2006 Senate Seats
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MHS2002
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« Reply #75 on: December 14, 2004, 11:31:17 AM »

Who could possibly challenge Conrad in 2006? I lived there 1998-2002 and the only person who had a chance of beating him then was former governor Ed Schafer. Unless he runs or unless current governor John Hoeven decides to run, seems like Conrad should have an easy time of it.

First, if you go back you will see that I specifically mentioned Hoeven as a likely candidate.

Second, are you denying that Conrad's ability to provide the pork in the past was a major factor in his reelection?

Third, are you assserting that the average voter in North Dakota agrees with Conrad's votes?

Fourth, could it be that the majority of the voters never really knew how Conrad was voting?

Fifth, has Conrad has a series of hapless Republican opponents in the past because he could deliver the pork?

First, didn't see that part about Hoeven.

I really don't think the average voter in North Dakota cares what Conrad's posititons are. As long Conrad continues to bring home the yearly farm pork, he could vote like Hilary Clinton and it wouldn't really matter. I'm not going to disagree with your beliefs that North Dakotans don't know (or care) what Conrad's votes are, because more often than not that's the case.

The only way Conrad could lose his seat is either he can't bring home the pork or someone like Hoeven can challenge Conrad on the issues while promising to bring home the bacon. For Conrad to lose his seat it will take something along the lines of Thune-Daschle, as SamSpade mentioned. I am not trying to disagree with most of what you say, I'm just saying it's going to be a tough task for anyone to knock Conrad out come '06. If the status quo holds (in terms of pork, etc) then Conrad is probabky going to win.

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phk
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« Reply #76 on: December 14, 2004, 03:05:47 PM »
« Edited: December 14, 2004, 03:07:30 PM by phknrocket1k »

Carl should go help Conrads challenger win a county at the very least.
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Dave from Michigan
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« Reply #77 on: December 14, 2004, 03:14:53 PM »

the republicans should go after Stabenow too.
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #78 on: December 14, 2004, 03:21:59 PM »

I would point out that if Dean does become chairman of the DNC, the Democrats are going to lose another handful of seats (maybe as many as 5) in '06.  If the status quo is maintained and the national Democrats don't cmapign for the southern Senate candidates, or in Michigan, then the Dems might gain some seats.
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phk
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« Reply #79 on: December 14, 2004, 03:29:50 PM »

Why not let the South secede?
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Dave from Michigan
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« Reply #80 on: December 14, 2004, 03:33:27 PM »

I have a feeling Stabenow will win, because no decent republican will run against her.  There are several good candidates that could beat here, but don't want to give up there safe seats.  I think Candice Miller would be the best choice.  She was secretary of state for 8 years, and now is a congresswoman from Macomb county.  But it's unlikely she will give up her safe seat.  I think most of them are waiting and hoping Carl Levin decides not to run again in 2008.
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phk
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« Reply #81 on: December 14, 2004, 03:49:33 PM »

Why did Spencer Abraham go down in 2006, in the first place?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #82 on: December 14, 2004, 04:30:31 PM »

A lot of races will depend on national trends... oh... and retirements... here's an early guess:

ME: Safe GOP, unless Snowe runs for Governer
VT: Safe Ind.
MA: Yaaawn... Safe Dem
RI: If Chafee is the victim of a primary upset it's a dead cert Dem gain. If not, Leans GOP
CT: Yaaawn... Safe Dem
NY: If Rudy runs it's a tossup. Otherwise safe-to-lean Hillary Party (bah, humbug...)
NJ: Depends how the Gubernatorial mess goes, yadda, yadda, yadda.
DE: Yaaawn... Safe Dem
PA: Tossup. The amount of money that'll get spent here is frightening...
MD: Yaaawn... Safe Dem
WV: Yaaawn... Safe Dem, unless Byrd leaves the Senate... in which case it depends on the candidates (though unless the WVDems  up (which has been known) it should be a fairly easy hold)
VA: Yaaawn... Safe GOP... unless Warner runs.
FL: Tossup. See PA. Senator Bush?
MS: I'd be very suprised if Lott ran and lost (I can dream though) but Mike Moore would make it competative. No idea what'll happen if Lott retires.
TN: I *think* Frist has decided to leave the Senate. Tossup pending candidate announcements.
OH: Yaaawn... Safe GOP
IN: Yaaawn... Safe GOP
MI: With a strong GOP candidate would be a tossup. Probably Leans Dem though.
WI: Yaaawn... Safe Dem
MN: The GOP will try, but I'd be suprised if Dayton lost
MO: Will probably go with the national trend
TX: Yaaawn... Safe GOP
NM: Yaaawn... Safe Dem
NB: Leans Dem... for now at least
ND: Unless the GOP can get themselves a star candidate (which I doubt) it's another yaaawn...
MT: Depends what the New Gov does. For now it's Leans GOP.
WY: Yaaawn... Safe GOP
UT: Yaaawn... Safe GOP
AZ: Yaaawn... Safe GOP
NV: Yaaawn... Safe GOP
CA: Yaaawn... Safe Dem
WA: Has the Gubernatorial saga ended yet? If Rossi loses the Senate race is a tossup
HI: Yaaawn... Safe Dem

