Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 16, 2014, 07:55:36 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderator: Joe Republic)
| | |-+  Southern State Legislative Chambers Up in 2012
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 4 [5] 6 Print
Poll
Question: Which of the following chambers do you predict will either turn Republican, or become more heavily Republican by January 2013?
AR: House   -24 (9.4%)
AR: Senate   -23 (9.1%)
FL: House   -5 (2%)
FL: Senate   -5 (2%)
GA: House   -8 (3.1%)
GA: Senate   -8 (3.1%)
KY: House   -18 (7.1%)
KY: Senate   -14 (5.5%)
NC: House   -10 (3.9%)
NC: Senate   -9 (3.5%)
TN: House   -16 (6.3%)
TN: Senate   -19 (7.5%)
TX: House   -5 (2%)
TX: Senate   -5 (2%)
WV: House   -15 (5.9%)
WV: Senate   -17 (6.7%)
SC: House   -9 (3.5%)
SC: Senate   -10 (3.9%)
OK: House   -16 (6.3%)
OK: Senate   -18 (7.1%)
Show Pie Chart
Total Voters: 30

Author Topic: Southern State Legislative Chambers Up in 2012  (Read 10906 times)
Frodo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13286
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #100 on: June 02, 2012, 11:45:57 am »
Ignore

LOL -talk about complacency.  West Virginia is already heading into Alabama and Mississippi territory at the federal level -do you seriously think that state and local races will remain unaffected by the GOP trend for much longer?

By the time that shoe would have dropped, the GOP will be largely a fringe party.

No, I think it will happen sooner than that.  Perhaps within this decade.  It fits with the decades-long realignment of more southerly states, and the movement of the white working class into the GOP.  Even if Obama is no longer in office, the white working class in the South is so alienated from the Democratic Party on cultural and economic grounds that their shift in allegiance at the state and local levels is inevitable.  We are no longer in an era in which 'all politics is local' -not with the advent of the internet and the 24/7 cable news cycle. 

Logged

Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4491
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92

View Profile
« Reply #101 on: June 02, 2012, 11:50:08 am »
Ignore

No, I think it will happen sooner than that.  Perhaps within this decade.

The GOP could very well become a fringe party THIS YEAR.

Quote
It fits with the decades-long realignment of more southerly states, and the movement of the white working class into the GOP.

If working-class whites are so Republican, how did Obama win the town of Dayton, KY (which is in an otherwise Republican county)?
Logged

Try this wonderful POPULIST BLOG...

http://onlinelunchpail.blogspot.com
Frodo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13286
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #102 on: June 02, 2012, 11:51:17 am »
Ignore

No, I think it will happen sooner than that.  Perhaps within this decade.

The GOP could very well become a fringe party THIS YEAR.

Can I have whatever you're smoking?  

Quote
It fits with the decades-long realignment of more southerly states, and the movement of the white working class into the GOP.

If working-class whites are so Republican, how did Obama win the town of Dayton, KY (which is in an otherwise Republican county)?

Bush.  
Logged

Frodo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13286
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #103 on: June 02, 2012, 01:23:12 pm »
Ignore

My own predictions -the GOP will take over the Arkansas legislature this year, and will likely continue to narrow the gap in the Kentucky House while shoring up their majority in the Kentucky Senate.  This is a conservative prediction, mind you -it is entirely possible that the GOP can take over the Kentucky legislature outright, and thus be in position to redistrict the state chambers next year.

As for West Virginia -there is no chance in hell that the GOP can take over this year (needless to say), but they will gain substantially in the legislature there in both chambers much like their counterparts in Arkansas did in 2010 who faced similar daunting odds that year.  

I will not comment on the other states, except that the outlook does not look bright for Democrats anywhere in the region -especially in North Carolina.  Tongue
Logged

Mr.Phips
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4963


View Profile
« Reply #104 on: June 03, 2012, 06:25:39 pm »
Ignore

My own predictions -the GOP will take over the Arkansas legislature this year, and will likely continue to narrow the gap in the Kentucky House while shoring up their majority in the Kentucky Senate.  This is a conservative prediction, mind you -it is entirely possible that the GOP can take over the Kentucky legislature outright, and thus be in position to redistrict the state chambers next year.

As for West Virginia -there is no chance in hell that the GOP can take over this year (needless to say), but they will gain substantially in the legislature there in both chambers much like their counterparts in Arkansas did in 2010 who faced similar daunting odds that year.  

