2006 Senate Seats

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Conrad is in no danger

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I never cease to be amazed that lefties from the UK make pronouncements about American politics in the absence of facts and logic.

I pointed out the two factors which allowed him to win reelection previously no longer apply.

Both the ADA and the ACU are in agreement that Conrad is on the left of the Democrat party in the Senate, in what is a conservative Republican state.

I'll ignore your first remark...
North Dakota isn't really a "conservative Republican state". It votes Republican at Presidential level, this is true, but it's also got a long tradition of Progressive Populism and general bloody mindedness.

Besides, Dorgan and Pomeroy (sp? I always get this wrong) were re-elected this year.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A lot of races will depend on national trends... oh... and retirements... here's an early guess:

ME: Safe GOP, unless Snowe runs for Governer
VT: Safe Ind.
MA: Yaaawn... Safe Dem
RI: If Chafee is the victim of a primary upset it's a dead cert Dem gain. If not, Leans GOP
CT: Yaaawn... Safe Dem
NY: If Rudy runs it's a tossup. Otherwise safe-to-lean Hillary Party (bah, humbug...)
NJ: Depends how the Gubernatorial mess goes, yadda, yadda, yadda.
DE: Yaaawn... Safe Dem
PA: Tossup. The amount of money that'll get spent here is frightening...
MD: Yaaawn... Safe Dem
WV: Yaaawn... Safe Dem, unless Byrd leaves the Senate... in which case it depends on the candidates (though unless the WVDems  up (which has been known) it should be a fairly easy hold)
VA: Yaaawn... Safe GOP... unless Warner runs.
FL: Tossup. See PA. Senator Bush?
MS: I'd be very suprised if Lott ran and lost (I can dream though) but Mike Moore would make it competative. No idea what'll happen if Lott retires.
TN: I *think* Frist has decided to leave the Senate. Tossup pending candidate announcements.
OH: Yaaawn... Safe GOP
IN: Yaaawn... Safe GOP
MI: With a strong GOP candidate would be a tossup. Probably Leans Dem though.
WI: Yaaawn... Safe Dem
MN: The GOP will try, but I'd be suprised if Dayton lost
MO: Will probably go with the national trend
TX: Yaaawn... Safe GOP
NM: Yaaawn... Safe Dem
NB: Leans Dem... for now at least
ND: Unless the GOP can get themselves a star candidate (which I doubt) it's another yaaawn...
MT: Depends what the New Gov does. For now it's Leans GOP.
WY: Yaaawn... Safe GOP
UT: Yaaawn... Safe GOP
AZ: Yaaawn... Safe GOP
NV: Yaaawn... Safe GOP
CA: Yaaawn... Safe Dem
WA: Has the Gubernatorial saga ended yet? If Rossi loses the Senate race is a tossup
HI: Yaaawn... Safe Dem

In addition to that, it's possible that Bunning is "retired" soon. If that happens the race would depend on candidates (although I'd hope Fletcher would appoint himself... if only to see him get slaughtered)