Obama vs. Gingrich

[NHI]

Suppose Gingrich wins the nomination, the economy improves and unemployment drops to 6.7%, would the below scenario be likely?

D: 421
R: 117

[Historia Crux]

Suppose Gingrich wins the nomination, the economy improves and unemployment drops to 6.7%, would the below scenario be likely?

D: 421
R: 117

Seems possible, though I don't think Texas would go Dem. Not sure about Indiana, it's been trending more Republican these days since 2008. Georgia would be another interesting state, Gingrich himself is not to terribly popular there and in such a landslide, I could see the peachtree state turn it's back on a favorite son over Obama.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Texas wouldn't go Democratic before Georgia or South Carolina.

[Skill and Chance]

I'd have to think a drop to 6.7% unemployment would produce a much bigger landslide for Obama (or any incumbent president).  That would be more impressive than Reagan's recovery and would virtually guarantee Obama 60% approval on election day.  I would expect a modern day 1964 if the economy is growing that fast: CO and VA go 60% for Obama, along with every state that voted left of them in 2008, with Gingrich winning only ID, UT, WY, OK, AL, MS and maybe LA.

[MAINEiac4434]

Texas wouldn't go Democratic before Georgia or South Carolina.

While South Carolina I agree on, I disagree on Georgia. In 2008, Georgia was only 5.21% away from going Dem (likely because of the large African-American population in Georgia). I actually think both Texas and Georgia could go for the Democrats if the right latino southern candidate came along.

South Carolina could also go Dem eventually if the right candidate comes along, but I think that Georgia is definitely the swingiest of those states.

[SmokingCricket]

I doubt Texas shifting, but I could see Georgia and West Virginia flipping. Otherwise, Obama would probably slaughter Gingrich anyway unless the economy really tanks in a year.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

If unemployment goes below 7% (remember that it was 7.5% when Obama took office), and the GOP nominee is polarizing and unpopular,

[Vote UKIP!]

I'm a bit more optimistic as to Newt's chances. Don't discount Newt's debating skills, and all the preceding maps are based on significant economic improvement, which I do not see happening even in the best case scenario. Map, coming soon!

[feeblepizza]

Switch Georgia, South Carolina, and maybe West Virginia. I'm not sure about Texas, though.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Suppose Gingrich wins the nomination, the economy improves and unemployment drops to 6.7%, would the below scenario be likely?

D: 421
R: 117

Seems possible, though I don't think Texas would go Dem. Not sure about Indiana, it's been trending more Republican these days since 2008. Georgia would be another interesting state, Gingrich himself is not to terribly popular there and in such a landslide, I could see the peachtree state turn it's back on a favorite son over Obama.

Indiana and Texas will vote Newt. Evenin this climate. Why would Texas support Obama when Obama wouldn't aid Texas in it's fight against the wildfires.