2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.

[Senator MaxQue]

Don't rush too much for Quebec, we don't know if we will use the old map or the new one (which is done, but not passed by the Assembly yet, if it's ever pass.)

Cheers for the warning!

Any link for the new map? What are the odds of the new map not passing, or of another new map having to be drawn?

Finally, the problem was solved. Well, the Assembly had voted the map. The next step was the official publication of the new limits by the Boundary Commission. The problem was than the commission needs 3 commissionners and only had 2. Opponents to the new map and tractations to not cut seats in rural areas delayed the nomination of the third one for almost a year.

Finally, he was nominated on October 5. The map should be officially publied in the Official Gazette today and it will apply 3 months after the date of publication.

Except if government decides to call Bill 19 on the floor before the law applies. That would freeze the process.
The proposed map deletes 3 rural ridings and creates 3 suburban ridngs. Bill 19 is proposing to add 3 seats in the Assembly, which means than the rural seats aren't deleted while the other seats are created.

http://www2.electionsquebec.qc.ca/lacartechange/en/index.asp
Here is the website, in English. Maps are avaliable in different formats.

[lilTommy]

In addition to Quebec, I suspect Alberta will have an election next year.  Considering Redford is a Red Tory, it will be interesting to see if this benefits the WRA or are the Liberals or NDP able to come up the middle in several ridings.  Likewise she is from Calgary and much of Ed Stelmach's waning popularity was due to the fact many in Calgary didn't like the idea of having an Edmonton premier so it is not as simple as a left vs. right.  British Columbia probably won't go to the polls until 2013, but possibly sooner.  In the case of Quebec, I wouldn't be surprised if they have one next year especially considering the infighting in the Parti Quebecois and the fact neither the ADQ, QS, or the proprosed new right of centre alternative party have had enough time to gain any traction.  If Charest waits too long one of those could gain traction.

Part way through base maps for Alberta and Quebec (Alberta had a redistribution last year, after I'd prepared base maps for it). Quebec's looking pretty close to finished, but Alberta's still a little way's off. I figure if I can get them both pretty near done, then if either calls an election, I can focus on completing that province's maps.

Since Alberta had its redistribution, might someone else like to attempt to work out some notional margins? It could be useful in looking at areas which had the greatest swings to Wild Rose (assuming there actually are swings to Wild Rose).

Your point about the Liberals and NDP potentially benefiting is interesting. On the one hand some of their supporters may wish to back Redford (either because they like her positions, or because they'd rather see a PC Government, rather than a WRA Government), but on the other hand, with WRA and PC splitting the right-of-centre vote, there are probably opportunities for the Liberals and NDP, thus potentially dissuading voters from voting PC just to keep out Wild Rose. I think it's going to be a very, very interesting election.

Last election results for Alberta are in the gallery (and obviously based on old boundaries).

In regards to Alberta, It looks like the NDP will benefit the most, the last poll published showed the NDP with some real momentum...
http://www.calgaryherald.com/technology/Alison+Redford+inherits+lead+rivals+poll/5530395/story.html
PC: 48 (down from 52.7 in 2008)
NDP: 16.3 (up from 8.5)
Wildrose: 16.1 (up from 6.
Liberal: 13.4 (down from 26.4)
Alberta party: 3.1

http://www.lethbridgecollege.ca/sites/default/files/imce/about-us/applied-research/csrl/Alberta_Provincial_Vote_Intention_Fall_2011_0.pdf
So Redford will probably draw support from the Liberals, mostly in Calgary as mentioned already. Wildrose could very well eat away many conservative rural tory ridings if Redfrod dosen't play her cards right and placate the extreme side. In Edmonton the NDP is second! at 21.5%... this is definelty a target for the party, with the Wildrose and Liberals in play, that could mean seats fall to the NDP by small margins. Oddly enough the NDP are also second in southern alberta at 19.5% (one of the Lethbridge ridings, i think West is being touted as a target)
Alberta is looking something like a weird NFLD to me, almost a sure PC win, but who will be the opposition? with the Liberals collapse? will the NDP have a surge? will Wildrose blossom (HA! sorry about that). Right now i'm still focusing on SASK (i still have faith!) but Alberta looks to be exciting

[Hatman]

Smid, don't stop making that Quebec map! I want to have it on my provincial elections page! Cheers.

[Smid]

Smid, don't stop making that Quebec map! I want to have it on my provincial elections page! Cheers.

I'll keep going with it - I've put in too many hours to abandon it!

I'm surprised the PC Party is doing so well in Alberta (relative to Wild Rose).

