2006 Senate Seats

[AuH2O]

Lott would kill Moore.

Warner has no hope, he's not even in the picture for that seat.

TN is not a tossup, either. That's lean GOP unless something weird happens.

[AuH2O]

Everything you said applied this election, and they still won easily. And there is no equivalent of John Thune in ND. There is no reason for the Republicans to target Conrad, and he will win easily.

Of course, you also thought Bush had a great shot at winning Vermont. We all know how accurate that was.

I recall some of your predictions didn't turn out so well either...

On Conrad... he's unlikely to lose or face a particularly close race, but he's not necessarily invincible. The fact it's a midterm only makes it less likely.

[AuH2O]

Failing on some close races is not equivalent to blowing a state by 20 points.

I guess it depends on your definition of 'close.' Coburn's margin wound up being pretty large.

Also note that, as you have continually ignored, early projections that Vermont could be close were based on a much bigger Bush win- before he blew the first debate and made it a semi-race. Turns out he would have lost there no matter what, but it needn't have been by 20.

In any case, I made well over a grand on the election, so I could only have been so wrong, no?

I did correctly call that Bush would impove in MA from 2000. Some New Englanders just didn't cooperate.