Southern State Legislative Chambers Up in 2012

[Bandit3 the Worker]

It's practically a given that the Democrats are going to gain seats in Kentucky, thanks to the census. In fact, one member just switched from Republican to Democratic.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Again, with Obama at the top, the Kentucky State House will likely get a few more GOP members.

Um, no.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

So, do you think it will remain 59-41, or are you seeing Democratic gains?

There's going to be big Democratic gains, thanks to the census. I wouldn't be surprised to see it 65-35 again.

Think what's gone on in Colorado in the past few years. That's Kentucky a few years from now.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

As far as the South is concerned, the last bastions of Democratic strength are now in Arkansas, Kentucky, and West Virginia.  With the clear exception of West Virginia (the state GOP is too far behind to actually take the legislature there -at least in 2012), does anyone else think that the GOP can take Arkansas and Kentucky next year?  

It's increasingly obvious that the GOP is out of luck in Kentucky.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

In Kentucky, I expect the Senate will remain Republican and that they will pick up around 6 seats in the House.

To see the look on your face a year from now...

[Bandit3 the Worker]

What am I missing about what you are implying.  Are you saying that because a moderate-conservative incumbent Democrat is re-elected as Governor of Kentucky, the Republicans are in decline in the state (Commonwealth)? 

I stand by my prediction.

For starts, the census helps the Democrats in Kentucky. For another, the Republicans ARE in decline, as we saw this week.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

How did we see that the Kentucky GOP is in decline?

Didn't you see the election results on Tuesday?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Is somebody seriously trying to argue the demographic trainwreck is coming for Republicans in KY?

Did anybody 5 years ago think Colorado would be as Democratic as it is now?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

With the Occupy stuff going on, I'd be very surprised if the GOP makes any gains.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

How likely is it that by this time next year, Republicans will control the legislatures of Arkansas and Kentucky?

In Kentucky, it's zero.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

This doesn't bode well for Kentucky Democrats.

Bear in mind that Obama won the 18-24 age group in Kentucky pretty handily.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I will be keen to see if Kentucky follows suit...   

Kentucky has Louisville. Arkansas doesn't.

Everybody here seems to think a border state is the same as a Deep South state. It isn't.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Seriously, are there no other Kentuckians on Atlas willing to counter Bandit? 

Uh, I live in Kentucky. The media moguls do not. They don't know what goes on in Kentucky, but I do.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

But the region that has helped Kentucky democrats is Appalachia.

Not anymore. Louisville and Lexington are the big base for Kentucky Democrats today, and they're booming.

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He's fairly moderate and generally pro-union, but very uncontroversial.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The ultimate question for Kentucky is: will it trend to Democrats in 2012 Presidential election?

Going by what I'm seeing on the ground, I'd say it is.

This is not 1995.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Race for 2 open N.Ky. legislative will get heated

Written by Scott Wartman
6:44 PM, May. 31, 2012

While the 4th Congressional District race garnered much of the attention in the May 22 primary, both Democrats and Republicans expect state legislative races will get heated in the general election, as both parties try to pick up seats in the General Assembly.

Two open seats in Northern Kentucky have raised the hopes of members from both parties.

The retirement of State Rep. Royce Adams, D-Dry Ridge, could open the door for the first Republican to represent Grant County in the House for more than 150 years.

Jack Westwood’s decision not to seek re-election in the 23rd Senate District in Kenton County has a Villa Hills councilman for the Democrats pitted against a concrete construction business owner from Taylor Mill for the Republicans.

Republicans have a majority in the Kentucky Senate, 22 seats to 15 with one independent. Democrats control the House, 59 to 41.

I don't expect the parties to flip in either of these open seats.

Also, I live in Dennis Keene's district, and I KNOW he won't lose. He is an ultraconservative Democrat, but he'll win because it's a heavily Democratic district (in an otherwise Republican county).

[Bandit3 the Worker]

What about West Virginia? How much longer will Democrats hold its state legislature?

Forever.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

LOL -talk about complacency.  West Virginia is already heading into Alabama and Mississippi territory at the federal level -do you seriously think that state and local races will remain unaffected by the GOP trend for much longer?

By the time that shoe would have dropped, the GOP will be largely a fringe party.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

No, I think it will happen sooner than that.  Perhaps within this decade.

The GOP could very well become a fringe party THIS YEAR.

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If working-class whites are so Republican, how did Obama win the town of Dayton, KY (which is in an otherwise Republican county)?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Also, in West Virginia, the GOP is taking aim at the southern part of the state where the Democratic Party has been most dominant.

If they want to waste money, let 'em.

It's hilarious they're targeting Boone County, Obama's best county in West Virginia.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I don't know if this will have any bearing on who will likely control the Arkansas legislature, but according to a recent poll it looks like there will be a Republican sweep of all four Arkansas congressional districts. 

But don't the Democrats have one of the districts now? Why would the Republicans be gaining a seat?