Gordon Brown bows out earlier - A Timeline

[Phony Moderate]

October 25th 2009:

With his party around 15 points behind the Conservatives in the polls, his personal ratings in the 20's, a weak economy, and deteriorating health, Gordon Brown announces his decision to stand down as Labour Leader and Prime Minister. "It's the best thing for my family, my party and my country" he says. He will stay on until a new leader is elected at the end of January.



YouGov Poll (Conducted October 26th-28th, 1,543 registered voters)

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October 28th 2009:

Alistair Darling says he has "no plans whatsoever" to stand for the Labour Leadership.



October 30th 2009:

Left-wing MP John McDonnell is the first to announce his candidacy for the Labour Leadership, but says the "system to elect Labour leaders is biased".



November 2nd 2009:

Foriegn Secretary David Miliband announces his candidacy. He is considered the heavy favorite with the bookmakers and most pundits to win.



November 4th 2009:

Ed Balls announces that he will not stand, and that he will nominate David Miliband.

November 5th 2009:

Jack Straw and Ed Miliband both announce that they will not stand. Ed endorses his brother, but Straw says he will wait until the nominating process opens to decide who to support. The press speculates whether another member of the cabinet will enter the race as a "Stop Miliband" candidate.

November 7th 2009:

The day before the nominating process is set to open, Health Secretary Andy Burnham announces his candidacy.



November 11th 2009:

Nomination results:

(44 are needed to get on ballot)

David Miliband - 204 (Notable MP's nominating - Alistair Darling, Jack Straw, Ed Balls, Alan Johnson, Yvette Cooper, Charles Clarke, Jacqui Smith)
Andy Burnham - 112 (Notable MP's nominating - Harriet Harman, Peter Hain, Jon Cruddas, David Blunkett, John Prescott)
John McDonnell - 28 (Notable MP's nominating - Diane Abbott, Dennis Skinner, Jeremy Corbyn, Michael Meacher)

Prime Minister Gordon Brown did not nominate any candidate.

November 12th 2009:

The by-election in Glasgow North East to fill former Speaker Michael Martin's seat is held. Labour hold the seat with a majority of 10,565.

[tpfkaw]

Would David Miliband really run for leadership?  Since it's essentially a done deal at this point that Labour will lose the next election (and therefore the next leader will have to resign), I'd think that the leadership election would only attract B-listers, if not C-listers.

[Phony Moderate]

November 21st 2009:

Over the past few weeks, horrendous floods have affected many parts of the UK. Prime Minister Gordon Brown visits Cumbria Police headquarters, near Penrith, to meet members of the emergency services before travelling to Cockermouth where he meets people who have been evacuated from their homes. He pledges that an additional £75m will be made available in aid for the affected areas.

ICM Poll:

Do you approve or disapprove of the government's response to the floods?

Approve - 57%
Disapprove - 24%
Unsure - 19%

Who do you intend to vote for at the next General Election?

Conservatives - 41% (-1)
Labour - 31% (+2)
Liberal Democrats - 20% (+1)

7th December 2009:

The Ministry of Defence announces the death in Afghanistan of a soldier from 1st Battalion The Royal Anglian Regiment, taking the total number of British troops killed there in 2009 to 100 and the total number of British soldiers killed in Afghanistan since the conflict began (October 2001) to 237.

On the Labour Leadership election market on Intrade, David Miliband falls from 75.0 to 65.0. Andy Burnham has by now positioned himself as a 'soft-left' candidate. He has called the war in Iraq "a mistake", and says that Labour needs to do "a lot more to protect the working-class."

December 21st 2009:

List of notable endorsements for the Labour Leadership candidates:

David Miliband:

The Guardian
The Daily Mirror
Communication Workers Union
Unite the Union
Unison
Peter Mandelson
Roy Hattersley
Eddie Izzard
Sir Alex Ferguson

Andy Burnham:

Compass
Young Fabians
National Union of Rail, Maritime and Transport Workers
General, Municipal, Boilermakers and Allied Trade Union
Tony Benn
Michael Foot
Neil Kinnock
Billy Bragg
Stephen Fry
Jo Brand

December 23rd 2009:

YouGov Leadership Leadership result projection:

David Miliband - 58%
Andy Burnham - 42%

[Phony Moderate]

Would David Miliband really run for leadership?  Since it's essentially a done deal at this point that Labour will lose the next election (and therefore the next leader will have to resign), I'd think that the leadership election would only attract B-listers, if not C-listers.