[Jens]

What are the indications in Saskatchewan? Any change for NDP beating Sask Party?

[Sibboleth]

What are the indications in Saskatchewan? Any change for NDP beating Sask Party?

Alas, no. Looks more likely to be 1982 all over again.

[Jens]

What are the indications in Saskatchewan? Any change for NDP beating Sask Party?

Alas, no. Looks more likely to be 1982 all over again.

Bad, very bad. Any reason why?

[Sibboleth]

What are the indications in Saskatchewan? Any change for NDP beating Sask Party?

Alas, no. Looks more likely to be 1982 all over again.

Bad, very bad. Any reason why?

Popular Premier, NDP leader is unpopular (and, worse, is called Dwain), economy is doing well.

[lilTommy]

What are the indications in Saskatchewan? Any change for NDP beating Sask Party?

Alas, no. Looks more likely to be 1982 all over again.

Bad, very bad. Any reason why?

Popular Premier, NDP leader is unpopular (and, worse, is called Dwain), economy is doing well.

Its such a shame too, the NDP have been out with policies each day, the platform was released and full costed... while the SP is relatively quiet on the policy side other then mimicking the federal tories tax tweaks. they have done nothing but attach Link (Lingenfelter... ala Harper vs Iggy style).. which struck me as pretty dumb headed since they had a good 20point lead last poll. The SaskParty has a horrible record, they had 2 of the 4 year in deficit and cant even cost anything (made some news when they criticized the NDP health plan and grossly over stated the cost). What made me laugh was Wall said the NDP platform would lead to 80's style deficit... which is funny since in the 80's SASK was led by the Devine tories and Wall worked for that gov't!

I'm hoping the NDP can save the sink, the Liberals aren't running (Good for the NDP i hope...ok they have 6 candidates i think) but the Greens are... not sure how the SASKgreens are but they seem to be on the progressive side, which is not a great sign but the former Green leader is now working for the NDP so.

There have been no polls out, which i think the NDP are happy about... but its hard to gage if this is going to be a cakewalk for the SaskParty... if it was why all the attacking? why not just coast... I've heard two rumours 1) SP internal polling is showing some NDP strength and 2) the SP is just evil and want to obliterate the NDP ala 82.

[lilTommy]

Sorry forgot to mention, Link has a new TV ad out... very Dalton-esk... he leads with "i know I'm not popular" meh, might work for him, hes definitely the under dog... hes also as charismatic as a stalk of wheat (tried to make it a prairie reference)

[canadian1]

The SaskParty has a horrible record, they had 2 of the 4 year in deficit

Against the background of the current Canadian economic situation, I don't see how this could ever be considered a "horrible record". I'm not a fan of the Saskatchewan Party's policies, but there's no denying that the last 4 years have been a success story for Saskatchewan's economy. After years of terrible population losses, people are moving there in droves for jobs (in the booming natural resource sector).

2) the SP is just evil and want to obliterate the NDP ala 82.

How is this "evil"? It's essentially the long-term goal of every single political party in the world to eliminate their opposition. The province seems to be turning its back on the party anyway (viz. the federal election results, where the NDP even lost most of the Saskatoon polls that they used to win handily).

[lilTommy]

The SaskParty has a horrible record, they had 2 of the 4 year in deficit

Against the background of the current Canadian economic situation, I don't see how this could ever be considered a "horrible record". I'm not a fan of the Saskatchewan Party's policies, but there's no denying that the last 4 years have been a success story for Saskatchewan's economy. After years of terrible population losses, people are moving there in droves for jobs (in the booming natural resource sector).

2) the SP is just evil and want to obliterate the NDP ala 82.

How is this "evil"? It's essentially the long-term goal of every single political party in the world to eliminate their opposition. The province seems to be turning its back on the party anyway (viz. the federal election results, where the NDP even lost most of the Saskatoon polls that they used to win handily).

Horrible might have been harsh, BUT when you have a 50/50 record and can't even count i'd say thats pretty horrible... and you can thank the int'l commodities market/demands for the success in SASK, and ofcourse a government that inherited a balanced budget. The NDP were turfed from what i see for no other reason then "you've been in power too long" and if the party is stale that can be a good thing. The NDP has its problems and really choose the wrong leader... but the SP is a terrible alternative

umm in may the SASK NDP vote grew from 25% to 32%... now thats pretty good (not great) growth. I don't know about specific polls but in Saskatoon the NDP was within 500 votes of winning Rosetown-Biggar and about 700 in Palliser... the Liberal vote collapsed and both the NDP and tories benefited.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saskatchewan_general_election,_1982

Since it's such a popular topic!

