2006 Senate Seats

[Keystone Phil]

PA

Hoffel managed 41% against a moderate candidate.  If he runs again in 06, he will do better than that against the super-arch Conservative Santorum who has presided in the Senate much more Conservative than he ran in 2000..  hoffel or even any Dem that runs could win based on the moderate voters in the state (ie take the voters that voted for Specter & Kerry).  Hoffel or whoever runs in 06, will also do much better among Dems than hoffel did this year.  because of his moderate views Specter did pretty well for a Republican among Democrats no way Santorum comes close to that feat

Super arch conservative. You guys are classic. If Hoeffel runs, Santorum will win. Now will Hoeffel get more than 42% of the vote, yes, of course. However, I don't think Hoeffel will be the nominee anyway. What Dems have to realize is that Santorum is popular among conservative Democrats (a large group of voters in PA especially out west).

Now whoever the Dem is might be able to pull away moderate Republican votes but other than that, not much else. I like how Dems (especially out of state Dems) make it sound so easy. "Oh yeah just take the Kerry voters and Santorum will lose." It doesn't work like that here. Hoeffel can't win. Hafer (the likely nominee) can't win. The only candidate that could beat Santorum (Bob Casey, Jr.) has ruled out a run. PA will stay Republican.

[Keystone Phil]

PA

Hoffel managed 41% against a moderate candidate.  If he runs again in 06, he will do better than that against the super-arch Conservative Santorum who has presided in the Senate much more Conservative than he ran in 2000..  hoffel or even any Dem that runs could win based on the moderate voters in the state (ie take the voters that voted for Specter & Kerry).  Hoffel or whoever runs in 06, will also do much better among Dems than hoffel did this year.  because of his moderate views Specter did pretty well for a Republican among Democrats no way Santorum comes close to that feat

Super arch conservative. You guys are classic. If Hoeffel runs, Santorum will win. Now will Hoeffel get more than 42% of the vote, yes, of course. However, I don't think Hoeffel will be the nominee anyway. What Dems have to realize is that Santorum is popular among conservative Democrats (a large group of voters in PA especially out west).

Now whoever the Dem is might be able to pull away moderate Republican votes but other than that, not much else. I like how Dems (especially out of state Dems) make it sound so easy. "Oh yeah just take the Kerry voters and Santorum will lose." It doesn't work like that here. Hoeffel can't win. Hafer (the likely nominee) can't win. The only candidate that could beat Santorum (Bob Casey, Jr.) has ruled out a run. PA will stay Republican.

Santorum is a super-arch Conservative.  My point about the split ticket Specter-Kerry voters is that the vast majority of those are either moderates tp moderate Dems, people who more than likley will vote for someone like Hoffel or any other Democrat over Santorum.  Yes I am an out-of stater, but Santorum is very conservative and cerainly more conservative than the platform he ran under in 2000.  I just have a hard time believing that the moderate voters in the state are going to vote for someone who is an extremist candidate like Santorum is.  Santorum did get some of that moderate vote in 2000, but as I said he is certainly more Conservative than the platform he ran under & IMHO will have a hard time keeping the moderate vote he had in 2000.  Democrats who were ok with Specter aren't going to vote for Santorum either.

Oh he is? Why doesn't this super-arch conservative have a super-arch conservative 99 or 100 rating from the ACU? Santorum is not an extremist.

As I stated earlier, conservative Dems and conservative Republicans will send Santorum back to the Senate. Sure the moderate vote will go more towards the Democratic nominee this time around but it won't be enough.

Oh, yeah those "Democrats that were ok with Specter" are liberal Dems who didn't vote for Santorum in 2000 and never planned on voting for him in 2006. They don't make up enough of the voting population in the state to swing the election.

