New Jersey Turns Against Christie

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

SUSA is a joke so ill wait to see if PPP confirms these numbers.

Not sure if they're a joke, exactly, but they do have a history of reporting much harsher approval numbers for NJ incumbents, Democrat and Republican alike.

The most recent Quinnipiac (3 weeks ago) showed Christie at 47–46 approvals. I'd be surprised if his numbers really moved so sharply, so fast without a scandal.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

This, also many Republicans don't realize that Christie won largely due to Corzine and would have lost against, say, Codey or Pallone.

I don't think that's accurate.

Codey would have won, but that's a special case because he was a popular former governor. Christie was viewed as an incredibly strong candidate, one that New Jersey Democrats viewed in 2008 to be, by and large, unbeatable. I don't think Pallone would have have won.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

(good job, SUSA)

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I guess his bullying schtick grew old pretty fast.

Not sure how it's "pretty fast" when he has been in office and has been "bullying" since January 2010. 

Well, sure. If you compare him with other Republican stars like Walker, Kasich and Scott, his honeymoon lasted longer.

These aren't terrible numbers when you consider approval ratings in the mid 30s are normal for New Jersey elected officials.

But, but, but...
I thought he was the BEST governor of New Jersey evah!!!
And the white knight that would save the Republican party in 2012.

Considering the approvals ratings the last two governors of New Jersey suffered, Christie is still in decent shape. Honestly, after decades of mismanagement by Democrats and Republicans alike, the state is borderline ungovernable.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Yep, he's doing just fine and far  better than his predecessors.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/07/christie-on-decline.html

43% approval.

More importantly, his approvals are actually better than all those mentioned as possible potential rivals: Pallone,  Sweeney, and Corzine.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

What is the sum of state support for Camden?

In my experience, people know that NJ's cities have areas of concentrated poverty and it doesn't make sense to abandon the kids there to whatever their inadequate rateables support. People who disagree, vote Republican. People who don't disagree but worry about taxes, are much more fixated on high property taxes, of which zero goes to Camden.

Camden schools are "Abbott District" schools, which means, due to Camden's inability to fund them properly, the state picks up the tab until spending per student is up to the level of the most affluent school districts. As such, Camden spends $3,000 more student than the average NJ public school, all funded by taxpayers elsewhere in the state. There has been, of course, absolutely no connection between above-average school funding and student performance in Abbott Districts, which means -- obviously -- that merely throwing money at the problem won't help. But since that's all the State Supreme Court cares about -- funding -- well ...

Further, the Camden PD and school system were in such neglected shape that they were taken over, management-wise, by the State of New Jersey. That's slated to end in 2012, unless there's an extension.

You could easily make the argument that everyone in NJ pays higher property taxes because Camden is in such terrible shape -- much of it the fault of former mayors, a string of which have gone to prison. It's not a dying town, it's a dead one. Municipal aid for Camden is high, so therefore, municipal aid for other towns is lower because of it. And when there's low municipal aid, of course, there's higher property taxes.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Getting this thread back on track:

Monmouth U/NJ Press Media
Approve: 50%
Disapprove: 41%

That's a sharp turnaround from their previous poll in May, which showed Christie underwater.

http://www.newjerseynewsroom.com/state/christies-job-approval-rating-climbs-to-50-percent-for-first-time

http://www.politickernj.com/50179/monmouth-poll-christie-job-approval-48

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Getting this thread back on track:

Monmouth U/NJ Press Media
Approve: 50%
Disapprove: 41%

That's a sharp turnaround from their previous poll in May, which showed Christie underwater.

http://www.newjerseynewsroom.com/state/christies-job-approval-rating-climbs-to-50-percent-for-first-time

http://www.politickernj.com/50179/monmouth-poll-christie-job-approval-48

That's what I mentioned a few days ago before krazen and brittain went off about Camden.  

sorry, I have you on subconscious ignore

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

more like livin' large
what what

(sorry, I'm white)

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

wait till spring and the next episode of school district budget wars

Who cares about next spring? State legislative elections are in three weeks.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

We'll see how long it actually holds. Not that it really matters, he still has a terrible attitude for someone who is running a state, he's too angry.

So did Rudy Giuliani. Same general constituency.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Have you guys seen this yet?

Chris Christie Responds To Female Hecklers With Offensive Oral Sex Joke.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Classy guy.

"Something" doesn't go down, someone goes down. I don't see how this fits as an oral sex joke. "Sweetheart" is admittedly condescending, though.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Abbott proved a very important thing: That flooding poor districts with cash doesn't make for higher test scores. That said, it is absolutely the case that wealthier areas should help support poorer areas of those poorer areas would otherwise be severely underfunded.

