US House Redistricting: Idaho

[JacobNC]

Walt Minnick gerrymander:



District 1 (green):

54% John McCain
45% Barack Obama

87% White
7% Hispanic

District 2 (orange):

73% John McCain
27% Barack Obama

86% White
11% Hispanic



Obviously, this would never happen.  But I was surprised that you could make a genuinely competitive district in Idaho.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So what's the minimum number of seats needed to draw an Obama district?

*fiddles around*

The answer is five.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Actually it can be done with four with a hideous gerrymander.

[Napoleon]

Actually it can be done with four with a hideous gerrymander.

Map please!

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Given that Idaho is on track to gain a district in 2020, there will be a good chance that the Democrats could actually win a district there (and hold it for more than one term), since redistricting is bipartisan and requires minimal county splits. A Boise/Nampa district is only about 54% McCain.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Actually it can be done with four with a hideous gerrymander.

Map please!

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Actually it can be done with four with a hideous gerrymander.

Map please!

You didn't paint yourself into a corner, did you? That is, there's enough room for exactly one district on one side and two districts on the other, right?

[minionofmidas]

Looks like there probably is, from what I know of Idaho's population distribution.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm not sure but if there isn't you can just extend north through the center of that large county in the middle instead of the edge. There's barely any people there anyway.

[minionofmidas]

Okay, I just drew it. Northern district is hugely oversized.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It's possible to remove the Teton County part on the east border and still have a seat that's 52.5% Obama.

To anyone more familiar with the Boise area, am I correct in my assumption here? The far eastern bit of Boise is the most Dem and as noted you can draw a 66% Obama LD here. Is this then downtown and the area where the few hipsters and urban liberals of Boise live? And the further west you go, it appears to get more and more suburban, and Republican. Now here's the odd thing, there isn't as much suburban development to the west, and these large low density precincts are heavily Dem. So are these mountains and ski country and there's a lot of ski resorts just to the east of Boise? And thus all the ultra-Republican suburbia has developed to the west?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

52.5% Obama.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

On a more boring note, here's a likely map that'll actually be adopted:



ID-01 becomes marginally more Dem, but with Minnick now 68 years old and an incumbent that isn't Bill Sali (his home is actually now in ID-02), I wouldn't expect much to come of that.

[minionofmidas]

52.5% Obama.

I can best that.



53.2% Obama, with the blue district rightsized (and 72.5% McCain).

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

It's possible to remove the Teton County part on the east border and still have a seat that's 52.5% Obama.

To anyone more familiar with the Boise area, am I correct in my assumption here? The far eastern bit of Boise is the most Dem and as noted you can draw a 66% Obama LD here. Is this then downtown and the area where the few hipsters and urban liberals of Boise live? And the further west you go, it appears to get more and more suburban, and Republican. Now here's the odd thing, there isn't as much suburban development to the west, and these large low density precincts are heavily Dem. So are these mountains and ski country and there's a lot of ski resorts just to the east of Boise? And thus all the ultra-Republican suburbia has developed to the west?

No those "low density" precincts are just filled with wealthy latte liberals. Precinct 38 (lol i've memorized some of these precincts where I drew legislative districts a few months ago) and a few others are filled with 100,000$ earners.

Boise is one of the most politically polarized small cities in the country behind Salt Lake City because of it's cultural divide between the blossoming "North End",which has become gentrified at a rapid pace, filled with incoming yuppies, aging hippies and generally eclectic people looking to move to a small city with a decent climate. Built to Spill is home to this neighborhood. Nader performed better than Bush in most of these precincts.

Obama's results are really inflated in Boise because of the housing collapse which hit Meridian hard. It fits the pattern of quicky developing small cities that shifted towards Obama yet are only slowly trending towards the Democrats. While I expect Boise to become a Democratic stronghold in the future, it has a long way to go.

[minionofmidas]

You can draw one of three districts in Idaho up to about 49% Obama. I suppose, if you threw coterminousness (coterminity?) out the window entirely and basically just make a district consisting of the most democratic precincts in the state, you could get it up to ~53.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The commission's deadline to finish its maps was Monday. They missed it. It's going to the Idaho Supreme Court, which could kick it back to the commission (with clarification on some issues) or draw it themselves.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

This is turning into a bit of a trainwreck.

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[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

I can't imagine that it's the Congressional map that's holding them up. All they need to do is put a few more Boise precincts in ID-2. What's the holdup?