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| |-+  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderator: Joe Republic)
| | |-+  Southern State Legislative Chambers Up in 2012
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Poll
Question: Which of the following chambers do you predict will either turn Republican, or become more heavily Republican by January 2013?
AR: House   -24 (9.4%)
AR: Senate   -23 (9.1%)
FL: House   -5 (2%)
FL: Senate   -5 (2%)
GA: House   -8 (3.1%)
GA: Senate   -8 (3.1%)
KY: House   -18 (7.1%)
KY: Senate   -14 (5.5%)
NC: House   -10 (3.9%)
NC: Senate   -9 (3.5%)
TN: House   -16 (6.3%)
TN: Senate   -19 (7.5%)
TX: House   -5 (2%)
TX: Senate   -5 (2%)
WV: House   -15 (5.9%)
WV: Senate   -17 (6.7%)
SC: House   -9 (3.5%)
SC: Senate   -10 (3.9%)
OK: House   -16 (6.3%)
OK: Senate   -18 (7.1%)
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Total Voters: 30

Author Topic: Southern State Legislative Chambers Up in 2012  (Read 11802 times)
wormyguy
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« Reply #25 on: May 11, 2011, 11:22:58 pm »
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I live in the inner city and I think what he's saying is ridiculous.

The place where retarded hipsters are stored =/= "inner city."
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BRTD
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« Reply #26 on: May 11, 2011, 11:25:52 pm »
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That's basically No True Scotsman.
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wormyguy
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« Reply #27 on: May 11, 2011, 11:29:34 pm »
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It's "inner city" if you could be genuinely worried about being shot, or if you have reason to be fearful because you're a white person.  Retarded hipsterville has never been "inner city" by anyone's definition except maybe some retarded hipsters who want to show "solidarity" with the poor that they studiously avoid, or perhaps merely want to "live ironically."
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Snowguy716
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« Reply #28 on: May 11, 2011, 11:37:28 pm »
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It's "inner city" if you could be genuinely worried about being shot, or if you have reason to be fearful because you're a white person.  Retarded hipsterville has never been "inner city" by anyone's definition except maybe some retarded hipsters who want to show "solidarity" with the poor that they studiously avoid, or perhaps merely want to "live ironically."
To be fair, BRTD does live in the "inner city" by geographical designation.  Just because it's not majority black or crime ridden does not mean it's not inner city.  It's in the core urban area of a major metropolitan area and votes overwhelmingly Democratic in elections.  The only difference between what Krazen said and reality is that where BRTD lives is, not, in fact, a dump.  While it's not gentrified or upscale and even looks a bit grungy... it is pretty white by inner city standards (as is Minneapolis and St. Paul as a whole)... though if I remember correctly, his neighborhood is overwhelmingly made up of youngs despite not being near the university.  But that's because of the cheap rent.. not due to being "hipster"
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wormyguy
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« Reply #29 on: May 11, 2011, 11:43:04 pm »
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It's "inner city" if you could be genuinely worried about being shot, or if you have reason to be fearful because you're a white person.  Retarded hipsterville has never been "inner city" by anyone's definition except maybe some retarded hipsters who want to show "solidarity" with the poor that they studiously avoid, or perhaps merely want to "live ironically."
To be fair, BRTD does live in the "inner city" by geographical designation.  Just because it's not majority black or crime ridden does not mean it's not inner city.  It's in the core urban area of a major metropolitan area and votes overwhelmingly Democratic in elections.  The only difference between what Krazen said and reality is that where BRTD is, not, in fact, a dump.  While it's not gentrified or upscale and definitely looks a bit grungy... though if I remember correctly, his neighborhood is overwhelmingly made up of youngs despite not being near the university.

Okay, then what do you know, I'm in the "inner city" too.  "Inner city" might literally have a geographical meaning, but when 99% of people say "inner city" they're referring to a sociocultural phenomenon of isolated, lower-class, minority ghettoes.  Otherwise we'd have absurdities like parts of NYC with $250,000 parking spaces being designated "inner city."
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« Reply #30 on: May 11, 2011, 11:55:41 pm »
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The definition of inner-city is "the older, generally poorer, more densely populated areas of a city."

In this definition, at least to me, age of establishment and population density are the two defining factors while being poor minority-majority ghettoes are simply stereotypes that vary from city to city...
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wormyguy
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« Reply #31 on: May 11, 2011, 11:57:20 pm »
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Wiki sayeth:

"The inner city is the central area of a major city or metropolis. In the United States, Canada, United Kingdom and Ireland, the term is often applied to the lower-income residential districts in the city centre and nearby areas. Sociologists in these countries sometimes turn this euphemism into a formal designation, applying the term "inner city" to such residential areas rather than to geographically more central commercial districts.

...