IMO, the most objectionable part of Abbott is the use of 1970s era numbers to determine which districts are in need. By including Hoboken into the Abbott mix, a town that really needs the help gets edged out.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Massachusetts doesn't feel the need to do court-ordered rigamaroles like the Abbott program because the citizenry of Massachusetts is somewhat more reasonable than that of New Jersey about taxation and what taxes are needed to fund desired programs in general, and there's less outright hatred by people in the affluent suburbs of anywhere that is not an affluent suburb (although that's also because comparatively less of the population lives in affluent suburbs). Then again, we use sales and luxury rather than property taxes for the most part.

Let me guess: You're not a property tax payer. Massachusetts redistributes in a way similar to New Jersey, in a way that generates similar levels of upset. I'm just fortunate that I live in one of those towns that gets state aid -- helps keep my own property taxes in check ($4,000+ per year).

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Massachusetts doesn't feel the need to do court-ordered rigamaroles like the Abbott program because the citizenry of Massachusetts is somewhat more reasonable than that of New Jersey about taxation and what taxes are needed to fund desired programs in general, and there's less outright hatred by people in the affluent suburbs of anywhere that is not an affluent suburb (although that's also because comparatively less of the population lives in affluent suburbs). Then again, we use sales and luxury rather than property taxes for the most part.

Let me guess: You're not a property tax payer. Massachusetts redistributes in a way similar to New Jersey, in a way that generates similar levels of upset. I'm just fortunate that I live in one of those towns that gets state aid -- helps keep my own property taxes in check ($4,000+ per year).

Education dollars spent per student are far lower in Massachusetts of course.

Not true, they're largely identical.

2009 spending per student in NJ: $13,601
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2010/02/nj_school_report_card_annual.html

2010 spending per student in MA: $13,055
http://profiles.doe.mass.edu/state_report/ppx.aspx

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Holy hell, Christie could win all 21 counties at this point.

Troubling for the GOP, though: Christie isn't popular because Republicans are popular. Christie is popular for telling national Republicans to go f- themselves -- for being the first person with power to have the sense to say to his own party, "holy hell, what the f- is wrong with you?"

Both New Jersey Democrats and New Jersey Republicans are cheering that way too loudly. Support for Christie is deep, but I would not want to be a GOP congressman or state house member up for re-election in 2013/4. Democrats and Independents are going to want to take their revenge out on someone, politically, and Republicans are just going to be all too OK with letting them do that.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

That poll is a year-and-a-half old, champ.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Should have caught that. It would never appear on my map because mine shows only post-election polls (mid-November 2012 onward). Christie gained support because he stood up to Republican politicians. That remains the reality.  

Christie gained support because he was an able administrator during and after Hurricane Sandy. Standard rally effect. Standing up to national Republicans probably helped him hold on to and solidify that popularity, though.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Why do young people oppose him so much?

The youth are overwhelmingly in support of gay marriage and view it as the civil liberties struggle of our generation. Christie's opposition is not well received.

I would be surprised if young people in Jersey are aware of Christie's gay marriage stance.

Young people are quite aware that there's one party that opposes gay rights. Christie is a Republican, so it's safe to assume he opposes gay marriage.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Someone please change the title of this thread. It's getting ridiculous.

I rather like it.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Christie is also brutally anti-teachers' union, and the youngest in New Jersey tend to be those with the closest ties to the teaching community. You know, on account of many of them still being students or otherwise being fresh out of school.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

David Stahl, the mayor of East Brunswick (a suburban Democratic town of 46,000 in the suburban-and-urban Democratic county of Middlesex) has switched parties from Democrat to Republican. Stahl will seek election to the heavily Democratic 18th Senate district, currently held by gubernatorial candidate Barbara Buono.

In 2009, Christie carried Middlesex county in something of an upset, though arguably, given trends elsewhere in the state, you could say a statewide Republican now needs blue collar Middlesex to win. Republican candidates did surprisingly well here in 2009: Assemblyman Diegnan (D) won by a relatively narrow 26,317 to 24,091 margin against nobody Joe Sinagra (R). It's the most Republican of the Middlesex Senate districts (read: most suburban), and is theoretically winnable in a Christie-dominated GOP wave election.

It wasn't close in 2007 or 2011, but it is worth noting that Republicans picked up this seat in the 1991 anti-Florio superwave, with the incumbent winning upset re-election campaigns in 1993 and 1997.