2006 Senate Seats
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 19, 2024, 04:54:43 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  2006 Senate Seats
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 5
Author Topic: 2006 Senate Seats  (Read 31346 times)
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,611


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: December 11, 2004, 12:40:45 AM »

PA

Hoffel managed 41% against a moderate candidate.  If he runs again in 06, he will do better than that against the super-arch Conservative Santorum who has presided in the Senate much more Conservative than he ran in 2000..  hoffel or even any Dem that runs could win based on the moderate voters in the state (ie take the voters that voted for Specter & Kerry).  Hoffel or whoever runs in 06, will also do much better among Dems than hoffel did this year.  because of his moderate views Specter did pretty well for a Republican among Democrats no way Santorum comes close to that feat

Super arch conservative. You guys are classic. If Hoeffel runs, Santorum will win. Now will Hoeffel get more than 42% of the vote, yes, of course. However, I don't think Hoeffel will be the nominee anyway. What Dems have to realize is that Santorum is popular among conservative Democrats (a large group of voters in PA especially out west).

Now whoever the Dem is might be able to pull away moderate Republican votes but other than that, not much else. I like how Dems (especially out of state Dems) make it sound so easy. "Oh yeah just take the Kerry voters and Santorum will lose." It doesn't work like that here. Hoeffel can't win. Hafer (the likely nominee) can't win. The only candidate that could beat Santorum (Bob Casey, Jr.) has ruled out a run. PA will stay Republican.

Santorum is a super-arch Conservative.  My point about the split ticket Specter-Kerry voters is that the vast majority of those are either moderates tp moderate Dems, people who more than likley will vote for someone like Hoffel or any other Democrat over Santorum.  Yes I am an out-of stater, but Santorum is very conservative and cerainly more conservative than the platform he ran under in 2000.  I just have a hard time believing that the moderate voters in the state are going to vote for someone who is an extremist candidate like Santorum is.  Santorum did get some of that moderate vote in 2000, but as I said he is certainly more Conservative than the platform he ran under & IMHO will have a hard time keeping the moderate vote he had in 2000.  Democrats who were ok with Specter aren't going to vote for Santorum either.

Oh he is? Why doesn't this super-arch conservative have a super-arch conservative 99 or 100 rating from the ACU? Santorum is not an extremist.

As I stated earlier, conservative Dems and conservative Republicans will send Santorum back to the Senate. Sure the moderate vote will go more towards the Democratic nominee this time around but it won't be enough.

Oh, yeah those "Democrats that were ok with Specter" are liberal Dems who didn't vote for Santorum in 2000 and never planned on voting for him in 2006. They don't make up enough of the voting population in the state to swing the election.
Logged
Smash255
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,443


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: December 11, 2004, 01:19:13 AM »

PA

Hoffel managed 41% against a moderate candidate.  If he runs again in 06, he will do better than that against the super-arch Conservative Santorum who has presided in the Senate much more Conservative than he ran in 2000..  hoffel or even any Dem that runs could win based on the moderate voters in the state (ie take the voters that voted for Specter & Kerry).  Hoffel or whoever runs in 06, will also do much better among Dems than hoffel did this year.  because of his moderate views Specter did pretty well for a Republican among Democrats no way Santorum comes close to that feat

Super arch conservative. You guys are classic. If Hoeffel runs, Santorum will win. Now will Hoeffel get more than 42% of the vote, yes, of course. However, I don't think Hoeffel will be the nominee anyway. What Dems have to realize is that Santorum is popular among conservative Democrats (a large group of voters in PA especially out west).

Now whoever the Dem is might be able to pull away moderate Republican votes but other than that, not much else. I like how Dems (especially out of state Dems) make it sound so easy. "Oh yeah just take the Kerry voters and Santorum will lose." It doesn't work like that here. Hoeffel can't win. Hafer (the likely nominee) can't win. The only candidate that could beat Santorum (Bob Casey, Jr.) has ruled out a run. PA will stay Republican.

Santorum is a super-arch Conservative.  My point about the split ticket Specter-Kerry voters is that the vast majority of those are either moderates tp moderate Dems, people who more than likley will vote for someone like Hoffel or any other Democrat over Santorum.  Yes I am an out-of stater, but Santorum is very conservative and cerainly more conservative than the platform he ran under in 2000.  I just have a hard time believing that the moderate voters in the state are going to vote for someone who is an extremist candidate like Santorum is.  Santorum did get some of that moderate vote in 2000, but as I said he is certainly more Conservative than the platform he ran under & IMHO will have a hard time keeping the moderate vote he had in 2000.  Democrats who were ok with Specter aren't going to vote for Santorum either.

