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Author Topic: When will the last veteran of ________ die?  (Read 869 times)
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BRTD
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« on: May 08, 2011, 12:56:30 pm »
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WWII
First Israeli-Arab War
Korean War
Vietnam War
Six Day War
Yom Kippur War
Iraq-Iran War
Soviet invasion of Afghanistan
Lebanese Civil War
Persian Gulf War
The former Yugoslavia
Afghan War
Iraq War
South Osettia War
Libyan Civil War
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ZuWo
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« Reply #1 on: May 08, 2011, 02:40:50 pm »
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I'll just pick WWII and say 2035.
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BRTD
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« Reply #2 on: May 08, 2011, 02:51:33 pm »
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I'll just pick WWII and say 2035.

It'd probably be a bit later. Someone who was 18 in 1945 would've been born in 1927 and most of these last surviving veterans are dying around the age of 110-111.
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« Reply #3 on: May 08, 2011, 03:17:09 pm »
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I'll just pick WWII and say 2035.

It'd probably be a bit later. Someone who was 18 in 1945 would've been born in 1927 and most of these last surviving veterans are dying around the age of 110-111.

Yes, that's probably correct. I just made a rough calculation, but something like 2039, 2040 appears more precise. Wink
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dead0man
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« Reply #4 on: May 08, 2011, 03:51:41 pm »
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WWII-2042
First Israeli-Arab War-2029
Korean War-2058
Vietnam War-2089
Six Day War-2084
Yom Kippur War-2092
Iraq-Iran War-2082
Soviet invasion of Afghanistan-2091
Lebanese Civil War-2080
Persian Gulf War-2099
The former Yugoslavia-2091
Afghan War-2112
Iraq War-2112
South Osettia War=2101
Libyan Civil War-2099


Our lives are going to start getting quite a bit longer over the next several decades.
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Insula Dei
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« Reply #5 on: May 08, 2011, 03:58:01 pm »
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Are you having people live to age 130+ over there? I find that very hard to believe.
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dead0man
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« Reply #6 on: May 08, 2011, 04:14:23 pm »
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Are you having people live to age 130+ over there? I find that very hard to believe.
Well if somebody had said that maybe you'd be on to something.  See, lifetimes are getting longer.  In the future, it's very likely that many many people will live to be 130 (and more).  That shouldn't be hard to believe at all.
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« Reply #7 on: May 08, 2011, 04:15:02 pm »
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On the other hand, the maximum possible lifespan of a human being wasn't much expanded since the 19th century. For instance, Geert Adriaans Boomgaard (1788-1899) and Margaret Ann Neve (1792-1903) lived both for 110 years.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_verified_supercentenarians_who_died_before_1980

Currently, the oldest living person on the planet is Besse Cooper, age 114.
« Last Edit: May 08, 2011, 04:16:56 pm by Jonathan Fakenham »Logged
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BRTD
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« Reply #8 on: May 08, 2011, 04:50:23 pm »
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Yes most biologists think max human lifespan is 115.
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« Reply #9 on: May 08, 2011, 06:36:33 pm »
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A rule of thumb that seems to apply here is that the last veteran tends to die around the time that the 100th anniversary of the war is approaching. There are some slight variations, and human lifespans have been generally getting longer, but that's been the general trend for the last hundred years or so.
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« Reply #10 on: May 08, 2011, 07:21:48 pm »
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Vietnam War-2089
Iraq-Iran War-2082

What? The Iraq-Iran War ended a good 10 years after the Vietnam War did. Also the Iranians notoriously made use of child soldiers, based on other lifespans around slightly later than 2082 is likely. But someone would have to live to be about 130 to be a Vietnam War veteran in 2089. Hell 2089 is over 110 years after the war ended.
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« Reply #11 on: May 08, 2011, 08:09:25 pm »
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I didn't think of the child soldiers thing, but I wouldn't be shocked at all if there are a handful of people hitting their 130s in 2089.  In fact, I'd be more shocked if there wasn't.
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BRTD
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« Reply #12 on: May 08, 2011, 08:17:47 pm »
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Well if you think that there will probably be living Iraq-Iran War veterans in the 22nd century.
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« Reply #13 on: May 08, 2011, 11:03:36 pm »
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I'll just pick WWII and say 2035.

