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| |-+  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderator: Joe Republic)
| | |-+  Southern State Legislative Chambers Up in 2012
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Poll
Question: Which of the following chambers do you predict will either turn Republican, or become more heavily Republican by January 2013?
AR: House   -24 (9.4%)
AR: Senate   -23 (9.1%)
FL: House   -5 (2%)
FL: Senate   -5 (2%)
GA: House   -8 (3.1%)
GA: Senate   -8 (3.1%)
KY: House   -18 (7.1%)
KY: Senate   -14 (5.5%)
NC: House   -10 (3.9%)
NC: Senate   -9 (3.5%)
TN: House   -16 (6.3%)
TN: Senate   -19 (7.5%)
TX: House   -5 (2%)
TX: Senate   -5 (2%)
WV: House   -15 (5.9%)
WV: Senate   -17 (6.7%)
SC: House   -9 (3.5%)
SC: Senate   -10 (3.9%)
OK: House   -16 (6.3%)
OK: Senate   -18 (7.1%)
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Total Voters: 30

Author Topic: Southern State Legislative Chambers Up in 2012  (Read 11245 times)
Frodo
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« on: May 07, 2011, 08:27:14 pm »
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Based much on the same format I followed for the 2011 thread.  

And here are the chambers (based on this list from BallotPedia) and their current makeup, which will be subject to updates:

Arkansas House:

51 Republicans
49 Democrats

Arkansas Senate:

21 Republicans
14 Democrats

Florida House:

74 Republicans
46 Democrats

Florida Senate:

26 Republicans
14 Democrats

Georgia House:

119 Republicans
60 Democrats
1 independent

Georgia Senate:

38 Republicans
18 Democrats

Kentucky House:

55 Democrats
45 Republicans

Kentucky Senate:

23 Republicans
14 Democrats
1 independent

North Carolina House:

77 Republicans
43 Democrats

North Carolina Senate:

32 Republicans
18 Democrats

Tennessee House:

71 Republicans
27 Democrats
1 independent

Tennessee Senate:

26 Republicans
7 Democrats

Texas House:

95 Republicans
55 Democrats

Texas Senate:

19 Republicans
12 Democrats

West Virginia House:

54 Democrats
46 Republicans

West Virginia Senate:

24 Democrats
10 Republicans

South Carolina House:

76 Republicans
46 Democrats

South Carolina Senate:

28 Republicans
18 Democrats

Oklahoma House:

72 Republicans
29 Democrats

Oklahoma Senate:

36 Republicans
12 Democrats
« Last Edit: January 19, 2013, 12:53:31 pm by Frodo »Logged

Mr.Phips
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« Reply #1 on: May 07, 2011, 09:00:20 pm »
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If these chambers survived 2010, I dont think any of them will get more Republican in 2010.  The 2010 elections basically reduced Democrats to inner city liberal and black majority districts in the South. 
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Bacon King
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« Reply #2 on: May 07, 2011, 09:27:21 pm »
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If these chambers survived 2010, I dont think any of them will get more Republican in 2010.  The 2010 elections basically reduced Democrats to inner city liberal and black majority districts in the South. 

Consider though that for many of these states, this is the first time the Republicans have control over redistricting.
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« Reply #3 on: May 07, 2011, 09:33:21 pm »
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If these chambers survived 2010, I dont think any of them will get more Republican in 2010.  The 2010 elections basically reduced Democrats to inner city liberal and black majority districts in the South.  

Consider though that for many of these states, this is the first time the Republicans have control over redistricting.

There are hardly any Democrats left to redistrict away.  Most of the remaining Democratic seats are either VRA protected or super Democratic inner city seats that cant really be messed with without causing trouble for Republicans in adjacent districts. 
« Last Edit: May 07, 2011, 09:36:43 pm by Mr.Phips »Logged
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« Reply #4 on: May 08, 2011, 12:26:20 am »
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It's practically a given that the Democrats are going to gain seats in Kentucky, thanks to the census. In fact, one member just switched from Republican to Democratic.
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« Reply #5 on: May 10, 2011, 01:45:45 pm »
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If these chambers survived 2010, I dont think any of them will get more Republican in 2010.  The 2010 elections basically reduced Democrats to inner city liberal and black majority districts in the South. 

