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Author Topic: 2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.  (Read 38015 times)
Хahar
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« Reply #925 on: January 01, 2012, 08:54:26 pm »
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They're not going to run a full slate, are they?

Of course they are. In due time the Tories might surpass or exceed the Liberals.

In 2009 they only had candidates in 24 out of 85 ridings. It seems far from obvious to me that they would run a full slate this time.
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« Reply #926 on: January 01, 2012, 09:20:38 pm »
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They're not going to run a full slate, are they?

Of course they are. In due time the Tories might surpass or exceed the Liberals.

In 2009 they only had candidates in 24 out of 85 ridings. It seems far from obvious to me that they would run a full slate this time.

If they're polling in the 20s, they wont have any problem finding enough candidates.
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« Reply #927 on: January 02, 2012, 08:07:28 pm »
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Over at Blunt Objects http://blunt-objects.blogspot.com/ the Blog I participate at *cough cough*

No offence, but that guy is a Liberal.... waste of space.

I didn't even see this.
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« Reply #928 on: January 03, 2012, 08:43:38 am »
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They're not going to run a full slate, are they?

Of course they are. In due time the Tories might surpass or exceed the Liberals.

In 2009 they only had candidates in 24 out of 85 ridings. It seems far from obvious to me that they would run a full slate this time.

If they're polling in the 20s, they wont have any problem finding enough candidates.

Agreed, The Liberals are bleeding on the right and with Cummins, who is well known as the Conservative Leader (former Reform/Conservative MP) they are bound to be in contention in some ridings. But whats more likely to happen is that the NDP might... MIGHT see a repeat of the Harcourt victory, winning ridings that seem way out of reach like in the Okangan, North shore Vancouver... etc

Its still pretty early, the point is Dix is not bitting at the Liberals ploys to make him seem like a Radical and extremist leftist that some thought he would be. I'm not counting on any victory just yet, the election is still 2 years or so away.
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« Reply #929 on: January 03, 2012, 09:46:42 am »
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http://www.straight.com/article-574381/vancouver/christy-clark-faces-bigger-risk-bc-voters-if-adrian-dix-stays-front-polls

History might be repeating ala SoCreds 91

I find it interesting that its the right that seems to always fracture or re-orient into a new party or run en-mass to another party. The CCF/NDP has always been the progressive option in BC. Even after 2001 when they won only 2 seats; a new party of progressive didn't emerge or even bolt en-mass to the greens.
any thoughts on why?
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« Reply #930 on: January 03, 2012, 12:34:34 pm »
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Remember there was a period of time that the BC Reform party was at 24% in the polls before they crashed down to 10% in '96

Might not sound like much, but this is the election where the Liberals won the popular vote but the NDP won government - and this is why.

This is why its important to figure out how well the BC Tories will do.

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« Reply #931 on: January 03, 2012, 12:40:43 pm »
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Correction: 2001 is when Reform was at 24%


----
as to not triple post
----

My current "poll averaging baseline" for BC is

NDP - 40%
BCL - 37%
BCC - 13%
GRN - 9%
OTH - 1%
« Last Edit: January 03, 2012, 12:50:12 pm by TheNewTeddy (TEDDY) »Logged

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« Reply #932 on: January 03, 2012, 12:58:17 pm »
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Correction: 2001 is when Reform was at 24%


----
as to not triple post
----

My current "poll averaging baseline" for BC is

NDP - 40%
BCL - 37%
BCC - 13%
GRN - 9%
OTH - 1%

2009 context:
BCL - 45%
NDP - 42%
GRN - 8%
BCC - 2%

So the NDP has held most of its support and so has greens (slight increase) while the big losers are the Liberals.... and well the Cons are taking most of their support. I think anything higher than 10% for the BCC will mean an NDP win.
The corporatist vote might still rally behind the Liberals but i think they lost their right flank already.
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« Reply #933 on: January 03, 2012, 04:39:38 pm »
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http://www.straight.com/article-574381/vancouver/christy-clark-faces-bigger-risk-bc-voters-if-adrian-dix-stays-front-polls

History might be repeating ala SoCreds 91

I find it interesting that its the right that seems to always fracture or re-orient into a new party or run en-mass to another party. The CCF/NDP has always been the progressive option in BC. Even after 2001 when they won only 2 seats; a new party of progressive didn't emerge or even bolt en-mass to the greens.
any thoughts on why?

