2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.

[lilTommy]

b) the NDP has reason to go and vote, its a do-or-die night, the base, even if they dislike Link like most do, still don't want the party to die off, plus they have run a well oiled policy driven campaign. No one wants a BC 2001 repeat.

People don't react that way.

I'm talking about the base, the orange blooded voters... i know people who do vote like this

Yeah, of course. They're not enough to prevent, well, anything, though.

I'm really hoping that your wrong :S  I'm hoping its more a "heavy bruising" than another "massacre" which the province seems to have a history of doing to parties

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

There is a chance the NDP won't win a single seat but that is a very small chance. The NDP needs 2 for Status, and I'm certain they'll get those 2; an in fact the NDP will probably take at least 4, but the more you push it beyond that, the less certain I become.

My projection for the NDP

Target - 6
Very Likely - between 5 and 8
Likely - btwn 4 - 11
Unlikely - 2-14
Slim - 0-19
No way - anything else

I'm also projecting that if the NDP takes less than 1/3rd of the vote, that the Greens will do better than expected, and they will do more better [sic] the worser [sic] the NDP does - to the point that if the NDP ends up with 0 seats, that this event (the NDP with 0 seats) is so unlikely (in terms of odds) that the Greens might end up with a seat (the odds of a 58 seat SKP vs 57SKP-1GPS) etc. If that makes any sense.

[Colbert]

http://img11.hostingpics.net/pics/835581canada.png (for large image)

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Colbert, you and I should trade excel files. Here's a pic from mine:

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How long till polls shut?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

either an hour or 2 hours... I should probably find out for sure (and edit the answer in)

[mileslunn]

Do you think the snowstorm will have any impact on turnout and also if so who will it impact most.  I know Saskatchewan gets snow every winter, but as in all places, the first snowfall always seems to cause the most problems as people aren't as prepared.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Do you think the snowstorm will have any impact on turnout

I love that.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

http://www.cbc.ca/video/#/News/Politics/1244504890/ID=2129372132 livestream

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

OMG its starting

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

SKP Election HQ is bathed in Green, which is their "colour", as is the SKP Leader's election HQ. I've never seen two of the three live spots be from the same party. The NDP HQ meanwhile is empty. I can see about 40 empty chairs and about 6 people who are non-media

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/skvotes2011/ mapsup

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Student Vote
57 seats
SKP 43 - 54%
NDP 14 - 28%
Grn - 0 - 15%
Again, student vote, not results

Also, SKP/SP on the board at 1, and they are using a nice dark green.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Just from these very very early votes, I'd say the NDP will end up with 6-14 seats

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

SP 5
NDP 1

The NDP's seat is one of the far northern ones.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Very early still, but CBC shows Sask Party 16, NDP 5. That NDP total includes Lloydminster. Yeah, that's not lasting.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

SP 24
NDP 8

Even the NDP's commentor is saying the battle is in the cities.

[mileslunn]

I heard Global has already called it.  While maybe a bit early, I think it is pretty much a foregone conclusion as it was going in today that the Saskatchewan Party will win a majority.  Now it comes down to what the vote percentage and seat count will be.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

SP 37
NDP 9

CBC has officially declared that they are "leaning towards" making the call for a SP majority.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

There they go. CBC makes the call 25 minutes in.

[mileslunn]

It looks like the Liberals will get under 1%.  Anybody know what the record low for the Liberals.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

68.3% SP
27.8% NDP
3.1% Grn

Miles: dunno, but I do know it's only the second time the Greens have beat a supposedly "major" party (PEI NDP) though they've beat the BC Tories a number of times too.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

NDP leader trailing in his own riding, 2 of 58 polls,


SP also leading in that one regina seat that I said NDP would win for sure.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

GREENS ON THE BOARD
GREENS ON THE BOARD

[Meeker]

GREENS ON THE BOARD
GREENS ON THE BOARD

It's an entry error; they've reversed the SP and the Greens in a Regina constituency.