Indiana

[DS0816]

Since Rs and Ds first matched in 1856, just three past commanders in chief, re-elected to a second term, managed to prevail with re-election while not losing a single state carried in first election: 1936 Franklin Roosevelt, 1972 Richard Nixon, and 1984 Ronald Reagan. Minimum national shift, with FDR, was an additional 6.50%. So, that's worth considering. And if Obama wins re-election along rather traditional lines of gain in popular vote, national margin, and Electoral College, but has to do some color trading with states: Indiana would be the one. Pickups would be with the likes of Georgia, Missouri, and Montana. (Guessing that, for now.)

[Penelope]

I think Obama will have to win 55% nationwise in order to win Indiana. Indiana wasn't a main focus for the GOP in 2008, as resources went to other states and the national GOP was simply relying on the state to somehow stay Republican.

In 2012, Indiana will be a greater focus, as the GOP now knows they aren't unstoppable here. There is also a relatively strong Tea Party movement in Indiana, which should help turnout for the Republican candidate.

Any decent GOP candidate (Romney, Huckabee, Pawlenty) should win Indiana. The only way I could see Indiana staying Democratic is if Trump or Palin were nominated, though even then, it'd stay relatively close.

Well, of course, since Obama won it in 2008 with 53% nationally, this makes perfect sense.

[Yelnoc]

I think Obama will have to win 55% nationwise in order to win Indiana. Indiana wasn't a main focus for the GOP in 2008, as resources went to other states and the national GOP was simply relying on the state to somehow stay Republican.

In 2012, Indiana will be a greater focus, as the GOP now knows they aren't unstoppable here. There is also a relatively strong Tea Party movement in Indiana, which should help turnout for the Republican candidate.

Any decent GOP candidate (Romney, Huckabee, Pawlenty) should win Indiana. The only way I could see Indiana staying Democratic is if Trump or Palin were nominated, though even then, it'd stay relatively close.

Well, of course, since Obama won it in 2008 with 53% nationally, this makes perfect sense.

Maybe the Tea Party movement will energize the Republican base, increasing turnout and pushing that threshold margin up to percentage points?

[Tender Branson]

How can you guys make any conclusions about Indiana when there wasn't actually ANY poll since the 2008 election that indicates that the race isn't tied between Obama and one of the Republicans ?

Let's wait and see for REAL polls between Obama and the GOP candidate before saying "Indiana is strong GOP like 2004 and before and will remain so forever" ...

[feeblepizza]

Indiana has been really neglected in 2012 polls, both in the primary and the general. I haven't found a single Indiana poll, and thus have no idea about its overall political leanings in 2012 besides the people I know (and I live in a pretty conservative area. And by conservative I mean Republican).

[pbrower2a]

How can you guys make any conclusions about Indiana when there wasn't actually ANY poll since the 2008 election that indicates that the race isn't tied between Obama and one of the Republicans ?

Let's wait and see for REAL polls between Obama and the GOP candidate before saying "Indiana is strong GOP like 2004 and before and will remain so forever" ...

I assume the interpretation least favorable to the Obama camp until I see evidence to the contrary. Until I see otherwise I figure that 2008 was a one-time fluke for Indiana not to be repeated.

[milhouse24]

Obama will likely lose Indiana this time.  He only won because (1)McCain was a poor campaigner and ran a bad campaign.  (2) Being from Illinois and Chicago, his campaign got a massive GOTV in Indiana with canvassing.  (3) Bayh was a rumored VP so many faithful Indiana Dems took notice and GOTV. 

But Mitch will probably be involved in 2012 in some way, and the Indiana GOP will make sure they don't lose again with at least a viable prez candidate.

[FalselyImperturbable]

If Daniels decides to run, nobody else will stand a chance in Indiana. Even if he doesn't, I still don't think Obama will win. But nobody will really know until some polls are released.

[feeblepizza]

If Daniels decides to run, nobody else will stand a chance in Indiana. Even if he doesn't, I still don't think Obama will win. But nobody will really know until some polls are released.

Remember that Daniels has to become the nominee first.

[pbrower2a]

Obama will likely lose Indiana this time.  He only won because (1)McCain was a poor campaigner and ran a bad campaign.  (2) Being from Illinois and Chicago, his campaign got a massive GOTV in Indiana with canvassing.  (3) Bayh was a rumored VP so many faithful Indiana Dems took notice and GOTV. 

But Mitch will probably be involved in 2012 in some way, and the Indiana GOP will make sure they don't lose again with at least a viable prez candidate.

In the last 90+ years, Barack Obama was only one of two Presidential nominees of the Democratic Party to even come close to winning Indiana in anything even resembling a close election. (Many pollsters had Barack Obama on the brink of winning Indiana from the summer of 2008 on, and he maxed out with a bare plurality of the vote. The other was Truman in 1948, when the whistlestop campaign tour obliged him to campaign frequently in Indiana. Truman was from Missouri, a state somewhat similar in its political culture, which may have made him closer to being electable in Indiana than some Democrat from the South, Northeast, or Far West.

As I see it, President Obama wins Indiana only in a landslide, He almost has to campaign actively in Indiana to win it, and he will likely have other concerns.  Richard Lugar is  invulnerable to any challenge from any Democrat, and the State legislature has so gerrymandered the state's electoral districts that all but two districts will be nearly impossible for any Democrat to win in anything other than a catastrophic collapse of the GOP in the House. Indiana likely represents the electoral votes in the 380-390 range.