Northern Ireland 2011

[Јas]

14/18 first counts in...

Seats
13 DUP
10 SF
  3 Alliance
  2 SDLP
  2 UUP

30/108 seats filled

[Јas]

Mid Ulster - First Count

Quota: 6,106

8,957 Martin McGuinness* (SF)
7,127 Ian McCrea* (DUP)
5,178 Michelle O'Neill* (SF)
5,065 Patsy McGlone* (SDLP)
4,409 Sandra Overend (UUP)
4,263 Francie Molloy* (SF)
2,635 Ian Milne (SF)
2,075 Walter Millar (TUV)
1,214 Austin Kelly (SDLP)
   933 Hugh McCloy (i)
   398 Michael McDonald (Alliance)
   243 Harry Hutchinson (People Before Profit)
   241 Gary McCann (i)

McGuinness and McCrea elected.
McGuiness's surplus distribution comes next - but the count is being suspended for the night.

First 6 should all get elected here. No change on outgoing Assembly.

[Јas]

Tyrone West - First Count

Quota: 5,618

5,992 Barry McElduff* (SF)
5,659 Pat Doherty* (SF)
5,057 Michaela Boyle (SF)
5,005 Thomas Buchanan* (DUP)
4,069 Ross Hussey (UUP)
4,063 Allan Bresland* (DUP)
3,362 Joe Byrne (SDLP)
3,016 Declan McAleer (SF)
1,141 Paddy McGowan (i)
1,100 Eugene McMenamin (i)
   856 Eric Bullick (Alliance)

Doherty and McElduff elected.

Very poor result for the SDLP - but, those 2 independents are ex-SDLP, so they should transfer reasonably well to Byrne. That and the SF votes of McAleer should help.

Given that it's Hussey (UUP) v Bresland (DUP) for the final seat, with but 6 votes between them on Count 1. The Alliance transfers could be important there. I'd imagine Hussey is narrow favourite.

[Јas]

Antrim East - First Count

Quota: 4,147

7,181 Sammy Wilson* (DUP)
3,288 David Hilditch* (DUP)
3,042 Roy Beggs* (UUP)
2,889 Stewart Dickson (Alliance)
2,369 Oliver McMullan (SF)
1,851 Rodney McCune (UUP)
1,620 Gerardine Mulvenna (Alliance)
1,608 Alastair Ross* (DUP)
1,346 Ruth Wilson (TUV)
1,333 Justin McCamphill (SDLP)
1,321 Gordon Lyons (DUP)
   664 Daniel Donnelly (Green)
   511 Steven Moore (BNP)

Wilson elected with a very substantial surplus.
3 DUP, 1 UUP and 1 Alliance given.

Quite unclear where the last seat will go. Any of SF, Alliance, UUP could take it.
Very bad result for SDLP. Previously neck and neck with SF, they've fallen far behind.

[Јas]

Now just Fermanagh-South Tyrone awaiting a first count...

Seats
15 DUP
13 SF
  3 Alliance
  2 SDLP
  2 UUP

35/108 seats filled

[Јas]

Alisdair McDonnell (SDLP) elected on Count 2 in Belfast South.

[Јas]

North Belfast and Upper Bann counts suspended for the night.

[Хahar 🤔]

Congratulations to Procapitalism on an excellent result.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Something is wrong with the BBC website. Any other places to get results?

[Јas]

BBC online report that FST first count is done with Michelle Gildernew (SF), Tom Elloitt (UUP leader) and Arlene Foster (DUP) elected.

No sign of a full set of numbers.

Anyway... I'm suspending my own involvement now.

Signing off with my haphazard final prediction...

37 DUP
30 SF
15 UUP
14 SDLP
  8 Alliance
  1 Green
  1 TUV
  1 Independent Unionist (McClarty, Derry E)

[Kevinstat]

Tyrone West - First Count

Quota: 5,618

5,992 Barry McElduff* (SF)
5,659 Pat Doherty* (SF)
5,057 Michaela Boyle (SF)
5,005 Thomas Buchanan* (DUP)
4,069 Ross Hussey (UUP)
4,063 Allan Bresland* (DUP)
3,362 Joe Byrne (SDLP)
3,016 Declan McAleer (SF)
1,141 Paddy McGowan (i)
1,100 Eugene McMenamin (i)
   856 Eric Bullick (Alliance)

Doherty and McElduff elected.

