Bin Laden Dead- What Happens Now?

[King]

The economy has already been sparked thanks to the Republicans, Mr. Karger. Just ask cinyc about how great a small drop in unemployment is now.

[pbrower2a]

Obama vs. marginal, non-nutcase Republican, 2012. It would be about a 57-42 popular margin and roughly a replay of Eisenhower 1956:

Obama/Biden     463
Sacrificial Lambs   85

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Obama vs. marginal, non-nutcase Republican, 2012. It would be about a 57-42 popular margin and roughly a replay of Eisenhower 1956:

Stop trolling.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Obama vs. marginal, non-nutcase Republican, 2012. It would be about a 57-42 popular margin and roughly a replay of Eisenhower 1956:

Stop trolling.

[sentinel]

Obama vs. marginal, non-nutcase Republican, 2012. It would be about a 57-42 popular margin and roughly a replay of Eisenhower 1956:

Stop trolling.

I think pbrowers insights are reassuring

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Obama vs. marginal, non-nutcase Republican, 2012. It would be about a 57-42 popular margin and roughly a replay of Eisenhower 1956:

Stop trolling.

[Wiz in Wis]

One possible political outcome that has only been mentioned in passing is that this might scare off some "serious" Republicans from challenging Obama. If he appears formidable, people like Mitch Daniels and John Huntsman might just as soon wait for 2016.

That makes it ever so slightly easier for Obama to get reelected, but not much else long term.

[Cincinnatus]

One possible political outcome that has only been mentioned in passing is that this might scare off some "serious" Republicans from challenging Obama. If he appears formidable, people like Mitch Daniels and John Huntsman might just as soon wait for 2016.

That makes it ever so slightly easier for Obama to get reelected, but not much else long term.

I hope it doesn't scare anyone off.  Otherwise, we might end up with Trump representing us... Gag*

[NHI]

This is certainly a boost for Pres. Obama in the short term, but it will not deliver his reelection. The economy is going to be the overriding issue in 2012.

However, right now let us avoid the political debate and rejoice in this victory for America.

[Dan the Roman]

The real hope for Obama here is that Bin Laden's death sparks a psychological change that leads to a sharp economic recovery.

^ This

Its mainly mental, and I don't think hat impact can be overplayed. I was out last night on Boston Common at 2AM, and there were hundred there. I think this is a meaningful generational moment, and that could help Obama leaving aside everything else. But its indirect at best.

It is, however, I feel, much more likely to hurt the GOP than help Obama. The GOP has been running on pessimism the last year and a half. Whether it is the Ryan Budget, or the language, every GOP candidate has been playing an America in decline, the world getting worse, we must live with less, narrative. That is not how Reagan or frankly anyone except maybe Nixon in 1968 ever won, and evidence is that while it is good at tanking an incumbent's numbers, it is not something people will vote for. Bin Laden's death helps shift the mood, which is a bad thing for Paul Ryan.

[Reaganfan]

This is certainly a boost for Pres. Obama in the short term, but it will not deliver his reelection. The economy is going to be the overriding issue in 2012.

However, right now let us avoid the political debate and rejoice in this victory for America.

Agree, but his chances do increase.

Marco Rubio might be happy today more than usual as well.

[pbrower2a]

It's a guess.

A great burden has vanished from the American people -- the idea that a horrible person got away with mass murder of Americans. There are more terrorists to capture -- most notably Ayman al-Zawahiri, long-time lieutenant of Usama bin Laden.

The contrast between President Obama and his predecessor becomes obvious. Face it: if Dubya could be elected when Usama bin Laden was on the loose, what does that say about President Obama? Sure, there is the economy, and that can now be the focus of political debates.  

[Mechaman]

I think that the election could be a lot like 1992, but different.

Obama has a lot of foreign policy successes. However, the republicans turn the campaign on the economy and not foreign policy. Therefore, the republicans win.