I will not comment on the other states, except that the outlook does not look bright for Democrats anywhere in the region -especially in North Carolina.  Tongue

If Republcians were going to take over the Kentucky House, 2010 would have been the year.  Same with West Virginia.  Not every year is going to be 2010 for Republicans. 
Logged
BaldEagle1991
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1077
United States


View Profile
« Reply #105 on: June 03, 2012, 06:53:05 pm »
Ignore

Will the Democrats be able to pit the Establishment Republicans and the Tea Partiers against one another the way the Republicans used to do with the liberal and conservative Democrats?

Well the idea is to run an Ed Brooke like republican and convince him to switch to the democrats and run for the senate. . He could then make the case that he shares your values and being a former republican, could win over some republican votes. The only problem is that a lot of Ed Brooke types in Texas are probably already democrats.

The closest Texas ever had to an Ed Brooke Republican in elected office was George H. W. Bush as a Houston congressman in the 1960s. They ran quite a few Republicans who were arguably to the left of their Democratic opponents at that time, but none of them won. In 1968 and 1970, Paul Eggers ran for governor and made a higher state minimum wage part of his platform. And Ray Hutchison (state legislator in the '70s; husband of Senator KBH) was the only Texas Republican I can think of who was unequivocally pro-choice. 
Texas doesn't really have much of a moderate Republican base, with the exception of certain upscale neighborhoods in Dallas and Houston, and some Texas Germans in the Hill Country who vote more like Midwestern Republicans than Southern ones. 


They don't.
Logged

"Weezy F Baby and the F is for Phenomenal" - Lil' Wayne

"Look at this photograph/Every time I do it makes me laugh/How did our eyes get so red?/And what the hell is on Joey's head?" - Nickelback
Nichlemn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1339


View Profile
« Reply #106 on: June 03, 2012, 07:11:23 pm »
Ignore

My own predictions -the GOP will take over the Arkansas legislature this year, and will likely continue to narrow the gap in the Kentucky House while shoring up their majority in the Kentucky Senate.  This is a conservative prediction, mind you -it is entirely possible that the GOP can take over the Kentucky legislature outright, and thus be in position to redistrict the state chambers next year.

As for West Virginia -there is no chance in hell that the GOP can take over this year (needless to say), but they will gain substantially in the legislature there in both chambers much like their counterparts in Arkansas did in 2010 who faced similar daunting odds that year.  

I will not comment on the other states, except that the outlook does not look bright for Democrats anywhere in the region -especially in North Carolina.  Tongue

If Republcians were going to take over the Kentucky House, 2010 would have been the year.  Same with West Virginia.  Not every year is going to be 2010 for Republicans. 

Not everything moves exactly in tandem with the national climate. (In fact, this is probably the biggest mistake people make with respect to downballot predictions).
Logged
Frodo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13286
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #107 on: July 19, 2012, 07:42:13 pm »
Ignore

Just came upon this analysis of the Arkansas Senate, and in brief, it states Republicans are favored to win the chamber due to declining population in the Delta region, and conversely rising population in the northwest of the state.  

Thoughts?

« Last Edit: July 21, 2012, 01:27:14 pm by Frodo »Logged

Mr.Phips
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4963


View Profile
« Reply #108 on: August 06, 2012, 05:21:23 am »
Ignore

Just came upon this analysis of the Arkansas Senate, and in brief, it states Republicans are favored to win the chamber due to declining population in the Delta region, and conversely rising population in the northwest of the state.  

Thoughts?



This wasnt a problem for Republicans in the New York state Senate, who didnt have to shift seats downstate due to population changes or in the Virginia Assembly, where Democratic NOVA gained districts.  What Democrats should have done to compensate for this shift is to pack as many Republicans as possible into the smallest number of Northwestern districts possible and stitch together districts out of Democratic precincts in that part of the state. 
Logged
Frodo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13286
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #109 on: August 06, 2012, 06:19:42 am »
Ignore

Also, in West Virginia, the GOP is taking aim at the southern part of the state where the Democratic Party has been most dominant.
Logged

Mr.Phips
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4963


View Profile
« Reply #110 on: August 06, 2012, 08:04:21 am »
Ignore

Wow, Democrats still control the Arkansas legislature?

Not for much longer, if voting follows fundraising trends.  A political party in a conservative southern state tethered to a black Democratic president that is out-raised 3 to 1 cannot expect much else other than disaster in November. 

I will be keen to see if Kentucky follows suit...   

If Republicans couldnt win control of the Kentucky House in 2010, they wont anytime soon. 