Oh he is? Why doesn't this super-arch conservative have a super-arch conservative 99 or 100 rating from the ACU? Santorum is not an extremist.

As I stated earlier, conservative Dems and conservative Republicans will send Santorum back to the Senate. Sure the moderate vote will go more towards the Democratic nominee this time around but it won't be enough.

Oh, yeah those "Democrats that were ok with Specter" are liberal Dems who didn't vote for Santorum in 2000 and never planned on voting for him in 2006. They don't make up enough of the voting population in the state to swing the election.

He was what a 95??  thats pretty damn Conservative.  I have a tough time believeing even Conservative Dems are going to vote for someone as out there as this guy.  Keep in mind he is far more Conservative than how he ran in 2000.  And any cross-over he got from Conservative Dems and moderate in general will probably be lost because of how far right he has become
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,611


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: December 11, 2004, 01:20:28 AM »

PA

Hoffel managed 41% against a moderate candidate.  If he runs again in 06, he will do better than that against the super-arch Conservative Santorum who has presided in the Senate much more Conservative than he ran in 2000..  hoffel or even any Dem that runs could win based on the moderate voters in the state (ie take the voters that voted for Specter & Kerry).  Hoffel or whoever runs in 06, will also do much better among Dems than hoffel did this year.  because of his moderate views Specter did pretty well for a Republican among Democrats no way Santorum comes close to that feat

Super arch conservative. You guys are classic. If Hoeffel runs, Santorum will win. Now will Hoeffel get more than 42% of the vote, yes, of course. However, I don't think Hoeffel will be the nominee anyway. What Dems have to realize is that Santorum is popular among conservative Democrats (a large group of voters in PA especially out west).

Now whoever the Dem is might be able to pull away moderate Republican votes but other than that, not much else. I like how Dems (especially out of state Dems) make it sound so easy. "Oh yeah just take the Kerry voters and Santorum will lose." It doesn't work like that here. Hoeffel can't win. Hafer (the likely nominee) can't win. The only candidate that could beat Santorum (Bob Casey, Jr.) has ruled out a run. PA will stay Republican.

Santorum is a super-arch Conservative.  My point about the split ticket Specter-Kerry voters is that the vast majority of those are either moderates tp moderate Dems, people who more than likley will vote for someone like Hoffel or any other Democrat over Santorum.  Yes I am an out-of stater, but Santorum is very conservative and cerainly more conservative than the platform he ran under in 2000.  I just have a hard time believing that the moderate voters in the state are going to vote for someone who is an extremist candidate like Santorum is.  Santorum did get some of that moderate vote in 2000, but as I said he is certainly more Conservative than the platform he ran under & IMHO will have a hard time keeping the moderate vote he had in 2000.  Democrats who were ok with Specter aren't going to vote for Santorum either.

Oh he is? Why doesn't this super-arch conservative have a super-arch conservative 99 or 100 rating from the ACU? Santorum is not an extremist.

As I stated earlier, conservative Dems and conservative Republicans will send Santorum back to the Senate. Sure the moderate vote will go more towards the Democratic nominee this time around but it won't be enough.

Oh, yeah those "Democrats that were ok with Specter" are liberal Dems who didn't vote for Santorum in 2000 and never planned on voting for him in 2006. They don't make up enough of the voting population in the state to swing the election.

He was what a 95??  thats pretty damn Conservative. 

Actually he has an 86 rating.
Logged
Smash255
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,443


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: December 11, 2004, 01:30:55 AM »

PA

Hoffel managed 41% against a moderate candidate.  If he runs again in 06, he will do better than that against the super-arch Conservative Santorum who has presided in the Senate much more Conservative than he ran in 2000..  hoffel or even any Dem that runs could win based on the moderate voters in the state (ie take the voters that voted for Specter & Kerry).  Hoffel or whoever runs in 06, will also do much better among Dems than hoffel did this year.  because of his moderate views Specter did pretty well for a Republican among Democrats no way Santorum comes close to that feat

Super arch conservative. You guys are classic. If Hoeffel runs, Santorum will win. Now will Hoeffel get more than 42% of the vote, yes, of course. However, I don't think Hoeffel will be the nominee anyway. What Dems have to realize is that Santorum is popular among conservative Democrats (a large group of voters in PA especially out west).

