New Jersey Turns Against Christie

[pbrower2a]

That poll is a year-and-a-half old, champ.

Should have caught that. It would never appear on my map because mine shows only post-election polls (mid-November 2012 onward). Christie gained support because he stood up to Republican politicians. That remains the reality. 

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Should have caught that. It would never appear on my map because mine shows only post-election polls (mid-November 2012 onward). Christie gained support because he stood up to Republican politicians. That remains the reality.  

Christie gained support because he was an able administrator during and after Hurricane Sandy. Standard rally effect. Standing up to national Republicans probably helped him hold on to and solidify that popularity, though.

[pbrower2a]

Should have caught that. It would never appear on my map because mine shows only post-election polls (mid-November 2012 onward). Christie gained support because he stood up to Republican politicians. That remains the reality.  

Christie gained support because he was an able administrator during and after Hurricane Sandy. Standard rally effect. Standing up to national Republicans probably helped him hold on to and solidify that popularity, though.

He deserves recognition for putting service to the electorate above Party.


I am going on margins here. Democrats ahead will of course be shown in red and Republicans ahead will be shown in blue. Saturation of color will so look:

tie white
1-3%       20% saturation
4-7%       40% saturation
8%-20%  60% saturation
over 20% 80% saturation

The lowest level of saturation  (20%) now applies for any incumbent Governor whose approval is under 8% but whose approval rating is under 50%. The second-lowest level of saturation (40%) now applies to any Governor whose approval rating is under 50% but whose margin of difference is 8% or higher. No change applies to any Governor whose approval is lower than disapproval.

Behind, yellow the colors to green for Republicans  and orange for Democrats. Dark shades of orange are really brown.  Ties are white.

Governors who die, resign, are defeated in bids for re-election, retire at the end of their terms, or are impeached and removed from office will be whited out. Independent governor or no governor -- white.

Here is my map of current margins of approval for governors based only upon results from after the November 2012 election. As you can see from this map Chris Christie is in no danger of defeat in the next election.  Red shades indicate an incumbent Democrat in good shape, blue shades show an incumbent Republican in good shape. Deep red or blue shades indicate a very strong position in polling (as for Cuomo in New York or Christie in New Jersey). Orange shows the inverse of a Democrat being successful (Quinn is in trouble in Illinois) and green shows the inverse of a successful Republican Governor (Scott is wildly unpopular in Florida) .  

[pbrower2a]

12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Christopher Christie is handling his job as Governor?

Tot    Rep    Dem      Ind    Men    Wom    Wht        Blk           Hsp   Approve              74%    93%    56%    78%    79%    69%    78%     56%    65% Disapprove           21      4         37       18       18        24       18        33       26 DK/NA                     5      3           7        4          3         7          4        10         9                        COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS..............                      Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-29  30-44  45-64  65+   Approve              70%    76%    68%    80%    75%    57%    76%    76%    79% Disapprove           25     18         26       16         22     40       20       20       13 DK/NA                      4      6           6         4           3       3         4         5         8                                                              Philly                Union                        Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn   land   Shore    HsHld   Approve                62%    76%    82%    68%    79%    66% Disapprove           28        21        15       27        14       29 DK/NA                     9          3          4         5          7         5

Few politicians these days can win every imaginable group within a state.  I don't know whether this will quite hold.

It's by a good pollster (Quinnipiac) and it is from Wednesday.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-centers/polling-institute/new-jersey/release-detail/?ReleaseID=1833
 

[Keystone Phil]

New Rutgers-Eagleton poll has Christie's approval rating at 73%.

[Simfan34]

Why do young people oppose him so much?

[Obamanation]

Why do young people oppose him so much?

Maybe because he's fat? Young people are probably more image-conscious than their elders. I'm just brainstorming, not really sure...small sample size?

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Why do young people oppose him so much?

Maybe because he's fat? Young people are probably more image-conscious than their elders. I'm just brainstorming, not really sure...small sample size?

Young people tend, in my experience, to be much more partisan (in both directions) than middle-aged people.

[opebo]

Yeah, come on, young people in NJ will be almost all Democrats, and quite strongly so.

[Simfan34]

Why do young people oppose him so much?

Maybe because he's fat? Young people are probably more image-conscious than their elders. I'm just brainstorming, not really sure...small sample size?

Young people tend, in my experience, to be much more partisan (in both directions) than middle-aged people.

So they're not thinking? That's awfully cynical, even by my standards. They have to have a reason.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

Why do young people oppose him so much?

The youth are overwhelmingly in support of gay marriage and view it as the civil liberties struggle of our generation. Christie's opposition is not well received.

[Benj]

Why do young people oppose him so much?

Maybe because he's fat? Young people are probably more image-conscious than their elders. I'm just brainstorming, not really sure...small sample size?

Young people tend, in my experience, to be much more partisan (in both directions) than middle-aged people.

So they're not thinking? That's awfully cynical, even by my standards. They have to have a reason.

There are definitely good reasons not to like Christie. Gay marriage is a big one.

