2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.

[Sibboleth]

SP now ahead in Fairview. Wakamow is called for them

Prince Albert North still pretty close, still a decent-ish amount left. Though probably gone as well.

[mileslunn]

It looks like the NDP leader couldn't even win his own seat.  Also using federal ridings, it appears the NDP's wins in Saskatoon were in the Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar and for Regina in Palliser.  Although my guess is using the federal boundaries it would have been a clean sweep for the Saskatchewan Party.  They also took all ridings in Ralph Goodale's riding.  Considering the Liberals weren't running in his area, I wonder which party he voted for?

[Hatman]

Lingenfelter's seat was the best riding for Ralph Goodale.

[mileslunn]

Lingenfelter's seat was the best riding for Ralph Goodale.

  I suspect the Tories would have taken that one had Ralph Goodale not run, mind you the NDP would have made it more competitive.  Considering the Liberals got in single digits in every other Saskatchewan riding, I suspect most were Ralph Goodale votes, not Liberal votes and he appeals to people on both sides of the spectrum.

[Hatman]

I suppose you didn't see this,

[Sibboleth]

Remarkably similar to the general pattern of this night, actually. Anyone heard owt about turnout?

[mileslunn]

Similiar, although it looks like the NDP provincially is doing even worse, although quite similiar.  I should note in Ontario the results closely corresponded with the 2006 federal election results in Ontario albeit quite different than recent federal.  The NDP was popular vote was not far off their federal counterparts, but the Saskatchewan Party got more or less what the Conservatives + Liberals combined got last May.

[The Head Beagle]

So basically, the NDP is reduced to:

- the core working-class areas of west side Saskatoon and north-central Regina (generally by about 7-15 though approaching 20 in R.E.C. which is all around pretty dodgy and undergoing rapid demographic change with the old-timers moving out and young Aboriginals moving in from economically dire reserves)
- the two northern Aboriginal seats (by a lot)
- the U of S/what-Americans-would-call-"white-liberal" seat (Nutana) (by about 7-8)

and maybe, barely, either of two ridings where some of their core constituency meets generic suburbia.

Obviously exceedingly poor, but not quite in B.C. 2001 "what, they lost that riding?" territory. Although southeast Regina is kind of embarrassing considering how public-sector the Regina middle class is (and the leader running there).

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Link just gave one of the worst concession speeches I heard - and I heard Alward's speech in Newfoundland.

Be basically said "our platform was rejected, but it was right" between the lines: "the voters were wrong"

[Hatman]

Actually, in regards to Wascana, don't people say that seat would be NDP if it weren't for Ralph? I'd have to disagree with them, actually, now looking at how the NDP brand isn't as strong there.

[Sibboleth]

So basically, the NDP is reduced to:

- the core working-class areas of west side Saskatoon and north-central Regina (generally by about 7-15 though approaching 20 in R.E.C. which is all around pretty dodgy and undergoing rapid demographic change with the old-timers moving out and young Aboriginals moving in from economically dire reserves)
- the two northern Aboriginal seats (by a lot)
- the U of S/what-Americans-would-call-"white-liberal" seat (Nutana) (by about 7-8)

and maybe, barely, either of two ridings where some of their core constituency meets generic suburbia.

Obviously exceedingly poor, but not quite in B.C. 2001 "what, they lost that riding?" territory. Although southeast Regina is kind of embarrassing considering how public-sector the Regina middle class is (and the leader running there).

Yeah, that the patterns are that clear is very interesting. I was half expecting something almost random in who was left standing (ala 1982), but if anything the opposite seems to have been the case.

[mileslunn]

Actually, in regards to Wascana, don't people say that seat would be NDP if it weren't for Ralph? I'd have to disagree with them, actually, now looking at how the NDP brand isn't as strong there.

