Southern State Legislative Chambers Up in 2012

[Frodo]

Based much on the same format I followed for the 2011 thread.  

And here are the chambers (based on this list from BallotPedia) and their current makeup, which will be subject to updates:

Arkansas House:

51 Republicans
49 Democrats

Arkansas Senate:

21 Republicans
14 Democrats

Florida House:

74 Republicans
46 Democrats

Florida Senate:

26 Republicans
14 Democrats

Georgia House:

119 Republicans
60 Democrats
1 independent

Georgia Senate:

38 Republicans
18 Democrats

Kentucky House:

55 Democrats
45 Republicans

Kentucky Senate:

23 Republicans
14 Democrats
1 independent

North Carolina House:

77 Republicans
43 Democrats

North Carolina Senate:

32 Republicans
18 Democrats

Tennessee House:

71 Republicans
27 Democrats
1 independent

Tennessee Senate:

26 Republicans
7 Democrats

Texas House:

95 Republicans
55 Democrats

Texas Senate:

19 Republicans
12 Democrats

West Virginia House:

54 Democrats
46 Republicans

West Virginia Senate:

24 Democrats
10 Republicans

South Carolina House:

76 Republicans
46 Democrats

South Carolina Senate:

28 Republicans
18 Democrats

Oklahoma House:

72 Republicans
29 Democrats

Oklahoma Senate:

36 Republicans
12 Democrats

[Frodo]

As far as the South is concerned, the last bastions of Democratic strength are now in Arkansas, Kentucky, and West Virginia.  With the clear exception of West Virginia (the state GOP is too far behind to actually take the legislature there -at least in 2012), does anyone else think that the GOP can take Arkansas and Kentucky next year?  

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So will the GOP take over the Arkansas legislature this year?

Arkansas GOP aims for statehouse sweep

By Suzi Parker
LITTLE ROCK, Arkansas | Sun Feb 26, 2012 6:46pm EST

(Reuters) - For more than a century, the Democratic Party has dominated Arkansas politics.

State Republican Party officials believe they have a fighting chance this year to break that streak, with plans to field the largest number of GOP candidates in more than 150 years for offices ranging from justice of the peace to Congress.

As candidates last week began filing papers stating their intention to run for state offices, Republican leaders made clear their hopes that 2012 will be the year they finally win back the Arkansas Legislature, a rare dot of Democratic blue amid a statehouse landscape dominated by GOP red across the South.

They last controlled it during Reconstruction.

"Voters are waking up to the fact that the state Democratic Party no longer reflects the views and values of every Arkansan," said Doyle Webb, Republican Party of Arkansas chairman.

Republicans are betting that they can build on the momentum of 2010, when voter frustration over the economy provided a big boost to the party in national and state elections. What's more, in Arkansas, the GOP has been making inroads with white voters living in rural areas, a group that traditionally backed Democrats, experts said.

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How likely is it that by this time next year, Republicans will control the legislatures of Arkansas and Kentucky?  Especially given the recent decision by the Kentucky Supreme Court that in effect forces candidates to run in the same districts that have been in place for the past decade. 

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Are there any Kentuckians besides Bandit who wish to comment? 

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How likely is it that by this time next year, Republicans will control the legislatures of Arkansas and Kentucky?  Especially given the recent decision by the Kentucky Supreme Court that in effect forces candidates to run in the same districts that have been in place for the past decade.  

Still (IMHO) much more likely in Arkansas then in Kentucky. Obama is very unpopular in Arkansas, Republicans made enormous gains there in 2010 (and could do more, but simply didn't had candidates in many races), and Arkansas Democratic party seems to get too lazy with decades of past elections almost without competition.

I agree about Arkansas and have written that state off, but why can't Republicans achieve similar success in Kentucky?  If they capture the House this November and retain control of the Senate, they will be in a position to control redistricting in that state by this time next year.  And I cannot imagine that President Obama is any more popular in Kentucky than he is in Arkansas.  

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I don't think the GOP can make anymore gains in TX, GA, NC, AL, MS, especially since a lot of the DEM areas are populated by ethnic minorities.  

I can see AR, KY flip over to the GOP though.

Florida will remain the same.

When you mention Mississippi, are you referring to it after redistricting?  Because I can see the GOP making substantial gains in the legislature padding their majorities in both chambers at the expense of white Democrats once the maps are redrawn.  

Speaking of which, are there going to be legislative elections held in the state this November given the newly redrawn districts?  Or will they wait until 2015?    

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This doesn't bode well for Kentucky Democrats.

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Wow, Democrats still control the Arkansas legislature?

Not for much longer, if voting follows fundraising trends.  A political party in a conservative southern state tethered to a black Democratic president that is out-raised 3 to 1 cannot expect much else other than disaster in November. 

I will be keen to see if Kentucky follows suit...   

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Seriously, are there no other Kentuckians on Atlas willing to counter Bandit? 

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The West Virginia GOP has just elected a new chairman -considering how everyone views this state party to be an utter mess, could this be the beginning of a turnaround?  Could Conrad Lucas be the Reince Priebus of the West Virginia GOP?  Or more of the same?

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Wow, Democrats still control the Arkansas legislature?

Not for much longer, if voting follows fundraising trends.  A political party in a conservative southern state tethered to a black Democratic president that is out-raised 3 to 1 cannot expect much else other than disaster in November. 

I will be keen to see if Kentucky follows suit...   

If Republicans couldnt win control of the Kentucky House in 2010, they wont anytime soon. 