In addition to that, it's possible that Bunning is "retired" soon. If that happens the race would depend on candidates (although I'd hope Fletcher would appoint himself... if only to see him get slaughtered)
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Ben.
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« Reply #83 on: December 14, 2004, 04:39:45 PM »


In addition to that, it's possible that Bunning is "retired" soon. If that happens the race would depend on candidates (although I'd hope Fletcher would appoint himself... if only to see him get slaughtered)


Aparently Bunning has already filled in paperwork to run in 2010! He'll be gone by then i would imagine, Kentuckys loss i guess Smiley 
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Jake
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« Reply #84 on: December 14, 2004, 08:40:39 PM »

Why did Spencer Abraham go down in 2006, in the first place?

Are you a physic?
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The Dowager Mod
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« Reply #85 on: December 14, 2004, 08:54:24 PM »

Don't bet on Wisconsin being safe dem.
Kohl still hasn't announced and tommy thompson is around.
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phk
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« Reply #86 on: December 14, 2004, 10:48:38 PM »

whose tommy thompson?
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #87 on: December 14, 2004, 11:16:02 PM »


Former Governor of Wisconsin and outgoing Secretary of Health and Human Services.
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TeePee4Prez
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« Reply #88 on: December 15, 2004, 03:16:08 PM »
« Edited: December 15, 2004, 03:18:03 PM by BacardiLimon »

Yep, he's running! WOO HOO!!!


EDITORIAL for December 16, 2004

Oh won’t you stay?

When he held his "final news conference" last week as the congressman for most of Northeast Philly, Joe Hoeffel proved that he is calling it quits way too early.

Mr. Hoeffel is a genuinely nice, pleasant, intelligent man with a good deal of potential to do a good deal more for Northeast Philadelphia, Montgomery County and the entire nation. His imminent successor in the U.S. House of Representatives, Allyson Schwartz, hopefully will do a fantastic job doing the people’s business, but Mr. Hoeffel, at just 54 years old, is too young to abandon his constituents. Mr. Hoeffel squandered the opportunity to go great things on an ill-conceived bid to unseat a Pennsylvania legend, Sen. Arlen Specter, last month.

Mr. Hoeffel likely would have made mincemeat out of Mr. Specter’s foe in the Republican primary, the far-right Pat Toomey, but Mr. Specter squeaked out a primary win and crushed Mr. Hoeffel in the Nov. 2 general election.

Mr. Hoeffel should have stayed put in the House, put in a few more terms as an outspoken advocate for The People, and then run for the Senate. Here’s hoping he will spend the next two years making tons of money as a lawyer in the private sector and then come back refreshed and ready to serve the public in 2007 — as Sen. Rick Santorum’s successor.



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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #89 on: December 15, 2004, 03:26:53 PM »

Yep, he's running! WOO HOO!!!


EDITORIAL for December 16, 2004

Oh won’t you stay?

When he held his "final news conference" last week as the congressman for most of Northeast Philly, Joe Hoeffel proved that he is calling it quits way too early.