If you think that having Barack Obama at the top of the ticket will help down-ballot white southern Democrats, then I don't know what to say to you.  Considering how successful Republicans have been in the South in nationalizing elections, it would not surprise me if we find next January that the only southern legislature we hold in the region will be in West Virginia -and even there we are likely on borrowed time.  I am not expecting that we will be able to hold our ground even there by the 2020 census. 

And BTW, it is interesting that we have switched roles here.  I am not accustomed to you being the optimist.  Tongue

Then how come Republicans are still able to hold on to strongly Democratic legislative seats in New York, Michigan and Pennsylvania?  Wont having Mitt Romney at the top of the ticket hurt them?
Logged
krazen1211
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5667


View Profile
« Reply #111 on: August 06, 2012, 09:46:13 am »
Ignore

Wow, Democrats still control the Arkansas legislature?

Not for much longer, if voting follows fundraising trends.  A political party in a conservative southern state tethered to a black Democratic president that is out-raised 3 to 1 cannot expect much else other than disaster in November. 

I will be keen to see if Kentucky follows suit...   

If Republicans couldnt win control of the Kentucky House in 2010, they wont anytime soon. 

If you think that having Barack Obama at the top of the ticket will help down-ballot white southern Democrats, then I don't know what to say to you.  Considering how successful Republicans have been in the South in nationalizing elections, it would not surprise me if we find next January that the only southern legislature we hold in the region will be in West Virginia -and even there we are likely on borrowed time.  I am not expecting that we will be able to hold our ground even there by the 2020 census. 

And BTW, it is interesting that we have switched roles here.  I am not accustomed to you being the optimist.  Tongue

Then how come Republicans are still able to hold on to strongly Democratic legislative seats in New York, Michigan and Pennsylvania?  Wont having Mitt Romney at the top of the ticket hurt them?

2 of those 3 are not strongly Democratic. The third is done through vicious gerrymandering.
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4491
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92

View Profile
« Reply #112 on: August 06, 2012, 12:05:19 pm »
Ignore


If they want to waste money, let 'em.

It's hilarious they're targeting Boone County, Obama's best county in West Virginia.
Logged

Try this wonderful POPULIST BLOG...

http://onlinelunchpail.blogspot.com
BigSkyBob
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2259
View Profile
« Reply #113 on: August 07, 2012, 09:06:50 am »
Ignore


If they want to waste money, let 'em.

It's hilarious they're targeting Boone County, Obama's best county in West Virginia.

But, even if their candidates lose, the money will have been invested, not lost.
Logged

The real scandal in Washington is not the bribery, corruption, or sex. It is how poorly we are governed.
Mr.Phips
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4963


View Profile
« Reply #114 on: August 07, 2012, 02:50:35 pm »
Ignore

Wow, Democrats still control the Arkansas legislature?

Not for much longer, if voting follows fundraising trends.  A political party in a conservative southern state tethered to a black Democratic president that is out-raised 3 to 1 cannot expect much else other than disaster in November. 

I will be keen to see if Kentucky follows suit...   

If Republicans couldnt win control of the Kentucky House in 2010, they wont anytime soon. 

If you think that having Barack Obama at the top of the ticket will help down-ballot white southern Democrats, then I don't know what to say to you.  Considering how successful Republicans have been in the South in nationalizing elections, it would not surprise me if we find next January that the only southern legislature we hold in the region will be in West Virginia -and even there we are likely on borrowed time.  I am not expecting that we will be able to hold our ground even there by the 2020 census. 

And BTW, it is interesting that we have switched roles here.  I am not accustomed to you being the optimist.  Tongue

Then how come Republicans are still able to hold on to strongly Democratic legislative seats in New York, Michigan and Pennsylvania?  Wont having Mitt Romney at the top of the ticket hurt them?

2 of those 3 are not strongly Democratic. The third is done through vicious gerrymandering.

There are districts in Pennsylvania and Michigan that Republicans hold that are over 60% Obama.  Same in New York. 
Logged
Frodo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13286
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #115 on: September 24, 2012, 07:12:13 pm »
Ignore

I don't know if this will have any bearing on who will likely control the Arkansas legislature, but according to a recent poll it looks like there will be a Republican sweep of all four Arkansas congressional districts
Logged

morgieb
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5037
Australia


View Profile
« Reply #116 on: September 24, 2012, 07:29:33 pm »
Ignore

I don't know if this will have any bearing on who will likely control the Arkansas legislature, but according to a recent poll it looks like there will be a Republican sweep of all four Arkansas congressional districts
That was always gonna happen IMO.
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4491
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92