Now whoever the Dem is might be able to pull away moderate Republican votes but other than that, not much else. I like how Dems (especially out of state Dems) make it sound so easy. "Oh yeah just take the Kerry voters and Santorum will lose." It doesn't work like that here. Hoeffel can't win. Hafer (the likely nominee) can't win. The only candidate that could beat Santorum (Bob Casey, Jr.) has ruled out a run. PA will stay Republican.

Santorum is a super-arch Conservative.  My point about the split ticket Specter-Kerry voters is that the vast majority of those are either moderates tp moderate Dems, people who more than likley will vote for someone like Hoffel or any other Democrat over Santorum.  Yes I am an out-of stater, but Santorum is very conservative and cerainly more conservative than the platform he ran under in 2000.  I just have a hard time believing that the moderate voters in the state are going to vote for someone who is an extremist candidate like Santorum is.  Santorum did get some of that moderate vote in 2000, but as I said he is certainly more Conservative than the platform he ran under & IMHO will have a hard time keeping the moderate vote he had in 2000.  Democrats who were ok with Specter aren't going to vote for Santorum either.

Oh he is? Why doesn't this super-arch conservative have a super-arch conservative 99 or 100 rating from the ACU? Santorum is not an extremist.

As I stated earlier, conservative Dems and conservative Republicans will send Santorum back to the Senate. Sure the moderate vote will go more towards the Democratic nominee this time around but it won't be enough.

Oh, yeah those "Democrats that were ok with Specter" are liberal Dems who didn't vote for Santorum in 2000 and never planned on voting for him in 2006. They don't make up enough of the voting population in the state to swing the election.

He was what a 95??  thats pretty damn Conservative. 

Actually he has an 86 rating.

Well actually 87 & he has gotten more Conservative as time has gone on.  He was #95 in 2002 & #90 in 2003, his 2003 # would be higher, but the ACU actually cited with the Dems & against the GOP  in the medicare reform bill (although for different reasons)
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,611


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: December 11, 2004, 01:36:12 AM »

PA

Hoffel managed 41% against a moderate candidate.  If he runs again in 06, he will do better than that against the super-arch Conservative Santorum who has presided in the Senate much more Conservative than he ran in 2000..  hoffel or even any Dem that runs could win based on the moderate voters in the state (ie take the voters that voted for Specter & Kerry).  Hoffel or whoever runs in 06, will also do much better among Dems than hoffel did this year.  because of his moderate views Specter did pretty well for a Republican among Democrats no way Santorum comes close to that feat

Super arch conservative. You guys are classic. If Hoeffel runs, Santorum will win. Now will Hoeffel get more than 42% of the vote, yes, of course. However, I don't think Hoeffel will be the nominee anyway. What Dems have to realize is that Santorum is popular among conservative Democrats (a large group of voters in PA especially out west).

Now whoever the Dem is might be able to pull away moderate Republican votes but other than that, not much else. I like how Dems (especially out of state Dems) make it sound so easy. "Oh yeah just take the Kerry voters and Santorum will lose." It doesn't work like that here. Hoeffel can't win. Hafer (the likely nominee) can't win. The only candidate that could beat Santorum (Bob Casey, Jr.) has ruled out a run. PA will stay Republican.

Santorum is a super-arch Conservative.  My point about the split ticket Specter-Kerry voters is that the vast majority of those are either moderates tp moderate Dems, people who more than likley will vote for someone like Hoffel or any other Democrat over Santorum.  Yes I am an out-of stater, but Santorum is very conservative and cerainly more conservative than the platform he ran under in 2000.  I just have a hard time believing that the moderate voters in the state are going to vote for someone who is an extremist candidate like Santorum is.  Santorum did get some of that moderate vote in 2000, but as I said he is certainly more Conservative than the platform he ran under & IMHO will have a hard time keeping the moderate vote he had in 2000.  Democrats who were ok with Specter aren't going to vote for Santorum either.

Oh he is? Why doesn't this super-arch conservative have a super-arch conservative 99 or 100 rating from the ACU? Santorum is not an extremist.

As I stated earlier, conservative Dems and conservative Republicans will send Santorum back to the Senate. Sure the moderate vote will go more towards the Democratic nominee this time around but it won't be enough.