[Keystone Phil]

PA

Hoffel managed 41% against a moderate candidate.  If he runs again in 06, he will do better than that against the super-arch Conservative Santorum who has presided in the Senate much more Conservative than he ran in 2000..  hoffel or even any Dem that runs could win based on the moderate voters in the state (ie take the voters that voted for Specter & Kerry).  Hoffel or whoever runs in 06, will also do much better among Dems than hoffel did this year.  because of his moderate views Specter did pretty well for a Republican among Democrats no way Santorum comes close to that feat

Super arch conservative. You guys are classic. If Hoeffel runs, Santorum will win. Now will Hoeffel get more than 42% of the vote, yes, of course. However, I don't think Hoeffel will be the nominee anyway. What Dems have to realize is that Santorum is popular among conservative Democrats (a large group of voters in PA especially out west).

Now whoever the Dem is might be able to pull away moderate Republican votes but other than that, not much else. I like how Dems (especially out of state Dems) make it sound so easy. "Oh yeah just take the Kerry voters and Santorum will lose." It doesn't work like that here. Hoeffel can't win. Hafer (the likely nominee) can't win. The only candidate that could beat Santorum (Bob Casey, Jr.) has ruled out a run. PA will stay Republican.

Santorum is a super-arch Conservative.  My point about the split ticket Specter-Kerry voters is that the vast majority of those are either moderates tp moderate Dems, people who more than likley will vote for someone like Hoffel or any other Democrat over Santorum.  Yes I am an out-of stater, but Santorum is very conservative and cerainly more conservative than the platform he ran under in 2000.  I just have a hard time believing that the moderate voters in the state are going to vote for someone who is an extremist candidate like Santorum is.  Santorum did get some of that moderate vote in 2000, but as I said he is certainly more Conservative than the platform he ran under & IMHO will have a hard time keeping the moderate vote he had in 2000.  Democrats who were ok with Specter aren't going to vote for Santorum either.

Oh he is? Why doesn't this super-arch conservative have a super-arch conservative 99 or 100 rating from the ACU? Santorum is not an extremist.

As I stated earlier, conservative Dems and conservative Republicans will send Santorum back to the Senate. Sure the moderate vote will go more towards the Democratic nominee this time around but it won't be enough.

Oh, yeah those "Democrats that were ok with Specter" are liberal Dems who didn't vote for Santorum in 2000 and never planned on voting for him in 2006. They don't make up enough of the voting population in the state to swing the election.

He was what a 95??  thats pretty damn Conservative. 

Actually he has an 86 rating.

[Keystone Phil]

PA

Hoffel managed 41% against a moderate candidate.  If he runs again in 06, he will do better than that against the super-arch Conservative Santorum who has presided in the Senate much more Conservative than he ran in 2000..  hoffel or even any Dem that runs could win based on the moderate voters in the state (ie take the voters that voted for Specter & Kerry).  Hoffel or whoever runs in 06, will also do much better among Dems than hoffel did this year.  because of his moderate views Specter did pretty well for a Republican among Democrats no way Santorum comes close to that feat

Super arch conservative. You guys are classic. If Hoeffel runs, Santorum will win. Now will Hoeffel get more than 42% of the vote, yes, of course. However, I don't think Hoeffel will be the nominee anyway. What Dems have to realize is that Santorum is popular among conservative Democrats (a large group of voters in PA especially out west).

Now whoever the Dem is might be able to pull away moderate Republican votes but other than that, not much else. I like how Dems (especially out of state Dems) make it sound so easy. "Oh yeah just take the Kerry voters and Santorum will lose." It doesn't work like that here. Hoeffel can't win. Hafer (the likely nominee) can't win. The only candidate that could beat Santorum (Bob Casey, Jr.) has ruled out a run. PA will stay Republican.

Santorum is a super-arch Conservative.  My point about the split ticket Specter-Kerry voters is that the vast majority of those are either moderates tp moderate Dems, people who more than likley will vote for someone like Hoffel or any other Democrat over Santorum.  Yes I am an out-of stater, but Santorum is very conservative and cerainly more conservative than the platform he ran under in 2000.  I just have a hard time believing that the moderate voters in the state are going to vote for someone who is an extremist candidate like Santorum is.  Santorum did get some of that moderate vote in 2000, but as I said he is certainly more Conservative than the platform he ran under & IMHO will have a hard time keeping the moderate vote he had in 2000.  Democrats who were ok with Specter aren't going to vote for Santorum either.