With Brown in charge, yes. However, the governing party almost always gets a decent poll bounce when it elects a new leader (see 2007 and 1990). I don't think this would be an exception, since there was a pretty strong "anyone but Brown" sentiment at that point. It's possible that under Miliband, Labour could have emerged as the largest party, since he wouldn't have got as much criticism for the economic situation as, say, Darling. And even if they didn't, I doubt that he would have been ousted as leader, unless Labour suffered a heavy defeat, which would have been highly unlikely. And when Cameron brings up Labour's economic record at PMQs, he could claim that he didn't really agree with Brown's (unpopular) economic policies, and he'd probably get away with it to an extent.

[Phony Moderate]

January 3rd 2010:

Prime Minister Gordon Brown announces that full body scanners will be introduced at UK airports following the failed attack on Northwest Airlines Flight 253 on 25 December 2009.



January 7th 2010:

A Question Time debate between David Miliband and Andy Burnham is held. Burnham criticises Miliband for his "Blairism" and accuses hi of being "out of touch with ordinary people". Miliband says that Labour will lose the next election if it becomes a party of the Radical Left.

YouGov Poll:

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January 12th 2010:

Alastair Campbell, former government advisor, interviewed by the Chilcot Inquiry, says he is prepared to defend "every word" of the September 2002 dossier on Iraq's supposed weapons of mass destruction which led to the invasion of Iraq.

ICM Poll:

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January 20th 2010:

Unemployment falls by 50,000, the first dip in nearly two years, which shocks many experts. Gordon Brown takes part in his last PMQs as Prime Minister. He defends his government's record, saying "The latest figures show that we are on the road to recovery. A Conservative Government would send this country back into recession."



January 21st 2010:

The first day of a three-day Labour Leadership Conference. Speakers include Ed Balls, Eddie Izzard, Peter Mandelson, and Harriet Harman.

January 22nd 2010:

Gordon Brown makes his farewell speech as Labour Leader and Prime Minister.



Ipsos-Mori Poll:

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January 23rd 2011:

The votes have been counted....

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[/b]

[You kip if you want to...]

I clearly approve of a Dave Vs Dave election in the May! Carry on

Brown's exit seems too quiet, how did Cameron and Clegg react?

[Phony Moderate]

January 25th 2010:

Gordon Brown and his family leave Downing Street for the last time, and they go to Buckingham Palace to return the seals of office.



The Conservative Leader David Cameron says that while he and Gordon Brown have many differences, he recogonizes that he is basically a good man, and wishes him the best in his future endeavors. The Liberal Democrats' Leader Nick Clegg pays a similar tribute.

Soon after, David Miliband officially accepts Her Majesty's invitation to form a government, and heads to Downing Street. Before going in the door of Number 10 for the first time as Prime Minister, he makes a live televised address to the nation, talking about the need for social justice, national unity, and the start of a bright new era in British politics.



New Cabinet

With a General Election near, Prime Minister Miliband does conduct a full cabinet reshuffle. He appoints Alan Johnson to his old position as Foreign Secretary. Yvette Cooper becomes the new Home Secretary, while current Deputy Leader Harriet Harman receives another position - Secretary of State for Work and Pensions.

January 26th 2010:

Official figures show that the UK's economy grew by 0.3% in the last three months, meaning that the country is finally out of recession.

January 27th 2010:

David Miliband attends his first PMQs as Prime Minister. He rips into the opposition, saying that "the latest figures show that you can only be sure of an economic recovery with Labour."

January 28th 2010:

YouGov Poll:

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[Phony Moderate]

January 29th 2010:

Former Prime Minister Tony Blair appears at the Chilcot Inquiry, and strongly defends his decision to take the UK into war against Iraq.



YouGov Poll:

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February 2nd 2010:

Good morning. This is BBC News at 9:AM with me Hugh Edwards. Movements in and around Downing Street within the past 24 hours or so suggest that David Miliband will arrive here at Buckingham Palace shortly to ask for the Queen's permission for a dissolution of Parliament. We do not yet fully know what the exact date of the General Election will be.



(A couple of hours later)

Good morning. A short while ago, I asked Her Majesty the Queen for a dissou lition of Parliament, and a General Election on March 4th. She kindly accepted.............I believe that this government, being only a few days old, needs a mandate as soon as possible to justify itself...........I kindly ask the people of this country to give us that mandate...........Thank you very much.



Feburary 5th:

ICM Poll:

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It is clear that no televised debates will take place during this campaign. The parties could not come to an agreement on a format.

Many pundits are now saying that this election could be quite similar to 1979. A popular Prime Minister, leading an unpopular governing party.

Feburary 10th 2010:

The Conservatives run their first party election broadcast. It mainly criticises Labour for their economic record. It also warns against a hung parliament, saying "Do you really want politicians behind closed doors making all kinds of dodgey deals?"

