2016: John Lynch/Amy Klobuchar (D) vs. Susana Martinez/John Hoeven (R)

[Skill and Chance]

Lynch serves as governor of NH until 2014, then he is appointed Secretary of Commerce by Obama.  Martinez is Re-elected as governor of NM with over 60% of the vote in 2014.  Hoeven and Klobuchar both remain in the Senate. 

Details: HCR loses the individual mandate, but the rest of the law goes into full effect in 2014.  In 2013, Obama and a narrowly Republican House agree to balance the budget by 2020 by eliminating a wide range of government subsidies, phasing out public pensions, adding $500K and $1 M tax brackets, and creating a VAT tied to the size of the yearly deficit. 

Lynch wants to means-test social security and medicare and phase out new tax brackets, is pro-choice and publicly supports gay marriage.  Martinez wants protectionist trade policies and a permanent "millionaires tax" on social justice grounds and is very pro-life.

Scenario 1: Obama is narrowly re-elected in 2012 against Daniels or Romney, with unemployment at 8.0%.  The economy grows slowly. Unemployment drops to 6.9% by the fall of 2016 and this appears to be the new normal.  Obama is at 45% approval in Nov. 2016 

Scenario 2: Obama is re-elected in a landslide against a fringe candidate with 6.9% unemployment and "Morning in America II: Yes We Did" conditions in 2012.  Unemployment drops to 4.0% by the fall of 2016 and Obama has 60% approval in Nov. 2016   

EDIT: Cleaned it up a bit

[FalselyImperturbable]

I think Scenario 1 is more likely, with Romney being the GOP nominee. In 2016, it would be close but Lynch would pull it out.

[Skill and Chance]

I agree that Scenario 1 is more likely, but Scenario 2 is interesting because it becomes a social issues election with 4% unemployment.  You might  think Lynch will dominate scenario 2 just because of his connection to Obama, but that didn't work for Gore.  Most importantly, this would be the furthest right for the Dems on economic issues since before Bryan and the furthest left for the GOP since Teddy Roosevelt.

[Napoleon]

the furthest left for the GOP since Teddy Roosevelt.

I don't see it.

[Skill and Chance]

Scenario 1

Basically a pure toss up, but with some non-traditional swing states.

Scenario 2

Lynch has a heavy advantage, but Martinez can still thread the needle and win like Bush 2000.

[NHI]

1.

2.

[sentinel]

A girl i used to really like is originally from New Mexico, so it would make my support for Martinez and the campaign even more personal to me.

A kid I went to Sunday School with when I was five moved to Arizona. Looks like I should have voted for John McCain because I know someone who lives in his state.

[Skill and Chance]

This is what I think Scenario 1 would look like, with percentages:

John Lynch/Amy Klobuchar 50.1%   283 EV
Susana Martinez/John Hoeven 48.9% 255 EV

CO is the closest state, decided by <600 votes and PA is the margin of victory for Lynch by about 5000 votes

CA is a Democratic scare: Lynch wins with about 53% due to unusually strong support for Martinez in Southern California.

Because their home states are both small, I assumed the home state effects would extend to all of New England for Lynch (probably true- see Kerry in NH) and all of the Southwest for Martinez (didn't work for McCain, but she has another advantage he didn't).

AZ and TX are ~59% for Martinez and NV ~54%

[Yelnoc]

A girl i used to really like is originally from New Mexico, so it would make my support for Martinez and the campaign even more personal to me.

A kid I went to Sunday School with when I was five moved to Arizona. Looks like I should have voted for John McCain because I know someone who lives in his state.

There is no comparison. shut up

Think before you post, please.

[MAINEiac4434]

Can we get back on topic please?

I've liked Lynch more than I've liked my own Democratic governor (John Baldacci) and a hell of a lot more than my current tebagging governor, Paul LePage. Unashamedly Liberal in a purple state. While I don't think right now he has current-enough name recognition, you never know by 2016.

Martinez would be a smart move by the GOP, a latina would definitely shake things up a bit, even moreso because isn't running 2012. I have a feeling that some of the...shall we say "border security advocates" (the names "Tancredo" and "Santorum" spring to mind) in the GOP may not like her initially, but her stances on social issues, which are the polar opposites of Lynch, should change them.

[Skill and Chance]

Can we get back on topic please?

I've liked Lynch more than I've liked my own Democratic governor (John Baldacci) and a hell of a lot more than my current tebagging governor, Paul LePage. Unashamedly Liberal in a purple state. While I don't think right now he has current-enough name recognition, you never know by 2016.

Martinez would be a smart move by the GOP, a latina would definitely shake things up a bit, even moreso because isn't running 2012. I have a feeling that some of the...shall we say "border security advocates" (the names "Tancredo" and "Santorum" spring to mind) in the GOP may not like her initially, but her stances on social issues, which are the polar opposites of Lynch, should change them.

Being that you're from the area, do you think I overdid it with Lynch's "New England boost"?  Even though NE is Dem inclined, winning >60% of the vote in the whole region could be a bit much for a 50-50 national election.

[MAINEiac4434]

Can we get back on topic please?

I've liked Lynch more than I've liked my own Democratic governor (John Baldacci) and a hell of a lot more than my current tebagging governor, Paul LePage. Unashamedly Liberal in a purple state. While I don't think right now he has current-enough name recognition, you never know by 2016.

Martinez would be a smart move by the GOP, a latina would definitely shake things up a bit, even moreso because isn't running 2012. I have a feeling that some of the...shall we say "border security advocates" (the names "Tancredo" and "Santorum" spring to mind) in the GOP may not like her initially, but her stances on social issues, which are the polar opposites of Lynch, should change them.

Being that you're from the area, do you think I overdid it with Lynch's "New England boost"?  Even though NE is Dem inclined, winning >60% of the vote in the whole region could be a bit much for a 50-50 national election.

No, I don't think you overdid NE. There's really only one truly "swing state" in New England, and that's NH (which I can say is pretty safe for Lynch). Mass. and Vermont are both among the bluest...err, red-est states in the union. CT and RI are pretty safe for the Ds too. Maine is more purple than blue, but we like moderates and New Englanders (at least recently) so I think that Lynch would be the golden boy here in this state.

Sorry about my delay in responding