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| | |-+  Overrepresented and underrepresented areas in Congress
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Author Topic: Overrepresented and underrepresented areas in Congress  (Read 2286 times)
krazen1211
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« on: May 18, 2011, 04:08:25 pm »
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What areas of the United States have enough population to form their own district, but are effectively cracked?

And what areas have disproportionate influence despite their small, and declining populations, due to legacy Congressman and careful redistricting?

Some examples:

Category A:

1. Beaumont/Port Arthur - ~600k people, cracked between 2 districts, and represented by 2 members of the Houston suburbs.

2. Reading PA metro area - Also about 500+k people, cracked between several districts.

3. Akron, Ohio metro area - 700k people, ditto


Category B:

1. St. Louis -  ~350k people, and 2 Congressional districts. Recently rectified.

2. Detroit - Ditto. 600k Detroit blacks get 2 Congressional districts.



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Dgov
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« Reply #1 on: May 18, 2011, 06:45:28 pm »
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over-rep: Baltimore + Suburbs--about 2 districts worth of population and 4 incumbents.

Under-Rep: Tarrant County Texas, with about 3 Districts worth of population and only 1 Representative.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #2 on: May 18, 2011, 09:11:30 pm »
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over-rep: Baltimore + Suburbs--about 2 districts worth of population and 4 incumbents.

Under-Rep: Tarrant County Texas, with about 3 Districts worth of population and only 1 Representative.

I've heard conflicting info on that. Granger is from Ft. Worth. Not sure if Joe Barton is from Arlington or Johnson County. If its the latter, a new GOP Tarrant County district will be drawn this cycle.
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JacobNC
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« Reply #3 on: May 18, 2011, 10:56:32 pm »
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Salt Lake City, UT - worth 1 democratic district, but it's split up into three heavily republican districts.
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Dgov
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« Reply #4 on: May 18, 2011, 11:01:52 pm »
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over-rep: Baltimore + Suburbs--about 2 districts worth of population and 4 incumbents.

Under-Rep: Tarrant County Texas, with about 3 Districts worth of population and only 1 Representative.

I've heard conflicting info on that. Granger is from Ft. Worth. Not sure if Joe Barton is from Arlington or Johnson County. If its the latter, a new GOP Tarrant County district will be drawn this cycle.

He's from Ennis, which is in Ellis County.  Johnson COunty is in TX-17, which is Represented by Bill Flores.

Although an Arlington-Johnson County CD is probably a good creation for the GOP, now that they don't need the Dallas Burbs in the 17th to beat Edwards.
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Snowguy716
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« Reply #5 on: May 18, 2011, 11:47:27 pm »
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What areas of the United States have enough population to form their own district, but are effectively cracked?

And what areas have disproportionate influence despite their small, and declining populations, due to legacy Congressman and careful redistricting?

Some examples:

Category A:

1. Beaumont/Port Arthur - ~600k people, cracked between 2 districts, and represented by 2 members of the Houston suburbs.

2. Reading PA metro area - Also about 500+k people, cracked between several districts.

3. Akron, Ohio metro area - 700k people, ditto


Category B:

1. St. Louis -  ~350k people, and 2 Congressional districts. Recently rectified.

2. Detroit - Ditto. 600k Detroit blacks get 2 Congressional districts.




The entire state of Texas is overrepresented in congress because illegal immigrants are counted by the census... but they are not citizens and cannot vote.

Sometimes I think house representation should be doled out based on the average number of voters in the past two presidential elections.  You'd see the south's representation plummet while it rose by a ton in the upper midwest and New England.
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« Reply #6 on: May 19, 2011, 12:47:30 am »
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I suspect the winner is the suburbs of Cook County.

Or should I say, the loser is the suburbs of Cook County?
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« Reply #7 on: May 19, 2011, 01:28:56 am »
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Okay, I decided to test this with the 201 US Census Numbers and 2008 election (via NYT website), and here are the Results, compared to the 2010 house district allotment:

Washington: -1
Oregon: + 1
California: -11 (Yes, 11)
Nevada: -1
Arizona: -2
Utah: -1
Montana: +1
Colorado: + 1
Texas: -8
Minnesota: +2
Iowa: +1
Missouri: +2
Louisiana: +1
Wisconsin: +2
Michigan: +3
Ohio: +2
Georgia: -1
North Carolina: +2
Florida: +1
Virginia: +2
West Virginia: -1
Maryland: +1
Pennsylvania: +2
New York: -3
Massachusetts: +1
Maine: +1
Connecticut: +1

And one additional one from Rounding that would probably go to New Hampshire.

And, for the Obama/McCain EVs, the result would have been + 10 Obama from the 2010 Numbers, or +4 form the 2000 Numbers.  Mostly a Shift from Texas and California back to the Midwest.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #8 on: May 19, 2011, 07:35:36 am »
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I suspect the winner is the suburbs of Cook County.

Or should I say, the loser is the suburbs of Cook County?

Probably the loser. Lake is cracked, Will is cracked. Dupage will likely have its 1 rep though.

Cook/Chicago is overrepresented.
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« Reply #9 on: May 19, 2011, 09:45:55 am »
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MA: Boston + inner suburbs over-represented; southeastern Mass and Cape underrepresented. Crazy that reps from Sharon, Newton, Worcester, and Southie represent the whole area.

