2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Belanger was first elected as a Liberal in 1995, yeah. But his vote was a purely personal one; Athabasca had been a safe NDP seat since the 1970s before then.

[Smid]

Oops, sorry! I'll fix this before lunch. I think I saw an 83% SP riding somewhere, but can't remember for certain... I don't have my spreadsheet on my mobile.

Error corrected.

[Colbert]

and record goes to...SP !

64% OMG !


(and liberal 0,5 )

[lilTommy]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/skvotes2011/

Cypress Hill is 82.7... could be the one your looking at Smid?

the highest vote for the NDP, was Athabasca, Buckley Belanger... a former Liberal

[Hash]

The Liberal Party in SK is more like the Libertarian Party, so it's fitting that they performed as they did.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Liberal Party in SK is more like the Libertarian Party, so it's fitting that they performed as they did.

Especially as everyone in Saskatchewan likes them at least a little bit of social democracy.

[Smid]

Totally possible that I've included a mistake somewhere, but my results were a copy and paste from this table. There was one poll left to report in each of four ridings (at least one has subsequently come in, so I'll update my table shortly).

My top results for the parties were:

Saskatchewan Party (>80%)

Martensville
Total Votes: 8,153
SP: 6,779 (83.15%)
NDP: 1,101 (13.5%)
Greens: 273 (3.35%)

Cypress Hills
Total Votes: 6,091
SP: 5,037 (82.7%)
NDP: 763 (12.53%)
Greens: 291 (4.78%)

Wood River
Total Votes: 6,354
SP: 5,194 (81.74%)
NDP: 952 (14.98%)
Greens: 208 (3.27%)

Rosetown-Elrose
Total Votes: 6,929
SP: 5,629 (81.24%)
NDP: 1,105 (15.95%)
Greens: 195 (2.81%)

Swift Current
Total Votes: 7,345
SP: 5,929 (80.72%)
NDP: 1,224 (16.66%)
Greens: 192 (2.61%)


NDP (>50%)

Athabasca
Total Votes: 2,927
SP: 1,021 (34.88%)
NDP: 1,867 (63.79%)
Greens: 39 (1.33%)

Cumberland
Total Votes: 5,148
SP: 1,709 (33.2%)
NDP: 3,265 (63.42%)
Greens: 174 (3.38%)

Regina Elphinstone-Centre
Total Votes: 4,420
SP: 1,721 (38.94%)
NDP: 2,504 (56.65%)
Greens: 195 (4.41%)

Regina Rosemont
Total Votes: 6,449
SP: 2,720 (42.18%)
NDP: 3,538 (54.86%)
Greens: 191 (2.96%)

Saskatoon Massey Place
Total Votes: 7,034
SP: 3,047 (43.32%)
NDP: 3,792 (53.91%)
Greens: 195 (2.77%)

Saskatoon Centre
Total Votes: 5,091
SP: 2,190 (43.02%)
NDP: 2,744 (53.9%)
Greens: 157 (3.08%)

Saskatoon Riversdale
Total Votes: 5,099
SP: 2,331 (45.71%)
NDP: 2,622 (51.42%)
Greens: 146 (2.86%)

The Greens got >5% in Regina Douglas Park (6.7%) and Regina Lakeview (5.1%).

The Sask Liberals got >10% in The Battlefords (11.8%), and below 3% in every other riding in which they ran (8 other ridings).

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

The Liberals did worse in every riding, including Battleford, than last time.

7 out of 8 people where there were Liberal candidates, who voted Liberal last time, voted for another party this time. Of those 7, 1 seems to have voted Green and 6 for the Sask Party. If you compare the Green vote, the extra votes they got over two elections ago, compared to now, is in short the number of people who reject both the NDP and Sask Party

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyways, the final result were 49 9. The final results in 1982 were 55 9. So, technically, this wasn't as bad as 1982.

One weird detail about 1982, of course, was that the NDP lost three of the seats they held in 1982 at the next election, in which they made substantial gains.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

If the NDP ever plans to get back to government in the province they will need to be able to win more than just the cities.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If the NDP ever plans to get back to government in the province they will need to be able to win more than just the cities.

I suspect that they'll also need not to trail by 32pts. Actually the distribution of their vote looks (based on a couple of quick glances) to be fairly healthy from that point of view.

