2006 Governor's races

[A18]

I don't know why no one mentined it before, but there is no chance Carcieri will lose Rhode Island.

Why?

[Q]

i read in an article once that Ralph Reed is planning on running for the Republican nomination for Lieutenant Governor so he can succeed Sonny Purdue once he completes his second and final term -assuming he gets the chance, that is.   does anyone on the inside have the inside scoop to provide meat to the bare bones i have provided here???

That's pretty much his plan, it seems.  Several obscure GOP state senators as well as the GOP state House Majority Leader have been actively discussing running for Lt. Gov. for some time now, but now that Reed is running, suddenly this week they all have disavowed not only that they are running, but even that they were ever running at any time.  So basically the GOP field has been narrowed from a wide array of candidates to Reed, state Sen. Casey Cagle, and state Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine.  The nominee would be either Reed or Oxendine.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

As far as SC is concerened, I'd say that Sanford is likely a lock for re-election as Governor, Inez has an outside chance if Sanford's school choice plan goes down in serious flames, but I think she's more likely to run for a third and final term as Education Superintendent and run for Governor in 2010.  However, it's doubtful if our Lt. Gov. will get re-elected.  Bauer going to face at least one credable primary opponent and even if he survives that, the Dem's have a good chance of winning the position, as our boy-Lt. Gov. has not had good political fortune the past few years.

[Q]

Any ideas on the Florida race?

[Jake]

Any ideas on the Florida race?

Poltics 1 says:

http://www.politics1.com/fl.htm

[Q]

Any ideas on the Florida race?

Poltics 1 says:

http://www.politics1.com/fl.htm

Thanks for the link, Jake.

There sure are a lot of candidates already announced.  Have there been any polls conducted yet, or can anyone offer predictions?


Also, how about Ohio while we're at it?

[Jake]

I couldn't find any polls for Florida, but I would predict the gubernatorial battle will come down to Crist and Gallagher. 

Here are two links on Florida and Ohio.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/2004/12/us_senate_2006_3.html

http://www.swingstateproject.com/ohio/index.html

[Frodo]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/2004/12/us_senate_2006_3.html

question: is Florida trending Republican because of the growth of its suburbs, or is it something else?  i imagine the same phenomenon is occuring in Minnesota and Wisconsin. 

[Jake]

question: is Florida trending Republican because of the growth of its suburbs, or is it something else?  i imagine the same phenomenon is occuring in Minnesota and Wisconsin. 

Latinos and suburbs mainly.  Florida may become the next Texas.

[Q]

From the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Feb 16, 2005:

"According to the survey of 801 Georgia voters by Strategic Vision, a Republican firm, Perdue has a 54 percent approval rating and leads both prospective Democratic opponents — though not by the margin he might hope for.

"In the poll, conducted Feb. 11-13, Perdue holds a 50-44 lead in a hypothetical matchup with Lt. Gov. Mark Taylor. In a matchup with Secretary of State Cathy Cox, Perdue falls below the 50 percent mark, leading the Democrat 49-45."

Keep in mind that this is a very partisan Republican polling firm.  But we can draw some conclusions:
- This race will be very competitive.
- Perdue is in danger, but not chronically as some had suspected.
- Cox would do better against Perdue than would Taylor.

[Jake]

Cox would be a good Governor I think.  I like her alot more than Taylor.

[Q]

Cox would be a good Governor I think.  I like her alot more than Taylor.

I'm glad you say that.

I'd be interested to see a poll regarding the Dem primary.  Given what we know as of this point, I think this race gets decided in the Dem primary, such that if Cox wins it, she'll be the next governor, but if Taylor wins, Perdue gets a second term.

You live in PA but seem to know an awful lot about GA.  Who do you think will win this thing?

[Q]

According to a new poll, Alabama Lt. Gov. Lucy Baxley is the favorite for the Dem nomination for Gov (over former Gov. Don Siegelman.  Former Chief Justice Roy Moore would win the GOP nomination over current Gov. Bob Riley, although the results of such a race have tightened since previous polls were conducted.  Baxley would beat either Riley or Moore in the general election.


"In the survey's hypothetical general election pairings, Baxley drew 39 percent to Riley's 35 percent. She led Moore 44 percent to 38 percent.
"Riley registered a nine-point advantage over Siegelman, drawing 43 percent against his former rival's 34 percent. Moore held a double-digit lead -- 44 percent to 34 percent -- over Siegelman. A Register-USA poll last month also showed Siegelman trailing the two Republicans, though his margin against Moore was much smaller."

http://www.al.com/politics/mobileregister/index.ssf?/base/news/110889473481631.xml

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Baxley looks like a very strong candidate and it looks as though the mud has finally stuck to Siegelman.

Interesting thing about the last few cycles of Gubernatorial elections in the Deep South is that most seem to end up flipping.