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Author Topic: 2006 Senate Seats  (Read 20770 times)
A18
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« on: December 05, 2004, 10:08:54 pm »
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I counted the Independent as a Democrat, since he votes with them.

Blue = GOP, Red = Democrat
Green = no election
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« Reply #1 on: December 05, 2004, 11:28:46 pm »
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 Is Kay Bailey Hutchinton's Seat up?
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #2 on: December 05, 2004, 11:32:41 pm »
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Yes.
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Ben.
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« Reply #3 on: December 06, 2004, 02:56:26 am »
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I counted the Independent as a Democrat, since he votes with them.

Blue = GOP, Red = Democrat
Green = no election


Mississippi, Tennessee and Virginia are not automatically GOP holds IMHO, VA only becomes a toss-up if Warner runs ditto with Mississippi if Mike Moore runs, Tennessee however is a toss-up what ever happens. 

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« Reply #4 on: December 06, 2004, 03:06:18 am »
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Any chance of running a strong candidate against Lincoln Chafee? If I'm not mistaken he only got 53% of the vote last time.
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« Reply #5 on: December 06, 2004, 04:09:36 am »
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Ben, Trent Lott will be re-elected easily. If anything the racist remarks have increased his popularity. I mean, this is Mississippi we are talking about.
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« Reply #6 on: December 06, 2004, 04:55:52 am »
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Ben, Trent Lott will be re-elected easily. If anything the racist remarks have increased his popularity. I mean, this is Mississippi we are talking about.


If he runs and faces a paper candidate maybe, if he retires and Moore runs then it will be close if he does run again and Moore runs i think he'd only have a slight advantage... without Moore the GOP will win easily of course. 
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« Reply #7 on: December 06, 2004, 11:23:27 am »
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Lott would kill Moore.

Warner has no hope, he's not even in the picture for that seat.

TN is not a tossup, either. That's lean GOP unless something weird happens.
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« Reply #8 on: December 06, 2004, 07:00:21 pm »
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Republican seats seem mostly safe, Dems weakest links:

Senator Cantwell (D-WA), only won by a few 100 votes last time, but now that Dino Rossi has a statewide position, her chances of facing a semi-decent opponent are slim.

Senator Bingaman (D-NM), seems safe, but the state is trending Republican plus the two GOP Representatives (most likely to run) seem popular.

Senator Nelson (D-FL), it all depends on what mood Jeb Bush is on GOP primary filing day.

Senator Nelson (D-NE), although Gov. Johanns is now in the cabinet, I still do not believe that singles him out as a contender. Many cabinet members run for office while serving, if not Nelson will still face Rep. Osbourne.

Senator Dayton (D-MN), the guy is just an embarrasment to this country. Tongue

Senator Stabenow (D-MI), she seems safe but she barely got by last time.

Senator Clinton (D-NY), same as Florida, it all depends on what mood Giuliani is in on GOP primary filing day.
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« Reply #9 on: December 06, 2004, 09:37:01 pm »
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Would Gephardt challenge Talent, or is he offically out of politics?
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« Reply #10 on: December 06, 2004, 09:46:46 pm »
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Clinton could beat Guiliani.  I would vote for Guiliani for President, but  not for the Senate.  Same goes for most of the state.
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« Reply #11 on: December 06, 2004, 09:47:15 pm »
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I'm not at all afraid of Rep. Kennedy. In fact, I'd consider him the weakest candidate out of Minnesota's 4 Republican Congressman. He's just a pure party hack, there's nothing about him that makes him especially strong.

The GOP can hate Dayton all they want, but he has decent approval ratings, and like it or not Minnesota is a Dem-leaning state. I have little doubt he'll win.
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« Reply #12 on: December 06, 2004, 09:48:45 pm »
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I'm not at all afraid of Rep. Kennedy. In fact, I'd consider him the weakest candidate out of Minnesota's 4 Republican Congressman. He's just a pure party hack, there's nothing about him that makes him especially strong.

The GOP can hate Dayton all they want, but he has decent approval ratings, and like it or not Minnesota is a Dem-leaning state. I have little doubt he'll win.