Mr. Hoeffel is a genuinely nice, pleasant, intelligent man with a good deal of potential to do a good deal more for Northeast Philadelphia, Montgomery County and the entire nation. His imminent successor in the U.S. House of Representatives, Allyson Schwartz, hopefully will do a fantastic job doing the people’s business, but Mr. Hoeffel, at just 54 years old, is too young to abandon his constituents. Mr. Hoeffel squandered the opportunity to go great things on an ill-conceived bid to unseat a Pennsylvania legend, Sen. Arlen Specter, last month.

Mr. Hoeffel likely would have made mincemeat out of Mr. Specter’s foe in the Republican primary, the far-right Pat Toomey, but Mr. Specter squeaked out a primary win and crushed Mr. Hoeffel in the Nov. 2 general election.

Mr. Hoeffel should have stayed put in the House, put in a few more terms as an outspoken advocate for The People, and then run for the Senate. Here’s hoping he will spend the next two years making tons of money as a lawyer in the private sector and then come back refreshed and ready to serve the public in 2007 — as Sen. Rick Santorum’s successor.





Ha! Hoeffel would have made micemeat out of Toomey....suuuure. You have to love these editorials. So what paper was it, BL? (Yeah due to the new name change, that's what I'll be calling you.) The Inquirer...The Daily News...? To them, anyone to the right of Chaka Fattah is far right.

Then they say he's an advocate for the people. Wow...a never ending comedy. This "advocate" had one bill passed while serving in the U.S. House and it was the renaming of a post office.

And where exactly in that editorial did it say he was running again? I can't find it.
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TeePee4Prez
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« Reply #90 on: December 15, 2004, 03:36:26 PM »

Didn't show the full one I read in print.  If you read the one in print, it strongly hints at a Hoeffel run.  It seems the online version is edited.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #91 on: December 15, 2004, 03:43:43 PM »

Didn't show the full one I read in print.  If you read the one in print, it strongly hints at a Hoeffel run.  It seems the online version is edited.

Hoeffel has always hinted at a run. Everyone knows that. I thought this article was saying that it was official.
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CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #92 on: December 15, 2004, 05:03:54 PM »

Who could possibly challenge Conrad in 2006? I lived there 1998-2002 and the only person who had a chance of beating him then was former governor Ed Schafer. Unless he runs or unless current governor John Hoeven decides to run, seems like Conrad should have an easy time of it.

First, if you go back you will see that I specifically mentioned Hoeven as a likely candidate.

Second, are you denying that Conrad's ability to provide the pork in the past was a major factor in his reelection?

Third, are you assserting that the average voter in North Dakota agrees with Conrad's votes?

Fourth, could it be that the majority of the voters never really knew how Conrad was voting?

Fifth, has Conrad has a series of hapless Republican opponents in the past because he could deliver the pork?

First, didn't see that part about Hoeven.

I really don't think the average voter in North Dakota cares what Conrad's posititons are. As long Conrad continues to bring home the yearly farm pork, he could vote like Hilary Clinton and it wouldn't really matter. I'm not going to disagree with your beliefs that North Dakotans don't know (or care) what Conrad's votes are, because more often than not that's the case.

The only way Conrad could lose his seat is either he can't bring home the pork or someone like Hoeven can challenge Conrad on the issues while promising to bring home the bacon. For Conrad to lose his seat it will take something along the lines of Thune-Daschle, as SamSpade mentioned. I am not trying to disagree with most of what you say, I'm just saying it's going to be a tough task for anyone to knock Conrad out come '06. If the status quo holds (in terms of pork, etc) then Conrad is probabky going to win.



First, my key point was that Conrad is no longer in a position to bring home the pork!  Democrats control nothing nationally, except some circuits of the federal judiciary.

Second, in the interest of increasing the Republican edge in the Senate (to prevent filibusters), Rowe will recruit candidates in selected races (North Dakota, New Mexico and Florida) such as Hoeven.

Third, while Conrad WAS able to hide his voting record for years from the average citizen of North Dakota, with the new media, it will be a lot harder.

If you have some friends in North Dakota, ask they if they can tell you how Conrad has been voting on matters in Congress.  Odds are they will be unable to cite a single vote (that's the way Conrad likes it).
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phk
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« Reply #93 on: December 15, 2004, 06:38:15 PM »

I'll bet $5, Conrad will win.
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« Reply #94 on: December 15, 2004, 10:58:59 PM »
« Edited: December 15, 2004, 11:01:55 PM by BRTD »

Yep, he's running! WOO HOO!!!


