2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.

[Smid]

Rural implies agriculture as the major economic driver in the electorate (possibly including food manufacturing and the manufacture and sale of agricultural machines). If agriculture is not dominant throughout those ridings, than perhaps the words "regional" or "remote" might be useful? We often use that over here "rural and regional electorates" - with regional including regional cities (I'm thinking here of Ballarat and Bendigo in Victoria - others as well, but would probably include The Battlefords in a Saskatchewan context). Remote electorates here tend to also be either rural or mining, and generally refer to those electorates in remote Queensland and Western Australia which are allowed to have below-quota enrolments due to being so sparsely populated, such as Mt Isa and Gregory in Queensland.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The term "Rural" when relating to politics has certain connotations which do not hold for the ridings I've termed "Barren" here in Canada, and thus when talking about the Rural-Urban divide, adding "Barren" ridings to either is misleading.

Yes, yes; by 'rural' you actually mean agricultural... but are prepared to add some random parts of the commuter belt (any commuter belt) to the list if the area is pretty enough. In any case, your big point was wrong; not all of the NDP's remaining seats are urban. Besides, it's not that long ago that the Sask Party held no seats in the cities, and now look at where they are. There is certainly a rural/urban divide in Saskatchewan, but it's not as crude as is often assumed.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Rural implies agriculture as the major economic driver in the electorate (possibly including food manufacturing and the manufacture and sale of agricultural machines). If agriculture is not dominant throughout those ridings, than perhaps the words "regional" or "remote" might be useful?

But isn't that a very specific Australian usage that comes (in part) from the emergence of a large agrarian political movement? How common was it before the Country Party turned up? (serious question, actually. This sort of thing is interesting).

[Smid]

Rural implies agriculture as the major economic driver in the electorate (possibly including food manufacturing and the manufacture and sale of agricultural machines). If agriculture is not dominant throughout those ridings, than perhaps the words "regional" or "remote" might be useful?

But isn't that a very specific Australian usage that comes (in part) from the emergence of a large agrarian political movement? How common was it before the Country Party turned up? (serious question, actually. This sort of thing is interesting).

To be honest, I couldn't rightly say how frequently it was used prior to the Country Party. The Country Party came about in around 1920. The Liberal Party (in it's current form: there was a Liberal Party prior to this, and other parties that eventually became the current Liberal Party) first contested a federal election in 1946, and won in 1949. It's difficult to find meaningful vote statistics from prior to 1949 (beyond mere numbers of MPs per party), maybe those numbers are out there, but I haven't got them. I think even 2PP figures from prior to, I don't know - maybe 1980 or so - are estimates because preferences were only distributed in seats where it was necessary, and only until a candidate reached 50% - although I could be mistaken. Suffice to say, I haven't seen/read much commentary from prior to the advent of the Country/National Party so can't give an opinion on whether the term was brought about by this or not. Sorry I can't give a better idea.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_division_of_MacDonnell
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_division_of_Barkly
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_division_of_Stuart
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_division_of_Arnhem
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_division_of_Arafura
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_division_of_Nhulunbuy

I pose the question, why are these "rural" seats voting against the rural party?

[Smid]

Probably, I would suspect, for much the same reason as the rural seats of Athabasca and Cumberland voted for the NDP.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Probably, I would suspect, for much the same reason as the rural seats of Athabasca and Cumberland voted for the NDP.

Very similar reasons anyway. Odd question though; is rurality defined by 'whiteness'? Because that's a pretty dubious road to head down...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Errors possible, as always.

[Smid]

Good work on the map!

Those ridings in the South-East and South-West corners of the province really stand out!

[lilTommy]

Your maps make me smile

Ya the South (SE & SW) have been strong holds of the "free-market" parties in the province... going back to when the Liberals were the party of Saskatchewan, then PC now Sask, many of these ridings have never elected CCF/NDP members... hmm Except Kindersley which used to elect Farmer-Labour (pre-CCF) and then CCF, then NDP up until the 70's, it also elected Liberals until late 70's when the tories took over. There might be others i'm sure

once the rebuilding starts, the main rural/small city targets will be obvious... Cute Knife-Turtleford and Meadow Lake in the NW... light green south of Athabasca. As well as both PA ridings and MJ Wakamow. What would do the NDP some good would be to nominate a rural leader... Talk is already starting that Belanger might make a good interim leader in the meantime.

Those Aussie terms would actually fit in quite well here... Athbasca & Cumberland clearly being Remote ridings... PA/MJ being Regional, 4 ridings being commuterbelt; these terms just aren't used here sadly.

I would say no, rural is not "white" b/c Athbasca and Cumberland are by the looks heavily Aboriginal (who tend to favour the NDP generally)... the farther south you go, of course the more white it gets.