View Profile
« Reply #117 on: September 24, 2012, 09:28:30 pm »
Ignore

I don't know if this will have any bearing on who will likely control the Arkansas legislature, but according to a recent poll it looks like there will be a Republican sweep of all four Arkansas congressional districts

But don't the Democrats have one of the districts now? Why would the Republicans be gaining a seat?
Logged

Try this wonderful POPULIST BLOG...

http://onlinelunchpail.blogspot.com
rbt48
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 741


View Profile WWW
« Reply #118 on: September 24, 2012, 09:50:52 pm »
Ignore

In Arkansas, the Lt Gov is not first in line to become governor in case of a vacancy.  I think the law was changed to make the Senate President first in line after Mike Huckabee moved up when Tucker was convicted and had to resign.  At that time, the state legislature was so heavily Democratic, no one envisioned that Republicans would assume control.  
"If the elected governor resigns, dies, is removed, or is otherwise unable to discharge the office, the president of the Senate is the first to succeed, serving as the governor until an election is held. He also serves as acting governor if the incumbent is temporarily unable to exercise his office. The next in line is the speaker of the Arkansas House of Representatives. Arkansas is unusual is that there is a constitutionally designated lieutenant governor, but he is not the first in the line of succession."

Perhaps if the GOP takes the State Senate in November, a lame duck session will return the Lt Gov to being first in line (though the current Lt Gov, Mark Darr, is a Republican anyway).
« Last Edit: October 23, 2012, 06:58:54 pm by rbt48 »Logged

Emperor Scott
Scott
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17142
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -5.74

View Profile WWW
« Reply #119 on: September 24, 2012, 10:10:14 pm »
Ignore

I don't know if this will have any bearing on who will likely control the Arkansas legislature, but according to a recent poll it looks like there will be a Republican sweep of all four Arkansas congressional districts.  

But don't the Democrats have one of the districts now? Why would the Republicans be gaining a seat?

Bad redistricting... on the Democrats' part.

So now, I guess it's safe to say the days of swing-statehood for Arkansas are long gone.  Sigh.
Logged



mondale84
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1324
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -3.30

P P P
View Profile
« Reply #120 on: September 25, 2012, 02:20:49 pm »
Ignore

I don't know if this will have any bearing on who will likely control the Arkansas legislature, but according to a recent poll it looks like there will be a Republican sweep of all four Arkansas congressional districts.  

But don't the Democrats have one of the districts now? Why would the Republicans be gaining a seat?

Bad redistricting... on the Democrats' part.

So now, I guess it's safe to say the days of swing-statehood for Arkansas are long gone.  Sigh.

Yeah except that poll was complete bogus. None of the Dems even broke 30% which is ridiculous. It also showed Romney +21% (which is what this particular poll has shown all year) despite all the recent swings.

I don't buy the Republican hype for Arkansas...
Logged


"There are no men like me. There's only me."
Emperor Scott
Scott
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17142
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -5.74

View Profile WWW
« Reply #121 on: September 25, 2012, 08:14:36 pm »
Ignore

I don't know if this will have any bearing on who will likely control the Arkansas legislature, but according to a recent poll it looks like there will be a Republican sweep of all four Arkansas congressional districts

But don't the Democrats have one of the districts now? Why would the Republicans be gaining a seat?

Bad redistricting... on the Democrats' part.

So now, I guess it's safe to say the days of swing-statehood for Arkansas are long gone.  Sigh.

Yeah except that poll was complete bogus. None of the Dems even broke 30% which is ridiculous. It also showed Romney +21% (which is what this particular poll has shown all year) despite all the recent swings.

I don't buy the Republican hype for Arkansas...

I'm sure Obama will carry Arkansas 52-48%.
« Last Edit: September 25, 2012, 08:16:11 pm by Senator Scott »Logged



Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon
htmldon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8846
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.03, S: -2.26

View Profile
« Reply #122 on: September 25, 2012, 08:20:05 pm »
Ignore

So now, I guess it's safe to say the days of swing-statehood for Arkansas are long gone.  Sigh.

Try not to think about what might have been...

Logged
Frodo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13286
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #123 on: October 17, 2012, 06:48:48 pm »
Ignore

Only three more weeks until Election Day -does anyone have any (preferably non-hackish) predictions for these legislatures?  Especially in Arkansas and Kentucky?  
Logged

morgieb
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5037
Australia


View Profile
« Reply #124 on: October 19, 2012, 05:29:47 pm »
Ignore

We look ed in Arkansas, reckon we'll hold on in Kentucky though.
Logged
Pages: 1 2 3 4 [5] 6 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines