2006 Senate Seats

[Smash255]

PA

Hoffel managed 41% against a moderate candidate.  If he runs again in 06, he will do better than that against the super-arch Conservative Santorum who has presided in the Senate much more Conservative than he ran in 2000..  hoffel or even any Dem that runs could win based on the moderate voters in the state (ie take the voters that voted for Specter & Kerry).  Hoffel or whoever runs in 06, will also do much better among Dems than hoffel did this year.  because of his moderate views Specter did pretty well for a Republican among Democrats no way Santorum comes close to that feat

[Smash255]

PA

Hoffel managed 41% against a moderate candidate.  If he runs again in 06, he will do better than that against the super-arch Conservative Santorum who has presided in the Senate much more Conservative than he ran in 2000..  hoffel or even any Dem that runs could win based on the moderate voters in the state (ie take the voters that voted for Specter & Kerry).  Hoffel or whoever runs in 06, will also do much better among Dems than hoffel did this year.  because of his moderate views Specter did pretty well for a Republican among Democrats no way Santorum comes close to that feat

Super arch conservative. You guys are classic. If Hoeffel runs, Santorum will win. Now will Hoeffel get more than 42% of the vote, yes, of course. However, I don't think Hoeffel will be the nominee anyway. What Dems have to realize is that Santorum is popular among conservative Democrats (a large group of voters in PA especially out west).

Now whoever the Dem is might be able to pull away moderate Republican votes but other than that, not much else. I like how Dems (especially out of state Dems) make it sound so easy. "Oh yeah just take the Kerry voters and Santorum will lose." It doesn't work like that here. Hoeffel can't win. Hafer (the likely nominee) can't win. The only candidate that could beat Santorum (Bob Casey, Jr.) has ruled out a run. PA will stay Republican.

Santorum is a super-arch Conservative.  My point about the split ticket Specter-Kerry voters is that the vast majority of those are either moderates tp moderate Dems, people who more than likley will vote for someone like Hoffel or any other Democrat over Santorum.  Yes I am an out-of stater, but Santorum is very conservative and cerainly more conservative than the platform he ran under in 2000.  I just have a hard time believing that the moderate voters in the state are going to vote for someone who is an extremist candidate like Santorum is.  Santorum did get some of that moderate vote in 2000, but as I said he is certainly more Conservative than the platform he ran under & IMHO will have a hard time keeping the moderate vote he had in 2000.  Democrats who were ok with Specter aren't going to vote for Santorum either.

[Smash255]

PA

Hoffel managed 41% against a moderate candidate.  If he runs again in 06, he will do better than that against the super-arch Conservative Santorum who has presided in the Senate much more Conservative than he ran in 2000..  hoffel or even any Dem that runs could win based on the moderate voters in the state (ie take the voters that voted for Specter & Kerry).  Hoffel or whoever runs in 06, will also do much better among Dems than hoffel did this year.  because of his moderate views Specter did pretty well for a Republican among Democrats no way Santorum comes close to that feat

Super arch conservative. You guys are classic. If Hoeffel runs, Santorum will win. Now will Hoeffel get more than 42% of the vote, yes, of course. However, I don't think Hoeffel will be the nominee anyway. What Dems have to realize is that Santorum is popular among conservative Democrats (a large group of voters in PA especially out west).

Now whoever the Dem is might be able to pull away moderate Republican votes but other than that, not much else. I like how Dems (especially out of state Dems) make it sound so easy. "Oh yeah just take the Kerry voters and Santorum will lose." It doesn't work like that here. Hoeffel can't win. Hafer (the likely nominee) can't win. The only candidate that could beat Santorum (Bob Casey, Jr.) has ruled out a run. PA will stay Republican.