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« Reply #10 on: May 19, 2011, 11:41:32 am »
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lol @ the focus on black districts. Blacks sure are overrepresented, what with their ~7%  of House seats and 0% of Senate seats! Roll Eyes
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krazen1211
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« Reply #11 on: May 19, 2011, 03:30:35 pm »
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Okay, I decided to test this with the 201 US Census Numbers and 2008 election (via NYT website), and here are the Results, compared to the 2010 house district allotment:

And, for the Obama/McCain EVs, the result would have been + 10 Obama from the 2010 Numbers, or +4 form the 2000 Numbers.  Mostly a Shift from Texas and California back to the Midwest.


Interesting results.

Amongst larger states:

New York is pretty fairly allocated, since they don't connect NYC to other parts of the state more than once.

California has an extra seat I believe in the Bay Area for now.

Roanoke, VA I believe has 2 reps that reside in districts that stretch long distances north and west.
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Dgov
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« Reply #12 on: May 19, 2011, 03:34:36 pm »
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Okay, I decided to test this with the 201 US Census Numbers and 2008 election (via NYT website), and here are the Results, compared to the 2010 house district allotment:

And, for the Obama/McCain EVs, the result would have been + 10 Obama from the 2010 Numbers, or +4 form the 2000 Numbers.  Mostly a Shift from Texas and California back to the Midwest.


Interesting results.

Amongst larger states:

New York is pretty fairly allocated, since they don't connect NYC to other parts of the state more than once.

California has an extra seat I believe in the Bay Area for now.

Roanoke, VA I believe has 2 reps that reside in districts that stretch long distances north and west.

Roanoke itself only has 1 (Bob Goode), but nearby Salem has one.

Speaking of Virginia though, the Tidewater region has 4 districts when it only deserves 2.5, and Rural North Virginia has none when it deserves 1.5.  The region is cracked between the 1st, 6th, 7th, and 10th in order to make all of them more Republican
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jimrtex
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« Reply #13 on: May 19, 2011, 09:00:04 pm »
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What areas of the United States have enough population to form their own district, but are effectively cracked?

And what areas have disproportionate influence despite their small, and declining populations, due to legacy Congressman and careful redistricting?

Some examples:

Category A:

1. Beaumont/Port Arthur - ~600k people, cracked between 2 districts, and represented by 2 members of the Houston suburbs.
Not even 400K.  The people further north wouldn't want to be in a Beaumont dominated district.
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #14 on: May 19, 2011, 10:40:54 pm »
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lol @ the focus on black districts. Blacks sure are overrepresented, what with their ~7%  of House seats and 0% of Senate seats! Roll Eyes

Blacks as a whole are underrepresented, sure. But there are a few areas in which blacks are overrepresented.
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« Reply #15 on: August 09, 2011, 11:36:37 am »
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The Orthodox Jewish areas of Flatbush in Brooklyn that are divided in to 5 Congressional districts (8, 9, 10, 11, and 13) this has to be a gerrymandering record (you can also add a few ED's from the next door Orthodox Jewish neighborhood of Borough Park which has some of the 12th in it)
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« Reply #16 on: August 09, 2011, 12:26:12 pm »
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Once the 2012 redistricting goes into effect, Boston will have a lopsided representation in Congress. Of the state's 9 congressional districts, 4 congressman will be elected from either Boston or a town immediately bordering it. A fifth will live in Medford, which is maybe a 2-minute drive from Boston on I-93.

There will be absolutely no representation for Metrowest (currently split between 5 districts) or any community south of Boston (split into 4).
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« Reply #17 on: August 09, 2011, 04:26:11 pm »
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Underrepresented

Austin
Montana
Columbus

Overrepresented

Manhattan
Rhode Island
Wyoming
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« Reply #18 on: August 10, 2011, 09:09:28 am »
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Chicago will continue to have, I think, 5 reps after this election, which is a sizable overrepresentation. Unless Gutierrez or Quigley lives in a suburb.

The metro Twin Cities have the same problem Boston has... both MN-6 and MN-8 have sizable non-metro populations represented by a Republican very close to the cities themselves at one extreme of the district. But that MN-8 problem may be cleared up soon.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #19 on: August 10, 2011, 09:20:41 am »
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Middlesex/Mercer County deserves 2 Dem reps but has 1.
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« Reply #20 on: August 10, 2011, 09:53:18 am »
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Middlesex/Mercer County deserves 2 Dem reps but has 1.

Middlesex in particular is underrepresented at the expense of Monmouth and Ocean.

And I think you mean Middlesex/Union. Mercer County of course has two representatives already (Holt and Smith), which makes it overrepresented.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #21 on: August 10, 2011, 11:27:39 am »
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Middlesex/Mercer County deserves 2 Dem reps but has 1.

Middlesex in particular is underrepresented at the expense of Monmouth and Ocean.

And I think you mean Middlesex/Union. Mercer County of course has two representatives already (Holt and Smith), which makes it overrepresented.

Yes, that would be correct. Although I don't think Ocean has a rep, unless you could Runyan's likely vacation home.
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« Reply #22 on: August 10, 2011, 12:00:05 pm »
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If we're talking about New Jersey, the Union/Middlesex area is under-represented. You could make an argument that, in a "logical draw" based on communities of interest, the area would have its own seat. Middlesex specifically got the shaft in the 1990 re-draw when New Jersey last lost a seat -- the Middlesex district wound up being the one eliminated (at the expense of shoring up Pallone, who had a marginal district in the 1980s). Ocean County is sort of slighted by virtue of being split between two CDs.

There's only one congressman from Monmouth, and that's Frank Pallone. But he hardly represents any of it -- it's pretty diluted between Smith, Pallone, and Holt. There are some really weird lines at play in NJ. You can't quite say Monmouth is underrepresented, but I doubt Pallone truly acts like he's representing the county.

Mercer is overrepresented, I guess, at the expense of Middlesex.
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