Oh, yeah those "Democrats that were ok with Specter" are liberal Dems who didn't vote for Santorum in 2000 and never planned on voting for him in 2006. They don't make up enough of the voting population in the state to swing the election.

He was what a 95??  thats pretty damn Conservative. 

Actually he has an 86 rating.

Well actually 87 & he has gotten more Conservative as time has gone on.  He was #95 in 2002 & #90 in 2003, his 2003 # would be higher, but the ACU actually cited with the Dems & against the GOP  in the medicare reform bill (although for different reasons)

His lifetime rating is 87. He's not an extreme right winger.
Logged
Smash255
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,443


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: December 11, 2004, 01:48:51 AM »

PA

Hoffel managed 41% against a moderate candidate.  If he runs again in 06, he will do better than that against the super-arch Conservative Santorum who has presided in the Senate much more Conservative than he ran in 2000..  hoffel or even any Dem that runs could win based on the moderate voters in the state (ie take the voters that voted for Specter & Kerry).  Hoffel or whoever runs in 06, will also do much better among Dems than hoffel did this year.  because of his moderate views Specter did pretty well for a Republican among Democrats no way Santorum comes close to that feat

Super arch conservative. You guys are classic. If Hoeffel runs, Santorum will win. Now will Hoeffel get more than 42% of the vote, yes, of course. However, I don't think Hoeffel will be the nominee anyway. What Dems have to realize is that Santorum is popular among conservative Democrats (a large group of voters in PA especially out west).

Now whoever the Dem is might be able to pull away moderate Republican votes but other than that, not much else. I like how Dems (especially out of state Dems) make it sound so easy. "Oh yeah just take the Kerry voters and Santorum will lose." It doesn't work like that here. Hoeffel can't win. Hafer (the likely nominee) can't win. The only candidate that could beat Santorum (Bob Casey, Jr.) has ruled out a run. PA will stay Republican.

Santorum is a super-arch Conservative.  My point about the split ticket Specter-Kerry voters is that the vast majority of those are either moderates tp moderate Dems, people who more than likley will vote for someone like Hoffel or any other Democrat over Santorum.  Yes I am an out-of stater, but Santorum is very conservative and cerainly more conservative than the platform he ran under in 2000.  I just have a hard time believing that the moderate voters in the state are going to vote for someone who is an extremist candidate like Santorum is.  Santorum did get some of that moderate vote in 2000, but as I said he is certainly more Conservative than the platform he ran under & IMHO will have a hard time keeping the moderate vote he had in 2000.  Democrats who were ok with Specter aren't going to vote for Santorum either.

Oh he is? Why doesn't this super-arch conservative have a super-arch conservative 99 or 100 rating from the ACU? Santorum is not an extremist.

As I stated earlier, conservative Dems and conservative Republicans will send Santorum back to the Senate. Sure the moderate vote will go more towards the Democratic nominee this time around but it won't be enough.

Oh, yeah those "Democrats that were ok with Specter" are liberal Dems who didn't vote for Santorum in 2000 and never planned on voting for him in 2006. They don't make up enough of the voting population in the state to swing the election.

He was what a 95??  thats pretty damn Conservative. 

Actually he has an 86 rating.

Well actually 87 & he has gotten more Conservative as time has gone on.  He was #95 in 2002 & #90 in 2003, his 2003 # would be higher, but the ACU actually cited with the Dems & against the GOP  in the medicare reform bill (although for different reasons)

His lifetime rating is 87. He's not an extreme right winger.

he has become an extremist.  Santorum is FAR more conservative now than he was earlier in his Congressional career, hell he is even quite a bit more conservative now than he was 4 years ago when he first ran.  Thats the point I'm trying to make, is Santorum has evolved into an extreme right wing guy
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,611


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: December 11, 2004, 01:52:00 AM »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Extreme - Jim Inhofe, Pat Robertson, Jerry Falwell....

I honestly don't see Santorum as an extremist and neither do the people of Pennsylvania. They approve of his job as Senator.
Logged
Smash255
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,443


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: December 11, 2004, 01:54:57 AM »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Extreme - Jim Inhofe, Pat Robertson, Jerry Falwell....

I honestly don't see Santorum as an extremist and neither do the people of Pennsylvania. They approve of his job as Senator.


Welll with some of the thing he has said about gays he can fit in the Falwell & Robertson category
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,611


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: December 11, 2004, 01:57:54 AM »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Extreme - Jim Inhofe, Pat Robertson, Jerry Falwell....