Santorum is a super-arch Conservative.  My point about the split ticket Specter-Kerry voters is that the vast majority of those are either moderates tp moderate Dems, people who more than likley will vote for someone like Hoffel or any other Democrat over Santorum.  Yes I am an out-of stater, but Santorum is very conservative and cerainly more conservative than the platform he ran under in 2000.  I just have a hard time believing that the moderate voters in the state are going to vote for someone who is an extremist candidate like Santorum is.  Santorum did get some of that moderate vote in 2000, but as I said he is certainly more Conservative than the platform he ran under & IMHO will have a hard time keeping the moderate vote he had in 2000.  Democrats who were ok with Specter aren't going to vote for Santorum either.

Oh he is? Why doesn't this super-arch conservative have a super-arch conservative 99 or 100 rating from the ACU? Santorum is not an extremist.

As I stated earlier, conservative Dems and conservative Republicans will send Santorum back to the Senate. Sure the moderate vote will go more towards the Democratic nominee this time around but it won't be enough.

Oh, yeah those "Democrats that were ok with Specter" are liberal Dems who didn't vote for Santorum in 2000 and never planned on voting for him in 2006. They don't make up enough of the voting population in the state to swing the election.

He was what a 95??  thats pretty damn Conservative.  I have a tough time believeing even Conservative Dems are going to vote for someone as out there as this guy.  Keep in mind he is far more Conservative than how he ran in 2000.  And any cross-over he got from Conservative Dems and moderate in general will probably be lost because of how far right he has become

[Smash255]

PA

Hoffel managed 41% against a moderate candidate.  If he runs again in 06, he will do better than that against the super-arch Conservative Santorum who has presided in the Senate much more Conservative than he ran in 2000..  hoffel or even any Dem that runs could win based on the moderate voters in the state (ie take the voters that voted for Specter & Kerry).  Hoffel or whoever runs in 06, will also do much better among Dems than hoffel did this year.  because of his moderate views Specter did pretty well for a Republican among Democrats no way Santorum comes close to that feat

Super arch conservative. You guys are classic. If Hoeffel runs, Santorum will win. Now will Hoeffel get more than 42% of the vote, yes, of course. However, I don't think Hoeffel will be the nominee anyway. What Dems have to realize is that Santorum is popular among conservative Democrats (a large group of voters in PA especially out west).

Now whoever the Dem is might be able to pull away moderate Republican votes but other than that, not much else. I like how Dems (especially out of state Dems) make it sound so easy. "Oh yeah just take the Kerry voters and Santorum will lose." It doesn't work like that here. Hoeffel can't win. Hafer (the likely nominee) can't win. The only candidate that could beat Santorum (Bob Casey, Jr.) has ruled out a run. PA will stay Republican.

Santorum is a super-arch Conservative.  My point about the split ticket Specter-Kerry voters is that the vast majority of those are either moderates tp moderate Dems, people who more than likley will vote for someone like Hoffel or any other Democrat over Santorum.  Yes I am an out-of stater, but Santorum is very conservative and cerainly more conservative than the platform he ran under in 2000.  I just have a hard time believing that the moderate voters in the state are going to vote for someone who is an extremist candidate like Santorum is.  Santorum did get some of that moderate vote in 2000, but as I said he is certainly more Conservative than the platform he ran under & IMHO will have a hard time keeping the moderate vote he had in 2000.  Democrats who were ok with Specter aren't going to vote for Santorum either.

Oh he is? Why doesn't this super-arch conservative have a super-arch conservative 99 or 100 rating from the ACU? Santorum is not an extremist.

As I stated earlier, conservative Dems and conservative Republicans will send Santorum back to the Senate. Sure the moderate vote will go more towards the Democratic nominee this time around but it won't be enough.

Oh, yeah those "Democrats that were ok with Specter" are liberal Dems who didn't vote for Santorum in 2000 and never planned on voting for him in 2006. They don't make up enough of the voting population in the state to swing the election.

He was what a 95??  thats pretty damn Conservative. 

Actually he has an 86 rating.

Well actually 87 & he has gotten more Conservative as time has gone on.  He was #95 in 2002 & #90 in 2003, his 2003 # would be higher, but the ACU actually cited with the Dems & against the GOP  in the medicare reform bill (although for different reasons)

[Smash255]

PA

Hoffel managed 41% against a moderate candidate.  If he runs again in 06, he will do better than that against the super-arch Conservative Santorum who has presided in the Senate much more Conservative than he ran in 2000..  hoffel or even any Dem that runs could win based on the moderate voters in the state (ie take the voters that voted for Specter & Kerry).  Hoffel or whoever runs in 06, will also do much better among Dems than hoffel did this year.  because of his moderate views Specter did pretty well for a Republican among Democrats no way Santorum comes close to that feat

Super arch conservative. You guys are classic. If Hoeffel runs, Santorum will win. Now will Hoeffel get more than 42% of the vote, yes, of course. However, I don't think Hoeffel will be the nominee anyway. What Dems have to realize is that Santorum is popular among conservative Democrats (a large group of voters in PA especially out west).

Now whoever the Dem is might be able to pull away moderate Republican votes but other than that, not much else. I like how Dems (especially out of state Dems) make it sound so easy. "Oh yeah just take the Kerry voters and Santorum will lose." It doesn't work like that here. Hoeffel can't win. Hafer (the likely nominee) can't win. The only candidate that could beat Santorum (Bob Casey, Jr.) has ruled out a run. PA will stay Republican.

Santorum is a super-arch Conservative.  My point about the split ticket Specter-Kerry voters is that the vast majority of those are either moderates tp moderate Dems, people who more than likley will vote for someone like Hoffel or any other Democrat over Santorum.  Yes I am an out-of stater, but Santorum is very conservative and cerainly more conservative than the platform he ran under in 2000.  I just have a hard time believing that the moderate voters in the state are going to vote for someone who is an extremist candidate like Santorum is.  Santorum did get some of that moderate vote in 2000, but as I said he is certainly more Conservative than the platform he ran under & IMHO will have a hard time keeping the moderate vote he had in 2000.  Democrats who were ok with Specter aren't going to vote for Santorum either.

Oh he is? Why doesn't this super-arch conservative have a super-arch conservative 99 or 100 rating from the ACU? Santorum is not an extremist.

As I stated earlier, conservative Dems and conservative Republicans will send Santorum back to the Senate. Sure the moderate vote will go more towards the Democratic nominee this time around but it won't be enough.

Oh, yeah those "Democrats that were ok with Specter" are liberal Dems who didn't vote for Santorum in 2000 and never planned on voting for him in 2006. They don't make up enough of the voting population in the state to swing the election.

He was what a 95??  thats pretty damn Conservative. 

Actually he has an 86 rating.

Well actually 87 & he has gotten more Conservative as time has gone on.  He was #95 in 2002 & #90 in 2003, his 2003 # would be higher, but the ACU actually cited with the Dems & against the GOP  in the medicare reform bill (although for different reasons)

His lifetime rating is 87. He's not an extreme right winger.

he has become an extremist.  Santorum is FAR more conservative now than he was earlier in his Congressional career, hell he is even quite a bit more conservative now than he was 4 years ago when he first ran.  Thats the point I'm trying to make, is Santorum has evolved into an extreme right wing guy

[Smash255]

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Extreme - Jim Inhofe, Pat Robertson, Jerry Falwell....

I honestly don't see Santorum as an extremist and neither do the people of Pennsylvania. They approve of his job as Senator.

Welll with some of the thing he has said about gays he can fit in the Falwell & Robertson category

[Smash255]

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Extreme - Jim Inhofe, Pat Robertson, Jerry Falwell....

I honestly don't see Santorum as an extremist and neither do the people of Pennsylvania. They approve of his job as Senator.

Welll with some of the thing he has said about gays he can fit in the Falwell & Robertson category

The gay comment went alittle too far but I don't believe he hates gays as many believe he does.

his gay comments sound very much like comment Jerry Falwell has made on gays, granted he hasn't said gays caused 9/11 like Falwell did, but Santorum has had some very harsh & disturbing words about gays which pretty much mirrors what has been said by Falwell & Robertson. 

Anyway my whole point is the Rick Santorum of 2004 is without a doubt more conservative than the Rick Santorum that ran for Senate in 2000, and that will may very well pose a problem for him in the 2006 election. the support & votes he had from the more liberal republicans, .conservative Dems, and overall moderates in general may not be there in 06. A moderate Democrat can really paint Santorum as being outside of the mainstream, an extremist & basically use some of his comments to prove the point.

[Smash255]

Yep, he's running! WOO HOO!!!


EDITORIAL for December 16, 2004

Oh won’t you stay?

When he held his "final news conference" last week as the congressman for most of Northeast Philly, Joe Hoeffel proved that he is calling it quits way too early.

Mr. Hoeffel is a genuinely nice, pleasant, intelligent man with a good deal of potential to do a good deal more for Northeast Philadelphia, Montgomery County and the entire nation. His imminent successor in the U.S. House of Representatives, Allyson Schwartz, hopefully will do a fantastic job doing the people’s business, but Mr. Hoeffel, at just 54 years old, is too young to abandon his constituents. Mr. Hoeffel squandered the opportunity to go great things on an ill-conceived bid to unseat a Pennsylvania legend, Sen. Arlen Specter, last month.

Mr. Hoeffel likely would have made mincemeat out of Mr. Specter’s foe in the Republican primary, the far-right Pat Toomey, but Mr. Specter squeaked out a primary win and crushed Mr. Hoeffel in the Nov. 2 general election.

Mr. Hoeffel should have stayed put in the House, put in a few more terms as an outspoken advocate for The People, and then run for the Senate. Here’s hoping he will spend the next two years making tons of money as a lawyer in the private sector and then come back refreshed and ready to serve the public in 2007 — as Sen. Rick Santorum’s successor.

Ha! Hoeffel would have made micemeat out of Toomey....suuuure. You have to love these editorials. So what paper was it, BL? (Yeah due to the new name change, that's what I'll be calling you.) The Inquirer...The Daily News...? To them, anyone to the right of Chaka Fattah is far right.

Then they say he's an advocate for the people. Wow...a never ending comedy. This "advocate" had one bill passed while serving in the U.S. House and it was the renaming of a post office.

And where exactly in that editorial did it say he was running again? I can't find it.

what makes you so sure Toomey would've won when Kerry won Pennsylvania? Why would anyone vote for Kerry and then Toomey? Why was Toomey such a great candidate?

Have I not addressed this point earlier? Why did people vote for Gore and Santorum? Democrats are partisan in this state when it comes to the Presidential race but when it comes to Congress/Senate/local offices, many don't mind voting Republican.

Whether you like it or not, this is a conservative state. Toomey's beliefs are more in line with what this state's voters believe than Hoeffel.

Santorum in 2000/ and the Santorum campaign of 2000 was MUCH LESS Conservative than the Santorum of 2004, and Toomey.  Santorum of 2000 was able to get mixed ticket votes, Santorum of 2004, and Toomey would not be able to get those mixed ticket votes. 

What do you think is the reason bush was campaigning for Specter???  He liked the guy??  Liked his politics??  NO.  It was because with Toomey on the ticket it would    1.  bring out more liberals which would hurt Bush's chances and 2. Their would be a much better chance of the GOP losing a senate seat with Toomey on the ticket as opposed to the more moderate Specter.

[Smash255]

Yep, he's running! WOO HOO!!!


EDITORIAL for December 16, 2004

Oh won’t you stay?

When he held his "final news conference" last week as the congressman for most of Northeast Philly, Joe Hoeffel proved that he is calling it quits way too early.

Mr. Hoeffel is a genuinely nice, pleasant, intelligent man with a good deal of potential to do a good deal more for Northeast Philadelphia, Montgomery County and the entire nation. His imminent successor in the U.S. House of Representatives, Allyson Schwartz, hopefully will do a fantastic job doing the people’s business, but Mr. Hoeffel, at just 54 years old, is too young to abandon his constituents. Mr. Hoeffel squandered the opportunity to go great things on an ill-conceived bid to unseat a Pennsylvania legend, Sen. Arlen Specter, last month.

Mr. Hoeffel likely would have made mincemeat out of Mr. Specter’s foe in the Republican primary, the far-right Pat Toomey, but Mr. Specter squeaked out a primary win and crushed Mr. Hoeffel in the Nov. 2 general election.

Mr. Hoeffel should have stayed put in the House, put in a few more terms as an outspoken advocate for The People, and then run for the Senate. Here’s hoping he will spend the next two years making tons of money as a lawyer in the private sector and then come back refreshed and ready to serve the public in 2007 — as Sen. Rick Santorum’s successor.

Ha! Hoeffel would have made micemeat out of Toomey....suuuure. You have to love these editorials. So what paper was it, BL? (Yeah due to the new name change, that's what I'll be calling you.) The Inquirer...The Daily News...? To them, anyone to the right of Chaka Fattah is far right.

Then they say he's an advocate for the people. Wow...a never ending comedy. This "advocate" had one bill passed while serving in the U.S. House and it was the renaming of a post office.

And where exactly in that editorial did it say he was running again? I can't find it.

what makes you so sure Toomey would've won when Kerry won Pennsylvania? Why would anyone vote for Kerry and then Toomey? Why was Toomey such a great candidate?

Have I not addressed this point earlier? Why did people vote for Gore and Santorum? Democrats are partisan in this state when it comes to the Presidential race but when it comes to Congress/Senate/local offices, many don't mind voting Republican.

Whether you like it or not, this is a conservative state. Toomey's beliefs are more in line with what this state's voters believe than Hoeffel.

Santorum in 2000/ and the Santorum campaign of 2000 was MUCH LESS Conservative than the Santorum of 2004, and Toomey.  Santorum of 2000 was able to get mixed ticket votes, Santorum of 2004, and Toomey would not be able to get those mixed ticket votes. 

What do you think is the reason bush was campaigning for Specter???  He liked the guy??  Liked his politics??  NO.  It was because with Toomey on the ticket it would    1.  bring out more liberals which would hurt Bush's chances and 2. Their would be a much better chance of the GOP losing a senate seat with Toomey on the ticket as opposed to the more moderate Specter.

Hey Smash, even if Santorum is more conservative than 2000, why are his approval ratings some of the highest and disapproval ratings lowest? You make it seem like his conservativism will hurt him so why isn't it hurting him. Santorum's approval ratings are always ignored by Dems when they try to make their case about the 2006 race.

As for Bush supporting Specter, yes it was done because Bush thought it would hurt his chances. In reality, I don't think there would be a big difference. Liberals came out to vote against Bush anyway. If Toomey was the nominee, that wouldn't cause more of them to come out.

As for Toomey's chances being worse than Specter's chances, I can agree with that and so would anyone else. However, I still believe that Toomey could have won.

You keep quoting that Santorum has some of the highest approval ratings in the state, but you don't show any proof of that.  Awhile back I saw two different polls, (wish I could find them) one poll had Santorum''s approval in the mid-upper 40's another one had him at 53 I believe.

Point about Toomey, is I just don't see how anyone as Conservative as Toomey would have gotten much in the way of split ticket votes.  Thats basically the main reason why Specter won because of the large number of moderates & Democrats that voted Kerry/Specter, that group is NOT going to vote Kerry/Toomey.  Now some in that group did vote Gore/Santorum as you mentioned earlier, however as I pointed out Santorum in 2000 & especially the campaign he ran in 2000 was MUCH MORE moderate than he is now, and MUCH MORE Moderate than Toomey.  Santorum was able to garner those split ticket voters in 2000, by running a more moderate campaign.  Toomey was running a very Conservative campaign (which is what Santorum will most likley run in 06, well because he simply can't run as a moderate anymore).  The factr Toomey would of ran as a Conservative would have hurt him with the moderate and Democratic split ticket voters that voted for Santorum in 2000 & Specter in this election (& that same group will also hurt Santorum in 06)