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Author Topic: Canadian Election Results Thread  (Read 49089 times)
Hatman
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« Reply #1025 on: June 30, 2011, 08:38:11 am »
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The NDP map will be easy to explain (unpopular prov. govts, gun registry). The Liberal map will not be so easy.
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« Reply #1026 on: June 30, 2011, 04:18:41 pm »
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The NDP map will be easy to explain (unpopular prov. govts, gun registry). The Liberal map will not be so easy.

Are there any unpopular provincial NDP governments? According to the latest polls - the Nova Scotia NDP is way ahead of the opposition and is polling about 10% above what the federal party had in NS and the latest Manitoba poll has the NDP at 44% (tied with the Tories) and about 18% higher than the popular vote that the federal NDP had in Manitoba.

I've seen people float this theory before - and it might make sense if these provincial governments showed signs of being unpopular in the first place....
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« Reply #1027 on: June 30, 2011, 04:33:18 pm »
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The NDP in those provinces did receive significant boosts following the federal election, fwiw. As for the Nova Scotia NDP, it's popular-ish, but not comparable to when it was first elected. But honestly, making comparisons between federal and provincial elections is kind of futile, no?
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« Reply #1028 on: June 30, 2011, 09:33:26 pm »
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In Manitoba, didn't Selinger's handling of the spring floods boost NDP fortunes?
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« Reply #1029 on: June 30, 2011, 10:10:01 pm »
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Also consider that the swings are based on General Election to General Election, and don't include by-election results in seats such as Vaughan and Winnipeg North (or Riviere-du-Loup, for that matter), oh, and of course C-C-MV in NS (I just mention these ones because they changed hands at by-election, unlike, say, Hochelaga). Looking at the strong swing against the NDP in Winnipeg North isn't as big a swing as in the by-election, I think... at least, they almost took it back off the Liberals at the GE. Anyway, much of that swing in Winnipeg North can probably be explained by factors surrounding the by-election, and the loss of an incumbent vote. Some of the big swings to the NDP/against the Liberals are in seats gained by the NDP at the last election, too, such as Vancouver - Kingsway. The so-called "sophomore surge" is probably my thought on a fair amount of that. The southern half of Edmonton seems to be a consolodation of the non-Tory vote (coupled with sophomore surge in E-Strathcona). The drop in NDP vote in Newfoundland may be partially because of a boost to the NDP in the ABC campaign in 2008, with some voters now returning to the Tories.

Elmwood confuses me a little. My first thought was that perhaps if it was seen as being a relatively safe NDP riding, campaign resources may have been diverted from there into the neighbouring Winnipeg North, to regain it from the Liberals. The Tory gain seems to have come from both the NDP and the Liberals, however, so I can't really explain it... maybe some swinging voters in the riding were content with the NDP holding it when the NDP was a third party but didn't want an NDP federal government? I really don't know.

Lethbridge is interesting... I know there's a university down there, and the Liberals hold a Lethbridge seat provincially. The Liberals did better than their average in both Lethbridge seats (as in the town), actually, although federally the riding takes in rural areas, too. I don't think I've uploaded my Alberta provincial maps yet, I might have to do that.

Largish swing against the Liberals in Egmont... incumbent defeated last election so Liberal candidate didn't have the same personal vote, and Tory probably built up a bit of a personal vote (ie, sophomore surge).

St John is interesting. If I remember correct, the NDP almost won a riding or two there in the New Brunswick provincial election. I think the swing fell very nearly on the other side of the margin (and therefore nearly close enough to the next darker shade of green). Perhaps the NDP has a longer-term potential there.
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Hatman
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« Reply #1030 on: June 30, 2011, 10:33:21 pm »
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The NDP map will be easy to explain (unpopular prov. govts, gun registry). The Liberal map will not be so easy.

Are there any unpopular provincial NDP governments? According to the latest polls - the Nova Scotia NDP is way ahead of the opposition and is polling about 10% above what the federal party had in NS and the latest Manitoba poll has the NDP at 44% (tied with the Tories) and about 18% higher than the popular vote that the federal NDP had in Manitoba.

I've seen people float this theory before - and it might make sense if these provincial governments showed signs of being unpopular in the first place....

The Manitoba NDP have become much more popular since the election (floods and the Jets).  And Dexter had had to deal with cancelling the Yarmouth ferry. Dexter is (unfortunately) still one of the least popular premiers in the country.