I'm sure the link to the federal party helps in that regard; while provincial NDPs sometimes hold back the federal party (witness the relatively poor results in Manitoba and Nova Scotia in 2011), the presence of the federal party as a strong political force means that the provincial parties will always have a certain amount of stability.
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« Reply #934 on: January 03, 2012, 05:15:46 pm »
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I always thought the BC Liberal comeback (after what, 40 years?) was impressive. If the BC Conservatives become the main non-NDP Party by the end of the decade, that would be around 70 years since the Liberal-Conservative coalition and 90 years since a Conservative Premier.
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« Reply #935 on: January 03, 2012, 11:02:25 pm »
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Perhaps another Lib-Con coalition, now that'd be interesting.
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« Reply #936 on: January 07, 2012, 04:41:00 am »
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« Reply #937 on: January 07, 2012, 10:11:27 am »
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Part of the fun of the BC election will be trying to figure out where the Cons will win. Same goes with WR in Alberta and CAQ in Quebec though. Oooh!!!!
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« Reply #938 on: January 07, 2012, 10:52:14 am »
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BC election talk! I should have joined in earlier.

The Liberal collapse was all but inevitable after the HST referendum. People would leave the party had the vote failed, and they are leaving the party even though the vote succeeded because of a newfound political freedom. The real beneficiary is the NDP, who doesn't need to be distracted by such an issue anymore.

Cummins is aiming to win two by-elections in Port Moody-Coquitlam and Chilliwack-Hope. So far the party has been his one-man outfit, like Van der Zalm's FightHST organization. Of course more interesting is what happens if they don't win. If they cannot win Chilliwack-Hope - the Fraser Valley rural riding that's supposed to be the angriest ones - then the momentum gets blown away.

At this point the Cons are advocating some wacky, Toronto Sun-level stuff, but they are being supported because they are seen as crusaders against the cronyism of the Liberals - also similar to Van der Zalm. They should've done what the CAQ is doing and wait for the general election, not fielding by-elections but maintaining a media presence.

On the NDP side the result is near-miraculous: the Liberal attack on Dix completely backfired and now he has an even higher approval rating than Clark. I think I predicted this, but I couldn't predict how weak a premier Clark would become after HST. That supposed charisma of hers has vanished under pressure.
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« Reply #939 on: January 07, 2012, 02:37:46 pm »
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If that's meant to be a projection map, remember that things in Delta are tossed off kilter by (a) an independent incumbent, and (b) it being the likely(?) seat for John Cummins...
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« Reply #940 on: January 07, 2012, 04:55:50 pm »
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They should've done what the CAQ is doing and wait for the general election, not fielding by-elections but maintaining a media presence.

CAQ said they will run in the still-to-be-scheduled Argenteuil by-election.
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« Reply #941 on: January 07, 2012, 09:44:10 pm »
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Teddy, if that's meant to be a projection map, how did you derive the riding-level results? The overall picture strikes me as accurate, but some of the riding calls are questionable to me. (Sorry, but I can't quote your post with its photo-- too few posts to include a link).