You're somewhat like a parrot, you've picked up one phrase and are just repeating it everywhere for the sake of making noise. Not once has this been an intelligent, compelling argument. It is especially off putting because even recent history shows a 2006 followed by a 2008. There are seats that fell in 1994 that weren't close in 2010. There were seats that fell in 2010 that weren't close in 1994, before 1994, or after 1994. Things. Change. Frequently. Accept it and start thinking about 2012 instead of misreading 2010.
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« Reply #6 on: May 10, 2011, 07:33:08 pm »
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Not many--most are either solidly Democratic and will stay that way (WV, AR) or the reverse (OK, FL, etc)

If anything, the Democrats will likely make big gains in NC, TX, and FL.

Mississippi will be the only one the Dems lose.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #7 on: May 10, 2011, 07:50:21 pm »
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If these chambers survived 2010, I dont think any of them will get more Republican in 2010.  The 2010 elections basically reduced Democrats to inner city liberal and black majority districts in the South. 

You're somewhat like a parrot, you've picked up one phrase and are just repeating it everywhere for the sake of making noise. Not once has this been an intelligent, compelling argument. It is especially off putting because even recent history shows a 2006 followed by a 2008. There are seats that fell in 1994 that weren't close in 2010. There were seats that fell in 2010 that weren't close in 1994, before 1994, or after 1994. Things. Change. Frequently. Accept it and start thinking about 2012 instead of misreading 2010.

There simply are not any seats left for Republicans to pick up.  They picked up everything they possibly could in 2010 and then some.  You dont gain almost 700 seats and go on to pick up more seats in the next election. 
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #8 on: May 10, 2011, 08:06:26 pm »
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Not many--most are either solidly Democratic and will stay that way (WV, AR) or the reverse (OK, FL, etc)

If anything, the Democrats will likely make big gains in NC, TX, and FL.

Mississippi will be the only one the Dems lose.

Yes I have a feeling NC could flip back in 2012.  Note that the NC constitution forbids unnecessary county splits in state legislative districts, so the legislature can't really be gerrymandered.  If FL gets successfully de-gerrymandered, then there should be several Dem pickups, but not nearly enough for a majority.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #9 on: May 10, 2011, 08:27:10 pm »
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Not many--most are either solidly Democratic and will stay that way (WV, AR) or the reverse (OK, FL, etc)

If anything, the Democrats will likely make big gains in NC, TX, and FL.

Mississippi will be the only one the Dems lose.

Yes I have a feeling NC could flip back in 2012.  Note that the NC constitution forbids unnecessary county splits in state legislative districts, so the legislature can't really be gerrymandered.  If FL gets successfully de-gerrymandered, then there should be several Dem pickups, but not nearly enough for a majority.

There will probably be pretty big gains for Democrats in the Texas House, as Democrats lost every possible district there and even had some party switches from districts that Republicans will never hold. 

There should be a bit of a snapback to Democrats in Georgia too with Obama leading the ticket. 
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #10 on: May 10, 2011, 08:32:40 pm »
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Not many--most are either solidly Democratic and will stay that way (WV, AR) or the reverse (OK, FL, etc)

If anything, the Democrats will likely make big gains in NC, TX, and FL.

Mississippi will be the only one the Dems lose.

Yes I have a feeling NC could flip back in 2012.  Note that the NC constitution forbids unnecessary county splits in state legislative districts, so the legislature can't really be gerrymandered.  If FL gets successfully de-gerrymandered, then there should be several Dem pickups, but not nearly enough for a majority.