Of course that unpopularity in both provinces appears to be concentrated in specific areas. 
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« Reply #1031 on: June 30, 2011, 11:39:16 pm »
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In the case of Nova Scotia, it appears the NDP was hurt most in Rural Nova Scotia, not so much in Halifax.  Otherwise this made Central Nova a safe Tory seat and South Shore-St. Margaret's less vulnerable than it would have been otherwise, however in Halifax it appears the NDP held or gained votes.  In the case of Newfoundland & Labrador, traditionally St. John's has been where they are strongest, but this time around they had their lowest support in those two ridings while did better in the Rural ridings so I suspect a lot of the Tory support in St. John's was more based on tradition than ideology.  My understanding is St. John's is mostly made up of those of Irish descent and Catholic whereas Rural Newfoundland is mostly those of English descent and Protestant and thus St. John's is more nationalistic so they voted against the party that brought Newfoundland into confederation.  If anything the equalization changes would have angered them more than others.  I could be wrong, but that is my speculation.  In the case of Manitoba, Winnipeg North was more a personal vote than partisan vote.  Lets remember that Kevin Lamoureux won in an NDP stronghold provincially too so I suspect many of his votes were personal ones rather than partisan ones.  As for Elmwood-Transcona, the Tories had a strong second place finish in 2008 so not surprisingly I suspect they put a lot of resources into winning this and generally they have a strong success rate of picking up marginal seats.  Also Winnipeg has seen much of its growth along the periphery not urban core and the areas near the perimeter highway are more conservative than those in the urban core thus paritally why Winnipeg has swung to the right.
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« Reply #1032 on: July 01, 2011, 12:24:24 pm »
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The other explanation for what happened in Elmwood is simply that by all accounts Jim Maloway the NDP incumbent is a jerk. I've never heard one good thing about him and a lot of people in the NDP were secretely glad not to have him back in caucus - especially what with having 103 other members to share the workload. In 2015 the NDP can run someone infinitely better there. Who knows maybe Gary Doer will decide to get back into politics.
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« Reply #1033 on: July 01, 2011, 06:25:37 pm »
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And to some extent federally, Elmwood-Transcona was more of a "Blaikie seat" than an NDP seat--that is, compared to the very sui-generis-Winnipeg demos of Winnipeg North, it's more of a generic blue-collar Prairie stronghold in which ReformAllianceConservative populist allegiances would't out of place.  (It's like comparing Vancouver East to Edmonton East.)

As for Lethbridge, I believe the high NDP finish was the "most viable alternative" default result of the invisible Tory candidate.
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Hatman
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« Reply #1034 on: July 01, 2011, 11:52:47 pm »
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Interestingly, a new poll has a tie between the PCs and the NDP in Manitoba Smiley
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« Reply #1035 on: July 02, 2011, 12:31:47 am »
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And to some extent federally, Elmwood-Transcona was more of a "Blaikie seat" than an NDP seat--

Then again, there are four provincial seats that make up Elmwood-Transcona and all of them are some of the safest NDP seats in the province where NDP candidates routinely rack up wins by 3-1 margins...
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« Reply #1036 on: July 02, 2011, 05:41:48 am »
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Interestingly, a new poll has a tie between the PCs and the NDP in Manitoba Smiley

Quite a fightback there.
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Hatman
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« Reply #1037 on: July 02, 2011, 12:16:46 pm »
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Interestingly, a new poll has a tie between the PCs and the NDP in Manitoba Smiley

Quite a fightback there.

It's all about the Jets, baby. Quite a renewed optimism in the province.
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Hatman
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« Reply #1038 on: July 02, 2011, 11:43:29 pm »
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Blog post with the NDP change has been posted.
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« Reply #1039 on: July 03, 2011, 05:17:43 am »
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Interestingly, a new poll has a tie between the PCs and the NDP in Manitoba Smiley

Quite a fightback there.

It's all about the Jets, baby. Quite a renewed optimism in the province.

Pity they couldn't have sorted that out before the federal election Smiley
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Hatman
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« Reply #1040 on: July 04, 2011, 12:22:00 am »
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I've attempted to decipher the Liberal change map in my latest blog post.

(sorry to promote it so much, but I do see the blog as an off shoot of this forum Smiley )
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« Reply #1041 on: July 04, 2011, 01:22:30 am »
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I've attempted to decipher the Liberal change map in my latest blog post.

(sorry to promote it so much, but I do see the blog as an off shoot of this forum Smiley )

I think your blog is excellent and I for one have no problem with you plugging it here.
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« Reply #1042 on: July 04, 2011, 05:04:31 am »
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I've attempted to decipher the Liberal change map in my latest blog post.

