Southern State Legislative Chambers Up in 2012

[Heimdal]

How did we see that the Kentucky GOP is in decline?

Didn't you see the election results on Tuesday?

I saw a popular incumbent moderate/conservative Democrat win the gubernatorial election, in a state that sometime votes for moderate and conservative Democrats (like Bill Clinton).

It goes to show that the Democrats can be competitive in KY with the right kind of candidate, not that the state is the next Colorado.

[rbt48]

How did we see that the Kentucky GOP is in decline?

Didn't you see the election results on Tuesday?

I saw a popular incumbent moderate/conservative Democrat win the gubernatorial election, in a state that sometime votes for moderate and conservative Democrats (like Bill Clinton).

It goes to show that the Democrats can be competitive in KY with the right kind of candidate, not that the state is the next Colorado.

Yes, I agree.  The future is brighter for Republicans in Kentucky than for Democrats.  Kentucky really still has a leftover Democratic bias from the end of the Civil War.  Though it remained in the Union during the war, immediately afterward it aligned itself strongly with the Solid South, perhaps in part in response to the passage of the 13th Amendment.  Like Mississippi and Arkansas (until recently), it supports a moderate/conservative Democrat for State offices, all things being equal.  But its tendency to support Republicans in Federal elections is inevitably going to be reflected more and more in State elections.  Until 1994, the 1st and 2nd CDs (western Kentucky) would never elect a Republican.  Now, can anyone envision them electing a Democrat anytime soon?

[BigSkyBob]

What factors would be better for Kentucky Republicans in 2012 than were present in 2010?

The concentration of "target" seats, and the resultant concentration of resourses into that state.

[Leslie Graves]

There could be more movement in the 2012 state legislative elections if more challengers face off against incumbents.

We did a "competitiveness study" for the 2010 state legislative elections on Ballotpedia.  In a year that shook up the partisan landscape of many state legislatures, the incumbent chose to run for re-election in 4,985 (81.4%) of the 6,125 districts where elections took place.

In 1,295 (26.12%) of those 4,985 districts, the incumbent faced no challenger in the primary or general election.

[Nichlemn]

How did we see that the Kentucky GOP is in decline?

Didn't you see the election results on Tuesday?

Did you see the results of Oklahoma's state elections in 2006?

[Frodo]

So will the GOP take over the Arkansas legislature this year?

Arkansas GOP aims for statehouse sweep

By Suzi Parker
LITTLE ROCK, Arkansas | Sun Feb 26, 2012 6:46pm EST

(Reuters) - For more than a century, the Democratic Party has dominated Arkansas politics.

State Republican Party officials believe they have a fighting chance this year to break that streak, with plans to field the largest number of GOP candidates in more than 150 years for offices ranging from justice of the peace to Congress.

As candidates last week began filing papers stating their intention to run for state offices, Republican leaders made clear their hopes that 2012 will be the year they finally win back the Arkansas Legislature, a rare dot of Democratic blue amid a statehouse landscape dominated by GOP red across the South.

They last controlled it during Reconstruction.

"Voters are waking up to the fact that the state Democratic Party no longer reflects the views and values of every Arkansan," said Doyle Webb, Republican Party of Arkansas chairman.

Republicans are betting that they can build on the momentum of 2010, when voter frustration over the economy provided a big boost to the party in national and state elections. What's more, in Arkansas, the GOP has been making inroads with white voters living in rural areas, a group that traditionally backed Democrats, experts said.

[Miles]

I'd really hate to see Arkansas become Republican at the state level. But, its inevitable....

[Bandit3 the Worker]

With the Occupy stuff going on, I'd be very surprised if the GOP makes any gains.

[Nichlemn]

The article didn't mention that the GOP may have gained control in 2010 if they hadn't failed to contest a majority of seats.

[JoeyJoeJoe]

How did we see that the Kentucky GOP is in decline?

Didn't you see the election results on Tuesday?

Did you see the results of Oklahoma's state elections in 2006?

Republicans gained in the State Senate, achieving a tie I believe.

[SamInTheSouth]

With the Occupy stuff going on, I'd be very surprised if the GOP makes any gains.

The only people that give a crap about the Occupy crowd are the Occupy crowd.

[Frodo]

How likely is it that by this time next year, Republicans will control the legislatures of Arkansas and Kentucky?  Especially given the recent decision by the Kentucky Supreme Court that in effect forces candidates to run in the same districts that have been in place for the past decade. 

[smoltchanov]

How likely is it that by this time next year, Republicans will control the legislatures of Arkansas and Kentucky?  Especially given the recent decision by the Kentucky Supreme Court that in effect forces candidates to run in the same districts that have been in place for the past decade. 