EDITORIAL for December 16, 2004

Oh won’t you stay?

When he held his "final news conference" last week as the congressman for most of Northeast Philly, Joe Hoeffel proved that he is calling it quits way too early.

Mr. Hoeffel is a genuinely nice, pleasant, intelligent man with a good deal of potential to do a good deal more for Northeast Philadelphia, Montgomery County and the entire nation. His imminent successor in the U.S. House of Representatives, Allyson Schwartz, hopefully will do a fantastic job doing the people’s business, but Mr. Hoeffel, at just 54 years old, is too young to abandon his constituents. Mr. Hoeffel squandered the opportunity to go great things on an ill-conceived bid to unseat a Pennsylvania legend, Sen. Arlen Specter, last month.

Mr. Hoeffel likely would have made mincemeat out of Mr. Specter’s foe in the Republican primary, the far-right Pat Toomey, but Mr. Specter squeaked out a primary win and crushed Mr. Hoeffel in the Nov. 2 general election.

Mr. Hoeffel should have stayed put in the House, put in a few more terms as an outspoken advocate for The People, and then run for the Senate. Here’s hoping he will spend the next two years making tons of money as a lawyer in the private sector and then come back refreshed and ready to serve the public in 2007 — as Sen. Rick Santorum’s successor.





Ha! Hoeffel would have made micemeat out of Toomey....suuuure. You have to love these editorials. So what paper was it, BL? (Yeah due to the new name change, that's what I'll be calling you.) The Inquirer...The Daily News...? To them, anyone to the right of Chaka Fattah is far right.

Then they say he's an advocate for the people. Wow...a never ending comedy. This "advocate" had one bill passed while serving in the U.S. House and it was the renaming of a post office.

And where exactly in that editorial did it say he was running again? I can't find it.

what makes you so sure Toomey would've won when Kerry won Pennsylvania? Why would anyone vote for Kerry and then Toomey? Why was Toomey such a great candidate?
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phk
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« Reply #95 on: December 15, 2004, 11:21:12 PM »

Energized the religous.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #96 on: December 16, 2004, 04:23:49 PM »

Yep, he's running! WOO HOO!!!


EDITORIAL for December 16, 2004

Oh won’t you stay?

When he held his "final news conference" last week as the congressman for most of Northeast Philly, Joe Hoeffel proved that he is calling it quits way too early.

Mr. Hoeffel is a genuinely nice, pleasant, intelligent man with a good deal of potential to do a good deal more for Northeast Philadelphia, Montgomery County and the entire nation. His imminent successor in the U.S. House of Representatives, Allyson Schwartz, hopefully will do a fantastic job doing the people’s business, but Mr. Hoeffel, at just 54 years old, is too young to abandon his constituents. Mr. Hoeffel squandered the opportunity to go great things on an ill-conceived bid to unseat a Pennsylvania legend, Sen. Arlen Specter, last month.

Mr. Hoeffel likely would have made mincemeat out of Mr. Specter’s foe in the Republican primary, the far-right Pat Toomey, but Mr. Specter squeaked out a primary win and crushed Mr. Hoeffel in the Nov. 2 general election.

Mr. Hoeffel should have stayed put in the House, put in a few more terms as an outspoken advocate for The People, and then run for the Senate. Here’s hoping he will spend the next two years making tons of money as a lawyer in the private sector and then come back refreshed and ready to serve the public in 2007 — as Sen. Rick Santorum’s successor.





Ha! Hoeffel would have made micemeat out of Toomey....suuuure. You have to love these editorials. So what paper was it, BL? (Yeah due to the new name change, that's what I'll be calling you.) The Inquirer...The Daily News...? To them, anyone to the right of Chaka Fattah is far right.

Then they say he's an advocate for the people. Wow...a never ending comedy. This "advocate" had one bill passed while serving in the U.S. House and it was the renaming of a post office.

And where exactly in that editorial did it say he was running again? I can't find it.

what makes you so sure Toomey would've won when Kerry won Pennsylvania? Why would anyone vote for Kerry and then Toomey? Why was Toomey such a great candidate?