Very poor result for the SDLP - but, those 2 independents are ex-SDLP, so they should transfer reasonably well to Byrne. That and the SF votes of McAleer should help.

Well, when you consider how poorly the SDLP candidates in West Tyrone transferred to each other in 2007, when the party ran three of them when they had barely over a quota and had been dropping (they chose two candidates not including the incumbent MLA (McMenamin) who made a stink so they let him run as an SDLP candidate too (perhaps they figured that otherwise he would run as an independent like he is now)), I wouldn't be so sure about that.  It would take a collective majority of them to put McAleer over Bryne for the fourth nationalist seat (I assume the Alliance vote would go more to Bryne than McAleer), but McGowan ran as as an "Independent Community" candidate back in 1998 so his SDLP-ties may be long gone (although that label might indicate that he is on the other side of the SDLP spectrum from Sinn Féin).  Bryne and McGowan were both elected to the Forum in 1996 which wasn't long after the cease fire that "ended" the Troubles (when was that anyway), and a lot of Stoops back then might be Shinners now, and with animosity bettween McMenamin and his old party from 2007...

I imagine four nationalists will be elected (particularly if Bryne stays ahead of McAleer), but with that constituency you can hardly assume anything (that was the seat where independent Kieran Deeny topped the poll in 2003 on a "save the Omagh hospital" platform; he was reelected in 2004 on transfers from "everywhere" according to Nicholas Whyte).

[YL]

A cursory look at the results (even UTV aren't giving details of later counts) suggests the SDLP have done quite badly.  Maybe transfers will improve things for them as the counts go on, maybe not.

[minionofmidas]

A cursory look at the results (even UTV aren't giving details of later counts)

Yeah. They have more counts in than the BBC though, apparently. Maybe the Beeb is not aware counting is still continuing.

Someone produce me a link with full count details, or I'll travel to NI and blow myself and some Protestants up!

[YL]

Upper Bann has finished, no change.

South Antrim has finished, DUP gain from SDLP. 

[YL]

South Belfast has finished, no change, so the SDLP held on to both their seats there.

No Nationalist gain from Unionist in South Down: both the UUP and the DUP have a candidate elected.

[YL]

East 'Derry has finished, ex-UUP independent gain from UUP.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Some of this is painful. In South Down there are only 2 people left in the counts, both SDLP, but of course they can't update it to show that SDLP will pick it up, they need the actual candidate.

[YL]

Results continue to trickle in.

North Belfast: DUP gain from UUP.
Lagan Valley: DUP gain from SF (due to boundary change)

[Јas]

It's more than a little annoying that I can't find anyone reporting the counts in full.

[YL]

Fermanagh & South Tyrone now in: SF gain from SDLP

Still waiting:
East Antrim
East Belfast
Foyle now in, no change
Mid Ulster
North Antrim
North Down
Strangford
West Belfast
West Tyrone

[YL]

Two more results:

North Antrim: Jim Allister (TUV) elected, SDLP losing out.   The boundary changes didn't help the SDLP here, but...

Strangford: UUP gain from DUP.  The boundary changes should have given the SDLP a seat here.  Very good performance by Alliance.

Elsewhere, UUP leader Tom Elliott is playing at being a Unionist dinosaur.

[minionofmidas]

I see he's wearing a rosette in the colors of a foreign nation. Maybe he just should emigrate there.

[You kip if you want to...]

I agree with Tom! Complete and utter, murdering scum.

[YL]

East Antrim: SF gain from UUP (boundary change, but still a good result for SF; more disappointment for the SDLP).
West Belfast: no change, so still 5 Shinners.
West Tyrone: SDLP gain from Ind, so they avoided being as incompetent as last time.  Also a UUP gain from DUP.

Still waiting on North Down, Mid Ulster and East Belfast, but the latter already has an Alliance gain.

[YL]

All in at last.

No change in Mid-Ulster
DUP gain from UUP in North Down (Greens hold on)
Alliance gain from PUP/Ind in East Belfast

Overall:
DUP 38 (+2)
SF 29 (+1)
UUP 16 (-2)
SDLP 14 (-2)
Alliance 8 (+1)
TUV 1 (+1)
Green 1 (n/c)
Ind (ex-UUP) 1