I honestly don't see Santorum as an extremist and neither do the people of Pennsylvania. They approve of his job as Senator.


Welll with some of the thing he has said about gays he can fit in the Falwell & Robertson category

The gay comment went alittle too far but I don't believe he hates gays as many believe he does.
Logged
Smash255
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,443


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: December 11, 2004, 02:09:59 AM »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Extreme - Jim Inhofe, Pat Robertson, Jerry Falwell....

I honestly don't see Santorum as an extremist and neither do the people of Pennsylvania. They approve of his job as Senator.


Welll with some of the thing he has said about gays he can fit in the Falwell & Robertson category

The gay comment went alittle too far but I don't believe he hates gays as many believe he does.

his gay comments sound very much like comment Jerry Falwell has made on gays, granted he hasn't said gays caused 9/11 like Falwell did, but Santorum has had some very harsh & disturbing words about gays which pretty much mirrors what has been said by Falwell & Robertson. 

Anyway my whole point is the Rick Santorum of 2004 is without a doubt more conservative than the Rick Santorum that ran for Senate in 2000, and that will may very well pose a problem for him in the 2006 election. the support & votes he had from the more liberal republicans, .conservative Dems, and overall moderates in general may not be there in 06. A moderate Democrat can really paint Santorum as being outside of the mainstream, an extremist & basically use some of his comments to prove the point.
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,611


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: December 11, 2004, 02:16:22 AM »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Extreme - Jim Inhofe, Pat Robertson, Jerry Falwell....

I honestly don't see Santorum as an extremist and neither do the people of Pennsylvania. They approve of his job as Senator.


Welll with some of the thing he has said about gays he can fit in the Falwell & Robertson category

The gay comment went alittle too far but I don't believe he hates gays as many believe he does.

Anyway my whole point is the Rick Santorum of 2004 is without a doubt more conservative than the Rick Santorum that ran for Senate in 2000, and that will may very well pose a problem for him in the 2006 election. the support & votes he had from the more liberal republicans, .conservative Dems, and overall moderates in general may not be there in 06. A moderate Democrat can really paint Santorum as being outside of the mainstream, an extremist & basically use some of his comments to prove the point.

I don't think you understand that Pennsylvanians accept Santorum's views and that's why he has some of the highest approval ratings in the state. The only Democrat that could beat Santorum is a conservative Democrat - Bob Casey, Jr. And Casey is not running so in my opinion, Santorum will keep the seat.
Logged
danwxman
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,532


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: December 11, 2004, 03:14:46 AM »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Extreme - Jim Inhofe, Pat Robertson, Jerry Falwell....

I honestly don't see Santorum as an extremist and neither do the people of Pennsylvania. They approve of his job as Senator.


Welll with some of the thing he has said about gays he can fit in the Falwell & Robertson category

The gay comment went alittle too far but I don't believe he hates gays as many believe he does.

Anyway my whole point is the Rick Santorum of 2004 is without a doubt more conservative than the Rick Santorum that ran for Senate in 2000, and that will may very well pose a problem for him in the 2006 election. the support & votes he had from the more liberal republicans, .conservative Dems, and overall moderates in general may not be there in 06. A moderate Democrat can really paint Santorum as being outside of the mainstream, an extremist & basically use some of his comments to prove the point.

I don't think you understand that Pennsylvanians accept Santorum's views and that's why he has some of the highest approval ratings in the state. The only Democrat that could beat Santorum is a conservative Democrat - Bob Casey, Jr. And Casey is not running so in my opinion, Santorum will keep the seat.

Got a source for any recent approval ratings for Santorum? I heard they were slipping during the election season.
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,611


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: December 11, 2004, 11:29:19 AM »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Extreme - Jim Inhofe, Pat Robertson, Jerry Falwell....

I honestly don't see Santorum as an extremist and neither do the people of Pennsylvania. They approve of his job as Senator.


Welll with some of the thing he has said about gays he can fit in the Falwell & Robertson category

The gay comment went alittle too far but I don't believe he hates gays as many believe he does.

Anyway my whole point is the Rick Santorum of 2004 is without a doubt more conservative than the Rick Santorum that ran for Senate in 2000, and that will may very well pose a problem for him in the 2006 election. the support & votes he had from the more liberal republicans, .conservative Dems, and overall moderates in general may not be there in 06. A moderate Democrat can really paint Santorum as being outside of the mainstream, an extremist & basically use some of his comments to prove the point.

