1. Chafee is not an idiot. Why would he switch parties to a party without any power and lose his influence in things, since I don't see the Republicans losing control of the Senate in 2006? How many times have you heard from Jim Jeffords since 2002?
Given that, the most likely outcome is for the White House offers him a deal to protect his seat from conservative challengers in order for key votes on certain bills (a la Specter).
Even so, he could get hammered on those "key votes." RI is not exactly PA... and the liberal Hoeffel pulled out a respectable 41%, which was higher than he'd been polling all year. Specter on the other hand didn't get higher than he was polling. The Democrats would be crazy not to at least pressure Chafee to switch by targeting RI. If they can't put pressure on Chafee in the most liberal state in the union, that would say something.
