I still think Rep. Osbourne will run for governor, but were he to run for Senate, there's not way Ben Nelson could ever win.
Still, I would expect Sen. Nelson to practically almost be a Republican the next two years, just to be safe.
Since it doesn't appear that Johanns will run, Osborne is the only candidate that would be favored against Nelson.
I don't expect Osborne to run, since in 2000, he was approached about running for Senate and said he didn't want to commit to a 6-year term.
There is a good chance Lincoln Chafee will face a primary challenge. If he can survive that, he will stand a decent chance of being re-elected. If not the Dems have the advantage.
If a conservative Republican wins a primary in R.I., this seat will almost certainly go Dem.
Democrat wishful thinking about TN and MS will only turn into more than that if Trent Lott retires and if Bill Frist actually does leave. Even if they do, the states both will still lean Republican, MS more than TN.
Democrats have a better chance defeating Lott than winning an open seat in Miss.