I don't think you understand that Pennsylvanians accept Santorum's views and that's why he has some of the highest approval ratings in the state. The only Democrat that could beat Santorum is a conservative Democrat - Bob Casey, Jr. And Casey is not running so in my opinion, Santorum will keep the seat.

Got a source for any recent approval ratings for Santorum? I heard they were slipping during the election season.

The last ones I've seen were the August numbers. I have no idea how you can "hear" about approval ratings when no ratings have been released.
Logged
zorkpolitics
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,188
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: December 11, 2004, 03:06:59 PM »

In a mathematical ranking of the Senate produced by the Optimal Classification algorithm using 498 roll call vote, Santorum ranked 85th.   Thus 15 Senators (all Republican of course) were more conservative.

see:
Non-Parametric Unfolding of Binary Choice Data.  Political Analysis, 8:211-237, 2000

Logged
danwxman
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,532


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: December 11, 2004, 03:48:10 PM »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Extreme - Jim Inhofe, Pat Robertson, Jerry Falwell....

I honestly don't see Santorum as an extremist and neither do the people of Pennsylvania. They approve of his job as Senator.


Welll with some of the thing he has said about gays he can fit in the Falwell & Robertson category

The gay comment went alittle too far but I don't believe he hates gays as many believe he does.

Anyway my whole point is the Rick Santorum of 2004 is without a doubt more conservative than the Rick Santorum that ran for Senate in 2000, and that will may very well pose a problem for him in the 2006 election. the support & votes he had from the more liberal republicans, .conservative Dems, and overall moderates in general may not be there in 06. A moderate Democrat can really paint Santorum as being outside of the mainstream, an extremist & basically use some of his comments to prove the point.

I don't think you understand that Pennsylvanians accept Santorum's views and that's why he has some of the highest approval ratings in the state. The only Democrat that could beat Santorum is a conservative Democrat - Bob Casey, Jr. And Casey is not running so in my opinion, Santorum will keep the seat.

Got a source for any recent approval ratings for Santorum? I heard they were slipping during the election season.

The last ones I've seen were the August numbers. I have no idea how you can "hear" about approval ratings when no ratings have been released.

What are the numbers from August? I posted an article on here a while ago that said Santorum's approval numbers were slipping.
Logged
CARLHAYDEN
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,638


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: December 11, 2004, 04:15:23 PM »

Republican seats seem mostly safe, Dems weakest links:

Senator Cantwell (D-WA), only won by a few 100 votes last time, but now that Dino Rossi has a statewide position, her chances of facing a semi-decent opponent are slim.

Senator Bingaman (D-NM), seems safe, but the state is trending Republican plus the two GOP Representatives (most likely to run) seem popular.

Senator Nelson (D-FL), it all depends on what mood Jeb Bush is on GOP primary filing day.

Senator Nelson (D-NE), although Gov. Johanns is now in the cabinet, I still do not believe that singles him out as a contender. Many cabinet members run for office while serving, if not Nelson will still face Rep. Osbourne.

Senator Dayton (D-MN), the guy is just an embarrasment to this country. Tongue

Senator Stabenow (D-MI), she seems safe but she barely got by last time.

Senator Clinton (D-NY), same as Florida, it all depends on what mood Giuliani is in on GOP primary filing day.

I must respectfully disagree in several particulars:

First, the one vunerable Republican seat is held by Santorun (Pennsylvania).  Depends on the Democrat nominee.

Second, the most vunerable Democrat is Conrad of North Dakota (he's way out of step with the electorate in that state).  It will be interesting to see if he changes his voting record in the next two years to one a little less extremely liberal.

Also, Bingaham (New Mexcio) is so far out in left-field that if the Republicans field a decent candidate, he's toast.

Nelson (Florida) needs to moderate his liberalism and hope that he doesn't face a first class candidate (like Jeb).

Its pretty difficult to see any other incumbent seeking reelection losing.

The fly in the ointment is retirements/deaths.  This can change things for a few seats.