Feburary 11th 2010:

Labour responds with it's own party election broadcast. David Miliband appears through most of it, saying that only labour can provide a government "for the people, and not a government for corporate interests.".

Feburary 12th 2010:

In their first party election broadcast, the Liberal Democrats attack the two main parties for "being out of touch, corrupt, and irresponsible."

Feburary 15th 2010:

The Guardian endorses Labour. Some had speculated that it might switch to the Liberal Democrats.

Feburary 18th 2010:

Prime Minsiter David Miliband is confronted by an angry woman in Manchester. She accuses him of "being a Tory in disguise" and criticises Labour's policies on tuition fees.

Feburary 20th 2010:

ComRes Poll:

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This is the Conservatives' biggest lead of the campaign so far. Many people feel that David Miliband looks a lot weaker as a leader than he did just a couple of weeks ago. His reaction to the angry woman in Manchester, where he had a wry smile on his face throughout the conversation, didn't help. His personal ratings have dropped from 48% to 40%, according to ICM. The Conservatives meanwhile have run a camapign with moderate rhetoric, accusing Labour of "underfunding our public services" while "spending too much on foreign aid". David Cameron now leads David Miliband by 37% to 34% on "Who would make the better Prime Minister". The Liberal Democrats campaign has been very low key. The are focusing on the South West and the South East, hoping to take seats from the Conservatives to force a hung parliament.

Feburary 24th 2010:

David Miliband makes a speech in Newcastle-upon-Tyne.

I realise that Labour has let down the people of this country on more than one occasion over the past 13 years. I realise that we have lost a great deal of touch with the working-class. If we are re-elected however, I sincerely promise that we will work harder to stand up for the ordinary people of this nation, whether it be through the NHS, education, transport, you name it. My message to the people is this: If you do choose to re-elect us, and if in a few years' time you feel that we haven't stood up for you, then by all means, do not re-elect us again.

ComRes Poll:

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[You kip if you want to...]

Reminds me a tiny bit of Australia IRL 2010.

[Phony Moderate]

Reminds me a tiny bit of Australia IRL 2010.

Well, at least Brown was allowed to step down voluntarily.

[Phony Moderate]

Feburary 27th 2010:

ICM conducts a mega-poll in marginal Labour-held seats. The poll shows a swing of 5.7% from Labour to the Conservatives, probably not enough for a Conservative majority, but enough for them to be the largest party in a hung parliament.

March 1st 2010:

The Conservatives run their final party election broadcast of the campaign. It features only David Cameron, who says that Britain "cannot afford five more years of Labour", and that a Conservative government would "get the country back on track".

March 2nd 2010:

Labour runs it's last party election broadcast of the campaign. However, it doesn't just feature David Miliband, but also members of the British public, telling the viewers why they should vote Labour on Thursday.

March 3rd 2010:

The Liberal Democrats run their last party election broadcast of the campaign. It features Nick Clegg, who is seen surrounded by pieces of paper that are flying all over the place.

Final Voting Intention Polls:

YouGov:

Conservatives - 36%
Labour - 33%
Liberal Demcorats - 21%

ICM: 

Conservatives - 37%
Labour - 32%
Liberal Democrats - 20%

ComRes:

Conservatives - 37%
Labour - 31%
Liberal Democrats - 20%

Angus Reid:

Conservatives - 40%
Labour - 29%
Liberal Demcorats - 22%

Populus:

Conservatives - 38%
Labour - 32%
Liberal Democrats - 19%

Ipsos-MORI:

Conservatives - 37%
Labour - 34%
Liberal Democrats - 19%

March 4th 2010:



DD: Hello, I'm David Dimbleby, and welcome to the BBC's election night coverage. Tonight, we will find out the answers to the questions that the nation have been asking: Can Labour, with a new leader, hold on to power after 13 years in government? Has David Cameron reshaped the Conservative Party enough to win over the voters of this country? Can the Liberal Democrats under Nick Clegg finally make a breakthrough? We, to help us answer those questions, we have got our political editor Nick Robinson, our statistics guru Jeremy Vine, Jeremy Paxman, who will be interviewing the winners and the losers, and Emily Maitlis and Peter Kellner, who will be showing us how the political map of Britain has changed.

In a few seconds time, we will get our first clue of what's happened - the exit poll. Ipsos-Mori went to many polling stations around the country to conduct this. And here it is....


We are predicting a hung parliament, with Labour as the largest party. We think that Labour will have 289 seats, short by 37 of an overall majority, the Conservatives 286 seats, and the Liberal Democrats 45 seats.

What do you make of it Nick?

