MN: Star Tribune poll shows that Minnesota voters oppose Gay Marriage ban

[Tender Branson]

"Please tell me if you would favor or oppose amending the Minnesota constitution to ban same-sex marriage."

39% Favor
55% Oppose

Source:

Star Tribune Minnesota Poll, 806 Minnesota adults, May 2-5. Sampling error +/-4.7 percentage points.

http://www.startribune.com/politics/121725399.html

http://www.startribune.com/politics/statelocal/121750534.html

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Doesn't an MoE of 4.7% seem high for a sample of 806?

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

I'm also assuming this is of registered voters?  I didn't see anything about likely voters mentioned.

Still, if a proposition were on the ballot, my money would be on it failing.

[Tender Branson]

It just says:

"Today's Star Tribune Minnesota Poll findings are based on 565 land-line and 241 cellphone interviews conducted May 2-5 with a representative sample of Minnesota adults. Interviews were conducted under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates International. Results of a poll based on 806 interviews will vary by no more than 4.7 percentage points, plus or minus, from the overall population 95 times out of 100.

The self-identified party affiliation of the random sample is 33 percent Democrat, 23 percent Republican and 37 percent independent. The remaining 7 percent said they were members of another party, no party or declined to answer."

http://www.startribune.com/local/121750619.html

[Brittain33]

As much as I'd love to believe this, Star-Tribune is notorious for polls that are very promising for Dems--or, to be more specific (IIRC), to understate conservative/Republican numbers.

Am I wrong?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Doesn't an MoE of 4.7% seem high for a sample of 806?

I ran the numbers myself and got a MoE of 3.45%.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

As much as I'd love to believe this, Star-Tribune is notorious for polls that are very promising for Dems--or, to be more specific (IIRC), to understate conservative/Republican numbers.

Am I wrong?

That's true yes. But rarely by numbers wider than the margin here.

Last 2010 poll: Dayton +7
Last 2008 Senate poll: Franken +4
Last 2008 Presidential poll: Obama +11 (actually that one was pretty accurate)

[TJ in Oregon]

That's true yes. But rarely by numbers wider than the margin here.

Last 2010 poll: Dayton +7
Last 2008 Senate poll: Franken +4
Last 2008 Presidential poll: Obama +11 (actually that one was pretty accurate)

I wonder if there is any difference between the accuracy of polling in a race with candidates and in a ballot initiative? I remember reading a piece a few years ago (I can't remember where) about Rasmussen Reports that suggested its issue polling was far worse than its polling of candidates (of course in 2010 the latter proved to be rather awful as well).

[Brittain33]

I wonder if there is any difference between the accuracy of polling in a race with candidates and in a ballot initiative? I remember reading a piece a few years ago (I can't remember where) about Rasmussen Reports that suggested its issue polling was far worse than its polling of candidates (of course in 2010 the latter proved to be rather awful as well).

Oh, I think there must be. The same way there is a difference between primary polling and general election polling... most voters in a general election poll are committed to a party and won't change, so the potential for swings is constained. Voters in a primary could choose among any candidates, and with a referendum, not only do you have choices somewhat disconnected from parties, but often people don't even understand the issue at stake. I can guarantee that some people answering this question gave the exact opposite of what they meant to say because of the wording.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So the map would probably look something like this:

[Tender Branson]

Minnesota voters to decide on gay marriage ban

ST. PAUL, Minn. (AP) — The Minnesota House has signed off on a proposed constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage, meaning voters will decide the issue in 2012.

After nearly six hours of emotional debate, the House voted 70-62 to approve the plan late Saturday.

State law already prohibits gay marriage, but supporters of the proposed amendment say it's necessary to prevent judges or future lawmakers from making it legal in Minnesota. Critics say it's divisive and puts discrimination in the state Constitution.

The amendment would define marriage as only between a man and a woman.

The state Senate already passed the measure. Gov. Mark Dayton has said he'll fight the amendment, but he has no power to block it.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2011-05-22-minnesota-gay-marriage-ban_n.htm