Finally, it will be interesting to see if Jefford runs as a Democrat or an Independent in Vermont (or maybe doesn't seek reelection at all).  If he runs as an Independent and the Democrats nominate a non-joke candidate and the Republicans run a quality candidate (the current Governor comes to mind), they could pull it out in Vermont.
Logged
phk
phknrocket1k
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,906


Political Matrix
E: 1.42, S: -1.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: December 11, 2004, 04:26:58 PM »
« Edited: December 11, 2004, 04:35:30 PM by phknrocket1k »

Conrad will get re-elected easily, he even won more votes than Bush did in 2000, and hes to the right of Dorgan.
Logged
CARLHAYDEN
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,638


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: December 11, 2004, 04:49:25 PM »

The secret that several great plains liberal Democrats had IN THE PAST was that: (1) the voters were NOT aware of the voting records (when the South Dakota voters became award of Daschle's voting record, they canned him), and (2) when they had either a Democrat President (93-00) and or a majority in their chamber (01-02) they could deliver the bacon. 

It remains to be seen if Conrad will rush to the middle in the next two years (I suspect you will see considerable movement by him in that direction, it depends how far), and if the Republicans decide to target him.

It will be particularly interesting to see if Conrad breaks with the other liberal Democrats in trying to filibuster Bush's appointments.
Logged
they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 112,583
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: December 11, 2004, 04:56:16 PM »

Dorgan got reelected easily last election, so the Republicans in ND sure aren't going too well when it comes to winning Senate seats. Conrad will win easily. And Bingaman will also win easily, he's a long term very heavily entrenched incumbent who won with no problems at all in 2000.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,590
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: December 11, 2004, 05:05:18 PM »

Conrad is in no danger
Logged
CARLHAYDEN
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,638


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #45 on: December 11, 2004, 05:13:19 PM »

We will see.

I never cease to be amazed that lefties from the UK make pronouncements about American politics in the absence of facts and logic.

I pointed out the two factors which allowed him to win reelection previously no longer apply.

Both the ADA and the ACU are in agreement that Conrad is on the left of the Democrat party in the Senate, in what is a conservative Republican state.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,590
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #46 on: December 11, 2004, 05:22:41 PM »

I never cease to be amazed that lefties from the UK make pronouncements about American politics in the absence of facts and logic.

I pointed out the two factors which allowed him to win reelection previously no longer apply.

Both the ADA and the ACU are in agreement that Conrad is on the left of the Democrat party in the Senate, in what is a conservative Republican state.

I'll ignore your first remark...
North Dakota isn't really a "conservative Republican state". It votes Republican at Presidential level, this is true, but it's also got a long tradition of Progressive Populism and general bloody mindedness.

Besides, Dorgan and Pomeroy (sp? I always get this wrong) were re-elected this year.
Logged
Sam Spade
SamSpade
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,547


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #47 on: December 11, 2004, 05:56:35 PM »

Conrad is only in real danger in Gov. Hoeven runs.

North Dakota simply isn't as anti-incumbent historically as South Dakota is.
Logged
Keystone Phil
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,611


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #48 on: December 11, 2004, 06:02:10 PM »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Extreme - Jim Inhofe, Pat Robertson, Jerry Falwell....

I honestly don't see Santorum as an extremist and neither do the people of Pennsylvania. They approve of his job as Senator.


Welll with some of the thing he has said about gays he can fit in the Falwell & Robertson category

The gay comment went alittle too far but I don't believe he hates gays as many believe he does.

Anyway my whole point is the Rick Santorum of 2004 is without a doubt more conservative than the Rick Santorum that ran for Senate in 2000, and that will may very well pose a problem for him in the 2006 election. the support & votes he had from the more liberal republicans, .conservative Dems, and overall moderates in general may not be there in 06. A moderate Democrat can really paint Santorum as being outside of the mainstream, an extremist & basically use some of his comments to prove the point.

I don't think you understand that Pennsylvanians accept Santorum's views and that's why he has some of the highest approval ratings in the state. The only Democrat that could beat Santorum is a conservative Democrat - Bob Casey, Jr. And Casey is not running so in my opinion, Santorum will keep the seat.

Got a source for any recent approval ratings for Santorum? I heard they were slipping during the election season.

The last ones I've seen were the August numbers. I have no idea how you can "hear" about approval ratings when no ratings have been released.

What are the numbers from August? I posted an article on here a while ago that said Santorum's approval numbers were slipping.

What were the numbers from the article? Quinnipiac had Santorum with about a 55% approval rating and the lowest disapproval numbers out of the three officials polled.
Logged
danwxman
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,532


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #49 on: December 11, 2004, 06:04:37 PM »

It just said his numbers were slipping and lower then Spector's.
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 5  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.071 seconds with 11 queries.