Still (IMHO) much more likely in Arkansas then in Kentucky. Obama is very unpopular in Arkansas, Republicans made enormous gains there in 2010 (and could do more, but simply didn't had candidates in many races), and Arkansas Democratic party seems to get too lazy with decades of past elections almost without competition.

[Miles]

How likely is it that by this time next year, Republicans will control the legislatures of Arkansas and Kentucky?  Especially given the recent decision by the Kentucky Supreme Court that in effect forces candidates to run in the same districts that have been in place for the past decade. 

Still (IMHO) much more likely in Arkansas then in Kentucky. Obama is very unpopular in Arkansas, Republicans made enormous gains there in 2010 (and could do more, but simply didn't had candidates in many races), and Arkansas Democratic party seems to get too lazy with decades of past elections almost without competition.

I agree. Also, if you look at the legislators themselves in Arkansas, there's a clear generational divide; the (white) Democrats are generally older and the Republicans are younger. 'Doesn't play well for the Democrat's future.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

How likely is it that by this time next year, Republicans will control the legislatures of Arkansas and Kentucky?

In Kentucky, it's zero.

[Frodo]

Are there any Kentuckians besides Bandit who wish to comment? 

[Frodo]

How likely is it that by this time next year, Republicans will control the legislatures of Arkansas and Kentucky?  Especially given the recent decision by the Kentucky Supreme Court that in effect forces candidates to run in the same districts that have been in place for the past decade.  

Still (IMHO) much more likely in Arkansas then in Kentucky. Obama is very unpopular in Arkansas, Republicans made enormous gains there in 2010 (and could do more, but simply didn't had candidates in many races), and Arkansas Democratic party seems to get too lazy with decades of past elections almost without competition.

I agree about Arkansas and have written that state off, but why can't Republicans achieve similar success in Kentucky?  If they capture the House this November and retain control of the Senate, they will be in a position to control redistricting in that state by this time next year.  And I cannot imagine that President Obama is any more popular in Kentucky than he is in Arkansas.  

[BaldEagle1991]

I don't think the GOP can make anymore gains in TX, GA, NC, AL, MS, especially since a lot of the DEM areas are populated by ethnic minorities. 

I can see AR, KY flip over to the GOP though.

Florida will remain the same.

[Frodo]

I don't think the GOP can make anymore gains in TX, GA, NC, AL, MS, especially since a lot of the DEM areas are populated by ethnic minorities.  

I can see AR, KY flip over to the GOP though.

Florida will remain the same.

When you mention Mississippi, are you referring to it after redistricting?  Because I can see the GOP making substantial gains in the legislature padding their majorities in both chambers at the expense of white Democrats once the maps are redrawn.  

Speaking of which, are there going to be legislative elections held in the state this November given the newly redrawn districts?  Or will they wait until 2015?    

[Frodo]

This doesn't bode well for Kentucky Democrats.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

This doesn't bode well for Kentucky Democrats.

Bear in mind that Obama won the 18-24 age group in Kentucky pretty handily.

[Vosem]

This doesn't bode well for Kentucky Democrats.

Bear in mind that Obama won the 18-24 age group in Kentucky pretty handily.

The age group that votes the least? I'm sure he did.

[greenforest32]

Wow, Democrats still control the Arkansas legislature?

[old timey villain]

Georgia is becoming more and more like Florida every day: A large, diverse state, that can be competitive nationally but is still dominated by Republicans at the state level. (I'm assuming that GA will be competitive nationally in the next few cycles)

Thanks to redistricting, the GOP will have firm control of the GA legislature for the foreseeable future. But I think they may have hit their ceiling in 2010. I expect Democrats to gain a few seats in 2012. If anything it'll be due to GALEO, an organization of Hispanic elected officials who have been working on a massive voter outreach in the past year. Many Hispanics in the state will likely be compelled to vote due to the immigration law. There are a lot of districts here that would be competitive if the Hispanic and Asian residents were more politically active.

(People seem to forget that Georgia has the 10th largest Hispanic population in the nation. Most of them don't vote though.)

I also think that Democrats can still pick up seats in South Georgia....once Obama leaves office. The connection between the Democratic party and Barack Obama is just too powerful for a lot of rural white voters in that part of the state.

[old timey villain]

Also an interesting little story:

I was interning for a congressman last summer when the Georgia legislature was holding redistricting hearings where the public could provide their "very important input". I went to one and it was a total joke. All of the people on the panel were Republicans (not surprising) and I swear one guy fell asleep for a few minutes. I mean, I get that it was purely symbolic but they could have at least tried to play along with the farce.

If that's how the GOP plans to interact with its constituents then I look forward to the day when the voters interact with them by kicking them out of office.