2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, PEI, and Newfoundland all vote in the fall of this year (either October or November) and I thought it might be reasonable to open a thread on it.

Edit - And that's it folks. After tonight's Sask election, this thread will go unused.

[DL]

Possibly BC as well.

[Χahar]

I believe that each province gets its own thread.

[Sibboleth]

I believe that each province gets its own thread.

Quite so.

[Holmes]

Bye bye, Ontario Liberals. It probably pleases the Tories that the seats the NDP will pick up are all Liberal ones. Tentatively, anyway.

I wonder if any Liberal -> NDP voters from the federal election will remain so in October. I'm sure the Liberal -> Tory voters are more likely to stay loyal to the Conservatives, especially with McGuinty as leader. Also, if Rocco Rossi is elected, I will puke.

[Hashemite]

Tim Hudak as Premier is an horrible thought. Harpo + Hudak.

[Holmes]

Tim Hudak as Premier is an horrible thought. Harpo + Hudak.

Ontario seems to be going through quite some Conservative phase, no? Definitely doesn't help that most of Southern Ontario has aligned itself with the Tories indefinitely.

[DL]

That remains to be seen. I remember how in 1984 the federal Tories under Mulroney won a crushing majority and took 3/4 of the seats in Ontario - then eight months later the provincial Tories lost power in Ontario for the first time in 42 years!

[Hatman]

I still say, Hudak, "who dat"? They picked the least well known of the leadership candidates.

Anyways, he has been getting lots of press lately actually. Unfortunately, the NDP hasn't (provincially), but it's too early to look into this too much.

[Nichlemn]

Based on the most recent polling, all but PEI appear poised to go PC (or Sask Party, the de facto PC).

[trebor204]

NWT also has an election in October (same day as PEI)


Monday Oct 3rd - PEI/NWT (1st Mon/Oct)
Tuesday, Oct 4th - MAN (1st Tues/Oct)
Thur, Oct 6th (1st Thur/Oct)
Tuesday, Oct 11th - NFLD (2nd Tues/Oct)
Monday, Nov 7th - SASK (1st Mon/NOV)


In 2015, these provinces will have to compete with the next federal election on Oct 19, 2015 (3rd Monday in October). If another majoirity gov't the process will repeat in 2019.

It might be an idea to have a 4 year electon calendar like in USA.

Year 1 - Federal Election
Year 2 - Local Elections (some of the provinces)
Year 3 - Provincal Elections
Year 4 - Local Electionss (rest of the provinces)

The provincal and local elections do not have to be on same day.

[Nichlemn]

NWT also has an election in October (same day as PEI)


Monday Oct 3rd - PEI/NWT (1st Mon/Oct)
Tuesday, Oct 4th - MAN (1st Tues/Oct)
Thur, Oct 6th (1st Thur/Oct)
Tuesday, Oct 11th - NFLD (2nd Tues/Oct)
Monday, Nov 7th - SASK (1st Mon/NOV)


In 2015, these provinces will have to compete with the next federal election on Oct 19, 2015 (3rd Monday in October). If another majoirity gov't the process will repeat in 2019.

It might be an idea to have a 4 year electon calendar like in USA.

Year 1 - Federal Election
Year 2 - Local Elections (some of the provinces)
Year 3 - Provincal Elections
Year 4 - Local Electionss (rest of the provinces)

The provincal and local elections do not have to be on same day.

The problem is that in the parliamentary system, legislatures can be dissolved early even with fixed election dates (as we've seen recently in federal elections).

There are a few ways to mitigate this. The first is to have US-style legislatures that cannot have early elections. If a government falls, a new one must be appointed.

The second is to have "by-elections", similar to how Utah has special gubernatorial elections. If a government falls and a new election is held, the new term only runs until the last one would have ended.

The third (and my preferred choice) is to have "equilibrium-seeking" elections. If a new election is held more than two years before the original fixed date, the new term runs until that date like a by-election. If a new election is held less than two years before the original fixed date, the new term runs until that date plus 4 years. This stops a fixed term from being shorter than 2 years or longer than 6 years.

[Hatman]

Wow, we're going to have fun that week...

[Hashemite]

Anybody notice how 2015 is going to be a super-election year with federal elections and a bunch of fixed-date provincials?

Also, Yukon last voted in 2006 so it's supposed to go to the polls this year.

[Hatman]

I plan on starting up my blog for the provincial election

First post: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/05/ontario-election-2011.html

If anyone else would like to contribute, maybe turn it into a Canadian version of this site, by all means!

[mileslunn]

It should be interesting.  BC is a wildcard, although unlike Campbell, Clark is actually more popular than her party.  Campbell dragged down his party support, while Clark helps it.  As for other provinces, here are my predictions

Manitoba - Tight race, could go either NDP or Progressive Conservative

Ontario - Favours the PCs, but go Liberal if Hudak makes a major blunder.

