Wales 2011 - Results Thread
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #50 on: May 06, 2011, 06:48:47 AM »

Arfon is a Plaid hold and looks from the BBC figures like a good result for them; but no votes for the LibDems? And some other details missing as well. wtf?
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #51 on: May 06, 2011, 07:04:35 AM »

The totals don't add to the total vote cast - presumably they just forgot to enter the LD's 4.6% of the vote.

What happened to the Plaid vote in Aberconwy - personal vote owner standing down?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #52 on: May 06, 2011, 07:14:57 AM »

The totals don't add to the total vote cast - presumably they just forgot to enter the LD's 4.6% of the vote.

Ah, right. lol.

We'd have done better if the original candidate hadn't suddenly resigned in a hissy fit at the end of February Roll Eyes

Not that it matters; not a priority seat outside Westminster elections.

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Yes. Incumbent AM was probably the most right-wing Plaid ever had elected to the Assembly; he had a massive personal vote in some very Tory parts of Llandudno.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #53 on: May 06, 2011, 07:27:14 AM »

The worst thing - the very worst thing - about using twitter to follow these elections has been the absurd whinging from some of the more... out there... Plaid supporters. Obviously it sucks to lose seats, and it's worse to lose your best performers (Plaid have lost their two best AMs) but that's really no excuse for the ridiculous droning.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #54 on: May 06, 2011, 07:34:09 AM »

Ah, the SLP phenomenon strikes again; they've taken over 2% on the list vote.

Oh, and all constituencies are in. I don't think the regionals are quite finalised yet, but we know the general picture. BBC project Labour 30, Con 14, Plaid 11, LDem 5.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #55 on: May 06, 2011, 07:47:28 AM »

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minionofmidas
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« Reply #56 on: May 06, 2011, 07:48:40 AM »

I think that's the final result.

Constituency vote
Labour    28    +4    401,677    42.3    +10.1
Conservative    6    +1    236,916    25    +2.6
Plaid Cymru    5    -2    182,907    19.3    -3.1
Liberal Democrat    1    -2    100,731    10.6    -4.2
Others    0    -1    27,021    2.8    -5.4

After 40 of 40 constituencies declared
Regions scoreboard
Help
Party    Seats    +/-    Votes    %    +/-%
Conservative    8    +1    213,773    22.5    +1.1
Plaid Cymru    6    -2    169,799    17.9    -3.1
Liberal Democrat    4    +1    76,349    8    -3.7
Labour    2    0    349,935    36.9    +7.2
Others    0    0    139,532    14.7    -1.5
Turnout    949,388    42.2    -1.1

Of course, the regional seats comparison is mighty silly, the beeb doesn't want to understand the way the law works.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #57 on: May 06, 2011, 07:51:30 AM »

Plus ten is nice. And now I have to eat something solid...
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afleitch
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« Reply #58 on: May 06, 2011, 08:17:30 AM »

The worst thing - the very worst thing - about using twitter to follow these elections has been the absurd whinging from some of the more... out there... Plaid supporters. Obviously it sucks to lose seats, and it's worse to lose your best performers (Plaid have lost their two best AMs) but that's really no excuse for the ridiculous droning.

If you think that's bad you should hear the Glasgow and West Fife Labour Party supporters Cheesy
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #59 on: May 07, 2011, 01:27:13 PM »



The LibDems lost seventeen deposits, the Tories one. Labour took over 60% in five constituencies.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #60 on: May 07, 2011, 06:10:36 PM »

So, what next? A BBC article on the general subject. Needless to say the atmosphere is totally different to the one in 2007, but it's also different to 2003; as the Tories finished second there's an additional layer of security added to the victory.

Meanwhile, the Tories have appointed Paul Davies (Preseli Pembroke) as their interim leader. Not sure who their proper one will end up being; the obvious successor having been defeated in the battle of the Morgans.

I've not heard any rumours about IWJ's leadership, though I'll note that he briefly quit after 2003 when Plaid won 12 seats. On Thursday they won 11. Still, who's left to take him down now? HMJ and Dai Lloyd both lost their seats, and so did Nerys Evans who foolishly chose to contest a constituency seat rather than stay on the list.

And that's £8,500 that the LibDems won't be getting back, btw.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #61 on: May 08, 2011, 03:41:56 AM »

I notice there's really only one seat Labour left on the table (a list seat in the North, or alternatively a freak gain in the Northwest. Result's the same.) Short of a 97/01 repeat, a majority is really almost impossible to achieve.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #62 on: May 10, 2011, 07:35:19 AM »

To the shock of no one, Labour have announced that they'll be going it alone for now, but will continue talking to other parties over the next few months. This is the logical thing to do for multiple reasons. Carwyn also made remarks basically stating that he likes consensus politics, but then we knew that anyway.

Anyways, the Tories want the job of Presiding Officer to go to one of them. Dafydd El will not be happy (presumably he'll want to keep it). Though obviously its Labour votes that will decide.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #63 on: May 11, 2011, 08:49:40 AM »

Actually no. He doesn't want it and is stepping down. Might actually go to a Labour AM this time, though who knows.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #64 on: May 13, 2011, 12:41:33 PM »

Various things...

1. The new Presiding Officer is Rosemary Butler (Labour, Newport West) and the new Deputy Presiding Officer is David Melding (Con, SWC List). Melding beat another Tory to his post; there was a secret vote.