[Nichlemn]

Any (rough) guide to how the votes broke down by federal electorate? In particular, I'm interested in Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River, where apparently the Southern portion is often able to outvote the heavily Aboriginal northern portion.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think most of Meadow Lake and Saskatchewan Rivers are in D-M-CR, along with Cumberland and Athabasca.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Probably, I would suspect, for much the same reason as the rural seats of Athabasca and Cumberland voted for the NDP.

Very similar reasons anyway. Odd question though; is rurality defined by 'whiteness'? Because that's a pretty dubious road to head down...

I argue the opposite, it is not that only rural areas are white, it is that aboriginal areas can not be counted as "rural" because people there vote more based on their background than they do based on where they live.

On the map, I'm a bit surprised that the SW is so solidly Saskatory. I'd have presumed the south as a whole would be more consistent.

[lilTommy]

Probably, I would suspect, for much the same reason as the rural seats of Athabasca and Cumberland voted for the NDP.

Very similar reasons anyway. Odd question though; is rurality defined by 'whiteness'? Because that's a pretty dubious road to head down...

I argue the opposite, it is not that only rural areas are white, it is that aboriginal areas can not be counted as "rural" because people there vote more based on their background than they do based on where they live.

On the map, I'm a bit surprised that the SW is so solidly Saskatory. I'd have presumed the south as a whole would be more consistent.

Also, Saskatoon and Regina both have very sizeable Aboriginal populations....In absence of an Aboriginal candidate, it seems they to tend to favour the NDP and in some areas the Liberals (thinking more Kenora area of Ontario)

What surprised me was that the SE, CE the Saskatoryberals didn't do as well as in the SW, the NDP vote actually held at 20-28% in that region... minus those two US border ridings (Estevan and Weyburn-Big Muddy... fun fact, Tommy Douglas considered one of the fathers of cdn social democracy was elected federally & provicially in Weyburn)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I argue the opposite, it is not that only rural areas are white, it is that aboriginal areas can not be counted as "rural" because people there vote more based on their background than they do based on where they live.

Farmers do the same, I think you'll find.

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Why the surprise? It was always thus.

[Smid]

Nichlemn, here is Earl's earlier post, overlaying federal results and provincial ridings, the link contains the map on his website:

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/11/2011-federal-election-results-by.html

What you've been waiting for, the federal #s over Saskatchewan ridings.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I argue the opposite, it is not that only rural areas are white, it is that aboriginal areas can not be counted as "rural" because people there vote more based on their background than they do based on where they live.

Farmers do the same, I think you'll find.

lol, this really isn't an issue that I want to debate endlessly, so I'll end the debate with a "I'm right your wrong nanner nanner nanner"

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Why the surprise? It was always thus.
[/quote]
I guess I'd presumed the southeast was also just as strong. I admit I'm not as familiar with Sask politics as I am with other provinces.

[adma]

once the rebuilding starts, the main rural/small city targets will be obvious... Cute Knife-Turtleford and Meadow Lake in the NW... light green south of Athabasca. As well as both PA ridings and MJ Wakamow.

How about Yorkton?

[Hatman 🍁]

Nichlemn, here is Earl's earlier post, overlaying federal results and provincial ridings, the link contains the map on his website:

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/11/2011-federal-election-results-by.html

What you've been waiting for, the federal #s over Saskatchewan ridings.

I think he's looking for the opposite, actually. And, we won't know that for a few months. But I can assure you the SP likely won all 14 federal ridings. Churchill River may have been close though.

[Smid]

Yes, re-reading what he wrote, I see you're right.

Almost finished old Quebec. Hopefully have it completed within the week.

[minionofmidas]

Rural implies agriculture as the major economic driver in the electorate

So no rural districts in the US House of Representatives then. Nice to have that cleared up.

[Hatman 🍁]

Does anyone want to make a riding map of Bonaventure for my blog? Or give me the links to the data/maps so I can?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

once the rebuilding starts, the main rural/small city targets will be obvious... Cute Knife-Turtleford and Meadow Lake in the NW... light green south of Athabasca. As well as both PA ridings and MJ Wakamow.

How about Yorkton?

Held up until 2007 (unless I'm remembering wrong) so it would be an odd one to abandon all hope of.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I guess I'd presumed the southeast was also just as strong. I admit I'm not as familiar with Sask politics as I am with other provinces.

Well, parts of the south east are; Estevan was was in the top tier of Sask Party leads (over 60pts) and was once Grant Devine's patch, and there was a collection of PC ridings there even in the 1991 NDP landslide.

[Verily]

Rural implies agriculture as the major economic driver in the electorate

So no rural districts in the US House of Representatives then. Nice to have that cleared up.

Maybe NE-03 and KS-01, but yeah. Point well made.