Oh he is? Why doesn't this super-arch conservative have a super-arch conservative 99 or 100 rating from the ACU? Santorum is not an extremist.

As I stated earlier, conservative Dems and conservative Republicans will send Santorum back to the Senate. Sure the moderate vote will go more towards the Democratic nominee this time around but it won't be enough.

Oh, yeah those "Democrats that were ok with Specter" are liberal Dems who didn't vote for Santorum in 2000 and never planned on voting for him in 2006. They don't make up enough of the voting population in the state to swing the election.

He was what a 95??  thats pretty damn Conservative. 

Actually he has an 86 rating.

Well actually 87 & he has gotten more Conservative as time has gone on.  He was #95 in 2002 & #90 in 2003, his 2003 # would be higher, but the ACU actually cited with the Dems & against the GOP  in the medicare reform bill (although for different reasons)

His lifetime rating is 87. He's not an extreme right winger.

[Keystone Phil]

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Extreme - Jim Inhofe, Pat Robertson, Jerry Falwell....

I honestly don't see Santorum as an extremist and neither do the people of Pennsylvania. They approve of his job as Senator.

[Keystone Phil]

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Extreme - Jim Inhofe, Pat Robertson, Jerry Falwell....

I honestly don't see Santorum as an extremist and neither do the people of Pennsylvania. They approve of his job as Senator.

Welll with some of the thing he has said about gays he can fit in the Falwell & Robertson category

The gay comment went alittle too far but I don't believe he hates gays as many believe he does.

[Keystone Phil]

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Extreme - Jim Inhofe, Pat Robertson, Jerry Falwell....

I honestly don't see Santorum as an extremist and neither do the people of Pennsylvania. They approve of his job as Senator.

Welll with some of the thing he has said about gays he can fit in the Falwell & Robertson category

The gay comment went alittle too far but I don't believe he hates gays as many believe he does.

Anyway my whole point is the Rick Santorum of 2004 is without a doubt more conservative than the Rick Santorum that ran for Senate in 2000, and that will may very well pose a problem for him in the 2006 election. the support & votes he had from the more liberal republicans, .conservative Dems, and overall moderates in general may not be there in 06. A moderate Democrat can really paint Santorum as being outside of the mainstream, an extremist & basically use some of his comments to prove the point.

I don't think you understand that Pennsylvanians accept Santorum's views and that's why he has some of the highest approval ratings in the state. The only Democrat that could beat Santorum is a conservative Democrat - Bob Casey, Jr. And Casey is not running so in my opinion, Santorum will keep the seat.

[Keystone Phil]

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Extreme - Jim Inhofe, Pat Robertson, Jerry Falwell....

I honestly don't see Santorum as an extremist and neither do the people of Pennsylvania. They approve of his job as Senator.

Welll with some of the thing he has said about gays he can fit in the Falwell & Robertson category

The gay comment went alittle too far but I don't believe he hates gays as many believe he does.

Anyway my whole point is the Rick Santorum of 2004 is without a doubt more conservative than the Rick Santorum that ran for Senate in 2000, and that will may very well pose a problem for him in the 2006 election. the support & votes he had from the more liberal republicans, .conservative Dems, and overall moderates in general may not be there in 06. A moderate Democrat can really paint Santorum as being outside of the mainstream, an extremist & basically use some of his comments to prove the point.

I don't think you understand that Pennsylvanians accept Santorum's views and that's why he has some of the highest approval ratings in the state. The only Democrat that could beat Santorum is a conservative Democrat - Bob Casey, Jr. And Casey is not running so in my opinion, Santorum will keep the seat.

Got a source for any recent approval ratings for Santorum? I heard they were slipping during the election season.

The last ones I've seen were the August numbers. I have no idea how you can "hear" about approval ratings when no ratings have been released.

[Keystone Phil]

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Extreme - Jim Inhofe, Pat Robertson, Jerry Falwell....