 Tough to say, but the Tories were only four points off winning this past May, while the NDP was close to 20 points behind, so unless 80% of Ralph Goodale's personal votes were NDP supporters, I believe the Tories would have taken it.  Maybe back in 2004 if would have been that way in a two way race (lets remember the Liberals were much stronger in Saskatchewan back then), but not 2011.  While the landslide has a lot to do with Wall's personal popularity, I think as Saskatchewan's economy becomes more like Alberta's it shouldn't be too big a surprise if its voting patterns start to become more like Alberta's.  Lets remember even though the NDP deserves a lot of credit for turning the province around in the 90s, the problem is policies on the left have less appeal when you are a have province as opposed to a have not.  In some ways the NDP has become of victim of its own success.

[Sibboleth]

Anyway, it's been a long time since the provincial NDP did worse than the federal NDP in Saskatchewan. Early 1980s?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Remember that Devine killed even the federal PC party, and that it was during this period that rural voters stopped voting NDP

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

[Smid]

Anyone heard owt about turnout?

I don't have enrolment figures at close of the rolls, but could get roughly accurate turnout figures (minus rejected ballots, all dozen or so of them that won't really make a difference to turnout in most ridings) if someone has access to enrolments.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Turnout was at 60-65 they just said, compared to something like 75 last time

[Sibboleth]

Turnout was at 60-65 they just said, compared to something like 75 last time

Makes sense.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Anyway I need sleep. tah

[Hatman]

Turnout was at 60-65 they just said, compared to something like 75 last time

Wow, not bad. I was expecting really low turnout. Although, if it's traditionally that high, than I guess that's pretty bad.

[Smid]

2011 Saskatchewan Provincial Election Results Map



Some of the >75% ridings are actually >80%, but I didn't change the scale, so it can be compared better to the 2007 map.


For comparison,

2007 Saskatchewan Provincial Election Results Map




Note that four polls remain to report (one per riding) in:
Last Mountain - Touchwood
Moosomin
Regina Lakeview
Weyburn - Big Muddy

[Hatman]

Wow, the NDP vote went up in Athabasca. Anyone else know where that happened?

[Smid]

Wow, the NDP vote went up in Athabasca. Anyone else know where that happened?

See also Regina Lakeview, Regina Rosemount and Regina South, also Saskatoon Meewasin and Cut Knife - Turtleford.

In most cases, there was a collapse in the Liberal vote - either because there was no candidate, or because the Liberal vote actually did collapse. Generally, it seems that the Sask Party was the greater beneficiary, but in some ridings, the NDP vote also rose. I've emailed you my swing table.

[Nichlemn]

What was the SP's strongest seat?

[lilTommy]

Smid, the 2011 Map is wrong, you have the NDP winning Regina Coronation Park and CBC shows the SaskParty winning it... saddly. Jamie Garcia would have been a bright star for the NDP, young, ethnic and attractive (we all know looks play a part, more so for women but Jamies pretty darn cute so)

Anyway... i was only right in saying the NDP would lose their small town seats (MJ, PA, TB) but i thought they would hold more in the cities... The vote was pretty much on par with the polls, 64/31 which is the middle for the SP ( saw as high as 66, low as 60) and same for the NDP, more on the higher side (high as 34, low as 24). The NDP came close in some... about 5% in Fairview, 4% in MJ Wakamow and PA Northcote. If i'm not wrong, in Athabasca, Belanger used to be a Liberal so he might have attracted back that support. I think winning 10 seats would have been a moral boost to them but this is worse that 82 for the NDP, who have 9 seats (same at 82, but 6% points lower)
I'm actually happy Link lost, makes it much easier to proceed with a leadership race, Interestingly no one from the last leadership race is an MLA (Higgins, Link, Pederson all lost, Meili didn't run)

The best SP seat looks to be Cypress Hill... 82.7% (WTF!) The actually got 74% in Saskatoon Silver Springs! They seem to reach the 70% and even 80% easily in the South, South east of the province. The farther north you go the more you see the SP victories in the 60%.