There will probably be pretty big gains for Democrats in the Texas House, as Democrats lost every possible district there and even had some party switches from districts that Republicans will never hold. 

There should be a bit of a snapback to Democrats in Georgia too with Obama leading the ticket. 

GA and TX are both going to be gerrymandered to kingdom come, so much so that I'm not convinced Dems can make significant gains.  TX is probably a lost cause this decade.  GA Dems have some hope of reclaiming the legislature in the long term, but that would be around 2016-20 if GA follows VA and NC to the left. 
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« Reply #11 on: May 10, 2011, 08:38:10 pm »
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Not many--most are either solidly Democratic and will stay that way (WV, AR) or the reverse (OK, FL, etc)

If anything, the Democrats will likely make big gains in NC, TX, and FL.

Mississippi will be the only one the Dems lose.

Yes I have a feeling NC could flip back in 2012.  Note that the NC constitution forbids unnecessary county splits in state legislative districts, so the legislature can't really be gerrymandered.  If FL gets successfully de-gerrymandered, then there should be several Dem pickups, but not nearly enough for a majority.

There will probably be pretty big gains for Democrats in the Texas House, as Democrats lost every possible district there and even had some party switches from districts that Republicans will never hold. 

There should be a bit of a snapback to Democrats in Georgia too with Obama leading the ticket. 

GA and TX are both going to be gerrymandered to kingdom come, so much so that I'm not convinced Dems can make significant gains.  TX is probably a lost cause this decade.  GA Dems have some hope of reclaiming the legislature in the long term, but that would be around 2016-20 if GA follows VA and NC to the left. 

Texas and Georgia already are heavily gerrymandered for Republicans.  So is South Carolina. 
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Dgov
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« Reply #12 on: May 10, 2011, 11:58:43 pm »
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Texas and Georgia already are heavily gerrymandered for Republicans.  So is South Carolina. 

Texas is a court map IIRC, since Democrats controlled the State house in 2001 and couldn't agree with Perry on a map so it went to the courts.  Remember they dropped to 76 seats in 2008--not something that could realistically happen in a Republican-Gerrymandered map.  They'll also probably pick up a seat or two in South Texas since they can uncrack the Republican votes there.

Same with Georgia I think, though I'm pretty sure it was a Dem Gerrymander turned Dummymander, so I don't know.  Republicans tried to redraw the map in 2005 but got struck down, which is why the current congressional map looks kind of reasonable.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #13 on: May 11, 2011, 12:02:08 am »
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Texas and Georgia already are heavily gerrymandered for Republicans.  So is South Carolina. 

Texas is a court map IIRC, since Democrats controlled the State house in 2001 and couldn't agree with Perry on a map so it went to the courts.  Remember they dropped to 76 seats in 2008--not something that could realistically happen in a Republican-Gerrymandered map.  They'll also probably pick up a seat or two in South Texas since they can uncrack the Republican votes there.

Same with Georgia I think, though I'm pretty sure it was a Dem Gerrymander turned Dummymander, so I don't know.  Republicans tried to redraw the map in 2005 but got struck down, which is why the current congressional map looks kind of reasonable.

The GOP got to redraw the Georgia state Legislature map back in 2003 after the Dem map was struck down. 
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rbt48
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« Reply #14 on: May 11, 2011, 08:41:06 am »
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Arkansas' legislature will go Republican.  The GOP didn't contest many districts in 2010 and won about all of them.  With Obama on top of the ballot, they can only go up.

How can the GOP not get more seats in the WV Senate.  It is a lock for them to gain.

I expect at least one Tennessee Senate seat gain for the GOP.  The seats up in 2012 were contested in 2008.  There is that Clarksville seat where the Democrats denied the primary victory to the Republican leaning Senator and left the liberal Dem unopposed.

Again, with Obama at the top, the Kentucky State House will likely get a few more GOP members.  The guy who switched in Louisville the other day has to be an odd duck who just wanted to be on the majority side.