  • Peace River South, in my judgment, will likely be one of the first Conservative pickups. It's consistently gone for the most conservative "mainstream party" on the ballot (including the SoCreds in 1991 and Reform BC in 1996). The Tories didn't run a candidate there last time, but I'd be shocked if they didn't make a serious play for the riding next year. Going by last election's results seems foolish given the lack of a past candidate. It did vote 59% against the HST in the referendum, while Peace River North just barely squeaked past 50% on that score. I have my doubts that Blair Lekstrom's return to Christy Clark's cabinet has helped him or the party amongst the riding's voters-- this is, after all, the part of the province that, logically, ought to belong to Alberta.
  • Port Coquitlam is a stronghold for Dipper Mike Farnworth, whose moderate profile helps him in the suburbs. I haven't heard anything to the effect that his unsuccessful leadership run has damaged him in the riding, nor have I seen anything suggesting that he's on the cusp of retirement. Barring an NDP meltdown in the polls, it's hard to see him losing his seat, especially to a BCL candidate. Bear in mind that he even managed to break 30% of the vote as a sitting cabinet minister in the NDP nuclear winter of 2001. By contrast, I'd assess neighbouring Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows as much harder for the NDP to hold-- they barely won it last time, and incumbent Michael Sather is stepping down. Given the current political environment, I have to agree with you that the odds favour an NDP hold, but it's much tighter than PoCo for the party.
  • I don't know on what grounds you've prognosticated that the Liberals will lose Surrey-Tynehead, yet gain neighbouring Fleetwood. The loss of Tynehead seems possible, if not probable, but why would the Liberals gain Fleetwood from rather high-profile NDP incumbent Jagrup Brar? Politics is sometimes unpredictable in Surrey, but it's worth mentioning that Adrian Dix appears to have the strong political backing of many powerful East Asian community figures in Surrey. This prediction appears questionable to me.
  • I question the NDP prediction in Cariboo North. Dipper-cum-Independent Bob Simpson seems likely to run again from what I've heard, and he'll eat into the NDP's very slim margin from last time. On balance, I might be inclined to give this prediction to the Conservatives, unless, as I've heard mentioned, the NDP decline to run a candidate in the riding in the hopes that Simpson wins re-election and can be lured back into the caucus with the promise of a cabinet post-- this would beef up their rural representation.
  • Finally, a word about previous comments that John Cummins will likely run in Delta South. The problem with that scenario is that he and Independent incumbent Vicki Huntington would then be competing for the same pool of votes, leading to a possible BCL win. I wonder if Cummins might then decide to run in Delta North against idiosyncratic NDP incumbent Guy Gentner. I think that might,in fact, increase his chances of victory-- Vicki Huntington seems to me a much more appealing political personality than the aging, somewhat curmudgeonly John Cummins. Or, perhaps, Cummins could choose Richmond East (which he used to represent federally). The HST referendum results from all three Richmond ridings suggested deep unhappiness with the city's longstanding BC Liberal hegemony. The wrinkle in that plan is Linda Reid, who's represented the riding for over 20 years. With that in mind, Cummins may wind up in Richmond-Steveston, parts of which he used to represent federally. John Yap seems much less well-established that Reid. Lots of options for Cummins, each of which shakes out differently for the other parties.

All in all, BC 2013 looks to be the most interesting provincial election in Canada since Quebec 2007.
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« Reply #942 on: January 07, 2012, 11:21:04 pm »
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All in all, BC 2013 looks to be the most interesting provincial election in Canada since Quebec 2007.

I think Alberta and Quebec's upcoming races will also be very interesting. Far more than the boring elections of this past Fall.
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« Reply #943 on: January 09, 2012, 09:00:30 am »
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Teddy, if that's meant to be a projection map, how did you derive the riding-level results? The overall picture strikes me as accurate, but some of the riding calls are questionable to me. (Sorry, but I can't quote your post with its photo-- too few posts to include a link).

  • Peace River South, in my judgment, will likely be one of the first Conservative pickups. It's consistently gone for the most conservative "mainstream party" on the ballot (including the SoCreds in 1991 and Reform BC in 1996). The Tories didn't run a candidate there last time, but I'd be shocked if they didn't make a serious play for the riding next year. Going by last election's results seems foolish given the lack of a past candidate. It did vote 59% against the HST in the referendum, while Peace River North just barely squeaked past 50% on that score. I have my doubts that Blair Lekstrom's return to Christy Clark's cabinet has helped him or the party amongst the riding's voters-- this is, after all, the part of the province that, logically, ought to belong to Alberta.
  • Port Coquitlam is a stronghold for Dipper Mike Farnworth, whose moderate profile helps him in the suburbs. I haven't heard anything to the effect that his unsuccessful leadership run has damaged him in the riding, nor have I seen anything suggesting that he's on the cusp of retirement. Barring an NDP meltdown in the polls, it's hard to see him losing his seat, especially to a BCL candidate. Bear in mind that he even managed to break 30% of the vote as a sitting cabinet minister in the NDP nuclear winter of 2001. By contrast, I'd assess neighbouring Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows as much harder for the NDP to hold-- they barely won it last time, and incumbent Michael Sather is stepping down. Given the current political environment, I have to agree with you that the odds favour an NDP hold, but it's much tighter than PoCo for the party.
  • I don't know on what grounds you've prognosticated that the Liberals will lose Surrey-Tynehead, yet gain neighbouring Fleetwood. The loss of Tynehead seems possible, if not probable, but why would the Liberals gain Fleetwood from rather high-profile NDP incumbent Jagrup Brar? Politics is sometimes unpredictable in Surrey, but it's worth mentioning that Adrian Dix appears to have the strong political backing of many powerful East Asian community figures in Surrey. This prediction appears questionable to me.
  • I question the NDP prediction in Cariboo North. Dipper-cum-Independent Bob Simpson seems likely to run again from what I've heard, and he'll eat into the NDP's very slim margin from last time. On balance, I might be inclined to give this prediction to the Conservatives, unless, as I've heard mentioned, the NDP decline to run a candidate in the riding in the hopes that Simpson wins re-election and can be lured back into the caucus with the promise of a cabinet post-- this would beef up their rural representation.
  • Finally, a word about previous comments that John Cummins will likely run in Delta South. The problem with that scenario is that he and Independent incumbent Vicki Huntington would then be competing for the same pool of votes, leading to a possible BCL win. I wonder if Cummins might then decide to run in Delta North against idiosyncratic NDP incumbent Guy Gentner. I think that might,in fact, increase his chances of victory-- Vicki Huntington seems to me a much more appealing political personality than the aging, somewhat curmudgeonly John Cummins. Or, perhaps, Cummins could choose Richmond East (which he used to represent federally). The HST referendum results from all three Richmond ridings suggested deep unhappiness with the city's longstanding BC Liberal hegemony. The wrinkle in that plan is Linda Reid, who's represented the riding for over 20 years. With that in mind, Cummins may wind up in Richmond-Steveston, parts of which he used to represent federally. John Yap seems much less well-established that Reid. Lots of options for Cummins, each of which shakes out differently for the other parties.