The peculiar American sociological usage is rooted in the middle 20th century. When automobiles became affordable in the United States and forced busing ensued, many middle and high-income residents, who were mostly white, moved to suburbs to have larger lots and houses, and a lower crime rate. The loss of population and affluent taxpayers caused many inner city communities to fall into urban decay. Late in the century, many such areas underwent gentrification, especially in the Northeast and West coast, depriving them of the "inner city" label despite their unchanged location."
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« Reply #32 on: May 12, 2011, 02:35:45 am »
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So, do you think it will remain 59-41, or are you seeing Democratic gains?

There's going to be big Democratic gains, thanks to the census. I wouldn't be surprised to see it 65-35 again.

Think what's gone on in Colorado in the past few years. That's Kentucky a few years from now.

Kentucky doesn't have the population gain or demographics to become the next Colorado, at least on the federal level.  It grew slower than the rest of the country over the past decade.  And most higher-growth areas aren't exactly Denver or Boulder, save a few areas near Lexington - if even.
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« Reply #33 on: May 12, 2011, 08:50:26 am »
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Krazy and Wormy making valued contributions as usual. Roll Eyes
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« Reply #34 on: May 12, 2011, 09:42:41 am »
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It's "inner city" if you could be genuinely worried about being shot, or if you have reason to be fearful because you're a white person.  Retarded hipsterville has never been "inner city" by anyone's definition except maybe some retarded hipsters who want to show "solidarity" with the poor that they studiously avoid, or perhaps merely want to "live ironically."

Even in Minnesota, CD-4 and CD-5 are a combined 100k underpopulated while CD-6 is 100k over.


The population in Minneapolis probably is high enough not to eliminate a legislative district there, but such is not true for Cleveland and Detroit and many other shrinking cities. Democratic representatives can and will be thrown to the wolves.

The point of course is obvious. The GOP really isn't capped out in a lot of places, contrary to what some may think. Population rebalance can and will draw better maps, as shown by Mr. Solomon's Texas map which creates many more safe districts than the existing one.
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« Reply #35 on: May 12, 2011, 11:48:59 am »
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It's "inner city" if you could be genuinely worried about being shot, or if you have reason to be fearful because you're a white person.  Retarded hipsterville has never been "inner city" by anyone's definition except maybe some retarded hipsters who want to show "solidarity" with the poor that they studiously avoid, or perhaps merely want to "live ironically."

Even in Minnesota, CD-4 and CD-5 are a combined 100k underpopulated while CD-6 is 100k over.


The population in Minneapolis probably is high enough not to eliminate a legislative district there, but such is not true for Cleveland and Detroit and many other shrinking cities. Democratic representatives can and will be thrown to the wolves.

The point of course is obvious. The GOP really isn't capped out in a lot of places, contrary to what some may think. Population rebalance can and will draw better maps, as shown by Mr. Solomon's Texas map which creates many more safe districts than the existing one.

actually in the case of Minnesota. The 4th district would take all of the excess population off of the 6th. The 5th would then take off all the excess from the 4th and the 3rd would take off all the excess from the 5th. The 2nd would take off excess from the 3rd, the 1st would take off excess from the 2nd, the 7th would take off excess from the 1st, and the 8th would take off excess from the 7th.
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« Reply #36 on: May 12, 2011, 04:43:07 pm »
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Texas and Georgia already are heavily gerrymandered for Republicans.  So is South Carolina. 

Texas is a court map IIRC, since Democrats controlled the State house in 2001 and couldn't agree with Perry on a map so it went to the courts.  Remember they dropped to 76 seats in 2008--not something that could realistically happen in a Republican-Gerrymandered map.  They'll also probably pick up a seat or two in South Texas since they can uncrack the Republican votes there.

Same with Georgia I think, though I'm pretty sure it was a Dem Gerrymander turned Dummymander, so I don't know.  Republicans tried to redraw the map in 2005 but got struck down, which is why the current congressional map looks kind of reasonable.

The GOP got to redraw the Georgia state Legislature map back in 2003 after the Dem map was struck down. 

Nope, the current state legislature map isn't (mostly) a GOP gerrymander. It was redrawn in 2004 by the GA Supreme Court (majority Democratic appointees, ftr) who found the Democratic plan unconstitutional. When the GOP redrew the Congressional map they only did a "pin point" redistricting of the state legislature maps, altering a handful of districts mostly in the Athens area.
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« Reply #37 on: May 12, 2011, 08:57:06 pm »
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I don't know if the GOP will fully take NC or not. Due to the NC gubernatorial race being in the same year as the Presidency (and a US Senate Seat this year), I believe the federal election will influence how voters choose their state/local candidates; NC has a tradition of voting R for Federal and D for State/Local.