It'd probably be a bit later. Someone who was 18 in 1945 would've been born in 1927 and most of these last surviving veterans are dying around the age of 110-111.

Don't forget a few people who lied about their age so they could fight. (Who could blame them? It was an Epic Battle between Good and Evil.)
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Gustaf
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« Reply #14 on: May 09, 2011, 11:20:06 am »
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WWII-2042
First Israeli-Arab War-2029
Korean War-2058
Vietnam War-2089
Six Day War-2084
Yom Kippur War-2092
Iraq-Iran War-2082
Soviet invasion of Afghanistan-2091
Lebanese Civil War-2080
Persian Gulf War-2099
The former Yugoslavia-2091
Afghan War-2112
Iraq War-2112
South Osettia War=2101
Libyan Civil War-2099


Our lives are going to start getting quite a bit longer over the next several decades.

This doesn't seem entirely consistent. The first Israeli-Arab War ended only a couple of years after WWII so why would their last veteran die 13 years earlier? And the Korean war ended 8 years after WWII, why would their last veteran die 16 years later? And the Yom Kippur war preceded the Yugoslavian war by about two decades and yet their last veteran would die a year later?
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dead0man
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« Reply #15 on: May 09, 2011, 01:26:51 pm »
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WWII-2042
First Israeli-Arab War-2029
Korean War-2058
Vietnam War-2089
Six Day War-2084
Yom Kippur War-2092
Iraq-Iran War-2082
Soviet invasion of Afghanistan-2091
Lebanese Civil War-2080
Persian Gulf War-2099
The former Yugoslavia-2091
Afghan War-2112
Iraq War-2112
South Osettia War=2101
Libyan Civil War-2099


Our lives are going to start getting quite a bit longer over the next several decades.

This doesn't seem entirely consistent. The first Israeli-Arab War ended only a couple of years after WWII so why would their last veteran die 13 years earlier? And the Korean war ended 8 years after WWII, why would their last veteran die 16 years later? And the Yom Kippur war preceded the Yugoslavian war by about two decades and yet their last veteran would die a year later?
Wars that have a lot of people in them have a greater chance of one of them living extraordinarily long.  Wars involving more 1st world powers are going to be more likely to have extraordinary long lives.  Yes, even pointing these things out there are still some inconsistencies in my guesses.  But let me repeat that....GUESSES.  I'd also like to point out that I'm the only person to actually respond to the OP with more than one date.  Not that I'm complaining...just saying.
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GMantis
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« Reply #16 on: May 09, 2011, 02:05:38 pm »
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A rule of thumb that seems to apply here is that the last veteran tends to die around the time that the 100th anniversary of the war is approaching. There are some slight variations, and human lifespans have been generally getting longer, but that's been the general trend for the last hundred years or so.
No, it seems that the last veteran tends to die around the 90th anniversary of the end of the war. It seems that the probability of living beyond 110 is negligible, so it seems that's the maximum age people around 20 when the war ended can reach.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #17 on: May 09, 2011, 04:01:39 pm »
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WWII-2042
First Israeli-Arab War-2029
Korean War-2058
Vietnam War-2089
Six Day War-2084
Yom Kippur War-2092
Iraq-Iran War-2082
Soviet invasion of Afghanistan-2091
Lebanese Civil War-2080
Persian Gulf War-2099
The former Yugoslavia-2091
Afghan War-2112
Iraq War-2112
South Osettia War=2101
Libyan Civil War-2099


Our lives are going to start getting quite a bit longer over the next several decades.

This doesn't seem entirely consistent. The first Israeli-Arab War ended only a couple of years after WWII so why would their last veteran die 13 years earlier? And the Korean war ended 8 years after WWII, why would their last veteran die 16 years later? And the Yom Kippur war preceded the Yugoslavian war by about two decades and yet their last veteran would die a year later?
Wars that have a lot of people in them have a greater chance of one of them living extraordinarily long.  Wars involving more 1st world powers are going to be more likely to have extraordinary long lives.  Yes, even pointing these things out there are still some inconsistencies in my guesses.  But let me repeat that....GUESSES.  I'd also like to point out that I'm the only person to actually respond to the OP with more than one date.  Not that I'm complaining...just saying.

Fair point and fair point.
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