Have I not addressed this point earlier? Why did people vote for Gore and Santorum? Democrats are partisan in this state when it comes to the Presidential race but when it comes to Congress/Senate/local offices, many don't mind voting Republican.

Whether you like it or not, this is a conservative state. Toomey's beliefs are more in line with what this state's voters believe than Hoeffel.
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Smash255
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« Reply #97 on: December 16, 2004, 11:52:23 PM »

Yep, he's running! WOO HOO!!!


EDITORIAL for December 16, 2004

Oh won’t you stay?

When he held his "final news conference" last week as the congressman for most of Northeast Philly, Joe Hoeffel proved that he is calling it quits way too early.

Mr. Hoeffel is a genuinely nice, pleasant, intelligent man with a good deal of potential to do a good deal more for Northeast Philadelphia, Montgomery County and the entire nation. His imminent successor in the U.S. House of Representatives, Allyson Schwartz, hopefully will do a fantastic job doing the people’s business, but Mr. Hoeffel, at just 54 years old, is too young to abandon his constituents. Mr. Hoeffel squandered the opportunity to go great things on an ill-conceived bid to unseat a Pennsylvania legend, Sen. Arlen Specter, last month.

Mr. Hoeffel likely would have made mincemeat out of Mr. Specter’s foe in the Republican primary, the far-right Pat Toomey, but Mr. Specter squeaked out a primary win and crushed Mr. Hoeffel in the Nov. 2 general election.

Mr. Hoeffel should have stayed put in the House, put in a few more terms as an outspoken advocate for The People, and then run for the Senate. Here’s hoping he will spend the next two years making tons of money as a lawyer in the private sector and then come back refreshed and ready to serve the public in 2007 — as Sen. Rick Santorum’s successor.





Ha! Hoeffel would have made micemeat out of Toomey....suuuure. You have to love these editorials. So what paper was it, BL? (Yeah due to the new name change, that's what I'll be calling you.) The Inquirer...The Daily News...? To them, anyone to the right of Chaka Fattah is far right.

Then they say he's an advocate for the people. Wow...a never ending comedy. This "advocate" had one bill passed while serving in the U.S. House and it was the renaming of a post office.

And where exactly in that editorial did it say he was running again? I can't find it.

what makes you so sure Toomey would've won when Kerry won Pennsylvania? Why would anyone vote for Kerry and then Toomey? Why was Toomey such a great candidate?

Have I not addressed this point earlier? Why did people vote for Gore and Santorum? Democrats are partisan in this state when it comes to the Presidential race but when it comes to Congress/Senate/local offices, many don't mind voting Republican.

Whether you like it or not, this is a conservative state. Toomey's beliefs are more in line with what this state's voters believe than Hoeffel.

Santorum in 2000/ and the Santorum campaign of 2000 was MUCH LESS Conservative than the Santorum of 2004, and Toomey.  Santorum of 2000 was able to get mixed ticket votes, Santorum of 2004, and Toomey would not be able to get those mixed ticket votes. 

What do you think is the reason bush was campaigning for Specter???  He liked the guy??  Liked his politics??  NO.  It was because with Toomey on the ticket it would    1.  bring out more liberals which would hurt Bush's chances and 2. Their would be a much better chance of the GOP losing a senate seat with Toomey on the ticket as opposed to the more moderate Specter.
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TeePee4Prez
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« Reply #98 on: December 17, 2004, 01:27:22 PM »

Good points Smash.  It seems like PA Conservatives are the most whiny and it will kill them in the long run.  Had it not been for Bush/Santorum rescuing Specter, Toomey would have won and Hoeffel would have in turn made mincemeat out of him as the Northeast Times eluded to.  The elft would have turned out even greater for the Dem ticket and I do not see many Kerry-Toomey crossovers except in maybe the Lehigh Valley, but it wouldn't be enough to swing the state.  Had Toomey won, the AFL-CIO would have definitely backed Hoeffel and the DSCC would have infused massive amounts of $$$$.     
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« Reply #99 on: December 17, 2004, 01:30:27 PM »

you know, when you consider the AFL-CIO endorsed Specter and the DSCC did not give Hoeffel that much money, it is a major accomplishment that he topped 40%. Far better than Specter's last opponent. Therefore he's clearly a much better candidate than Phil will admit.
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