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| | |-+  Southern State Legislative Chambers Up in 2012
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Question: Which of the following chambers do you predict will either turn Republican, or become more heavily Republican by January 2013?
AR: House   -24 (9.4%)
AR: Senate   -23 (9.1%)
FL: House   -5 (2%)
FL: Senate   -5 (2%)
GA: House   -8 (3.1%)
GA: Senate   -8 (3.1%)
KY: House   -18 (7.1%)
KY: Senate   -14 (5.5%)
NC: House   -10 (3.9%)
NC: Senate   -9 (3.5%)
TN: House   -16 (6.3%)
TN: Senate   -19 (7.5%)
TX: House   -5 (2%)
TX: Senate   -5 (2%)
WV: House   -15 (5.9%)
WV: Senate   -17 (6.7%)
SC: House   -9 (3.5%)
SC: Senate   -10 (3.9%)
OK: House   -16 (6.3%)
OK: Senate   -18 (7.1%)
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Total Voters: 30

Author Topic: Southern State Legislative Chambers Up in 2012  (Read 11320 times)
Frodo
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« Reply #75 on: May 16, 2012, 05:44:59 pm »
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Wow, Democrats still control the Arkansas legislature?

Not for much longer, if voting follows fundraising trends.  A political party in a conservative southern state tethered to a black Democratic president that is out-raised 3 to 1 cannot expect much else other than disaster in November. 

I will be keen to see if Kentucky follows suit...   
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #76 on: May 16, 2012, 05:47:59 pm »
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I will be keen to see if Kentucky follows suit...   

Kentucky has Louisville. Arkansas doesn't.

Everybody here seems to think a border state is the same as a Deep South state. It isn't.
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Frodo
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« Reply #77 on: May 16, 2012, 05:48:53 pm »
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Seriously, are there no other Kentuckians on Atlas willing to counter Bandit? 
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #78 on: May 16, 2012, 05:50:19 pm »
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Seriously, are there no other Kentuckians on Atlas willing to counter Bandit? 

Uh, I live in Kentucky. The media moguls do not. They don't know what goes on in Kentucky, but I do.
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« Reply #79 on: May 16, 2012, 11:12:03 pm »
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I will be keen to see if Kentucky follows suit...   

Kentucky has Louisville. Arkansas doesn't.

Everybody here seems to think a border state is the same as a Deep South state. It isn't.

Yes, Kentucky it different from Arkansas, even though I don't consider AR the deep south. But the region that has helped Kentucky democrats is Appalachia. If Kentucky Appalachia trends away from the democrats the way WV is, you'll see the entire state trend R in the next few cycles statewide and nationally.

By the way, what kind of democrat is Steve Beshear? I assume he is moderate to conservative considering his win last year. But what makes him so popular up there?
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #80 on: May 16, 2012, 11:17:41 pm »
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But the region that has helped Kentucky democrats is Appalachia.

Not anymore. Louisville and Lexington are the big base for Kentucky Democrats today, and they're booming.

Quote
By the way, what kind of democrat is Steve Beshear? I assume he is moderate to conservative considering his win last year. But what makes him so popular up there?

He's fairly moderate and generally pro-union, but very uncontroversial.
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« Reply #81 on: May 16, 2012, 11:22:49 pm »
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The ultimate question for Kentucky is: will it trend to Democrats in 2012 Presidential election?
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #82 on: May 16, 2012, 11:26:00 pm »
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The ultimate question for Kentucky is: will it trend to Democrats in 2012 Presidential election?

Going by what I'm seeing on the ground, I'd say it is.

This is not 1995.
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« Reply #83 on: May 19, 2012, 11:01:39 pm »
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Republicans will pick up Wendy Davis's seat in the Texas Senate since they tore her district to shreds with redistricting. Democrats will make gains in the House, probably for something like 92 GOP seats and 58 Dem seats.

The big questions in Texas will be: (1) Will the Tea Party attempt another palace coup against Joe Straus, and how horribly wrong will it go?; (2) When David Dewhurst goes to Washington, who in the Senate will replace him?; (3) Will Greg Abbott finally grow a pair and decide to run against Rick Perry in 2014?; (4) Will the Democrats be able to pit the Establishment Republicans and the Tea Partiers against one another the way the Republicans used to do with the liberal and conservative Democrats?
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This may come as a surprise, but I do have a strong head on my shoulders and I am very cognizant of what's going on around me.

It wouldn't come as a surprise. It would come as an M. Night Shyamalan-in-his-prime plot twist.
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« Reply #84 on: May 19, 2012, 11:11:38 pm »
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I have heard from some Paulite activists that there is indeed an underground movement to take out Joe Straus
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Frodo
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« Reply #85 on: May 20, 2012, 11:12:45 am »
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The West Virginia GOP has just elected a new chairman -considering how everyone views this state party to be an utter mess, could this be the beginning of a turnaround?  Could Conrad Lucas be the Reince Priebus of the West Virginia GOP?  Or more of the same?
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« Reply #86 on: May 20, 2012, 12:57:02 pm »
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Will the Democrats be able to pit the Establishment Republicans and the Tea Partiers against one another the way the Republicans used to do with the liberal and conservative Democrats?