Coleman was a party hack. He did well, albiet he had some help.
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« Reply #13 on: December 06, 2004, 10:05:01 pm »
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Had it not have been for the media whining about that memorial he would've lost. And he would've lost had Wellstone lived.

And while he was a party hack, he didn't run as one, and he didn't have a voting record to prove it either. Everyone thought he was a moderate just because he was a former Democrat and he said he would oppose ANWR drilling (which he now flip-flopped on, and then had the gall to call Kerry a flip-flopper. That guy is human garbage)
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« Reply #14 on: December 06, 2004, 10:39:02 pm »
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I still think Rep. Osbourne will run for governor, but were he to run for Senate, there's not way Ben Nelson could ever win.

Still, I would expect Sen. Nelson to practically almost be a Republican the next two years, just to be safe.

Since it doesn't appear that Johanns will run, Osborne is the only candidate that would be favored against Nelson.

I don't expect Osborne to run, since in 2000, he was approached about running for Senate and said he didn't want to commit to a 6-year term.

There is a good chance Lincoln Chafee will face a primary challenge.† If he can survive that, he will stand a decent chance of being re-elected.† If not the Dems have the advantage.

If a conservative Republican wins a primary in R.I., this seat will almost certainly go Dem.

Democrat wishful thinking about TN and MS will only turn into more than that if Trent Lott retires and if Bill Frist actually does leave.† Even if they do, the states both will still lean Republican, MS more than TN.

Democrats have a better chance defeating Lott than winning an open seat in Miss.
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« Reply #15 on: December 07, 2004, 03:25:39 am »
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Democrat wishful thinking about TN and MS will only turn into more than that if Trent Lott retires and if Bill Frist actually does leave.† Even if they do, the states both will still lean Republican, MS more than TN.


Frist is going and Lott is likley to go either way both races will be competative, MS only if Mike Moore runs however.     
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« Reply #16 on: December 07, 2004, 11:46:02 am »
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Since Chafee could easily get reelected as a Democrat, I think he's not going to risk his seat. If it appears he's facing a strong candidate and can lose, he'll switch. If he faces a potential primary challenge that could beat him, he'll switch. I'd actually rather have him as a Democrat than either of the two Democrat congressmen (Kennedy is a stupid brat and Langevin is OK on most issues but pro-life and anti-stem cell research and all that)
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« Reply #17 on: December 08, 2004, 10:19:00 pm »
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Nelson in FL looks extremely vulnerable.  Here are Quinnipiac's latest numbers:

    Bill Nelson will be up for reelection in 2006. Would you like to see Bill Nelson reelected senator, or would you rather see someone else elected senator?

    Reelect Nelson 36
    Someone else 40
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« Reply #18 on: December 08, 2004, 10:36:02 pm »
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Lott will be reelected if he runs again.  Period.

Mike Moore could perhaps beat another Republican, Pickering I'd guess, but I wouldn't bet on it.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #19 on: December 09, 2004, 12:02:45 am »
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1.  Chafee is not an idiot.  Why would he switch parties to a party without any power and lose his influence in things, since I don't see the Republicans losing control of the Senate in 2006?  How many times have you heard from Jim Jeffords since 2002?

Given that, the most likely outcome is for the White House offers him a deal to protect his seat from conservative challengers in order for key votes on certain bills (a la Specter).

Whether this happens or not remains to be seen.

2.  I would take zero stock in polls that come out nearly two years before the election.  This goes with the NY Governor's and Senate race, as well as this Florida Senate one.
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« Reply #20 on: December 09, 2004, 04:07:34 pm »
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1.† Chafee is not an idiot.† Why would he switch parties to a party without any power and lose his influence in things, since I don't see the Republicans losing control of the Senate in 2006?† How many times have you heard from Jim Jeffords since 2002?

Given that, the most likely outcome is for the White House offers him a deal to protect his seat from conservative challengers in order for key votes on certain bills (a la Specter).