2. Carwyn's cabinet is as follows:

Leighton Andrews (Rhondda) - Education
Janice Gregory (Ogmore) - Chief Whip
John Griffiths (Newport East) - Environment
Lesley Griffiths (Wrexham) - Health
Edwina Hart (Gower) - Enterprise
Jane Hutt (Vale of Glamorgan) - Finance
Huw Lewis (Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney) - Housing, Regeneration & Heritage
Carl Sargeant (Alyn & Deeside) - Local Government

With the following deputy ministers:

Gwenda Thomas (Neath) - Social Services
Jeff Cuthbert (Caerphilly) - Skills
Alun Davies (Blaenau Gwent) - Agriculture, Food, Fisheries & European Programmes

This is a smaller cabinet than last time. Whether this is significant or not is certain but has caused the usual speculation. Oh, and it's now the Welsh Government, not Welsh Assembly Government.

3. IWJ is going to resign as Plaid leader at some point fairly soon. Which is not a surprise. Dafydd El has - more or less - already declared that he's going to run. Which is not a surprise.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #65 on: May 14, 2011, 09:20:00 AM »

Going through the regional figures today. Not sure when anything will come of it, but whatever. Anyway. 3% for the SLP on Anglesey? Hmm... I have a theory, but I'll have to check through more results first.

(they appeared on the ballot as 'Plaid Lafur Sosialaidd/Socialist Labour Party'. Now if you were scanning down quickly...)
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #66 on: May 14, 2011, 04:41:06 PM »

The map you've all been waiting for!

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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #67 on: May 14, 2011, 06:56:26 PM »

Top five constituencies for each party on the list vote... well... after a certain point just top two and then only if there's something interesting to report...

Labour

1. Blaenau Gwent - 62.7%
2. Aberavon - 57.2%
3. Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney 55.4%
4. Rhondda - 54.6%
5. Ogmore - 54.1%

Conservatives

1. Monmouth - 42.2%
2. Montgomeryshire - 37.0%
3. Clwyd West - 36.5%
4. Cardiff North - 36.2%
5. Preseli Pembrokeshire - 35.8%

Plaid Cymru

1. Arfon - 47.5%
2. Dwyfor Meirionnydd - 45.6%
3. Carmarthen East & Dinefwr - 39.9%
4. Ceredigion - 36.5%
5. Ynys Môn - 35.8%

LibDems

1. Brecon & Radnorshire - 29.2%
2. Ceredigion - 26.8%
3. Cardiff Central - 25.8%
4. Montgomeryshire - 24.0%
5. Swansea West - 13.5%

UKIP

1. Montgomeryshire - 6.9%
2. Torfaen - 6.7%
3. Alyn & Deeside - 6.0%
4. Newport East and Ynys Môn - 5.9%

Greens

1. Cardiff Central - 9.1%
2. Cardiff West - 8.6%
3. Ceredigion - 6.2%
4. Cardiff South & Penarth - 5.8%
5. Montgomeryshire - 4.5%

SLP

1. Ogmore - 5.5%
2. Cynon Valley - 4.3%
3. Bridgend - 4.0%
4. Merthyr Tydfil & Rhmney, Rhondda and Swansea East - 3.7%

BNP

1. Blaenau Gwent - 4.9%
2. Swansea East - 4.6%
3. Islwyn - 4.5%
4. Torfaen - 4.3%
5. Alyn & Deeside - 3.8%

WCP

1. Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney and Islwyn - both 1.7%
3. Newport West - 1.5%

Communists

1. Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney - 0.5%
2. Arfon - 0.4%

English Democrats

1. Monmouth - 3.1%
2. Newport East - 1.4%
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #68 on: May 15, 2011, 03:41:36 AM »

Actually, what I was waiting for was a spreadsheet of regional vs constituency votes, for both Wales and Scotland. Grin
Plaid Cymru

1. Arfon
2. Dwyfor Meirionnydd
Okay, this surprised me.

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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #69 on: May 16, 2011, 08:58:26 AM »

Actually, what I was waiting for was a spreadsheet of regional vs constituency votes, for both Wales and Scotland. Grin

Now let's see... I don't... as it happens... have a spreadsheet for Scotland. But I do have a spreadsheet for Wales; percentages only I'm afraid. But then I also have the screenshots with the raw figures.

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47.5 and 45.6. In 2007 it was 51.4 and 49.7. Things being that way round then made a degree of sense (Wigley was on the regional list), but it's a little stranger this time. I suppose those Tories who live in the resorts are more likely to vote in Assembly elections than they used to?

Though on further reflection it's a little stranger; must mean that hardly anyone who voted for the Llais candidate voted Plaid on the list. Which is interesting.
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Peter
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« Reply #70 on: May 17, 2011, 04:14:33 PM »

The map you've all been waiting for!
[snip]
Wheres the source data for this map?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #71 on: May 18, 2011, 07:48:05 AM »

The map you've all been waiting for!
[snip]
Wheres the source data for this map?

On the sites of the councils that were responsible for counting the regional votes. I put all of the percentages into a spreadsheet; can email it to you if you want.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #72 on: May 19, 2011, 08:44:57 AM »

Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #73 on: May 20, 2011, 04:53:55 PM »



Maps of list votes for serious parties will come later...
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #74 on: May 21, 2011, 11:27:52 AM »


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