This could very well be the case.
George HW Bush had approvals in the low 90's after the success of Operation Desert Storm only to lose the election a year later with less than 40% of the popular vote (granted, there was a significant third party candidate but still).
The main problem with Bush Sr. was that the huge momentum surge that he enjoyed in late 1991 wasn't capitalized on for the long term as well as making a BIG MISTAKE by making a "No New Taxes" pledge.  Obama has certainly failed to keep some of his campaign promises, but so did Reagan.  Does that mean Obama will win a massive 480 EV+ landslide?  That is unlikely, but if he plays his cards right he just might pull off an otherwise unlikely 400+ EV landslide (an improvement over '08) come 2012 against a possibly really weak Republican (like someone else said a number of strong Republican candidates might be wary about running against a Democratic President who helped put away the "Terrorist of the Decade").
But most of all, like GPORTER mentioned, Obama should pray that the economy gets better otherwise the morale boost from Bin Laden's death would be very short lived.  If unemployment is still above 9% come November 2012 Obama is likely finished, if unemployment is below 8% he could win re-election though at less the amount of electoral votes than he did last time, if unemployment gets below 7.5% Obama wins in the re-election with over 400 Electoral Votes and 55% of the popular vote (if not more).  I usually disagree with pbrower's hackish maps but he could actually be right on this scenario.  This one event, the death of Bin Laden, could possibly be the one catalyst that takes Obama's re-election in 2012 from a pure tossup to what was once considered an unlikely landslide improvement over '08.
While the economy has way more importance and bearing on Obama's chance at re-election, the death of Osama Bin Laden, America's Most Wanted for the past decade, could be the difference between a bare win to the greatest popular vote victory since Ronald Reagan in 1984 (electoral vote is a different story).

In other words, this has the potential to be a game changer.

[Person Man]

I think that the election could be a lot like 1992, but different.

Obama has a lot of foreign policy successes. However, the republicans turn the campaign on the economy and not foreign policy. Therefore, the republicans win.

This could very well be the case.
George HW Bush had approvals in the low 90's after the success of Operation Desert Storm only to lose the election a year later with less than 40% of the popular vote (granted, there was a significant third party candidate but still).
The main problem with Bush Sr. was that the huge momentum surge that he enjoyed in late 1991 wasn't capitalized on for the long term as well as making a BIG MISTAKE by making a "No New Taxes" pledge.  Obama has certainly failed to keep some of his campaign promises, but so did Reagan.  Does that mean Obama will win a massive 480 EV+ landslide?  That is unlikely, but if he plays his cards right he just might pull off an otherwise unlikely 400+ EV landslide (an improvement over '08) come 2012 against a possibly really weak Republican (like someone else said a number of strong Republican candidates might be wary about running against a Democratic President who helped put away the "Terrorist of the Decade").
But most of all, like GPORTER mentioned, Obama should pray that the economy gets better otherwise the morale boost from Bin Laden's death would be very short lived.  If unemployment is still above 9% come November 2012 Obama is likely finished, if unemployment is below 8% he could win re-election though at less the amount of electoral votes than he did last time, if unemployment gets below 7.5% Obama wins in the re-election with over 400 Electoral Votes and 55% of the popular vote (if not more).  I usually disagree with pbrower's hackish maps but he could actually be right on this scenario.  This one event, the death of Bin Laden, could possibly be the one catalyst that takes Obama's re-election in 2012 from a pure tossup to what was once considered an unlikely landslide improvement over '08.
While the economy has way more importance and bearing on Obama's chance at re-election, the death of Osama Bin Laden, America's Most Wanted for the past decade, could be the difference between a bare win to the greatest popular vote victory since Ronald Reagan in 1984 (electoral vote is a different story).

In other words, this has the potential to be a game changer.

I'll go with that. This, at the very least, neutralizes the entire Libya and Japan thing....just like those things nuetralized the almost a million jobs added in Q1 and the Gabby Giffords thing.

[Penelope]

Obama vs. marginal, non-nutcase Republican, 2012. It would be about a 57-42 popular margin and roughly a replay of Eisenhower 1956:

Obama/Biden     463
Sacrificial Lambs   85

This is an optimistic scenario, but a valid one. I'd say this is the upper limit for Obama's re-election.

[Yelnoc]

Obama vs. marginal, non-nutcase Republican, 2012. It would be about a 57-42 popular margin and roughly a replay of Eisenhower 1956:

Obama/Biden     463
Sacrificial Lambs   85

This is an optimistic scenario, but a valid one. I'd say this is the upper limit for Obama's re-election.

That looks more like a Palin/Bachmann/Trump map to me.  Even if Obama is widely popular, this country is too polarized for huge landslides.

[LBJFan]

I do think that this will help Obama get re-elected but I do think the main catalyst will be that there is no one strong enough at this moment to challenge him. ANYTHING can happen in the next year or so.