I do expect GOP losses in Florida.  It is hard to understand how they have two to one majorities in so closely divided a state.

I read that the redistricting in Texas will pretty much guarantee a super majority in the State H of R.

Thanks for the chance to comment!
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« Reply #15 on: May 11, 2011, 10:39:26 am »
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Arkansas' legislature will go Republican.  The GOP didn't contest many districts in 2010 and won about all of them.  With Obama on top of the ballot, they can only go up.

How can the GOP not get more seats in the WV Senate.  It is a lock for them to gain.

I expect at least one Tennessee Senate seat gain for the GOP.  The seats up in 2012 were contested in 2008.  There is that Clarksville seat where the Democrats denied the primary victory to the Republican leaning Senator and left the liberal Dem unopposed.

Again, with Obama at the top, the Kentucky State House will likely get a few more GOP members.  The guy who switched in Louisville the other day has to be an odd duck who just wanted to be on the majority side.

I do expect GOP losses in Florida.  It is hard to understand how they have two to one majorities in so closely divided a state.

I read that the redistricting in Texas will pretty much guarantee a super majority in the State H of R.

Thanks for the chance to comment!

Thanks for the chance to comment.



Democrats are gerrymandering Arkansas.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #16 on: May 11, 2011, 12:25:56 pm »
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Given population loss in the Democratic inner city dumps, its certainly possible to eek out a couple more seats in most of the states mentioned.

Florida might be an exception.

In North Carolina, for instance, a black seat will probably be eliminated around Roanoke Rapids.
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« Reply #17 on: May 11, 2011, 01:05:33 pm »
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Given population loss in the Democratic inner city dumps, its certainly possible to eek out a couple more seats in most of the states mentioned.

That is disrespectful to refer to it as that
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« Reply #18 on: May 11, 2011, 04:00:53 pm »
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Again, with Obama at the top, the Kentucky State House will likely get a few more GOP members.

Um, no.
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« Reply #19 on: May 11, 2011, 04:54:56 pm »
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Again, with Obama at the top, the Kentucky State House will likely get a few more GOP members.

Um, no.

Democrats actually gained seats in Kentucky with Obama leading the ticket in 2008. 
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JacobNC
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« Reply #20 on: May 11, 2011, 06:00:16 pm »
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Florida is so disgustingly gerrymandered, Republicans have rigged majorities in both chambers for a long time.
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rbt48
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« Reply #21 on: May 11, 2011, 09:47:01 pm »
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Democrats actually gained seats in Kentucky with Obama leading the ticket in 2008.  
[/quote]
Again, with Obama at the top, the Kentucky State House will likely get a few more GOP members.

Um, no.

So, do you think it will remain 59-41, or are you seeing Democratic gains?  Personally, I just can't help but see some GOP gains with Obama getting shellacked in the state as the legislature inevitably heads towards Republican control in the next several elections.
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« Reply #22 on: May 11, 2011, 09:52:06 pm »
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So, do you think it will remain 59-41, or are you seeing Democratic gains?

There's going to be big Democratic gains, thanks to the census. I wouldn't be surprised to see it 65-35 again.

Think what's gone on in Colorado in the past few years. That's Kentucky a few years from now.
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« Reply #23 on: May 11, 2011, 10:59:44 pm »
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Given population loss in the Democratic inner city dumps, its certainly possible to eek out a couple more seats in most of the states mentioned.

That is disrespectful to refer to it as that

Guess you've never been to an inner city before..  Take a drive through Baltimore
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« Reply #24 on: May 11, 2011, 11:20:01 pm »
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Given population loss in the Democratic inner city dumps, its certainly possible to eek out a couple more seats in most of the states mentioned.

That is disrespectful to refer to it as that

Guess you've never been to an inner city before..  Take a drive through Baltimore

I live in the inner city and I think what he's saying is ridiculous.
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