Well the idea is to run an Ed Brooke like republican and convince him to switch to the democrats and run for the senate. . He could then make the case that he shares your values and being a former republican, could win over some republican votes. The only problem is that a lot of Ed Brooke types in Texas are probably already democrats.
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« Reply #87 on: May 20, 2012, 03:16:55 pm »
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I have heard from some Paulite activists that there is indeed an underground movement to take out Joe Straus

So.
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #88 on: May 20, 2012, 07:11:01 pm »
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Will the Democrats be able to pit the Establishment Republicans and the Tea Partiers against one another the way the Republicans used to do with the liberal and conservative Democrats?

Well the idea is to run an Ed Brooke like republican and convince him to switch to the democrats and run for the senate. . He could then make the case that he shares your values and being a former republican, could win over some republican votes. The only problem is that a lot of Ed Brooke types in Texas are probably already democrats.

The closest Texas ever had to an Ed Brooke Republican in elected office was George H. W. Bush as a Houston congressman in the 1960s. They ran quite a few Republicans who were arguably to the left of their Democratic opponents at that time, but none of them won. In 1968 and 1970, Paul Eggers ran for governor and made a higher state minimum wage part of his platform. And Ray Hutchison (state legislator in the '70s; husband of Senator KBH) was the only Texas Republican I can think of who was unequivocally pro-choice. 
Texas doesn't really have much of a moderate Republican base, with the exception of certain upscale neighborhoods in Dallas and Houston, and some Texas Germans in the Hill Country who vote more like Midwestern Republicans than Southern ones.
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This may come as a surprise, but I do have a strong head on my shoulders and I am very cognizant of what's going on around me.

It wouldn't come as a surprise. It would come as an M. Night Shyamalan-in-his-prime plot twist.
Indy Texas
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« Reply #89 on: May 20, 2012, 07:19:59 pm »
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I have heard from some Paulite activists that there is indeed an underground movement to take out Joe Straus

There is an underground movement, but it doesn't involve the Paulites (who don't have any members in the Lege). The Dan Patrick/Wayne Christian cabal tried to pull this last session and it fell apart because they didn't have the votes and even if they did, they couldn't decide on a non-Straus alternative; and because the nasty viral emails about the House needing a "good Christian" speaker (Straus is Jewish) made them look like knuckle-dragging bigots (and the bar for that is set pretty high in Texas). The Democrats like Straus and their votes combined with the Not-Batsh**t-Crazy Republicans will be enough to keep him as speaker for two more years.
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This may come as a surprise, but I do have a strong head on my shoulders and I am very cognizant of what's going on around me.

It wouldn't come as a surprise. It would come as an M. Night Shyamalan-in-his-prime plot twist.
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« Reply #90 on: May 21, 2012, 08:23:16 am »
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Wow, Democrats still control the Arkansas legislature?

Not for much longer, if voting follows fundraising trends.  A political party in a conservative southern state tethered to a black Democratic president that is out-raised 3 to 1 cannot expect much else other than disaster in November. 

I will be keen to see if Kentucky follows suit...   

If Republicans couldnt win control of the Kentucky House in 2010, they wont anytime soon. 
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Frodo
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« Reply #91 on: May 21, 2012, 09:04:58 pm »
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Wow, Democrats still control the Arkansas legislature?

Not for much longer, if voting follows fundraising trends.  A political party in a conservative southern state tethered to a black Democratic president that is out-raised 3 to 1 cannot expect much else other than disaster in November. 

I will be keen to see if Kentucky follows suit...   

If Republicans couldnt win control of the Kentucky House in 2010, they wont anytime soon. 

If you think that having Barack Obama at the top of the ticket will help down-ballot white southern Democrats, then I don't know what to say to you.  Considering how successful Republicans have been in the South in nationalizing elections, it would not surprise me if we find next January that the only southern legislature we hold in the region will be in West Virginia -and even there we are likely on borrowed time.  I am not expecting that we will be able to hold our ground even there by the 2020 census. 

And BTW, it is interesting that we have switched roles here.  I am not accustomed to you being the optimist.  Tongue
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« Reply #92 on: May 21, 2012, 09:35:25 pm »
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Wow, Democrats still control the Arkansas legislature?

Not for much longer, if voting follows fundraising trends.  A political party in a conservative southern state tethered to a black Democratic president that is out-raised 3 to 1 cannot expect much else other than disaster in November. 

I will be keen to see if Kentucky follows suit...   

If Republicans couldnt win control of the Kentucky House in 2010, they wont anytime soon. 