PEI - Liberal landslide, possibly a complete sweep

Newfoundland & Labrador - PC majority although probably with fewer seats since Kathy Dunderdale doesn't have the same popularity as Danny Williams did.

Yukon - Don't know enough to predict here.

BC - If there is an election, I would give a slight edge to the BC Liberals, although the big wildcard is the BC Conservatives.  If they do well, then the NDP will win, otherwise a BC Liberal win.  I predict whatever the results are the BC Liberals + BC Conservatives will beat BC NDP + BC Green Party

[King of Kensington]

It should be interesting.  BC is a wildcard, although unlike Campbell, Clark is actually more popular than her party.  Campbell dragged down his party support, while Clark helps it.  As for other provinces, here are my predictions.

Christy Clark doesn't seem particularly formidable at the moment.  She barely squeaked it out in the by-election in Vancouver-Point Grey in what was supposed to be a cakewalk, and a few days it was reported she was considering moving over to a super-safe Liberal riding.

[mileslunn]

It should be interesting.  BC is a wildcard, although unlike Campbell, Clark is actually more popular than her party.  Campbell dragged down his party support, while Clark helps it.  As for other provinces, here are my predictions.

Christy Clark doesn't seem particularly formidable at the moment.  She barely squeaked it out in the by-election in Vancouver-Point Grey in what was supposed to be a cakewalk, and a few days it was reported she was considering moving over to a super-safe Liberal riding.

Asides from 2001, Campbell never won Vancouver-Point Grey by large margins and she got 49% which is more than what Campbell got in 2005 and 1996 although 1% less than 2009.

[Hatman]

Nanos has come out with their first poll since the federal election for Ontario:

*PC 41% (-3 since March)
*Lib 34% (-1)
*NDP 19% (+3)
*Grn 5% (+1)


disappointing, I'd hoped the NDP would be higher. 

[DL]

It should be interesting.  BC is a wildcard, although unlike Campbell, Clark is actually more popular than her party.  Campbell dragged down his party support, while Clark helps it.  As for other provinces, here are my predictions.

Christy Clark doesn't seem particularly formidable at the moment.  She barely squeaked it out in the by-election in Vancouver-Point Grey in what was supposed to be a cakewalk, and a few days it was reported she was considering moving over to a super-safe Liberal riding.

Asides from 2001, Campbell never won Vancouver-Point Grey by large margins and she got 49% which is more than what Campbell got in 2005 and 1996 although 1% less than 2009.

I thought that the whole rationale for picking an airhead like Christy Clarke as leader was that she was supposed to MORE popular than Campbell. The fact that she barely managed to hold the vote share that her hated predecessor had in a riding tailor-made for her kind of appeal (ie: full of ostentatious federal Liberal types) speaks volumes about her appeal.

[King of Kensington]

Not to mention Christy Clark was lucky that the BC Conservative Party did not field a candidate in the by-election.

[Holmes]

disappointing, I'd hoped the NDP would be higher. 

I guess. But Ontario's Liberal party (although in bad shape) isn't in shambles compared to its federal counterpart. And there are quite a bit of people who won't be voting for the provincial NDP party after Rae's government, so it'll be a while until they're in the minority. Not to say the NDP can't improve on that 19%, but maybe the 26% it got in the federal election may be its provincial ceiling for the time being.

[Holmes]

Just got a call from the PC Party of Ontario. It was an old lady so I acted polite. But damn, they're already calling people? Especially in northern Ontario? They must want this. lol

[Senator MaxQue]

Just got a call from the PC Party of Ontario. It was an old lady so I acted polite. But damn, they're already calling people? Especially in northern Ontario? They must want this. lol

Federal Conservatives were callng in my area since 2008 election.
And NDP started phone calls in Outremont in February.

[mileslunn]

I think the big thing which could impact the NDP is how the public perceives Hudak.  When Davis was in power, the NDP frequently got around 25% in Ontario, but under Mike Harris they languished in the low teens.  Most NDP supporters didn't have too strong a preference between Davis and the Liberals, but most hated Mike Harris with a passion and would vote Liberal simply to block him.  If Hudak is seen as a Harris clone which many would argue he is, then expect several unions to endorse the Liberals and much of the NDP support to flock to the Liberals.  Off course that might not prevent a PC win, especially if they get 44% which their federal counterparts got in which case they would still win a majority albeit with fewer seats than the federal Tories.  The NDP can make the strong case for voting for them, but the desire to block the Tories is something they have little control over.  Off course one could argue the Ontario PCs benefit more from a right wing leader than a more centrist one since despite a right wing one being hated by more, at least it motivates the base to show up and to contribute to the party.  Also it forces Ontarioans to take sides whereas with a centrist one they could do really well if they are personally liked, but do really poorly if not so well liked.