[Verily]

Indeed. The NDP needs to win more than the cities, but not much more. If they won the 9 urban Regina seats, the two suburban Regina seats, 8 of the 9 urban Saskatoon seats (not the really SKP one), both Moose Jaw seats, both Prince Albert seats, Battlefords, and the far two northern seats, they're already at 26 seats, out of a required 30 to win. Then there a bunch of northern seats that, on a even split, are fairly marginal.

The problem for the NDP is that the SKP is very popular, not that they have some sort of trouble. In fact, ultimately this election result should be a relief for the NDP; this was the sort of election where a third party could have swooped in and knocked the NDP off the opposition perch, but that didn't happen. (On the other hand, maybe that's not surprising, since this election result happened because the SKP is very popular rather than because the NDP is very unpopular, which it isn't.)

[lilTommy]

Ahhh i missed Martensville, sorry about that! its one of those never-voted-NDP/CCF-ever-and-never-will ridings... used to be Rosthern, and always went with the Right wing/free market party (Liberal, Socred, PC and now SaskParty)

Your right Sibboleth, The NDP can win government by just winning the cities, see 99 and 03, BUT 91 & 95 were better for the party since they still won a number of rural ridings. Without the Liberals the NDP stand little chance of winning those southern ridings, and it becomes very difficult to win any pure rural ridings.
Theres been all kinds of chatter on Sask blogs about what went wrong with the NDP, you touched on many... Popular Wall and SaskParty... they were lucky to be governing while the economy was doing well, only their first term, etc. BUT the NDP shot themselves in the face with Link. Even if Meili won, i still think the NDP would have lost, probably not as badly but i doubt they would have picked up any seats either. Most blogs see this as a good thing for the NDP since now they have time to rebuild a new brand. Their remaining members are young for the most part including some possible leadership contenders (Cam Broten and Trent Wotherspoon come to mind).

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

It is unhealthy for democracy for parties to be limited to rural or urban ridings, weather or not they are able to win. If exactly 29 ridings are urban and exactly 29 are rural, and the election results are always 30-28, then that is unhealthy for democracy.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, the NDP aren't limited to urban ridings, so there's nowt to worry about from that perspective...

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

The NDP does not have any rural ridings. The only non-urban ridings they hold are barren.

[lilTommy]

That dosen't mean they Can't win them... some ridings the NDP are rather competative, and in good years with strong leaders can indeed win, infact i think it was three rural ridings the NDP vote increased from last election... the only one i'm sure of is Cut Knife-Turtleford; one was most likely Athbasca... can't seem to recall the other one. i could be wrong here.
This year was a washout, where even NDP strongholds were lost so... i don't think these elections are indications that the NDP is only an urban party.

[Хahar 🤔]

The NDP does not have any rural ridings. The only non-urban ridings they hold are barren.

The NDP barely has any ridings, so this election probably isn't a good way to judge that.

[Hatman 🍁]

Does anyone know why the NDP gained in Cut Knife? Surely it's not just because of the collapse of the Liberals.

[MaxQue]

Does anyone know why the NDP gained in Cut Knife? Surely it's not just because of the collapse of the Liberals.

Incumbent retired?

[adma]

First Nations?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The NDP does not have any rural ridings. The only non-urban ridings they hold are barren.

The NDP barely has any ridings, so this election probably isn't a good way to judge that.

It's also a funny definition of rural that doesn't include the two huge northern ridings. Of course we're dealing some sort of pastoral ideal here or something.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

The NDP does not have any rural ridings. The only non-urban ridings they hold are barren.

The NDP barely has any ridings, so this election probably isn't a good way to judge that.

Even when they won 30 seats, their "rural" seats were limited to large rural towns.


Al: No place in Europe matches with the barren far north, same with the USA even outside Alaska. You can not compare rural politics to barren politics, especially when you consider that barren Canada is full of left voting natives

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Al: No place in Europe matches with the barren far north, same with the USA even outside Alaska. You can not compare rural politics to barren politics, especially when you consider that barren Canada is full of left voting natives

No agricultural area in Europe matches with agricultural areas (even densely populated ones) in North America either. So?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

The term "Rural" when relating to politics has certain connotations which do not hold for the ridings I've termed "Barren" here in Canada, and thus when talking about the Rural-Urban divide, adding "Barren" ridings to either is misleading.