If you think that having Barack Obama at the top of the ticket will help down-ballot white southern Democrats, then I don't know what to say to you.  Considering how successful Republicans have been in the South in nationalizing elections, it would not surprise me if we find next January that the only southern legislature we hold in the region will be in West Virginia -and even there we are likely on borrowed time.  I am not expecting that we will be able to hold our ground even there by the 2020 census. 

And BTW, it is interesting that we have switched roles here.  I am not accustomed to you being the optimist.  Tongue

Republicans tried to nationalize the races in Kentucky in 2010 and didnt work very well.  There will be far higher minority and youth turnout in 2012, which will help Democrats. 
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Frodo
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« Reply #93 on: May 21, 2012, 09:43:55 pm »
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Wow, Democrats still control the Arkansas legislature?

Not for much longer, if voting follows fundraising trends.  A political party in a conservative southern state tethered to a black Democratic president that is out-raised 3 to 1 cannot expect much else other than disaster in November. 

I will be keen to see if Kentucky follows suit...   

If Republicans couldnt win control of the Kentucky House in 2010, they wont anytime soon. 

If you think that having Barack Obama at the top of the ticket will help down-ballot white southern Democrats, then I don't know what to say to you.  Considering how successful Republicans have been in the South in nationalizing elections, it would not surprise me if we find next January that the only southern legislature we hold in the region will be in West Virginia -and even there we are likely on borrowed time.  I am not expecting that we will be able to hold our ground even there by the 2020 census. 

And BTW, it is interesting that we have switched roles here.  I am not accustomed to you being the optimist.  Tongue

Republicans tried to nationalize the races in Kentucky in 2010 and didnt work very well.  There will be far higher minority and youth turnout in 2012, which will help Democrats. 

I guess we will just have to see when Election Day comes, won't we? 
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« Reply #94 on: June 01, 2012, 07:52:47 pm »
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Race for 2 open N.Ky. legislative will get heated

Written by Scott Wartman
6:44 PM, May. 31, 2012


While the 4th Congressional District race garnered much of the attention in the May 22 primary, both Democrats and Republicans expect state legislative races will get heated in the general election, as both parties try to pick up seats in the General Assembly.

Two open seats in Northern Kentucky have raised the hopes of members from both parties.

The retirement of State Rep. Royce Adams, D-Dry Ridge, could open the door for the first Republican to represent Grant County in the House for more than 150 years.

Jack Westwood’s decision not to seek re-election in the 23rd Senate District in Kenton County has a Villa Hills councilman for the Democrats pitted against a concrete construction business owner from Taylor Mill for the Republicans.

Republicans have a majority in the Kentucky Senate, 22 seats to 15 with one independent. Democrats control the House, 59 to 41.
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« Reply #95 on: June 01, 2012, 08:15:23 pm »
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What about West Virginia? How much longer will Democrats hold its state legislature?
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #96 on: June 02, 2012, 11:09:59 am »
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Race for 2 open N.Ky. legislative will get heated

Written by Scott Wartman
6:44 PM, May. 31, 2012


While the 4th Congressional District race garnered much of the attention in the May 22 primary, both Democrats and Republicans expect state legislative races will get heated in the general election, as both parties try to pick up seats in the General Assembly.

Two open seats in Northern Kentucky have raised the hopes of members from both parties.

The retirement of State Rep. Royce Adams, D-Dry Ridge, could open the door for the first Republican to represent Grant County in the House for more than 150 years.

Jack Westwood’s decision not to seek re-election in the 23rd Senate District in Kenton County has a Villa Hills councilman for the Democrats pitted against a concrete construction business owner from Taylor Mill for the Republicans.

Republicans have a majority in the Kentucky Senate, 22 seats to 15 with one independent. Democrats control the House, 59 to 41.

I don't expect the parties to flip in either of these open seats.

Also, I live in Dennis Keene's district, and I KNOW he won't lose. He is an ultraconservative Democrat, but he'll win because it's a heavily Democratic district (in an otherwise Republican county).
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #97 on: June 02, 2012, 11:10:38 am »
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What about West Virginia? How much longer will Democrats hold its state legislature?

Forever.
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« Reply #98 on: June 02, 2012, 11:33:56 am »
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What about West Virginia? How much longer will Democrats hold its state legislature?

Forever.

LOL -talk about complacency.  West Virginia is already heading into Alabama and Mississippi territory at the federal level -do you seriously think that state and local races will remain unaffected by the GOP trend for much longer?

And I just read the other thread, and some actually think we will hold on even in Arkansas -where is all this optimism coming from?
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« Reply #99 on: June 02, 2012, 11:37:35 am »
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LOL -talk about complacency.  West Virginia is already heading into Alabama and Mississippi territory at the federal level -do you seriously think that state and local races will remain unaffected by the GOP trend for much longer?

By the time that shoe would have dropped, the GOP will be largely a fringe party.
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