NR: Well, this is a bit of a suprise to me, and to most people I suspect. Very few people were predicting that Labour would have the most seats....of course they still may not....but if this exit poll is correct, then I think we are going to have another general election quite soon.

[You kip if you want to...]

Go Labour!

[redcommander]

I guess 2015 will be the Tories comeback unless of course the shy Tory factor comes back into play with the results.

[You kip if you want to...]

If the exit poll comes out, it'll be interesting to see what happens to Cameron. The Tories hate a loser.

[Phony Moderate]

DD: And we are about to get our first result from Houghton and Sunderland South.

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Labour HOLD



(Try to ignore the box at the top left-hand corner )

That is a majority of 12,847 for Labour. And it represents a swing from Labour to the Conservatives of 7.2%. Jeremy Vine, make do you make of that?

JV: Well, if that were repeated across the country, then the Conservatives would have an overall majority. However, it's just one result. We need a result from a marginal Labour-Conservative seat to get a better clue of what's going on.

DD: Well, David Cameron had talked about Sunderland Central being the Tories' "wildcard", and we should be getting the result from there soon. But the Tories need a swing of something like 13%-14% to take that seat.

And I think we can now get the result from Washington and Sunderland West.

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Labour HOLD

A majority of 13,111 for Labour, and a swing from Labour to the Conservatives of 6.3%.

(A few minutes later)

And now the result for Sunderland Central.

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Labour HOLD

A good result for Labour, all things considered. Thier majority is 7,422, down by only 2,501. And the swing from Labour to the Conservatives is 4.7%.

JV: Well, that's the smallest swing against Labour so far. But we still haven't had a true marginal seat.

[You kip if you want to...]

This is really good, keep it up!

[Phony Moderate]

This is really good, keep it up!

Thanks. Just to note that I'm using UK-Elect to work out these results, and the notional figures that are displayed are different to those that the BBC used in real life.

[Phony Moderate]

DD: Let's go now to Birmingham, where I think we can get a declaration from Birmingham Edgbaston. This will be the first marginal seat to declare. Labour's Gisela Stuart is defending a majority of just over 2,000.

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Labour HOLD



Well....Gisela Stuart has not only held on, but also increased her majority to 2,522. There was a swing from the Conservatives to Labour of 0.3%. Nick, this is quite significant, isn't it?

NR: It is indeed David. This is very bad news for the Conservatives. However, Gisela Stuart is a popular MP, so her personal vote may have helped her hold on here.

[Lief 🗽]

March 3rd 2010:

The Liberal Democrats run their last party election broadcast of the campaign. It features Nick Clegg, who is seen surrounded by pieces of paper that are flying all over the place.

rofl

Really good, though I hope for you own sanity you're not going to through all 650 seats...

[Phony Moderate]

March 3rd 2010:

The Liberal Democrats run their last party election broadcast of the campaign. It features Nick Clegg, who is seen surrounded by pieces of paper that are flying all over the place.

rofl

Really good, though I hope for you own sanity you're not going to through all 650 seats...

Not in detail, no.

[Phony Moderate]

DD: Jeremy Paxman is now joined by Peter Mandelson, Theresa May and Simon Hughes.

West Tyrone - Sinn Fein HOLD

JP: Yes, thanks David. Peter Mandelson, assuming this exit poll is correct, what are the Labour Party's plans? Are you going to continue as a minority government, or will you form some sort of pact with the Liberal Democrats?

PM: Well, first of all, the exit poll may not be correct. It wasn't in 1992 if I recall. And it's far too early to speculate what will happen if it is correct. I think we ran a good campaign, and I think we are set for a good result, considering that we have been in power for 13 years.

Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath - Labour HOLD

JP: Ok, back to David.

DD: I think Nick has been hearing some interesting rumours over Twitter.

NR: Yes I have David. The Liberal Democrats are virtually conceding Oldham East and Saddleworth, where they had been hoping to oust Phil Woolas, the Immigration Minister. Apparently Chris Huhne could be in trouble in his seat of Eastleigh, and I hearing that there's a recount in Kingswood, where the Tories need a swing over just over 6.4% to take the seat from Roger Berry.

Hastings and Rye - Conservative GAIN from Labour

DD: Ok, we have now got the first gain of the night, in Hastings and Rye. The Labour MP Michael Foster has been defeated by the Conservatives' Amber Rudd. The Conservatives' majority is 347, and the swing to them is 1.6%. Nick, any comments on that?

NR: The Conservatives were I suspect hoping to take this seat far more easily. Labour had a 2,560 majority there in 1997 with around 34% of the vote - tonight they got around 39% of the vote.