How Perdue and the Legislature handle education in the budget - massive cuts expected to make NC First in Flight and Last in Education - will probably be the biggest decider on a non-federal level as to who wins in NC.
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« Reply #38 on: November 11, 2011, 11:26:30 am »
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As far as the South is concerned, the last bastions of Democratic strength are now in Arkansas, Kentucky, and West Virginia.  With the clear exception of West Virginia (the state GOP is too far behind to actually take the legislature there -at least in 2012), does anyone else think that the GOP can take Arkansas and Kentucky next year?  
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #39 on: November 11, 2011, 12:20:27 pm »
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As far as the South is concerned, the last bastions of Democratic strength are now in Arkansas, Kentucky, and West Virginia.  With the clear exception of West Virginia (the state GOP is too far behind to actually take the legislature there -at least in 2012), does anyone else think that the GOP can take Arkansas and Kentucky next year?  

It's increasingly obvious that the GOP is out of luck in Kentucky.
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« Reply #40 on: November 11, 2011, 12:25:08 pm »
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LOL @ the WV Senate.
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« Reply #41 on: November 11, 2011, 04:45:04 pm »
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In Kentucky, I expect the Senate will remain Republican and that they will pick up around 6 seats in the House.  Obama at the top of the ticket will be a drag on Democrats.

In West Virginia, there is no place to go but up in the Senate and the GOP should gain 8 seats for a 20 to 14 balance in favor of the Democrats.  In the House, I expect around a 5 seat GOP gain for a 60 to 40 Democrat chamber.

I think the GOP will take control of both chambers in Arkansas.

I see little change in the following state's legislatures:  Tennessee, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, and Oklahoma. 

In Texas, the Democrats should gain 5 to 8 seats in the House.  The Senate will remain 19-12 or perhaps have a one seat GOP gain to 20-11. 

In Florida, the Republicans are over-represented.  With the new redistricting, they should gain 4 or 5 seats and perhaps 10 in the House.  The new Senate might be 42 to 16 and the House 71 to 49 in the Republican's favor.

Really, in all states but Florida and North Carolina, Obama will be a drag for the Democrats chances.  In North Carolina, Obama's help to the ticket will be counter-balanced by the new districts drawn by the Republican legislature.

Oh, and if a new election is ordered in Mississippi, the Republican margins will be maintained pretty much as they are.  If the new legislature is given the opportunity to draw the boundaries, for sure.  If they are court ordered, I still don't see much advantage for the Democrats there as black majority districts would be protected leaving the Republican districts in tact.
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« Reply #42 on: November 11, 2011, 04:47:44 pm »
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In Kentucky, I expect the Senate will remain Republican and that they will pick up around 6 seats in the House.

To see the look on your face a year from now...
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« Reply #43 on: November 12, 2011, 01:00:57 am »
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In Kentucky, I expect the Senate will remain Republican and that they will pick up around 6 seats in the House.

To see the look on your face a year from now...
I imagine it will look a year older. 

What am I missing about what you are implying.  Are you saying that because a moderate-conservative incumbent Democrat is re-elected as Governor of Kentucky, the Republicans are in decline in the state (Commonwealth)? 

I stand by my prediction.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #44 on: November 12, 2011, 01:03:45 am »
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What am I missing about what you are implying.  Are you saying that because a moderate-conservative incumbent Democrat is re-elected as Governor of Kentucky, the Republicans are in decline in the state (Commonwealth)? 

I stand by my prediction.

For starts, the census helps the Democrats in Kentucky. For another, the Republicans ARE in decline, as we saw this week.
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« Reply #45 on: November 12, 2011, 04:15:30 am »
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What am I missing about what you are implying.  Are you saying that because a moderate-conservative incumbent Democrat is re-elected as Governor of Kentucky, the Republicans are in decline in the state (Commonwealth)? 

I stand by my prediction.

For starts, the census helps the Democrats in Kentucky. For another, the Republicans ARE in decline, as we saw this week.

How did we see that the Kentucky GOP is in decline?

I am just wondering, since I'm having a hard time seeing KY trend toward the Dems. The Democratic presidential candidate haven't won a larger percentage than 41% since Bill Clinton carried the state in 1996. The Congressional delegation in overwhelmingly Republican.
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« Reply #46 on: November 12, 2011, 05:39:33 am »
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Is somebody seriously trying to argue the demographic trainwreck is coming for Republicans in KY?
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #47 on: November 12, 2011, 08:17:56 am »
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What factors would be better for Kentucky Republicans in 2012 than were present in 2010?
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #48 on: November 12, 2011, 11:05:36 am »
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How did we see that the Kentucky GOP is in decline?

Didn't you see the election results on Tuesday?
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #49 on: November 12, 2011, 11:07:05 am »
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Is somebody seriously trying to argue the demographic trainwreck is coming for Republicans in KY?

Did anybody 5 years ago think Colorado would be as Democratic as it is now?
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