All in all, BC 2013 looks to be the most interesting provincial election in Canada since Quebec 2007.

Teddy, i generally agree with canadian1 here... but here's my comments Tongue

-> canadian1, i agree with Teddy that Peace River South will probably, maybe stay Liberal based solely on its MLA Lekstrom... he was an indie, and is now back in the Liberal caucus but he should have stay far away from them or joined the Conservatives. It could have been a Bob Simpson like situation. Lekstrom is rather conservative so that will help him win but it all depends on if he runs (likely) and who the Conservative nominate.

-> Teddy, i aon't agree with Stikine going Tory, the NDP won with a close margin but i don't see the Conservative pulling too much away from the NDP. BCers might now more about the situation, is Donaldson a lame duck MLA? if not, with the NDPs momentum i don't see them losing any ridings in 2013

-> Kootenay East i think will go NDP; If Bennett wins again, i think the Right will be badly split up and the NDP will just take this one. The NDP has more history here then in any Okanagan ridings, and the riding looks like the odd man out in an area dominated by strong NDP ridings like KW, Columbia RIver-Revelstoke and Nelson-Creston. I don't think the NDP had a well known candidate last time, or a strong one me thinks, so the NDP can win here but the Conservatives will need a goo showing, i just don't see if going BCC.

-> i would have North Vancouver-Lonsdale and Vancouver-False Creek as toss-ups; it really depends on who the NDP can nominate is either ridings. Just like Transolini in Port Moody; if the NDP can woo a strong well known or very experienced moderate/progressive in either riding, they might be able to pick them up. North Van has some NDP history(Harcourt 1st term win i believe, Schreck was the MLA) so i wouldn't count it out.
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« Reply #944 on: January 09, 2012, 01:59:24 pm »
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This projection is based on 2009 BCC results, 1996 BCR results, and a basic, regional, blotchy, UNS to add candidates to all ridings, plus various methods to "smooth" all of the above out. It's not anywhere near done, which is why I'd like some feedback.

There might be thoughts about parties doing well or poorly here or there, but if you have any mathematical suggestions, I am open.
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« Reply #945 on: January 09, 2012, 02:05:24 pm »
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This projection is based on 2009 BCC results, 1996 BCR results, and a basic, regional, blotchy, UNS to add candidates to all ridings, plus various methods to "smooth" all of the above out. It's not anywhere near done, which is why I'd like some feedback.

There might be thoughts about parties doing well or poorly here or there, but if you have any mathematical suggestions, I am open.

... I lack the math, so its all conjecture from me Tongue
BUT i did take into account that 1991 might be an election to throw into your calculations as 2013 might be a repeat of what happened then; as you have now a vulnerable liberal party (the socreds in 91) and a new(ish) party catching on to some degree (liberals in 91). In particular when i put NVL, KE and keeping Stikine in the NDP column.
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« Reply #946 on: January 09, 2012, 06:46:03 pm »
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-> canadian1, i agree with Teddy that Peace River South will probably, maybe stay Liberal based solely on its MLA Lekstrom... he was an indie, and is now back in the Liberal caucus but he should have stay far away from them or joined the Conservatives. It could have been a Bob Simpson like situation. Lekstrom is rather conservative so that will help him win but it all depends on if he runs (likely) and who the Conservative nominate.