I honestly don't see Santorum as an extremist and neither do the people of Pennsylvania. They approve of his job as Senator.

Welll with some of the thing he has said about gays he can fit in the Falwell & Robertson category

The gay comment went alittle too far but I don't believe he hates gays as many believe he does.

Anyway my whole point is the Rick Santorum of 2004 is without a doubt more conservative than the Rick Santorum that ran for Senate in 2000, and that will may very well pose a problem for him in the 2006 election. the support & votes he had from the more liberal republicans, .conservative Dems, and overall moderates in general may not be there in 06. A moderate Democrat can really paint Santorum as being outside of the mainstream, an extremist & basically use some of his comments to prove the point.

I don't think you understand that Pennsylvanians accept Santorum's views and that's why he has some of the highest approval ratings in the state. The only Democrat that could beat Santorum is a conservative Democrat - Bob Casey, Jr. And Casey is not running so in my opinion, Santorum will keep the seat.

Got a source for any recent approval ratings for Santorum? I heard they were slipping during the election season.

The last ones I've seen were the August numbers. I have no idea how you can "hear" about approval ratings when no ratings have been released.

What are the numbers from August? I posted an article on here a while ago that said Santorum's approval numbers were slipping.

What were the numbers from the article? Quinnipiac had Santorum with about a 55% approval rating and the lowest disapproval numbers out of the three officials polled.

[Keystone Phil]

It just said his numbers were slipping and lower then Spector's.

Ok well if I cannot be provided with proof from the article then I can't respond.

[Keystone Phil]

WHAT WE'VE ALL BEEN WAITING FOR!



http://www.ricksantorum.com/

[Keystone Phil]

whose tommy thompson?

Former Governor of Wisconsin and outgoing Secretary of Health and Human Services.

[Keystone Phil]

Yep, he's running! WOO HOO!!!


EDITORIAL for December 16, 2004

Oh won’t you stay?

When he held his "final news conference" last week as the congressman for most of Northeast Philly, Joe Hoeffel proved that he is calling it quits way too early.

Mr. Hoeffel is a genuinely nice, pleasant, intelligent man with a good deal of potential to do a good deal more for Northeast Philadelphia, Montgomery County and the entire nation. His imminent successor in the U.S. House of Representatives, Allyson Schwartz, hopefully will do a fantastic job doing the people’s business, but Mr. Hoeffel, at just 54 years old, is too young to abandon his constituents. Mr. Hoeffel squandered the opportunity to go great things on an ill-conceived bid to unseat a Pennsylvania legend, Sen. Arlen Specter, last month.

Mr. Hoeffel likely would have made mincemeat out of Mr. Specter’s foe in the Republican primary, the far-right Pat Toomey, but Mr. Specter squeaked out a primary win and crushed Mr. Hoeffel in the Nov. 2 general election.

Mr. Hoeffel should have stayed put in the House, put in a few more terms as an outspoken advocate for The People, and then run for the Senate. Here’s hoping he will spend the next two years making tons of money as a lawyer in the private sector and then come back refreshed and ready to serve the public in 2007 — as Sen. Rick Santorum’s successor.

Ha! Hoeffel would have made micemeat out of Toomey....suuuure. You have to love these editorials. So what paper was it, BL? (Yeah due to the new name change, that's what I'll be calling you.) The Inquirer...The Daily News...? To them, anyone to the right of Chaka Fattah is far right.

Then they say he's an advocate for the people. Wow...a never ending comedy. This "advocate" had one bill passed while serving in the U.S. House and it was the renaming of a post office.

And where exactly in that editorial did it say he was running again? I can't find it.

[Keystone Phil]

Didn't show the full one I read in print.  If you read the one in print, it strongly hints at a Hoeffel run.  It seems the online version is edited.

Hoeffel has always hinted at a run. Everyone knows that. I thought this article was saying that it was official.

[Keystone Phil]

Yep, he's running! WOO HOO!!!


EDITORIAL for December 16, 2004

Oh won’t you stay?