If you think that having Barack Obama at the top of the ticket will help down-ballot white southern Democrats, then I don't know what to say to you.  Considering how successful Republicans have been in the South in nationalizing elections, it would not surprise me if we find next January that the only southern legislature we hold in the region will be in West Virginia -and even there we are likely on borrowed time.  I am not expecting that we will be able to hold our ground even there by the 2020 census. 

And BTW, it is interesting that we have switched roles here.  I am not accustomed to you being the optimist. 

[Frodo]

Wow, Democrats still control the Arkansas legislature?

Not for much longer, if voting follows fundraising trends.  A political party in a conservative southern state tethered to a black Democratic president that is out-raised 3 to 1 cannot expect much else other than disaster in November. 

I will be keen to see if Kentucky follows suit...   

If Republicans couldnt win control of the Kentucky House in 2010, they wont anytime soon. 

If you think that having Barack Obama at the top of the ticket will help down-ballot white southern Democrats, then I don't know what to say to you.  Considering how successful Republicans have been in the South in nationalizing elections, it would not surprise me if we find next January that the only southern legislature we hold in the region will be in West Virginia -and even there we are likely on borrowed time.  I am not expecting that we will be able to hold our ground even there by the 2020 census. 

And BTW, it is interesting that we have switched roles here.  I am not accustomed to you being the optimist. 

Republicans tried to nationalize the races in Kentucky in 2010 and didnt work very well.  There will be far higher minority and youth turnout in 2012, which will help Democrats. 

I guess we will just have to see when Election Day comes, won't we? 

[Frodo]

Race for 2 open N.Ky. legislative will get heated

Written by Scott Wartman
6:44 PM, May. 31, 2012

While the 4th Congressional District race garnered much of the attention in the May 22 primary, both Democrats and Republicans expect state legislative races will get heated in the general election, as both parties try to pick up seats in the General Assembly.

Two open seats in Northern Kentucky have raised the hopes of members from both parties.

The retirement of State Rep. Royce Adams, D-Dry Ridge, could open the door for the first Republican to represent Grant County in the House for more than 150 years.

Jack Westwood’s decision not to seek re-election in the 23rd Senate District in Kenton County has a Villa Hills councilman for the Democrats pitted against a concrete construction business owner from Taylor Mill for the Republicans.

Republicans have a majority in the Kentucky Senate, 22 seats to 15 with one independent. Democrats control the House, 59 to 41.

[Frodo]

What about West Virginia? How much longer will Democrats hold its state legislature?

Forever.

LOL -talk about complacency.  West Virginia is already heading into Alabama and Mississippi territory at the federal level -do you seriously think that state and local races will remain unaffected by the GOP trend for much longer?

And I just read the other thread, and some actually think we will hold on even in Arkansas -where is all this optimism coming from?

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LOL -talk about complacency.  West Virginia is already heading into Alabama and Mississippi territory at the federal level -do you seriously think that state and local races will remain unaffected by the GOP trend for much longer?

By the time that shoe would have dropped, the GOP will be largely a fringe party.

No, I think it will happen sooner than that.  Perhaps within this decade.  It fits with the decades-long realignment of more southerly states, and the movement of the white working class into the GOP.  Even if Obama is no longer in office, the white working class in the South is so alienated from the Democratic Party on cultural and economic grounds that their shift in allegiance at the state and local levels is inevitable.  We are no longer in an era in which 'all politics is local' -not with the advent of the internet and the 24/7 cable news cycle. 

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No, I think it will happen sooner than that.  Perhaps within this decade.

The GOP could very well become a fringe party THIS YEAR.

Can I have whatever you're smoking?  

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If working-class whites are so Republican, how did Obama win the town of Dayton, KY (which is in an otherwise Republican county)?

Bush.  

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My own predictions -the GOP will take over the Arkansas legislature this year, and will likely continue to narrow the gap in the Kentucky House while shoring up their majority in the Kentucky Senate.  This is a conservative prediction, mind you -it is entirely possible that the GOP can take over the Kentucky legislature outright, and thus be in position to redistrict the state chambers next year.

As for West Virginia -there is no chance in hell that the GOP can take over this year (needless to say), but they will gain substantially in the legislature there in both chambers much like their counterparts in Arkansas did in 2010 who faced similar daunting odds that year.  

I will not comment on the other states, except that the outlook does not look bright for Democrats anywhere in the region -especially in North Carolina.  

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Just came upon this analysis of the Arkansas Senate, and in brief, it states Republicans are favored to win the chamber due to declining population in the Delta region, and conversely rising population in the northwest of the state.  

Thoughts?

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Also, in West Virginia, the GOP is taking aim at the southern part of the state where the Democratic Party has been most dominant.

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I don't know if this will have any bearing on who will likely control the Arkansas legislature, but according to a recent poll it looks like there will be a Republican sweep of all four Arkansas congressional districts. 

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Only three more weeks until Election Day -does anyone have any (preferably non-hackish) predictions for these legislatures?  Especially in Arkansas and Kentucky?  

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The Courier-Journal has been kind enough to provide articles on the races for the Kentucky House, and the Kentucky Senate.  

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Post election results for the region here.  It will be far easier than having multiple threads for each state clogging up this board. 

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It seems Arkansas Republicans have won control of both houses of the legislature, with a 21-14 majority in the Senate, and, pending further election results, are on course to have a narrow majority in the House as well. 

Republicans also gained seats in both chambers in Kentucky, but the House remains in Democratic hands. 

And in the Mountain State, Republicans have just gained 11 seats in the House, and has another 3 members in the Senate.