Thanks for your comments! I'm still not convinced that Lekstrom can carry the Libs to victory. I agree with you that he shouldn't have returned to Christy Clark's caucus, and that's why I think he's so vulnerable. Had he stayed an indie or joined the Tories, I'm sure he would have won, but I fear that returning to the Liberal party has probably made him look greedy and insensitive to local concerns at a time when voter anger is running high. If the Conservatives nominate a weak candidate, Lekstrom can definitely win, but I doubt they will nominate someone second-rate for such a winnable seat.

I also agree that taking a look at 1991 is important in this context, but I would say that those seats won by the SoCreds that year might indicate where the Tories will break through first. To that end, I'm skeptical that the Grits will retain as many seats as Teddy predicts in the Fraser Valley, a "bible belt" area where John Cummins's personal qualities, as well as his party brand, should help him win more than just a few seats. I would say Abbotsford West is fairly likely to stay Liberal on the personal appeal of Mike de Jong, whereas the other two Abbotsford ridings are better takeaways for the Tories.

On the other hand, a Conservative sweep of the Okanagan strikes me as unlikely. In particular, George Abbott, if he seeks re-election in Shuswap, should win handily. His wealth of personal popularity was made clear by his very strong showing in the riding when he ran for party leader-- far stronger than any other candidate in their own seat. I also think that one of the three constituencies including parts of Kelowna will most likely stay with the Liberals, but I couldn't tell you which one is the most likely (I just have a hunch on this score). I also wouldn't rule out the NDP in Boundary-Similkameen, which they've held before and came close to winning last time. That's a riding that will depend on the Tory candidate, as another run by Joe Cardoso would very much help his party.

I could keep quibbling like this, but I think Teddy's map is generally accurate. As the election draws near, candidate nominations will increase in frequency, and this sort of prediction exercise will get easier.
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« Reply #947 on: January 09, 2012, 08:14:27 pm »
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First of all, welcome to the Forum!

I also agree that taking a look at 1991 is important in this context, but I would say that those seats won by the SoCreds that year might indicate where the Tories will break through first. To that end, I'm skeptical that the Grits will retain as many seats as Teddy predicts in the Fraser Valley, a "bible belt" area where John Cummins's personal qualities, as well as his party brand, should help him win more than just a few seats. I would say Abbotsford West is fairly likely to stay Liberal on the personal appeal of Mike de Jong, whereas the other two Abbotsford ridings are better takeaways for the Tories.

I had a similar opinion, however Abbotsford voted "no" in the HST referendum, so the BC Liberals may not be as out-of-favour in that area as they are in some other parts of the province. I mentioned that back in the HST thread:

Earl, I'd been wondering about BC Conservative potential in those ridings and agree with your conclusions. I realise that last election, they did quite well in the Okanagen, but those ridings voted No, so they may hold their noses and still vote BC Liberal, as did the other area I thought the BC Conservatives could focus their resources - around Abbotsford. Since those ridings also voted against the referendum, it may be hard for them to break into those ridings.

On the other hand, a Conservative sweep of the Okanagan strikes me as unlikely. In particular, George Abbott, if he seeks re-election in Shuswap, should win handily. His wealth of personal popularity was made clear by his very strong showing in the riding when he ran for party leader-- far stronger than any other candidate in their own seat. I also think that one of the three constituencies including parts of Kelowna will most likely stay with the Liberals, but I couldn't tell you which one is the most likely (I just have a hunch on this score). I also wouldn't rule out the NDP in Boundary-Similkameen, which they've held before and came close to winning last time. That's a riding that will depend on the Tory candidate, as another run by Joe Cardoso would very much help his party.

To further your comments on the Okanagan, I heard that Stockwell Day was publicly supporting the BC Liberals. Not sure whether or not it's true.
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« Reply #948 on: January 09, 2012, 11:10:21 pm »
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Generally accurate is as close as anyone can get when making guesses about the election Tongue sadly
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« Reply #949 on: February 09, 2012, 02:38:46 pm »
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http://bc2013.com/

Two polls in late Jan/early Feb... all indicating an NDP victory: http://www.theprovince.com/news/Latest+poll+predicts+voters+would+toss+Liberals+election+held+today/6045993/story.html

Forum jan25
BC NDP: 39%
BC Liberals: 26%
BC Conservatives: 22%
BC Greens: 9%

Angus Reid feb1: http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/44326/dix-surpasses-clark-as-best-choice-for-premier-in-british-columbia/

BC NDP 42%
BC Liberal 28%
BC Conservatives 19%
BC Greens 10%

Does that change your predictions Teddy?
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