[Sibboleth]

Federal NDP polled their best share in Saskatchewan since 1988 earlier this year; as well all know the only reason why this didn't result in any seats was because of the boundaries which (cont. p. 384). If the provincial party polls as well, they'll be happy.

Wow. Been a long time since that's been true.

Still, they'll be back. It isn't as though there's any other alternative. Might take a while though.

[The Head Beagle]

Yeah, I vote for the emphasis on "it'll take awhile".

The SP got in just on the cusp of the commodities boom, and they've just coasted along cutting taxes without cutting services because of the increased revenues.

I mean, the government still owns the phone company and has a monopoly on car insurance. We're not exactly in Paul Ryan territory.

[Sibboleth]

[lilTommy]

Ok this is the first frackin' poll i've seen all Sask election

http://www.insightrix.com/?action=d7_article_viewer_view_article&Join_ID=353893

SP - 60%
NDP - 33%

Looks bad, but since 2009 the NDP have gained 10points and the SaskParty is down 6... the NDP is the only party with upward (ok slow as hell but still) momentum, while the SaskParty is pretty flat.
Now, it would be great to see regional numbers since the SaskParty pretty much wins the rural seats while the NDP wins in the cities (Regina & Saskatoon, smaller ones Prince Albert and Moose Jaw). Could this be a MAN-style repeat? in reverse, where the NDP (basically at the same 2007 level) holds on and the leg stays at 20NDP and 38SP. This is my hope, there might be NDP pick ups IF they can pull the vote in those half dozen urban seats the SP holds

Some good news: Almost half support the NDP's main proposal of a Potash royalty review. That seems to be playing pretty well in the publics mind right now.
Ok news: Lingefelter didn't bomb the debate... he was slow and started out stiff but the second half he was pretty dominent. But still hes clearly not going to win this so the NDP better keep riding those policies...

Oh the Liberals are dead, only 2.8% and i think 9 candidates... the greens have a full slate of 58 but are only at 3%... this is good news for the NDP in some ways they don't have to worry about the Greens eating their left flank too much. The focus needs to be to win over moderate "would-have-voted-liberal" voters.

[Sibboleth]

The last published poll was 63/26, so this is a significant improvement, even if it's still a hammering. That would be a swing of about 6.5pts. Has their been a boundary review since then?

Presuming not... in 2007 the NDP won four seats with margins of under 7pts. We can probably assume that these are gone. They won five with margins between 7pts and 16pts. We can probably assume that (if this poll is accurate) that these will be fairly tight, one way or another. That leaves eleven that ought to be safe enough. So we might put a ceiling of 16 and a floor of 11. Or something like that. I've probably made a basic error or something somewhere.

[lilTommy]

Redistribution happened for the 2003 election by the looks of things, might be in need for one next election... somewhere here i think Teddy rolled over the rules for that. Sask is still a small province i think they just broke the 1M mark.

Sorry, looks like in 2007 the vote was 50% SP and 37%NDP... so i think your on the right track with a 11floor and 16 or so ceiling.

BUT the Liberal vote is going to be the X factor here, 9% in 2007, so that 6% or so looks to have gone all to the Saskies, if the NDP can continue to try and push that gap they might end up around the 18-23 mark (yes i don't discount pickups in the cities here).

Its expected to be a cake walk for Wall, that could be his downfall. Right now, there is very little push for Saskies to go and vote, while NDP's NEED to vote just to save the kitchen sink... if the NDP gets their vote out could lead to some close pick ups and saves (im being optimistic here again )

[Hatman]

Ive been having internet problems, but I'll try and get a prediction up tonight or at some point.

[Hatman]

Forum Research did a poll that has the SP at 66%, and the NDP at 30%, so it`s not such the bright spot we were hoping for. In total, that`s a 11% swing from the last election!

[Hatman]

Krago sent me the transposed results of the federal election for Saskatchewan.  The NDP would have won 12 seats on that map. Note that the provincial party is polling around what they got in the federal election. Also note that the SP is polling much higher than the Conservatives. The Liberals would have won 2 seats. Interesting to note, the provincial Liberals are only running a candidate in one of those seats. The best NDP seats were actually Cumberland and Athabasca, not any of the urban seats.

There appears to be no concentration of Green support, their highest ridings were at 4%.

[Hatman]

here's my prediction: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/10/saskatchewan-2011-provincial-election.html

[Sibboleth]

Could you post those transposed results here?

[Hatman]

can't seem to copy and paste the spreadsheet. I'll make a map at some point.