(sorry to promote it so much, but I do see the blog as an off shoot of this forum Smiley )

I think your blog is excellent and I for one have no problem with you plugging it here.
I second that - and will add that you might even attract serious posters to the forum Wink
On a more thread relevant note. I find the Canadian party system quite facinating. It seems to be caught between the Anglo-Saxon very personalised system, where it is the person more that the party you vote for, and the "European", where parties are predominant and where it is not uncommon to see elections to parliament where a substatial portion of the MP's are newly elected and unknown to the general public. The average Danish MP scores between 1000 and 8000 personal votes, far from the cirka 20.000 votes a mandate actually "costs"
NDP's Quebec group of virtually unknowns is something that I wouldn't expect to see in a Westminster system.
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« Reply #1043 on: July 04, 2011, 08:36:35 am »
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Its more the sort of thing that only happens only very occasionally; in Britain the last two General Elections when a considerable number of paper candidates were elected were in 1945 and 1997. In Canada though, you have 1993, 1984...
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Hatman
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« Reply #1044 on: July 04, 2011, 12:54:20 pm »
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Quebec is quite European, actually in their democracy. OK, they use FPTP, but... look at their election signs. Totally different than the rest of Canada. It's all about the leader. There was probably more outrage about Ruth Ellen Brosseau in the rest of Canada than in Quebec. In fact, she's quite popular in  her riding.
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« Reply #1045 on: July 04, 2011, 12:58:39 pm »

Quebec is quite European, actually in their democracy. OK, they use FPTP, but... look at their election signs. Totally different than the rest of Canada. It's all about the leader. There was probably more outrage about Ruth Ellen Brosseau in the rest of Canada than in Quebec. In fact, she's quite popular in  her riding.

No insult to the people of my native region of Lanaudiere, but the people there are often quite shallow. They fall in love with shallow people so easily, especially if they're hot and cute.
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Hatman
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« Reply #1046 on: July 04, 2011, 01:02:54 pm »
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Quebec is quite European, actually in their democracy. OK, they use FPTP, but... look at their election signs. Totally different than the rest of Canada. It's all about the leader. There was probably more outrage about Ruth Ellen Brosseau in the rest of Canada than in Quebec. In fact, she's quite popular in  her riding.

No insult to the people of my native region of Lanaudiere, but the people there are often quite shallow. They fall in love with shallow people so easily, especially if they're hot and cute.

I guess so. But, she's been surprisingly good since the party let her out of hiding.
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« Reply #1047 on: July 04, 2011, 04:26:16 pm »
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Well, I guess it's easy to be non-controversial when you stick to the talking points, are a backbencher and don't put yourself out there for everyone to see. Smiley Her first question during question period was very much on script, but she's trying. *shrug*
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« Reply #1048 on: July 04, 2011, 05:31:17 pm »
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On a more thread relevant note. I find the Canadian party system quite facinating. It seems to be caught between the Anglo-Saxon very personalised system, where it is the person more that the party you vote for, and the "European", where parties are predominant and where it is not uncommon to see elections to parliament where a substatial portion of the MP's are newly elected and unknown to the general public. The average Danish MP scores between 1000 and 8000 personal votes, far from the cirka 20.000 votes a mandate actually "costs"
NDP's Quebec group of virtually unknowns is something that I wouldn't expect to see in a Westminster system.

I think this is a consequence of the regionalism that dominates Canadian politics. Uniform national swings are unrealistic - the path to a party's victory depends on building coalitions of voters that pushes a government into majority territory.

This is peculiar among Anglophone nations. Voting coalitions are stabler in the UK (North votes Labour, Southeast vote Tories), the US (Red v. Blue states), South Africa (Blacks vote ANC) and Ireland (Fianna Fáil until 2011). These nations shift electorally when the nations face an existential crisis, and the result is lopsided. This is when paper candidates come into play.

Other countries are small enough that swings are uniform (New Zealand).

The dynamic nature of Canada's voting coalitions mean that there's always a big shift every few elections - the rate is increased once we factor in Canada's demographic changes. When the party leader reels in a region like Mulroney/Layton did to Quebec, the quality of the candidates is forgotten. People can instinctively sense if a candidate's mandate is material or symbolic. But the symbolism triumphs the material, and incumbency is not as effective as observers would think.

(Of course I could be wrong and it's only Quebec being wonky. The Liberal sweep of Ontario can also be the result of discontent over Rae + Harris)
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« Reply #1049 on: July 04, 2011, 09:08:23 pm »
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Quebec is quite European, actually in their democracy. OK, they use FPTP, but... look at their election signs. Totally different than the rest of Canada. It's all about the leader.

And yet it makes them the most paper-candidate-prone of them all in Canada: Mulroney PC in 84, Bloc in 93, NDP in 11, and provincially PQ in 76 and ADQ in 07...
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