Did you read the scenario?  I don't see how it's pro-Daniels if the economy continues with sluggish growth...I thought that implied gas prices only slowly lowering and staying in the mid $3 range?

[Penelope]

Above: Pro-Daniels biased map.

Did you read the scenario?  I don't see how it's pro-Daniels if the economy continues with sluggish growth...I thought that implied gas prices only slowly lowering and staying in the mid $3 range?

Remember how Daniels was OMB for the Bush Administration? Remember how his tenure as OMB saw a billions dollar surplus turn into twice of a deficit?

The ads practically write themselves people. Throw in some footage of his inevitable talking points about lowering the deficit, and talk about his tenure as OMB for the Bush Admin, win several hundred to several thousand votes.

Anyway, even with those circumstances, Obama could likely carry Ohio and Pennsylvania. If gas prices are slowly lowering, then they should be 2.50 range by election day. I could see NH going for Daniels, maybe. I agree that'd it be a close election though.

[Yelnoc]

Above: Pro-Daniels biased map.

Did you read the scenario?  I don't see how it's pro-Daniels if the economy continues with sluggish growth...I thought that implied gas prices only slowly lowering and staying in the mid $3 range?

Remember how Daniels was OMB for the Bush Administration? Remember how his tenure as OMB saw a billions dollar surplus turn into twice of a deficit?

The ads practically write themselves people. Throw in some footage of his inevitable talking points about lowering the deficit, and talk about his tenure as OMB for the Bush Admin, win several hundred to several thousand votes.

Anyway, even with those circumstances, Obama could likely carry Ohio and Pennsylvania. If gas prices are slowly lowering, then they should be 2.50 range by election day. I could see NH going for Daniels, maybe. I agree that'd it be a close election though.

I don't know why Daniels would have more appeal in New Hampshire than Ohio.  And if Gas Prices hit the mid $4 range as they likely will this summer, slowly lowering would still leave them in the mid $3's.  If Daniels can point to an economy that is little better now than it was 4 years ago, he has an even shot.  And you'll notice, his win in Pennsylvania was by 40%, i.e. Obama was within a few hundred votes of being reelected.  This is scenario is likely Florida 2000 all over again.

[Franzl]

Obama for now, especially considering the likely Senate after 2012. Happily willing to listen to Daniels, though.

[auburntiger]

Leaning toward Daniels, but definitely considering pulling the lever for Obama next year depending on who they nominate.

[stegosaurus]

At the moment I would be more predisposed to vote for Obama, but that could change as the campaign went on. I like that Daniels is at least a moderately sane Republican and not a foaming at the mouth nationalist.

[Dgov]

Remember how Daniels was OMB for the Bush Administration? Remember how his tenure as OMB saw a billions dollar surplus turn into twice of a deficit?

The ads practically write themselves people. Throw in some footage of his inevitable talking points about lowering the deficit, and talk about his tenure as OMB for the Bush Admin, win several hundred to several thousand votes.

. . . A Trend that caused him to resign his position as director of the OMB in protest.  There's a reason Bush had to replace him 2 years in.

[Penelope]

Remember how Daniels was OMB for the Bush Administration? Remember how his tenure as OMB saw a billions dollar surplus turn into twice of a deficit?

The ads practically write themselves people. Throw in some footage of his inevitable talking points about lowering the deficit, and talk about his tenure as OMB for the Bush Admin, win several hundred to several thousand votes.

. . . A Trend that caused him to resign his position as director of the OMB in protest.  There's a reason Bush had to replace him 2 years in.

No, I realize that. I'm just saying that even reminding people of the fact that Daniels was director of the OMB will gain Obama political points.

[pbrower2a]

Daniels would win his own state (where he has some popularity), but he would lose Arizona. The Favorite Son effect applies -- unless someone shows evidence that Governor Daniels is underwater politically in Indiana as are new Republican governors of Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. I see no reason to believe that he is the travesty that Trump, Palin, or even Gingrich is... yet. If such unpopularity shows up, thenhe is a travesty in the sense that Palin, Trump, and Gingrich are.


Arizona is on the brink of a disaster for the GOP. Jan Brewer has faded from decisively approved to about even in approval; the two Senators are underwater, so you have a trifecta of political leaders who could not help him. President Obama could win this state because of the widely-despised effort of House Republicans to legislate the privatization of Social Security.

Indiana rarely gets polled because automatic polling is illegal there. 

[Yelnoc]

Is that map what you think would actually happen or what the poll in this thread indicates?

[ZuWo]

Daniels, because he seems like a reasonable Republican.

[pbrower2a]

Is that map what you think would actually happen or what the poll in this thread indicates?

It is a modification of your map. It is a near-wash. I can think of some potential Republican' nominees who would lose Indiana.

The mystery remains: how popular is Mitch Daniels in his own state? Indiana offers few polls. I am assume that he is more popular than Governors of Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Maine, and Florida... probably Georgia as well. 

The Favorite Son effect is real for a Presidential candidate well-liked in his state, and it is generally worth about 10%. It works both forward (Dubya did about 10% better than Dole in Texas in 2000 and about 10% better in 2004 in Texas than did McCain). South Dakota, which seemingly never votes more Democratic than the average, voted more D than the average in 1972 for George McGovern. McGovern still lost South Dakota, but not by the whopping margins by which he lost North Dakota and Nebraska, states fairly similar in politics to South Dakota.  John McCain won Arizona by about 9%, much in contrast to Colorado and Nevada, probably the states most similar in demographics to Arizona. In 1976, Carter won Ohio but Ford won Michigan, usually the opposite of what goes on in most yearsif the two states don;t vote togethe -- but Gerald Ford was well-respected in Michigan.

Sure, it doesn't always apply. In 1920, Harding (R, Ohio) vs. Cox (D, Ohio) the effect was an obvious wash. Obama did about as well in Massachusetts in 2008 as Kerry did in 2004, but that could say more about Massachusetts, which hasn't been a swing state for decades.  It is of no help to a politician disliked in his own state. if the Republican nominee is Michelle Bachmann, then Obama wins Minnesota; if the Republicans nominate Santorum, then Obama wins Pennsylvania -- big. A State generally knows its politicians very well, flaws and virtues alike. Al Gore lost Tennessee because he became a national figure who forgot his Tennessee roots in a close election. If Russ Feingold were to be the 2012 Presidential nominee as the result of some unforeseen events, then he would do well in Wisconsin. Scott Walker would do catastrophically in Wisconsin.

   

[Penelope]

The result of this poll is probably pretty close to the actual result we would get. Of course, it will be a few points more favorable to Daniels, maybe 52% to 47%, or somewhere along those lines.

Obama/Biden - 359 - 52.7%
Daniels/??? - 179 - 47.3%