Even so, he could get hammered on those "key votes." RI is not exactly PA... and the liberal Hoeffel pulled out a respectable 41%, which was higher than he'd been polling all year. Specter on the other hand didn't get higher than he was polling. The Democrats would be crazy not to at least pressure Chafee to switch by targeting RI. If they can't put pressure on Chafee in the most liberal state in the union, that would say something.
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« Reply #21 on: December 09, 2004, 04:49:46 pm »
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MI is only competitive if AG Mike Cox or Rep. and former SOS Candice Miller runs, and even then Stabenow would have the advantage.
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« Reply #22 on: December 11, 2004, 12:02:25 am »
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PA

Hoffel managed 41% against a moderate candidate.  If he runs again in 06, he will do better than that against the super-arch Conservative Santorum who has presided in the Senate much more Conservative than he ran in 2000..  hoffel or even any Dem that runs could win based on the moderate voters in the state (ie take the voters that voted for Specter & Kerry).  Hoffel or whoever runs in 06, will also do much better among Dems than hoffel did this year.  because of his moderate views Specter did pretty well for a Republican among Democrats no way Santorum comes close to that feat
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« Reply #23 on: December 11, 2004, 12:09:05 am »
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PA

Hoffel managed 41% against a moderate candidate.† If he runs again in 06, he will do better than that against the super-arch Conservative Santorum who has presided in the Senate much more Conservative than he ran in 2000..† hoffel or even any Dem that runs could win based on the moderate voters in the state (ie take the voters that voted for Specter & Kerry).† Hoffel or whoever runs in 06, will also do much better among Dems than hoffel did this year.† because of his moderate views Specter did pretty well for a Republican among Democrats no way Santorum comes close to that feat

Super arch conservative. You guys are classic. If Hoeffel runs, Santorum will win. Now will Hoeffel get more than 42% of the vote, yes, of course. However, I don't think Hoeffel will be the nominee anyway. What Dems have to realize is that Santorum is popular among conservative Democrats (a large group of voters in PA especially out west).

Now whoever the Dem is might be able to pull away moderate Republican votes but other than that, not much else. I like how Dems (especially out of state Dems) make it sound so easy. "Oh yeah just take the Kerry voters and Santorum will lose." It doesn't work like that here. Hoeffel can't win. Hafer (the likely nominee) can't win. The only candidate that could beat Santorum (Bob Casey, Jr.) has ruled out a run. PA will stay Republican.
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« Reply #24 on: December 11, 2004, 12:24:14 am »
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PA

Hoffel managed 41% against a moderate candidate.† If he runs again in 06, he will do better than that against the super-arch Conservative Santorum who has presided in the Senate much more Conservative than he ran in 2000..† hoffel or even any Dem that runs could win based on the moderate voters in the state (ie take the voters that voted for Specter & Kerry).† Hoffel or whoever runs in 06, will also do much better among Dems than hoffel did this year.† because of his moderate views Specter did pretty well for a Republican among Democrats no way Santorum comes close to that feat

Super arch conservative. You guys are classic. If Hoeffel runs, Santorum will win. Now will Hoeffel get more than 42% of the vote, yes, of course. However, I don't think Hoeffel will be the nominee anyway. What Dems have to realize is that Santorum is popular among conservative Democrats (a large group of voters in PA especially out west).

Now whoever the Dem is might be able to pull away moderate Republican votes but other than that, not much else. I like how Dems (especially out of state Dems) make it sound so easy. "Oh yeah just take the Kerry voters and Santorum will lose." It doesn't work like that here. Hoeffel can't win. Hafer (the likely nominee) can't win. The only candidate that could beat Santorum (Bob Casey, Jr.) has ruled out a run. PA will stay Republican.

Santorum is a super-arch Conservative.  My point about the split ticket Specter-Kerry voters is that the vast majority of those are either moderates tp moderate Dems, people who more than likley will vote for someone like Hoffel or any other Democrat over Santorum.  Yes I am an out-of stater, but Santorum is very conservative and cerainly more conservative than the platform he ran under in 2000.  I just have a hard time believing that the moderate voters in the state are going to vote for someone who is an extremist candidate like Santorum is.  Santorum did get some of that moderate vote in 2000, but as I said he is certainly more Conservative than the platform he ran under & IMHO will have a hard time keeping the moderate vote he had in 2000.  Democrats who were ok with Specter aren't going to vote for Santorum either.
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