When he held his "final news conference" last week as the congressman for most of Northeast Philly, Joe Hoeffel proved that he is calling it quits way too early.

Mr. Hoeffel is a genuinely nice, pleasant, intelligent man with a good deal of potential to do a good deal more for Northeast Philadelphia, Montgomery County and the entire nation. His imminent successor in the U.S. House of Representatives, Allyson Schwartz, hopefully will do a fantastic job doing the people’s business, but Mr. Hoeffel, at just 54 years old, is too young to abandon his constituents. Mr. Hoeffel squandered the opportunity to go great things on an ill-conceived bid to unseat a Pennsylvania legend, Sen. Arlen Specter, last month.

Mr. Hoeffel likely would have made mincemeat out of Mr. Specter’s foe in the Republican primary, the far-right Pat Toomey, but Mr. Specter squeaked out a primary win and crushed Mr. Hoeffel in the Nov. 2 general election.

Mr. Hoeffel should have stayed put in the House, put in a few more terms as an outspoken advocate for The People, and then run for the Senate. Here’s hoping he will spend the next two years making tons of money as a lawyer in the private sector and then come back refreshed and ready to serve the public in 2007 — as Sen. Rick Santorum’s successor.

Ha! Hoeffel would have made micemeat out of Toomey....suuuure. You have to love these editorials. So what paper was it, BL? (Yeah due to the new name change, that's what I'll be calling you.) The Inquirer...The Daily News...? To them, anyone to the right of Chaka Fattah is far right.

Then they say he's an advocate for the people. Wow...a never ending comedy. This "advocate" had one bill passed while serving in the U.S. House and it was the renaming of a post office.

And where exactly in that editorial did it say he was running again? I can't find it.

what makes you so sure Toomey would've won when Kerry won Pennsylvania? Why would anyone vote for Kerry and then Toomey? Why was Toomey such a great candidate?

Have I not addressed this point earlier? Why did people vote for Gore and Santorum? Democrats are partisan in this state when it comes to the Presidential race but when it comes to Congress/Senate/local offices, many don't mind voting Republican.

Whether you like it or not, this is a conservative state. Toomey's beliefs are more in line with what this state's voters believe than Hoeffel.

[Keystone Phil]

you know, when you consider the AFL-CIO endorsed Specter and the DSCC did not give Hoeffel that much money, it is a major accomplishment that he topped 40%. Far better than Specter's last opponent. Therefore he's clearly a much better candidate than Phil will admit.

Far better than Specter's last opponent? His last opponent received 38% of the vote so Hoeffel didn't do "far better."

[Keystone Phil]

Yep, he's running! WOO HOO!!!


EDITORIAL for December 16, 2004

Oh won’t you stay?

When he held his "final news conference" last week as the congressman for most of Northeast Philly, Joe Hoeffel proved that he is calling it quits way too early.

Mr. Hoeffel is a genuinely nice, pleasant, intelligent man with a good deal of potential to do a good deal more for Northeast Philadelphia, Montgomery County and the entire nation. His imminent successor in the U.S. House of Representatives, Allyson Schwartz, hopefully will do a fantastic job doing the people’s business, but Mr. Hoeffel, at just 54 years old, is too young to abandon his constituents. Mr. Hoeffel squandered the opportunity to go great things on an ill-conceived bid to unseat a Pennsylvania legend, Sen. Arlen Specter, last month.

Mr. Hoeffel likely would have made mincemeat out of Mr. Specter’s foe in the Republican primary, the far-right Pat Toomey, but Mr. Specter squeaked out a primary win and crushed Mr. Hoeffel in the Nov. 2 general election.

Mr. Hoeffel should have stayed put in the House, put in a few more terms as an outspoken advocate for The People, and then run for the Senate. Here’s hoping he will spend the next two years making tons of money as a lawyer in the private sector and then come back refreshed and ready to serve the public in 2007 — as Sen. Rick Santorum’s successor.

Ha! Hoeffel would have made micemeat out of Toomey....suuuure. You have to love these editorials. So what paper was it, BL? (Yeah due to the new name change, that's what I'll be calling you.) The Inquirer...The Daily News...? To them, anyone to the right of Chaka Fattah is far right.