[Obamanation]

Why do young people oppose him so much?

The youth are overwhelmingly in support of gay marriage and view it as the civil liberties struggle of our generation. Christie's opposition is not well received.

I would be surprised if young people in Jersey are aware of Christie's gay marriage stance.

[Keystone Phil]

Christie calls out people that BS. Is it really any wonder why so many young people dislike him?

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Christie calls out people that BS. Is it really any wonder why so many young people dislike him?

Brilliant political analysis, Phil.

Have this forum learned anything about crosstabs?

[Badger]

Christie calls out people that BS. Is it really any wonder why so many young people dislike him?

Wow, and you used to call ME an old man. You're prematurely curmudgeonish, Phil.

I'll just leave before you yell at me to get off your lawn.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Why do young people oppose him so much?

The youth are overwhelmingly in support of gay marriage and view it as the civil liberties struggle of our generation. Christie's opposition is not well received.

I would be surprised if young people in Jersey are aware of Christie's gay marriage stance.

Young people are quite aware that there's one party that opposes gay rights. Christie is a Republican, so it's safe to assume he opposes gay marriage.

[Nhoj]

Has no one said the perhaps obvious reasons? One being small sample size, the other being young people are less white.

[krazen1211]

http://blogs.app.com/capitolquickies/2013/02/12/spokesman-buono-not-wearing-seatbelt-during-accident/

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Barbara Buono was not wearing a seatbelt when the car she was a passenger in was involved in an accident Monday night.

Buono’s campaign staff, in an emailed statement this morning, said the state senator suffered a small cut to her forehead and was taken to the hospital as a precautionary measure.

“There she was treated and released shortly thereafter,” said campaign spokesman David Turner in the email. “She is back at work this morning.”

She was riding in the back seat of the car and was not wearing a seatbelt, Turner said.




Didn't learn from Corzine I suppose.

[njwes]

Why do young people oppose him so much?

As a young NJ resident I'd say that most people my age are not particularly informed when it comes to politics (no surprise there) and have trouble separating Chris Christie (R) from the Republican Party in general. They aren't really aware that that are notable differences between, say, Christie and Kelly Ayotte. The term moderate doesn't mean much to them; it's the R and the D that really matters. And they see the Republican Party as Bad, for a few reasons, but overwhelmingly imo because (1) the Reps generally oppose gay marriage, which has unfortunately become for many THE sole issue on which many of my generation judge candidates (and for that matter the only one they know anything about), and (2) because the Reps are often overtly religious, which doesn't play well to a demographic that is largely secular, doesn't really take religion seriously, and often treats it as something distasteful/an object of derision. There's also just the general, thoughtless liberalism that comes with being a college student/recent college graduate and getting most of your news from the Daily Show, Colbert, Slate, Salon, Gawker, etc.

To the comments above, I'd say that yes, gay marriage is a big aspect of the disapproval, but not because young people necessarily are aware of Christie's position on the issue (most of my friends aren't even aware of his veto), but just because he is a Republican, which to their mind means automatically anti gay marriage.

The irony is that many young people who have a kneejerk disapproval of Christie would support him if they actually were aware of his policies, stand on issues, etc. (and, maybe as or more important, the stance of the Jersey Democrats on the same issues).

[Simfan34]

Why do young people oppose him so much?

As a young NJ resident I'd say that most people my age are not particularly informed when it comes to politics (no surprise there) and have trouble separating Chris Christie (R) from the Republican Party in general. They aren't really aware that that are notable differences between, say, Christie and Kelly Ayotte. The term moderate doesn't mean much to them; it's the R and the D that really matters. And they see the Republican Party as Bad, for a few reasons, but overwhelmingly imo because (1) the Reps generally oppose gay marriage, which has unfortunately become for many THE sole issue on which many of my generation judge candidates (and for that matter the only one they know anything about), and (2) because the Reps are often overtly religious, which doesn't play well to a demographic that is largely secular, doesn't really take religion seriously, and often treats it as something distasteful/an object of derision. There's also just the general, thoughtless liberalism that comes with being a college student/recent college graduate and getting most of your news from the Daily Show, Colbert, Slate, Salon, Gawker, etc.

To the comments above, I'd say that yes, gay marriage is a big aspect of the disapproval, but not because young people necessarily are aware of Christie's position on the issue (most of my friends aren't even aware of his veto), but just because he is a Republican, which to their mind means automatically anti gay marriage.

The irony is that many young people who have a kneejerk disapproval of Christie would support him if they actually were aware of his policies, stand on issues, etc. (and, maybe as or more important, the stance of the Jersey Democrats on the same issues).

Yeah this is pretty much what I thought. Excellent post. The liberal media bubble and non-critical group think attitude certainly plays a major role.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Someone please change the title of this thread. It's getting ridiculous.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Someone please change the title of this thread. It's getting ridiculous.

I rather like it.

[Holmes]

It's "ironic".

[Badger]

Someone please change the title of this thread. It's getting ridiculous.