What pisses me off is the people who think this was a ploy to try to boost Obama's ratings and get his re-election chances up.

[California8429]

Obama's approval will be VERY high tommorow

I think he hurt himself waiting THIS long though to announce (not that his poll numbers will drop, but they won't be as high as they could have been), fox got it first. It's 45 minutes late, he lost the umph of announcing it as President.

What I'd really love to see is Petraeus' approvals

This is hilarious. Give it up.

I don't think he can help himself.

I'm serius. Obama called the meeting at 8:30, waited an hour, by then the entire world knew. NO. I'm NOT saying his approvals will drop. I think he'll be luckly to see a 60% approvals at the highest instead of something greater. It was a terrible decision to wait when the leader of the nation who ordered the assult could have stated that Osama Bin Laden was dead when everyone was thinking it was going to be about Libya.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

This has no implications on the election. He'll get a small bump that will last for a couple months, kind of like the Gifford thing, and then he'll be back to where he is now.

OBL is irrelevant. This is an inconsequential, although symbolic, victory. In 2004, OBL was seen as relevant, and if this happened then Bush would have won by a much bigger margin. But that was a much different time.

If people don't have jobs, paying $5 for gas, still sceptical about the rammed health care bill, concerned about the defecit, etc....people won't give a damn about this. I'd rather have a job and have OBL alive irrelevantly living in a mansion in Pakistan, than having him dead and a bad economy.

It looks good on Obama's resume, but he can't run a campaign simply on "I killed OBL, so vote for me" and expect to win. At the end of the day, the electorate will vote on economic conditions.

[CJK]

Depends. Will he release the death certificate?

[Smash255]

Depends. Will he release the death certificate?

I would take this as sarcasm, but considering your other posts....

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Who knows what'll happen, after The Media puts its usual right-wing spin on things.

[King]

Its basic, Obama could either have a victory five percentage points higher than 2008. Or, he could be holding on for dear life as he looses five percentage points from his last total. It just depends.

So he will either win or lose?  Fascinating.

[Eraserhead]

Its basic, Obama could either have a victory five percentage points higher than 2008. Or, he could be holding on for dear life as he looses five percentage points from his last total. It just depends.

Aren't you getting a little old to still be making these posts?

[anvi]

This has no implications on the election. He'll get a small bump that will last for a couple months, kind of like the Gifford thing, and then he'll be back to where he is now.

OBL is irrelevant. This is an inconsequential, although symbolic, victory. In 2004, OBL was seen as relevant, and if this happened then Bush would have won by a much bigger margin. But that was a much different time.

If people don't have jobs, paying $5 for gas, still sceptical about the rammed health care bill, concerned about the defecit, etc....people won't give a damn about this. I'd rather have a job and have OBL alive irrelevantly living in a mansion in Pakistan, than having him dead and a bad economy.

It looks good on Obama's resume, but he can't run a campaign simply on "I killed OBL, so vote for me" and expect to win. At the end of the day, the electorate will vote on economic conditions.

There are a couple of things I agree with here and a couple I don't.

I'll start with my agreements.  I do think the economy and the deficit worries keep the election very much on the table.  As was mentioned, Bush 41's approval ratings were in the stratosphere after the Gulf War, and he lost on a slowly recovering economy to a known philanderer.  So, at the end of the day, I think it's likely people will vote on economic issues, so the GOP nominee still will have a very real shot.  

My disagreements are these.  I don't know if the economic issues spell out a clear win for the GOP.  There is ambivalence about both the deficit and the tearing up of entitlements, making it a kind of "lose-lose issue" for both sides barring a long-term compromise deal.  Secondly, OBL was not irrelevant either in 2004 or now.  Kerry accused Bush of missing OBL at Tora Bora in the immediate aftermath of overthrowing the Taliban, and the circulation of the OBL tape a few days before election day was something Bush himself credited with nudging the electorate in his favor.  Secondly, an OBL holed up in a Pakistan mansion with curriers carrying messages in and out is an OBL who is doling out instructions.  Does his death spell the end of terrorist threats against the U.S.?  Of course not.  But he was not operationally irrelevant.  And, even on a "symbolic" level, his death means something quite real to the loved ones of 9/11 victims.  Killing him was not the ballgame, but it was a damned good catch.