Then they say he's an advocate for the people. Wow...a never ending comedy. This "advocate" had one bill passed while serving in the U.S. House and it was the renaming of a post office.

And where exactly in that editorial did it say he was running again? I can't find it.

what makes you so sure Toomey would've won when Kerry won Pennsylvania? Why would anyone vote for Kerry and then Toomey? Why was Toomey such a great candidate?

Have I not addressed this point earlier? Why did people vote for Gore and Santorum? Democrats are partisan in this state when it comes to the Presidential race but when it comes to Congress/Senate/local offices, many don't mind voting Republican.

Whether you like it or not, this is a conservative state. Toomey's beliefs are more in line with what this state's voters believe than Hoeffel.

Santorum in 2000/ and the Santorum campaign of 2000 was MUCH LESS Conservative than the Santorum of 2004, and Toomey.  Santorum of 2000 was able to get mixed ticket votes, Santorum of 2004, and Toomey would not be able to get those mixed ticket votes. 

What do you think is the reason bush was campaigning for Specter???  He liked the guy??  Liked his politics??  NO.  It was because with Toomey on the ticket it would    1.  bring out more liberals which would hurt Bush's chances and 2. Their would be a much better chance of the GOP losing a senate seat with Toomey on the ticket as opposed to the more moderate Specter.

Hey Smash, even if Santorum is more conservative than 2000, why are his approval ratings some of the highest and disapproval ratings lowest? You make it seem like his conservativism will hurt him so why isn't it hurting him. Santorum's approval ratings are always ignored by Dems when they try to make their case about the 2006 race.

As for Bush supporting Specter, yes it was done because Bush thought it would hurt his chances. In reality, I don't think there would be a big difference. Liberals came out to vote against Bush anyway. If Toomey was the nominee, that wouldn't cause more of them to come out.

As for Toomey's chances being worse than Specter's chances, I can agree with that and so would anyone else. However, I still believe that Toomey could have won.

[Keystone Phil]

Good points Smash.  It seems like PA Conservatives are the most whiny and it will kill them in the long run.  Had it not been for Bush/Santorum rescuing Specter, Toomey would have won and Hoeffel would have in turn made mincemeat out of him as the Northeast Times eluded to.  The elft would have turned out even greater for the Dem ticket and I do not see many Kerry-Toomey crossovers except in maybe the Lehigh Valley, but it wouldn't be enough to swing the state.  Had Toomey won, the AFL-CIO would have definitely backed Hoeffel and the DSCC would have infused massive amounts of $$$$.     

How would Hoeffel make micemeat out of Toomey? Put your biased aside and look at this state. You wouldn't have seen a bigger turnout for liberals just because Toomey was on the ticket. If Toomey had won the nomination, I agree that the AFL-CIO and DSCC would have put more money into this race but just as 2006 will prove, that won't be enough.

[Keystone Phil]

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I have proof. From http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11378.xml It's from August but it's the most recent one taken.

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Santorum is handling his job as United States Senator?

 
                     App       Dis     DK/NA

Aug 18, 2004   52      30      18

 

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How was Santorum much more moderate? You keep saying this but show me no proof (sound familiar ). Seriously though, I'd like to know how he was "more moderate." In my opinion, he's always been the same conservative that he is now.

As for Toomey, I don't think you understand the point that this states likes conservatives. The approve of Santorum and Toomey is from the same wing of the GOP as Santorum.

But for argument's sake, let's use the BRTD logic that Kerry voters would automatically go against Toomey. In that case, how would Toomey get crushed? Kerry in PA - 51%   Bush in  PA - 49%.  Now Hoeffel would get all the Kerry voters (in this scenario) and Toomey would get the Bush voters. 51-49 is "making mincemeat" out of the other candidate? And remember...this scenario wouldn't have been likely to happen. Many Kerry voters (especially in western PA) like to vote Democrat for President pretty much all the time but they vote Republican in local and statewide offices.